BTC - Explanation of Potential 35,000 / 10,000 Drop & SummaryIn this video I detail out why I believe we will see a significant crash on Bitcoin, dig into the mechanics of how a drop to $10,000 is possible, talk about the US Dollar and macro ideas for Bitcoin, and summarize my trading ideas and why I am anticipating its a good trading opportunity.
Any questions or comments, please feel free to ask or leave your own input.
This is never about ego or being right over anyone else - we are in this together and all have the same goals.
Flashcrash
ACE 29.05.24ACE 5.10-5.16 is an ideal long entry point. If BTC does not make a sudden dump, I predict that ACE coin will rebound from these levels, break the 5.7 resistance, and head toward the 6.63 resistance. Despite the risk, I am opening a small long position from these levels.
Entry1: 5.41
Entry2: 5.15
Stop: 5
TP1: 5.7
TP2: 6.61
It is advisable to be cautious as BTC is still facing selling pressure . In the event of a flash crash, ACE coin could drop to levels around 4.65-4.7.
What I write here serves as a note to myself. Does not include investment advice.
Coinbase Denies Retail Buy-In at 59-60k!Traders,
I've been seeing a ton of traders who wanted to buy BTC at 59-60k but their transaction "failed". There is a reason why I am now calling BTC, Blackrock Trading Coin and why I have been extra cynical and skeptical about Blackrock's crypto trading exchange, Coinbase, as well as their entry into the crypto space via ETF. But I won't get into conjecture or conspiracy here. Just watch. You'll witness more shenanigans just like this the higher price goes.
Anyways, we can use Coinbase's buying rejection at 59-60k as further proof that this was the bottom of our liquidation flush. Notice how on my chart the wick down touched exactly that top ascending purple trend line. Once hit, we quickly bounced back above my multi-year ascending support/resistance (now support) trend line from 2019. As long as we stay above this line, I am completely comfortable and confident that our upward journey will continue.
Remember, there is no escaping the math here. ETFs are simply demanding far more than miners can produce. Only 24% of BTC remains liquid. And there is burgeoning institutional demand for BTC ETFs in a growing number of countries. All this before halving. There is no way to get around these fundamental facts. Fundamentals supersede technical analysis in this case. And this is coming from someone who touts technical analysis most of the time.
Fundamentals are priority but we can see that technicals are supporting fundamentals. Look also at that RSI. Finally, it gets a break and is able to drop back below overbought territory. Altcoin RSI readings look even better.
I suspect when all the dust settles and price closes out this candle we may even be back above that 64.8k support. But if we're not and we settle anywhere above my multi-year line of support, I remain bullishly biased and expect us to hit our inverse H&S target of 79k soon.
Best,
Stewdamus
10 Black Swan Events that Shook the marketsBlack Swans are highly unpredictable events that go beyond what is usually expected of a situation.
One definition I like is this.
A Black Swan is where an event can cause the market to move 10 standard deviations away from the norm.
When this happens they could potentially have severe and wide-reaching consequences.
You’ll see the market will jump erratically and even cause a halt in trading activity completely.
So when you spot a Black Swan. Just take it easy from trading the markets that can be affected.
Here are 10 Black Swan Events that I can think of that had an impact on the markets.
2008 Global Financial Crisis
Triggered by the collapse of the US housing market, it led to a worldwide banking crisis and severe global economic downturn.
COVID-19 Pandemic
An unprecedented global health crisis that had significant repercussions on global economies and markets in 2020.
Dotcom Bubble Burst (2000)
The dramatic rise (due to greed and optimism) and fall (due to fear and panic) of internet companies in the late 1990s led to a severe market correction.
Brexit (2016)
Britain’s unexpected decision to leave the EU had immediate impacts on global markets.
Japanese Asset Price Bubble Burst (1992)
This led to a lost decade of economic stagnation in Japan.
(Have you seen the Nikkei! And can you imagine holding stocks from 1992?)
