EURO-USD
Trend is changingAt the moment, we are seeing that the pair found support and strongly pushed off from the level of 1.1320 and easily overcomes the resistance levels.
The dollar index continues to decline, and therefore the trend is changing for the pair. We believe that now is a good moment to enter long positions.
Therefore, we advise you to look for points to enter the market for long positions. We assume that the next level will be at the mark of 1.1550.
The pair is consolidatingAt the moment, we observe that the price remains under the mark of 1.1390 and does not demonstrate activity. Technical indicators are multidirectional and the price is in the corridor. We believe that in case of overcoming the mark of 1.1390, the pair will go to the levels of 1.1440 and 1.1490. Otherwise, local minima around 1.1330 and 1.1305 will be updated again.
Positioning for FED hikes September [detailed macro post]We closed our latest EURUSD buy idea after failing to clear final targets before the end of today, well done to all those on the buy side who made a few...
=> Here we are now starting to position for the FED hikes tomorrow;
As per today's odds (94.4%) markets are trading a done deal tomorrow .
The US is structurally very strong with factors like lower tax rates in US is still attracting capital, reserve currency, upside of 2020 administration being more frugal.. etc.. providing an ever lasting pull factor, whilst on the other side of the coin we've got a twin deficit currency which is broadly viewed in the backstreets of Westminster as overvalued because of US protectionism and the fact fund managers in Europe will start adding exposure to the EZ and EUR once yields tick above zero.
On the monetary side US rates are far higher than global rates. A divergence in FED members opinion on yield inversion, coupled with odds of a faster paced normalisation from the ECB in 2019 started to tick higher last week and a BOJ widening the yield band are weighting against the dollar on this one. EM crisis is in a bad shape via rate differentials, so what we are tracking here is any change in language from "accommodative" towards concerns over trade tensions or EM struggle (markets are not expecting this) as this will catch markets on the wrong side and short circuit all those pricing in a December hike as it gets pulled off the menu.
Inflation is on track and unemployment is still falling so we have nothing to see on this front. Here expecting a slightly hawkish Powell and selling rallys towards 1.176xx. We will be covering this event live in the telegram with some key updates coming on the close today.
Technical levels here we are still within the June ECB range so we are placing stops out of reach here to protect against any spikes tomorrow with targets at the bottom of the range (1.18xx - 1.15xx). A simple flow trading the inside of the range.
GL all....
EURGBP(FIBER) LONGS FOR 03/07/2018I am currently bullish on the higher timeframes for fiber as i think it needs a price correction before the longer term bearish phase continues. Price will seek liquidity as i have marked on the 4hour time frames. Price is currently on its was back to origin(a key supply zone) and a key psychological level 1.5800
Short the retracement of the recent Euro Weakness move.Shorting the retracement of the recent Euro Weakness move with both a Euro Bearish bias and a US Dollar Bullish Bias.
Price alert set at 1.1500 in case I'm not near the charts. May be a good idea for you, too.
Target and Stop Loss will be given if the trade comes close to playing out.
EUR/USD daily overviewThe previously observable dominant descending patterns on the EUR/USD chart were removed on Tuesday, as the surging momentum of the rate has managed to break both of them.
Meanwhile, the rate continues to surge in the borders of a medium scale ascending pattern, which, together with the 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages, has provided the rate with the needed support. Namely, the rate has surged up to the resistance of a monthly pivot point near the 1.1690 level.
On Tuesday, the rate was consolidating its previous gains and waiting for the 55 and 100-hour SMAs to catch up before continuing the surge.