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EURO-USD

Stumbling the EURUSD legs by the dayKEEPING THINGS SIMPLE ON THE EURUSD / UPDATE (1 day, log scale) - tops have been tested, but could not get broken (even despite heavy volume) - we're ranging, now down again - note that the attempt to break the downward resistance line seems to hae failed - RSI is showing no bullish signs, though it is holding up. It broke the resistance line, now a retest. However, it's in neutral mode, and did not produce an overbought reading on the most recent leg. That serves as a warning: there's certainly not an uptrend. At least not yet. So instead, expect the downward pressure from the weekly/monthly to take over again, keeping EUR USD in the trading range. In all: re-test of 1.08-ish is the likely scenario. Again. Can it then hold, or will the higher time frames finally push it through there? Again, patience is needed.
Short
by JohnLaw
EURUSD: Looking for Shorts at this decision pointIf you saw my post yesterday then you know that I’ve been waiting for a potential short on this pair. (Here’s the video link explaining the trade www.youtube.com) My initial killzone was pretty large and after a brief test of the bottom levels of it, price has rallied back to the top providing me with the opportunity that I was waiting for. The reason I didn’t enter the trade yesterday was strictly due to the fact that I wouldn’t get the risk reward that I wanted. Risk reward will still be difficult at this level because of how close the structure levels are but if I’m able to get the entry that I want, my stops may be short enough to make it work. The London session extension gave us another equal measured move back into structure looking left and some Fibonacci extensions. The bulls gave a nice test of the highs and were beaten back after the first attempt to break through. As I type I’m watching this on the 15 minute chart waiting for a reason to enter, all depending on how this current candle completes. For targets I’ll be looking for a move back down into our previous new structure highs, and certainly looking to aggressively manage this one during my live trading room hours. We’ll see how this one pans out “Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan” Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered Click Here for 20+ hours of FREE Training tradeempowered.com Click the link below to subscribe for more FOREX TRADING videos www.youtube.com Facebook: www.facebook.com Twitter: twitter.com
Short
by Akil_Stokes
24
EURUSD short opportunityThe dollar is holding well so far this week thanks to the solid US employment data published Friday on top of the Chinese yuan devaluation today. While we see the greenback rallying against Asian FX and commodity currencies right now, the euro is holding. I still anticipate renewed buying pressure on the dollar over the medium term and am interested in a short opportunity on the EUR/USD at the $1.11 level (trend line resistance). Technically speaking, a reversal below this level would probably see prices fall back to $1.08. If this does indeed happen, I would expect this support to break, at which point I would target $1.05 (and hopefully new year lows by September). A stop above $1.115 with a entry at around $1.1100-20 will allow for a risk/reward ratio greater than 1:5.
Short
by ABRAK75
4
EURUSD: Potential Bullish Gartley Pattern w/ Great Risk v RewardNot a lot on my radar this morning which is perfect seeing how Monday’s are typically days where I let the markets wake up after the weekend. One pair that I’ve been continuing to watch closely has been the EURUSD which has provided a lot of opportunity over the past month or so. The chart before you shows a potential bullish Gartley pattern completing extremely close to the “X” leg. As I shared with my Syndicate members in this morning’s trading video, this is a really good thing, because it puts us in a situation where we don’t have to risk as much and can potentially receive a greater reward if the trade goes in our direction. I usually don’t take patterns too seriously until the “B” leg is broken so there may be a few bullish opportunities beforehand, but that’s something I won’t be interested in until tomorrow. Good luck in the markets this week traders and as always, if you like this post PLEASE HIT the THUMBS UP button, and if you have any question, comments or would like to share your views on this pair don’t hesitate to type in below. Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Click Here for 20+ hours of FREE Training tradeempowered.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Click the link below to subscribe fto my Youtube page www.youtube.com Facebook: www.facebook.com Twitter: twitter.com
Long
by Akil_Stokes
46
EURUSD: Been Waiting All Week & Finally Got My ReasonAfter stalking the EURUSD this entire week, price action has finally made its way down into my kill zone and has also given me a reason to get long in the form of a bullish bat pattern that completed during the early London session. There are so many ways to take targets on this trade and instead of laying them all out I’ll just ask you these questions. Why are you involved in the trade (advanced pattern or trend continuation)? And (of course) What do your rules say to do? I know you guys hate hearing that, but hey, that’s the reality of trading. Each of us are different and as I tell my clients, your trading style should match your personality making it fit you like a fine tailored suit. BIG NEWS OUT AT 8:30 eastern! We’ve got USD: Advance GDP, Trade Balance & Unemployment. This should certainly give us some action early on in the New York session so be careful. The underlying market sentiment still looks to be very bullish the USD especially since yesterday’s (lack of hawkish tone) FOMC statement showed little movement before being shaken off my the market. Yesterday’s USDCAD didn’t go my way and if you’d like to read about it here’s the link to my trading blog. tradeempowered.com Also it’s Thursday so that means my weekly video is coming out so make sure you head over to YouTube and SUBSCRIBE to my channel, that way you don’t miss it. I’ll most likely be talking about dealing with failing strategies and looking at equity curves…we’ll see. Good luck today traders and let’s ROCK the markets on this wonderful Thursday! Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analyst www.TradeEmpowered.com Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM / Forex Weekend Review Videos: www.youtube.com