Swiss Franc Unpegging (2015)
The Swiss National Bank’s sudden decision to remove the cap on the Franc’s value against the Euro led to extreme currency volatility.
(Forex trading was a nightmare seeing some prices drop hundreds of pips).
September 11 Attacks (2001)
The terrorist attacks had immediate and long-term effects on global economies and markets.
(I was too young to worry so I missed this one.)
Fukushima Nuclear Disaster (2011)
Triggered by a massive earthquake and tsunami, it had significant impacts on global energy markets.
(I remember holding oil stocks while driving. And I came home to R120,000 loss).
Flash Crash (2010)
The US stock market crash, triggered by a high-frequency trading algorithm, sent a financial shockwave around the world.
(Fat fingers caused by unknown factors).
Oil Price Negative (2020)
For the first time in history, the price of US oil turned negative due to low demand during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Which Black Swan event affected you the most?
The history of the Flash Crashes in BTC, how to make money on itI'll start this post with what I've earned on the covid flash crash myself. This success was repeated in May 2021 but in other token.
That's why I know a little about it.
At the end I wrote why next flash crash is possible
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies often experience flash crashes when there are sharp and significant price declines for a short period of time. These events can be triggered by a variety of factors, including market panics, big selling, news, or regulatory changes. Here are a few known instances of flash crashes in bitcoin history :
The flash crash On June 19, 2011, the price of bitcoin dropped from about $17.50 to just $0.01 on the low-volume Mt.Gox exchange. The reason for this flash crash was a huge sales order to sell 2,000 bitcoins at the market price.
Flash Crash On April 10, 2013, the price of bitcoin plummeted from about $260 to $45 in a short period of time. This followed a series of crashes on the Mt.Gox exchange and a number of other factors that caused panic among traders.
Flash crash On June 21, 2017, the price of bitcoin on some exchanges dropped from about $2,800 to $0.10 in just a few seconds. This was caused by a technical malfunction on the GDAX exchange that led to the execution of a bitcoin sell order at a low price.
Flash Crash On September 17, 2019, the price of bitcoin on the Bitstamp exchange plummeted from about $10,000 to $8,100 in a short period of time. The reason for this flash crash was a large sale order for 5,000 bitcoins on the exchange.
Flash crash in 2020: On March 12, 2020, the price of bitcoin dropped by about 50% in a few hours, falling from about $8,000 to $4,000. This flush crash was caused by market panic related to the global COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on financial markets.
Flash crash in 2020: On May 10, 2020, the price of bitcoin dropped more than 10% in just a few minutes. This happened after bitcoin sales orders worth about $30 million were executed on the BitMEX exchange.
Causes of Flash Crashes
-Flash crashes, or sharp and brief drops in asset prices in financial markets, can be caused by a variety of reasons. Some of the main causes of flash crashes include:
-Automated trading systems: The use of computer programs and algorithms to perform a large number of trades can lead to a situation where these systems start selling assets automatically in response to certain market conditions. This may lead to a spike in sales and a sharp drop in prices, resulting in a flash crash.
- Market Liquidity: Lack of liquidity in the market, that is, the inability to quickly buy or sell assets without a significant change in their price, can contribute to the occurrence of flash crashes. When large numbers of investors are trying to sell assets at the same time and there are not enough buyers, prices may decline sharply.
- Systemic Failures: Technical failures and errors in trading platforms or settlement systems may cause flash cracks. Incorrect orders or execution of trades, delays in transmitting information, or problems with transaction processing may create volatility in the market and provoke sharp drops in prices.
- Market Emotions and Panic: Heightened nervousness, emotional reactions, and panic among investors can also contribute to flash crashes. If a significant number of investors start selling assets en masse due to fear and anxiety, it can cause a spike in sales and a sharp drop in prices.
What were some inefficiencies in the market that could be exploited in the financial markets
There are several instances in the financial markets where inefficiencies could be detected and exploited for profit. Some of these cases include:
-Arbitrage between different markets: If assets are traded on different markets or exchanges at different prices, one could buy an asset at a lower price in one market and sell it at a higher price in another market, profiting from the difference in prices. This is known as arbitrage.
