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Eurobonds

ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.08.29📌 In spite of the summer lull, EURUSD continue to hold and buyers are threatening to win the 1.20xx handles. Sharp speculators understood the powerful attacking force of debt mutualisation, but the icing on the cake comes from Fed artificially flushing USD. The king continues its march lower. To maintain the buy side in EURUSD is pragmatic. Any direct attempt to step against this flow will be compromised while we remain above 1.178x and 1.161x strong pivots with 1.14xx the stronger level on a quarterly basis. An interesting move will be to complete 1.225x and 1.250x this year before consolidating sufficiently. The moral of the story, is stay long EURUSD. We have discussed the fundamental coverage in detail, there are other things which warrant attention from speculators, I can hear you asking, what things are these then? ...Positioning! This next diagram demonstrates how we can advance and capitalise on expectations transitioning to facts. On a very high level the theme here appears, with a holistic view of the macro direction. This resembles a move towards 1.28x and 1.42x as investors make the most of the advantage, and the 'freer manoeuvrability' of the fiscal side. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
20
ridethepig | EURNZD July Macro Swing📌 Here tickets are very cheap for those wanting to exploit the NZD weakness via dovish RBNZ. While on the European side, a direct consolidation of the debt, sacrificing Merkel to save the currency. Complex but totally tradable flows. => After the textbook move in EURUSD Euro crosses can almost equalise. In cramped consolidation, you cannot afford to give any easy entries, the false break ruins those soft retail expecting an easy move! Actively looking to build full positions at 1.7325 for the coming weeks and month. A long journey ahead with 1.78 as the main goal, in order to support as best it can the slingshot will move with direction action (instead of a zig-zag).
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | When will EURUSD find a bottom?A good time to kickstart a round of chart updates here...the underlying infrastructure in Europe will be fixed, from a monetary perspective eurobonds will be the only way to save the currency and covid-19 has unlocked Germany one more time. Although we are starting to clear the top of the curve in places like Italy and NY to a lot lesser extent, there is (sadly) a lot of damage to recover in the 'fact' leg across earnings and macro numbers. The dark clouds are still prevalent across Europe, until Germany bend the knee it will be difficult to grab euros with both hands. Instead a further flush of the lows is in play, in my books it will be enough to trigger capitulation and remain in this strategy. For those tracking the examples in DAX we traded the highs earlier in the year, there is marginal room for another leg lower via risk: I am starting to turn neutral there and continue to monitor the situation with an ear to the ground. USD will remain in bid until we clear the risk/panic flows in Coronavirus. For those tracking the short-term technical side in EURUSD for the long-term map we have 1.07xx handle acting as strong support, I expect a breach to trigger the political capitulation which is what we are tracking on the fundamental side . Once we clear the , to the topside a breach of 1.089xx will open up the targets above. These macro swing targets will come into play at 1.18xx, 1.25xx and 1.35xx over the coming Months and Quarters. The courage to intentionally let oneself be put under pressure for days, just on account of a remote possibility, is now rewarded. Buyers will obtain a direct attack by letting the lows go, do not rush into this move as it is one to track for the rest of the year and potentially decade. Pips are for pipsqueak’s ... this is a fundamental swing which consists of setting our opponent a difficult problem. You can see the stakes are being raised; buyers are taking their time developing the cramped floor. And yet, sellers have not yet passed the point of no return at parity, after which it becomes impossible to level the playing field. A very difficult macro concept to understand, jump into the comments with any questions, comments and views!
Long
by ridethepig
3