Long
by Akil_Stokes
76
STUMBLING the EURUSD legs by the dayKEEPING THINGS SIMPLE ON THE EURUSD (1 day, log scale) -the April/May negative divergence worked out -price was meeting resistance in June turned down as expected -at the time, RSI was just slightly at overbought levels (I would prefer a larger RSI overbought reading for a start of an uptrend) -we are seeing lower highs. The sequence of lower lows , however, was stopped at the target that I previously indicated (1.08) - this recent upswing is even showing some bloody strength (as if Greece troubles would be over - NOT! ) - don't be surprised to see this leg up showing choppiness yet continued strength, until the long term trend line is once more touched. At such a point, however, I tend to expect the RSI not providing any evidence of a strong trend. In other words: after some further choppiness, the longer term trend will take over again. Since 1.08 held recently, the first target must be set to that level again. (That is not to say 1.05 or possibly even parity are out of the window, it's just that those levels are a tad less likely for now - we need a clear break of 1.08 for that to come into play. It could happen fast, though, once markets realize that "the Greece issue" is FAR from over - even worse: the Greece issue is getting bigger by the day. We just won't admit it).
Short
by JohnLaw
EURUSD: A Pullback to Where We Had Our Eyes Glued YesterdayHappy Friday traders! A lot of my radar today but I wanted to focus on the EURUSD since I know that’s a pair that many of you are tracking especially those of you who accepted my challenge from yesterday’s YouTube video. ( www.youtube.com ) Personally I’m still bullish from the Gartley pattern earlier this week, but if I weren’t I’d be all over the bull gartley that just completed & at the time of writing this is still hovering around those entry points. Aside from it being an advanced pattern this gartley also represents a pullback that is coming right back into a previous structure high & a zone that we were heavily watching in the Live Room yesterday. I’m not too certain about seeing a move all the way up to the bigger bat, but that’s where my initial targets are at for what I’m trading so trust me, I would not be upset it that happened. A little lower we have a potential cypher pattern as well. Best of luck today gang, after killing the markets last week, it’s been a rough go for me over the past 4 days. Yesterday’s eurjpy trade played out well and like I said in my video, the worst case scenario in my Euro position is +80pips so that will help, but in general when you win big, you should always expect to donate some back. Other pairs on my radar today are the gbpusd (currently long), gbpjpy, usdjpy, nzdusd (currently long) and the euraud. See many of you in the live room at 8am eastern! Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analyst www.TradeEmpowered.com Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM / Forex Weekend Review Videos: www.youtube.com
Long
by Akil_Stokes
28
EURUSD - MIGHT BE ABOUT RESUME IT'S BULLISH CYCLE (UPDATE)In my last chart I suggested that a possible ending diagonal might have form a low above 1.08350 which failed hence the flat correction of 3-3-5 in now ruled out. However the overall larger time frame picture is not changed much in that since the May high price action is correcting the move of the March low and is not a resumption of bearish cycle. The main reason for this view that that the initial decline of May high is clearly a zigzag (ending at 1.0830) and not an impulsive 5 wave decline. Therefore this suggest that once the correction is over, there will be a follow through of the move higher. Having said that there are still 2 possibilities, both expected to resolve to the upside: 1. The we have double zigzag, the 1st ending in May (highlighted in chart) and upon a completion of rally high in June, we have now declined in what looks like double zigzag. 2. The second possibility is that we have more side way correction in the form of contracting triangle (abcde 3-3-3-3-3 configuration). If this is in play then still a rally towards the upper range of the triangle should develop. Here are the technical summary: 1. Since May high, we appear to have double zigzag correction which is near completion. 2. We have retraced 61.8% Fib of the entire rise of the March low and approaching 66.67% (2/3rd Gann percentage) and 78.6% Fib retracement 3. Potential bullish RSI divergence. 4. In the proximity of the previous structure support. 5. If the Fib time symmetry holds then the anticipated low due in this time window. Invalidation level to note is 1.07 (only for review to as new low below 1.06 would not necessarily alter the picture) If the above plays out then the upside is anticipated to be either large wave 3 or C. AB=CD would give us approx target of around 1.18 or higher. In case of triangle as second scenario, the upper range of would be around 1.13. In both of the above, the nature of the rise will give further clues about which of the two possibilities is developing. Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views. For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from. Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. DanV danv-charting.com
Long
by DanV
28
Nasty candlestick on the EUR/USD daily chartOne more hour to go before the day's close on FXCM's FX server. The euro is just below $1.10 right now, which means that we're breaking Friday's lows. I identified a resistance level at $1.12 this morning (we were at $1.1150 at the time of publishing the idea), and seeing the daily candlestick now, I have a tendency of thinking that we won't be seeing $1.12 anytime soon. $1.195 and $1.184 are potential bearish targets if the euro continues to fall, but we'll have to be careful with the ECB rate statement later in the week. I'm thinking that the week's highs are already in place and that we're going to come out of this congestion area with a new bearish leg all the way down to $1.05 in the coming weeks.
