When does XAUUSD end the downtrend?Price goes below March 2021, if this support can handle, the price should reversal soon, If this support can't handle, the price should go to 123.6% (~1582$) or 138.2% (~1525$), worst case is 161.8% (1432$)
MACD is doing divergence, But waiting for the price action to make a decision.
OANDA:XAUUSD
Who knows ?
Fibonacci Extension
9/18/22 DISThe Walt Disney Company ( NYSE:DIS )
Sector: Consumer Services (Cable/Satellite TV)
Market Capitalization: $197.346B
Current Price: $108.25
Breakdown Price: $107.15
Sell Zone: $120.75-$113.75
Price Target: $90.90-$89.70 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 77-82d
Contract of Interest: $DIS 12/16/22 110p
Trade price as of publish date: $8.25/contract
9/18/22 LNGCheniere Energy ( AMEX:LNG )
Sector: Industrial Services (Oil & Gas Pipelines)
Market Capitalization: $41.776B
Current Price: $167.25
Breakout Price: $172.15
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $164.15-$151.00
Price Target: $195.90-$197.30
Estimated Duration to Target: 56-59d
Contract of Interest: $LNG 12/16/22 170c
Trade price as of publish date: $13.90/contract
9/18/22 HRBH&R Block, Inc. ( NYSE:HRB )
Sector: Consumer Services (Other Consumer Services)
Market Capitalization: $7.186B
Current Price: $44.93
Breakout Price: $47.10
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $44.40-$38.80
Price Target: $62.40-$64.20
Estimated Duration to Target: 152-161d
Contract of Interest: $HRB 3/17/23 45c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.65/contract
USDCAD, extended wave to end soonUSDCAD has been trading in a zigzag structure (channel) with higher highs and higher lows on daily timeframe. It has reached a horizontal resistance zone.
we can notice a WXYXZ Elliot structure, with ABC patterns in every impulse and X correction after it (11 waves in the channel). USDCAD is close to the end of the last extended wave C: we can notice in it 12345 Elliot waves structure. With Fibonacci extensions, wave 5 can reach 1.335 (or the rectangle we draw based on the fib extension).
However, a head and shoulders pattern is recognized on m30, waiting for USDCAD to break the neckline with a candle closing below it to take the sell.
Be careful with your risk management, the last extended wave can still reach 1.25 fib extension before ending.
Goodluck everyone,
Joe.
ETH, looks like a long way down. Hey everyone, just some quick TA. On HTF there is a H&S unfolding. Monthly open lost (1554) now opens the flood gates to lower prices. Based on fibs and where previous lows are it appears those lvls will be reached sooner rather then later. 1.618 lines up around $900 which also coincides with previous lows. This is not financial advice just what I’m seeing in the charts and what looks likely to play out. Also factoring in fed meeting next week on the 22nd with an expected .75 basis points. Don’t be surprised with a 100 basis point rise and markets to react negatively. Well that’s how I’m playing it.
Good luck happy trading!
NFA
A last chance for the Euro ?Under the US dollar pressure, EURUSD has been making lower lows and lower highs recently. However, RSI on the monthly chart is oversold for the 3rd time in this century.
MACD is showing bullish divergence on multiple timeframes, and the EURUSD on H4 has just achieved a higher high this time with 5 impulse waves: the ABC correction is clear on the chart, wave C is nearly around 0.76 to 0.8 fib retracement. With today's good news on euro CPI and core CPI (higher than expected for both), we can give this currency a chance to retest the end of impulse wave 5, or even to make a higher high.
Stoploss can go below the impulse wave 2 for some people, or below the lowest low (the beginning of the impulse wave).
Note that on a long term perspective, USD is still stronger than EURO, we will just give eurusd a chance after the new high we saw lately.
Goodluck everyone,
Joe.
STORJ falling wedge and even AB=CD#STORJ/USDT
$STORJ is below upper line of falling wedge pattern.
