Firstmajestic
Long First Majestic #tradingtheapocalypseFundamentals
First Majestic is a primary silver producer (which moves more like a junior). It has historically been heavily shorted, making it a good candidate for outperforming in any precious metals bull market. Arguably, we are in the beginning stages of a precious metals bull market, kicked off by the slowing of Fed rate rises in August 2022. First Majestic sold off heavily on news that they had suspended production at Jerrit Canyon. In fact, this news, while disappointing in the short term, is bullish in the medium term, since it returns the company to be mainly weighted silver, which outperforms gold. It's also bullish in the long term, as once management has made the necessary changes, Jerrit Canyon can come back online and produce gold at a reasonable AISC. AG is trading near its Covid lows, which seems to be to be deeply oversold from a fundamental point of view.
The underlying macro thesis is that there will be a flight to precious metals due to weakness in the banking sector, historical price manipulation coming to an end, central bank buying of gold, and many other reasons. #tradingtheapocalypse
Technicals
Weekly RSI in July 2022 was around as oversold as the Covid lows. Compared to then, weekly RSI has made a regular bullish divergence, signalling a likely end to the high-timeframe downtrend.
Daily RSI already made regular bullish divergence on the low before the JC news, and has made even more pronounced bullish divergence since. Price recently reclaimed weekly resistance.
This position is a long-term (weeks/months) long trade, entering now, with a stop under the recent low and a final take-profit at the 2021 high. There are many dynamic and horizontal resistances between here and there where one could swing a portion of the trade.
First Majestic: Room for Maneuver 🤏First Majestic is still wading through the turquoise zone between $12.36 and $6.89 to finish wave 2 in turquoise. To achieve this, the course still has got some room for maneuver – at least until the bottom of the turquoise zone. However, it also might have already completed the current movement, thus continuing the ascent. As soon as that is the case, we expect First Majestic to climb out of the turquoise zone, heading for the resistance at $19.41. There is a 45% chance, though, that the course could drop out of the turquoise zone and slip below the support at $5.30. Should this indeed happen, the share should develop a new low in the form of wave alt.2 in green near $2.91.
AG | This Has Me Drooling | LONGFirst Majestic Silver Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of mineral properties with a focus on silver and gold production in North America. It holds 100% interests in the San Dimas Silver/Gold Mine covering an area of 71,868 hectares located in Durango and Sinaloa states; the Santa Elena Silver/Gold Mine covering an area of 102,244 hectares located in Sonora; Jerritt Canyon gold mine that covers an area of approximately of 30,821 hectares located in Elko County, Nevada; and the La Encantada Silver Mine covering an area of 4,076 hectares situated in Coahuila, as well as surface land ownership of 1,343 hectares. The company also holds 100% interests in the La Parrilla Silver Mine that covers an area of 69,478 hectares located in Durango; the Del Toro Silver Mine consisting of 3,815 hectares of mining concessions and 219 hectares of surface rights located in Zacatecas; the San Martin Silver Mine includes 33 mining concessions covering an area of 12,795 hectares located in Jalisco; and the La Guitarra Silver Mine that covers an area of 39,714 hectares located in Mexico. In addition, it holds interest in the Springpole project, a gold and silver project covering an area of approximately 41,913 hectares in Ontario, Canada. The company was formerly known as First Majestic Resource Corp. and changed its name to First Majestic Silver Corp. in November 2006. First Majestic Silver Corp. was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
First Majestic: Time to Say GoodbyeFirst Majestic is currently paving its pathway to leave the turquoise target zone between $6.89 and $12.36 for good, to wander above the resistance line at $19.41 and resume the upwards trend further North. Our alternative scenario displays a 40% chance for the course to drop below the support line at $5.30 which would be continued with a downwards slope around the $2.91-mark to complete the dark green wave alt. .
First Majestic: Shy…While First Majestic had actually already made it to the upper edge of the turquoise zone between $6.89 and $12.36, it has shied away and drawn back again until the retracement at 61.80%. Thus, we still give it some time to finish wave 2 in turquoise – although it could also continue the ascent from here. As soon as wave 2 in turquoise is completed, First Majestic should indeed move upwards, heading for the resistance at $19.41. However, there is also a 40% chance that First Majestic could slip through the turquoise zone and drop below the support at $5.30. In that case, it should extend the downwards movement until $2.91.
First Majestic: Refinishing…Like an artist with their painting, a craftsperson with their handiwork or a cook with their most exquisite dish, First Majestic seems not yet ready to let go of its work in the turquoise zone between $12.36 and $6.89 and apparently wants to add a finishing touch. Thus, it has arched back downwards and could aim for completing wave 2 in turquoise a bit deeper still in the turquoise zone. As soon as the current downwards movement is concluded, though, First Majestic should turn upwards and head for the resistance at $19.41. However, there is a remarkable 45% chance that First Majestic could break through the bottom of the turquoise zone and drop below the support at $5.30, which would then trigger further downwards movement.
First Majestic: Should I Stay Or Should I Go?“Darling, you’ve got to let me know – should I stay or should I go?”
This song by The Clash seems to be sounding in the background while First Majestic is thinking. As it has already reached the ideal target point for wave 2 in turquoise, the share price could directly go upwards now, rising above the resistance at $19.41. Likewise, it could stay to finish wave 2 in turquoise a bit deeper in the turquoise zone between $12.36 and $6.89. However, there is also a 45% chance that First Majestic could drop below the support line at $5.30, thus activating further descent.
Possible short on further fed funds hikes down to $5I expect more downside in miners if perceived hawkishness from the fed is maintained. Soon though, they'll cave and sacrifice the dollar to do what they think will save the markets, which will lead to an explosion in precious metals. These miners will be the ultimate levered trade on the coming fed pivot so be ready to reverse to long.
FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER - PRESSURE BUILDINGThis is a weekly chart of AG, First Majestic Silver Corp. I like to call this pattern a giant compression wedge - it's just a simple descending triangle. But considering this is on the weekly timeframe, it's a mammoth-sized wedge. I like the pattern but I really like the company. I'll try to focus on the technical analysis, but First Majestic looks incredibly well positioned for what's unfolding in the metals market. They have their ducks in a row.
If you follow my ideas, then you'll know how I feel about precious metals. I believe we're facing a perfect storm that will propel precious metals & miners to incredible levels. The monetary circus, supply & demand, inflation, gold:silver ratio, and the commodity cycle are just a few of the ingredients in the recipe.
I'm torn about direction. Equities, the dollar, precious metals, and the miners are in a pivotal place. The dollar looks like it's trying to find a bottom. It's possible that the metals, miners, and equities get pushed down hard again.. potentially another crash. Having another crash in equities, metals, miners, etc.. would be my preferred path because I suspect that it wouldn't last long.. Inflation is coming but don't rule out another deflationary hiccup. I like to buy stuff cheap and so I'll be thrilled to have another discount. Watch the dollar. I think we're going to know soon.. and watch First Majestic. It would be incredible to have it tag (E) of this wedge. The measured move of this pattern is somewhere around 39-40 but a move from $4.00 to 40 is a 10x compared to the 2x it is from current prices.
First Majestic: There it is!There it is! First Majestic actually did it – it has advanced into our turquoise zone between $12.36 and $6.89. Now, things are getting interesting. As First Majestic has reached the middle of the turquoise zone and thus has tapped its ideal target point for wave 2 in turquoise, it could already start to move upwards, crossing the resistance at $19.41. However, there lurks a 45% chance that First Majestic could fail to turn and could fall through the turquoise zone instead. In that case, it could drop further below the support at $5.30.
First Majestic: Happy! 🥰🥰🥰It is increasingly looking good for the First Majestic stock, as the price is further moving away from its support at $12.56. Below that mark, we would experience a decline under $10. However, we trust the bulls here to make significant advances and push the price above $33.
Silver is the new gold!
First Majestic: Turnaround soon? 😢😢😢It has not been a particularly good year for the First Majestic stock. However, we expect a turnaround just above the support line at $12.56. If the bulls can turn the course around there, big-time upward movements await us. If the price falls below the support line, we will see one-digit prices.
Happy trading!
VERY BULLISHI've been watching this triangle for probably a couple years 🤣 and it's finally broken out!
Commodity prices are rising quickly and don't look like they're stopping and SILVER HASN'T EVEN MADE A NEW HIGH YET!!!
Could be the opportunity of a lifetime but we also need to be aware of the downside risks because this will sell off if the market sells off simply because people will get margin called and lose their shirts if interest rates rise. But the Fed claims there won't be a raise until 2023... and the chart is telling me we could run up 7-8x from now until then. Meanwhile I just paid 40% more to fill up my car today as compared to a few months ago...
Owning a little physical silver makes me feel better. 😓
AG FIRST MAJESTIC5 years arc represent a cup with a forming handle. Fundamental for silver are incredible. The only thing that currently limits its full potential is spoofing by big 8. This game is coming to the end with no physical silver being found and currently several mints are defaulting around the globe. Initial target $39.59 with and it will get us there on June 3rd 2021 plus or minus on a date and price.