Short
by ABRAK75
4
EURUSD: Potential Bearish Bat PatternIt's Friday...I'm feeling burnt out, so we're going to keep it really simple today. Potential Bear Bat Pattern. There you have it. It is pretty cool that we get some extra fibonacci confluence in the form of an 61.8 retracement & a 161.8 extension but at the end of the day the pattern is all that really matters to me. Other pairs on my radar today are the GBPJPY, USDJPY, EURAUD (SHort) & USDCAD If you didn't do so yesterday make sure you check out my latest YouTube video "Simple Technical Analysis & Why Markets Move" www.youtube.com Have a great weekend traders! And of course Live Room/Syndicate members I'll still see you today in an hour or so. Akil
Short
by Akil_Stokes
29
Stumbling the EURUSD legs by the hour{sorry - repost here, since the last published idea was cut-off to the right of the chart} Not much has changed on the EUR USD : -------------------------------------------------------- - the overbought and/or almost overbought levels the RSI have NOT given any clue to a continued bull trend - ON THE CONTRARY, the oversold levels in RSI were not followed by an overbought RSI level. That makes a bull move all the more suspicious - and a continued downtrend all the more possible - the solution to this Triangle (approx. maximum date for this = at 25th June) will tell whether bulls or bears are right - since the bulls keep pushing, but remain to fail at the resistance line, the odds are to the downside - note: this can be flipped, if broken to the upside decisively My bias therefore remains: short, for first a testing of the 1.1180 level (red support area), then next testing of 1.1070 level (green support area) . Given that we have got big events (or at least preceived that way :-) upcoming as the EUR Finance Council will discuss Greece's affairs - I am still holding on to my shorts, awaiting/speculating on first a watershed event (bad) only then to (possibly) to see some "solution" (which it won't be) for a quick rebounce thereafter. If (if!) the 1.1070/1.1050 level gets broken violently, I will just enjoy the ride down. Otherwise, on just bouncing around about that level, I will cover my shorts there. Take care, be wise, but be bold too :)
Short
by JohnLaw
EURUSD - EuroCurrency - Daily - Uptrend in Tact + ForecastI have drawn out a guess for how the EURUSD will advance back to the 1.13-1.14 area. I draw reactions from clusters of time and where there is low time and draw a progression of about 16 days similar to the number of days at the mode across March through April. The secondary reason for this chart is today's "Range Expansion Down Day" that started from a "HIGHER LEVEL" than the last one (marked in a Purple Triangle). If you get aggressive selling at higher levels, then the market isn't controlled by the sellers, rather the buyers are in control and the sellers are "hoping". For those of you new to trading, always keep a close eye on what news is due and watch how the market reacts to it. You can tell how strong a market is by how it reacts to news. Bull markets have small down days on bad news (or even a small up day) and rally strongly on good news days. Bear markets reveal downward price action on good news (or even a small up day) and move down strongly on bad news days.