🐮 breaking out from the upper line will increase price to resistance zone around $0.75.
also if price holds the support of 0.786 fib level, it can rise to complete the AB=CD pattern at around $1.25.
🐻🐮 I think it is possible that price tries to touch the lower line of wedge before breaking out the upper line which would be a better entry.
bullish flag can make another leg up for ETC#ETC/USDT
$ETC had more than 140% increase since my analysis from 6/12/2022 and broke out from descending trend line.
🐮 now price shaped a bullish flag pattern and we just need a confirmation of the weekly candle to close above the channel.
so if we have this confirmation price can increase toward 1.618 fib level of last swing high (which is between upper trend lines) to complete flag Pattern and also it can be AB=CD pattern that can be complete.
AUDNZD CONSOLIDATION BREAK Pair: AUDNZD
Timeframe: 1D , 4H
Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, trend channel, consolidation period
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Key Takeaway: Been consolidating by this level of support for quite some time now and we are seeing alot of big wicks on top of recent candles indicating the rejection of bullish momentum. We need to see a close below this level of support before we can enter short
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Level needed: need a close by 1.11260
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Trade: Short
RISK:REWARD 1:10
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DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
EOS cup and handle can rise price to $3#EOS/USDT
$EOS shaped a cup and handle pattern.
now price is below upper line of descending channel that can be considered as handle, and it is the same with neckline.
🐮 break out from neckline or upper line of channel can increase price as high as cup which is around $3.
🐻 break down from 0.5 fib level will invalidate this scenario.
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My Elliot Wave theory on BitcoinHi all,
Here's my count on Bitcoin, and my thought about the current situation : INDEX:BTCUSD
On the long term, prices made a perfect count in five primary waves (three motive and two corrective waves), that build the very first cycle wave .
Currently, we are in the corrective phase, or wave 2 of the cycle . This wave 2 is composed by three primary waves, A, B, C .
According to the structure of the current wave (wave A), we are in a Zigzag , a corrective pattern composed by 2 motive waves , A and C. These waves are subdivised by 5, 3 and 5 intermediate waves.
By looking at the chart, we already made 4 intermediate waves and we are now in intermediate wave 5 of primary wave A .
The current target of this final wave is the 161.8% Fibonacci ratio , at 16,665$ .
Let's assume that this target is the good one and prices bounce on it, and build primary wave B . This wave is subdivised of three intermediate waves , ((a)) , ((b)) and ((c)) .
Primary wave B retraces around 50% and 85.4% of primary wave A . (Fibonacci retracement)
Again, the most realistic target is the golden ratio (61.8%) . So the top of primary wave B could be at 39,466$ .
Finally, prices enter the last primary wave, wave C .
This one have three main objectives, 61.8% , 100% and 123.6% of primary wave A . You have these three targets written on the chart.
It will depend on the market psycology and the strenght of the bears during this phase.
And the end of this pattern would be between fourth quarter of 2023 and first quarter of 2024.
TRB trend lines and fib levels#TRB/USDT
$TRB touched 0.5 fib level of weekly swing down and dropped to support zone which is the same with support zone around $20.
🐮 holding above this support zone, and after several days of sideways move between $30 and $20, it can head up to descending trend line which is the same with 0.5 fib level again.
break out from this level will increase price to resistance zone around $60.
🐻 breaking down from support zone will drop price to descending support around $3!!
GOLD - Long-term buy opportunity (end of ABC in primary degree)
Hello traders, today we will provide a long-term trading idea. It is that long-term that you could use it as an investing idea and buy gold (the asset, not the derivative) and hold it.
The chart shows you the corrective pattern that started in July 2020 is in the last stages and it can be ending soon. The price is now in wave 5 in the intermediate degree (blue), which will end the whole corrective structure ABC in the primary degree (green) and after that, we expect the motive bullish wave 5 in the cycle degree (orange) will start.