-Mispricing Companies: Sometimes investors may mispriced companies' stocks, creating opportunities to buy undervalued stocks or sell overvalued stocks. Such valuation mismatches can create opportunities for profits.
-Temporary Price Mismatches: Sometimes there are temporary asset price mismatches in financial markets caused by panic, emotion or unforeseen events. If an investor is able to identify such mismatches and take appropriate action, he or she may profit from their correction.
Explore the last point
Temporary price mismatches in financial markets occur when asset prices deviate from their fundamental value for a short period of time. This can be caused by various factors such as panic, traders' emotional reactions, unexpected news or errors in trading algorithms.
Temporary price mismatches present opportunities for traders or investors to capitalize on the difference between the current price and the fundamental value of an asset. Some examples of timing mismatches in prices include:
Inefficiency of crypto exchanges: There can be differences in asset prices on different trading platforms, especially during volatile market conditions. Traders can exploit these differences to buy an asset at a lower price on one platform and sell it at a higher price on another platform, making arbitrage profits.
Use of Algorithmic Trading: Algorithmic trading systems can cause timing mismatches in prices. For example, if an algorithmic system triggers a large number of sell orders in a short period of time, it may cause the price of an asset to go down. Traders may try to take advantage of such situations to profit by entering buy positions when prices decrease due to algorithmic selling.
This is due to the fact that players who want to make money on Funding/Countdown and their ideal market is a flat and when the market moves, they simply leave the market and wait for a less volatile market. This is why there is a liquidity crisis on some exchanges and there is a price overshoot.
All signs of a flash crash, signaling as much as I can:
1.The exchanges also believed in the latest surge in trading volumes and are now going full steam ahead.
2.The crowd is sitting in coinlist and seals with potential profits.
3.The crowd is playing or holding memcoins.
4.Crowd sits in altcoins, which is "still cheap" and already near December lowes
5.No new steibles are released - no one from the outside is interested in crypto, those who wanted have already bought it
6. Bankfallls
7.FEDnow release
8.The subcycle in the global cycle I mentioned in other posts
That's why I recommend to register at different exchanges, to study and test different trading terminals
Best regards EXCAVO
was that a flash crash 2.0 in mcd ms pltr tsm v nke NYSE seems to have had bad open liquidity issues.
apparently large algo may have tried to sell at the open.
from twitter:
@ConsensusGurus
"The largest dislocations from this morning's NYSE Flash Crash 2.0 - Multiple $100BN+ swings."
@MFHoz
The NYSE was hit by a "technical glitch" today, causing a trading halt for some of the most well-known global companies. It serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of our financial systems.
It's a sign of something much bigger and more sinister at play.
-------------
Im sure we will hear more over next days and weeks.
XRP Got checked out of the LibraryOK crew, if you've been following my previous XRP "Stick a fork in it" idea, we made some pretty solid moves that really focused on ;
A. Scalps and light profit taking
B. Wealth preservation and keeping the portfolio in steady growth
C. General price directions on the daily, which we nailed gloriously
So moving to the new idea here (bonus if you got the library reference)
1. SEC vs. LBRY - Bad news, Google it but long short is that (at the very least) it has an impact on the crypto market at large and especially in the minds of XRP fam.
2. Check out the Core Scientific meltdown and it's effect on BTC hashrate. I've been warning everybody.
3. Clearly somebody knew something which led to the pump starting on the 16th of September. These guys always know and play the inside but I'm sure the SEC is totally going to go after them, lol. After 4 solid days of red candle action, we crescendoed beautifully with a net beatdown drop of just under 35%. Pretty sweet and all in hours of trading.
4. Blood moons - The guys that move markets are total occultists. Look at the way Doge moved running into the culmination of Halloween. Last night's blood moon eclipse and the resulting sell-off is just their way of letting us know who they are and what they're into.