Long
by timwest
31
Eur/Usd Short setupWatch 1.10640 as a strong resistance zone and secondary resistance zone comes in at 1.10350 = Sell zone. Previous AB - CD playing out point perfection 4 hour: 200 ma sits at 1.10350 (Sell zone) 1 hour: Rising wedge on this corrective rally (waiting for breakout) Wedge tip pointing to 1.10350 Tested 1.10043 (minor structure) Corrective rally has 50% Fib retracement at 1.10096 acting as magnet and 38.2 % Fib at 1.10551 (in between Sell zone) Hourly 200 ma sits at 1.1006 that could act as resistance Targets: 1.08621 was previous support or buy zone (minor structure) 1.08171 was previous low 1.07000 AB - CD pattern Short Invalidated IF: Breaks above 1.1065 Breaks above 1.10991
Short
by sugardaddyFED
EURO - Bullish Butterfly completion - MONTHLYSo thought I'd share this - Here's something Ive noticed on the Monthly Chart - A perfect Bullish Butterfly completion retracing to exactly a .707 from the 2000 lows to the 2008 highs. If I'm right in thinking - Buttefly often tend to have quite sharp reversals.... Definitely got RSI looking right, and also out of interest had noted that the DXY had retraced a 61.8 move on the monthly / with a 1.618 expansion from the lower range... Any thoughts people have on this, please share. I'm still finding my feet. Peace
Long
by 0.618
1
$1.15 could be a level to short the euroThe euro has risen significantly against the US dollar these past couple of weeks, and prices are reaching a key resistance level around $1.153 (February's highs). A long-term trend line comes in at around the same level, which makes me believe that shorting EURUSD will be again possible starting next week. If indeed this is the case, we would need to see the US dollar stabilize (watch the Dow Jones-FXCM US Dollar Index at around 11,580/90 points for support). With the recent volatility in European sovereign yields, the markets have seemed to have forgotten the long-term fundamentals : the BCE will continue buying up sovereign debt even if disinflationary forces abate. I expect that investors and traders will realize this fact soon enough once yields start falling again, which would make a short strategy on EURUSD attractive. The only real obstacle to seeing renewed pressure on EURUSD is the poor US economic data that is weighing on expectations of a Fed rate hike this year. I don't foresee data improving right away, so this could make shorting EURUSD at $1.15 a bit difficult. A break above 1.16$ would invalidate this strategy, likely leading to a move back up to $1.18 and possibly $1.20 this summer.
Short
by ABRAK75
2
EURUSD Daily Analysis - Long but waaaaait a second...The daily trend is pretty bullish with DI+ above DI-. DI- is ridiculously low. Given the multi-day rise, I'm expecting at least a bit of a pullback. I'm looking for long re-entries at 1.115 and 1.1. If it drops below 1.1, DI- will likely have crossed the 20 level to the upside again and I'd have to revise my view. A break of 1.085 would confirm a short trend. I'm expecting a bit of a pullback but for now I'm looking for cheaper entries long and not short entries. So while my bias is long, I'm not suggesting entering a long right now is the best option...get in cheaper. Upside targets include 1.15 and higher towards 1.20.
Long
by TradeApe
2
What are the Critical Dates for Greece and the Euro?What are the Critical Dates for Greece and the Euro? 05/06/2015 Greece Auctions 26-Week Bills 05/08/2015 Greece Treasury Bill Matures 05/11/2015 IMF Loan Repayment Due 5/15/2015 Greece Treasury Bill Matures 06/04/2015 IMF Loan Repayment Due 06/10/2015 Greece Auctions 26-Week Bills 06/12/2015 Greece Treasury Bill Matures 6/15/2015 IMF Loan Repayment Due 6/18/2015 IMF Loan Repayment Due 6/19/2015 Greece Treasury Bill Matures 07/08/2015 Greece Auctions 26-Week Bills 07/10/2015 Greece Treasury Bill Matures 07/12/2015 IMF Loan Repayment Due 7/14/2015 Greece Government Int'l Bond Matures 7/14/2015 Greece Government Int'l Bond Matures 7/17/2015 Greece Treasury Bill Matures 7/19/2015 ECB Bond Repayment 7/19/2015 EIB Bond Repayment 7/20/2015 Greece Government Bond Matures 7/20/2015 Greece Government Bond Matures 08/05/2015 Greece Auctions 26-Week Bills 08/07/2015 Greece Treasury Bill Matures 8/19/2015 ECB Bond Repayment www.dailyfx.com
by TradeYodha
EURUSD: Active management/A structure trade review (w/video)THIS IS NOT A TRADING IDEA, more of a recap. Earlier this week I posted a chart of the EURUSD that had three potential bearish patterns setting up in the same area. In that post I mentioned that I was also involved in a long position on the Euro. Well after 24 hours of doing absolutely nothing this pair finally decided to rally and move in my favor. Throughout the week I've gotten numerous messages about that position and since I never posted it here's a quick look at what was on my mind. Unlike advanced patterns, when I involve myself in a structure based trade I look to actively manage it. The "black flags" on the chart were potential profit taking levels for me and as price action approached them I would keep a close eye on the reaction. A positive sign would lead me to stay in the trade, while a negative sign would cause me to take my profits and fight again another day. The blue lines are an example of how i managed my stop/loss while the position was in progress. While the green flag is where I ultimately ended up taking off my final profits. Now before you yell at me about "not catching the entire move" please take a look at the video i just uploaded to my YouTube channel explaining the "Pros" and "Cons" of active management vs shooting for a static target area. www.youtube.com
Long
by Akil_Stokes
4