We will be monitoring this asset when the targeted price for this correction to end is reached (1672 is the level). From this point, we expect that the gold will end the corrective cycle at any time and will start a rally. The zone where this turn would happen is from 1671 to 1373. It is a huge zone, this is due we are dealing with a daily time frame structure and even though the size of the zone is large, it is also the potential target. We cannot define precisely the target yet but it would be above the 2200 level.
We do have a trading system that reduces a lot the size of the zone (not the target, therefore, the R:R ratio increases a lot). If you have a trading system (supply and demand zones, volume profile, set of rules of indicator…) you can apply it when the price is inside this green zone and the chances the trade will succeed will increase a lot.
Important note: it is a daily zone, use the signals that trigger the trade according to it (a 5 minutes signal probably will not be strong enough to turn a daily structure)
Reasons why we believe it is going to work:
1- The Corrective structure is clear and the chances that this ABC structure becomes an impulse and stops us out are, at this moment, low. We will monitor it in any case and update you.
2- The USD cycle- The USD is approaching the end of a cycle where it has been dominated by USD strength. When this cycle ends, a cycle where the USD is going to be weaker will start and this will help all the commodities priced in USD, and of course, gold is one of them, to have a bullish cycle that could be pretty powerful. This trade is long-term, so we should not expect a rally in gold in the following days, it can take a few weeks for the gold to end the corrective structure and also for the dollar to end the bullish cycle.
3- The FIAT currencies situation. Central banks have been continuously printing money which has devaluated, at least in common people’s perception, the value of the currencies. This can push investors and common people to buy gold to try to keep their savings protected from a potential hyperinflation of the currency of their savings.
4- Gold is not infinite– The quantity of supply of gold is not infinite and it is difficult to be massively manipulated. Therefore, gold will always have value and these supply constraints will make the gold more difficult to have a significant collapse in the price. In addition, gold has the perception of a value preservation asset. So, in case of an economic crisis (which is predicted in some parts of the world), it can increase the demand for gold.
Always keep in mind that risk management is, at least, as important as the entry-level or the SL. Remember the quote “If you do not manage the risk, you will not have any risk to manage”
The market is always repeating the same type of defined structures. There are only two main wave types: the motive wave and when the motive wave ends it starts a corrective wave. Within them, there are only 3 motive waves structures (Impulse, leading diagonal, and ending diagonal) and 5 main types of corrective structures (ABC, WXY, Flats, triangle, WXYXZ (triple correction))
Learning them and being able to spot them in the price action graphs will completely change the way you trade as these structures will provide entry point areas, invalidation levels, and targets for the trade.
Have a safe and profitable trading day
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it is only the explanation of what we are going to do and it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin - Let's Talk Fibonacci 📈Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📉📈
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫
Bitcoin is still facing critical selling pressure. What you see on the chart, is the Macro Fibonacci retracement and trend based extension. This is set up by using the first high BTC ever made, and the lower point is the first low after that high. Fibonacci can be especially useful from the Macro perspective, as certain levels seem to be critically important such as the .618's. The price trading right on top of a level is usually a sign of weakness, as it reflects that there is insufficient buying pressure there OR that the selling pressure is still high.
Even though we have seen some positive price movements from the 1 Level, we also see a clear M-Pattern and rejection at this point. There is obviously still a large supply zone here, and the price will be forced lower to find more buying pressure.
Please see the two posts at related ideas on two proposed bottoms👀
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EURNZD 3 VITAL LEVELS OF RESISTANCE Pair: EURNZD
Timeframe: 1D , 4H
Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, pattern pattern, ascending triangle break
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Key Takeaway: Looking for bearish setups only for this pair. We have hit three vital resistance levels (high volume level / dynamic resistance / top of pennant pattern). Our profit target is at the support of our pennant pattern
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Level needed: need a close by 1.62470
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Trade: Short
RISK:REWARD 1:6
SL: 40
TP: 240
—————
DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION