EURJPY POTENTIAL PROGRESS FORMATION IN PROGRESSWe can see that the pair has turned bullish after a short correction. We have also identified certain patterns which further
support our bullish basis. These have been listed below:
1: The pair is in a strong uptrend as the price is making new highs
2: Trendline breakout
3: Pennant pattern breakout
We will wait for the price to correct on the lower time frames after the trendline breakout then only can we start to look for
reasons to enter long. We do not take trades with less than 1 to 3 risk rewards. If we get stopped out , we follow our trading plan as
we wait for a new setup to form. We only take one entry per setup and do re-enter when stopped out as we see this as revenge/over-trading.
Eurjpyforecast
EURJPY - FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL VIEW#EURJPY
- Currently there is an UP SIDE BIAS for EURJPY. XXXJPY CURRENCIES BUY very fast in previous weeks with JPY WEAK AFTER BOJ MEETING. Somehow it is being RECOVERED again. MARKET RISK is still ON. VIX is going DOWN, XXXJPY CURRENCIES SHOULD BE BUY FAST NOW.
- Some NEWS coming for the USD will help strengthen the EURO. Because the reason for that is because the NEWS related to USD is quite weak and USD has got a weak SENTIMENT. But in the future, if the RATE HIKE SENTIMENT is PRICED by the ECB, EURO may be BUY more.
EURJPY can be SELL at 145.95 level before BUY. After that you can BUY at 152.98 LEVEL. If the MAIN STRUCTURES BREAK somehow, EURJPY price can definitely be BUY at 152.98 LEVELS.
EURJPY 21May2023last week I gave a hint that when the blue line is broken by the price then most likely the bulls are back on track. Next week is likely to be bullish by looking at the wave a-b-c notation that has been formed, seeing also the bullish slope of around 45 degrees is also an indication of a strong bullish entry.
EurJpy- Short term and medium term trading opportunitiesA few days ago I've written that EurJpy could resume its up move.
Indeed, after the confirmation of 146.50 as strong support, the pair started to rise and reached 149.50.
At this moment bulls look tired and in need of a correction, and this could provide short-term traders the opportunity to trade on the sell side.
As long as 149.50 is intact there are high chances of a drop and the pair could dive 100+ pips.
On the other hand, for swing traders, this correction could be an opportunity to join the long term trend at a better price and target, as explained in my previous analysis, 151 recent high.
EURJPY: Entry for seller!Fundamental Overview
The market is increasingly betting on a weaker USD/JPY. This prediction is based on two main factors - the likelihood of a significant reduction in Fed interest rates and concerns regarding the stability of the US financial system. Additionally, there is the unpredictability of a potential change in BoJ policy, which could significantly impact the value of the yen. We anticipate that at the upcoming BoJ meeting on June 16th, the yield curve target may be shortened from 10-year to 5-year JGB yields, resulting in a significant increase in 10-year JGB yields and a corresponding strengthening of the yen.
EURJPY Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
EUR/JPY Price Analysis:155-165STRATEGY STRONG BUY
EUR/JPY climbs sharply to 2023 past 149.00
The underlying strong upside momentum in the cross appears unchallenged for the time being. Against that, the continuation of the upward bias should challenge the key 150.00 barrier in the relatively short term.
So far, further upside looks favoured while the cross trades above the 200-day SMA, today at 142.43.
Japan Housing Starts Fall Less than Estimated
Japanese Shares Jump After BOJ Decision
Japanese Yen Weakens After BOJ Decision
Bank of Japan Holds Rates, Tweaks Forward Guidance
Tokyo Core Inflation Accelerates in April
Japan Retail Sales Grow More than Expected
Japan Industrial Output Growth Tops Estimates
Japan Jobless Rate Rises to 14-Month High
Japan Leading Economic Index Revised Upward
Japan Coincident Index Revised Downward
BIG PICTURE BEARISH
BoJ not changing policy, intensified interest rate differential game
Japan is still a basket case
Japan inflation at multi-year highs, while BoJ stuck in denial
BoJ still unlikely to change course
BoJ keeps to the dovish script
FX intervention unlikely to prevent yen weakness
The BoJ cannot defend the yen and is unlikely to want to
Increasing divergence between a dovish BoJ and tighter Fed monetary policy
BoJ intervention unlikely to halt yen’s slide
Only intervention from Japanese officials can relieve the yen
BIG PICTURE BULLISH
The Bank of Japan can add to the yen’s appeal
The likelihood of a BoJ policy shift should accelerate Yen gains
Yen to outperform as tightening cycles eventually come to an end and central banks turn to easing
Further policy adjustments from the BoJ
BoJ will review the side effects of its ultra-loose monetary policy
BoJ's policy tweak consistent with and supportive of Yen outperformance
A change at the helm of the BoJ puts JPY in pole position for 2023
Japan's economy and monetary policy to remain reasonably steady going forward
Yen seen as particularly sensitive to any swings in growth and monetary policy trends
BoJ reluctance to ease may put the yen on top
EURJPY shorts on Global Macro expectations The reasons that back my case are simple.
First of all, we need to take into consideration that Yen is a high risk off asset, with yen longs taking place whenever there is a big uncertainty in the world, or a black swan event unfolding.
If you believe that a big crisis is yet about to be seen then you need to consider shorting EURJPY , I personally do for the reasons below.
Yen Long Factors
-New Governor UEDA taking head and within the next meeting of 28th of April along with market expectations Yen is expected to appreciate on expectations that the bank will widen the Yield curve band or even
will take it off. Any positive tone on Interest rates will be considered at the meeting as well.
-Sharp decreases in headline inflation such as the one from 6 down to 5% are signs of a big incoming crisis. Usually, when we run into recession, inflation is drastically moving to the downside, this drugs US Yields lower on expectations for more rate cuts taking place from FED this year.
-U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism showing a bleak picture. Even though this indicator is considered a 1-star indicator from calendar news, it is the omen of the US unemployment rates and Jobless claims climbing up while US NFP and Jolts data moving lower. So on the aggregate, it is the first sign before US Labor data start showing a very bad picture.
EUR Short Factors
-EUR Large Speculators are overbought on EUR across the board and this shows that if and when they are about to unfold their positions we are going to see a big short playing on EURO , it just needs a big catalyst to take place for them to follow through.
EURJPY Trading Plan - 27/April/2023Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect EURJPY to go Down after finishing the correction.
Look for your SELL setups.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea.
EURJPY top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.