5. On the purely technical side, we're well below our key MA's and with the John Wick candle staring us in the face, that wick is sure to engulf at some point which means lower level buying ops and shorts for those willing to risk handling XRP the wrong way. She can be a cruel mistress and you don't want to pi$$ her off.
6. Look at previous potential Golden Crossings and see how many reversed and never happened on the EMA's for XRP.
7. The Harmonic totally paid out on the short side but we got pretty good results with longing back in at the bottom of the longer term Fib channel / uptrend. Keep an eye on the down fork still in play although I'm still a fan of the engulfment theory.
I probably missed a bunch of other stuff but this should do it. We're basically looking to add more on lower buy levels while minimizing and downside to the portfolio here.
Good luck my friends!
* * * Not investment advice * * *
XRPeePee Golden ShowersThat was a pretty gnarley selloff and came earlier than hoped but if you had at least one short bag then maybe you added some stablecoinage to your nut on the cover bounce? but obviously not UST.
These are treacherous time for crypto speculation and the dark pool whales have plenty of muscle to shake most weak hands from their stash.
Some things to consider as we look at this most recent inflection point, evidenced by both adjacent bottom and top wicks :
1. They want us out, obvi
2. Flash wicks still put our beloved XRP at risk of a return to the 20 cent days (and lower) so be really careful with stops (either really tight or super loose)
3. Some simple TA shows we've got big overhead with the VPFR around the $0.75 level
4. We're waaaay below our EMA's (50, 200)
5. Plans to fix UST could precipitate more selling
6. Volume on this bounce is average, not impressive like adjacent dump (coordinated institutional sharting)
Our plan here is to continue scalping (short and long) while adding to the long bags all the way down (buy when the blood is your own). We've got a fixed short bag to hedge against major owns (usually between 20% and 40% during bear cycles.
* * * not investment advice * * *
Stay frosty my dudes (and steer clear of salty BTC permabulls)
Box
XRP | The Mavericks of CryptoXRP is the Mavericks of crypto and you don't just paddle out into the swell thinking you're gonna charge into glory. Going over the falls or getting the eternal hold-down is the fate of many who don't respect, or understand what it is. True DeFi is a noble vision but as some have said "they will roll out their tanks" before they let us have our own currency. It's just not gonna happen, so may as well dive in and swim with the sharks because big fish eat little fish, the end.
Own the thing that everyone hates.
Not Investment Advice, DYOR, etc. . .
BTC Liquidity Grabbed. What's Next?Hey guys,
I hope you didn't get caught off guard today, I took full advantage of this situation and got some nice short term bounces out of AVAX and SOL.
We had a classic liquidity grab/flash crash combined with bad news, and all the alts got really cheap all of a sudden!
The cryptofluent team got in.
I will keep you all posted on BTC's next move.
Trade safe guys.
Global Markets Are Going To Collapse.It's finished. we see bullish signs but it is not enough the world is upside down and so will the markets be once they catch up to reality.
AMEX:VT
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
COINBASE:BTCUSD
AMEX:VTI
AMEX:SPY
OANDA:XAGUSD
OANDA:XAUUSD
TVC:USOIL
FOREXCOM:USDRUB
OANDA:USDCNH
SP:SPX
CURRENCYCOM:US100
XRP & Going Over the Falls (w/Bitty & the SPX)Flash wicks engulf!!
Been saying this since we had our last liquidation. I'd love to see a "V" bottom and scalp it (possibly Monday / Tuesday) "IF" the SPX 200 EMA holds support and makes a relief / rebound.
Again, NOT investment advice here and DYOR.
Stay frosty!
FB
Bitcoin Expires, can $37.3k support hold? or 29k BTC next?Howdy gang... plz thumbs up if you like the chart
quick update to show some simple price action and support levels while bitcoin broke down after a good push from the previous days US open
Clear head and shoulders, recent death cross techincals, long squeezes all contriubting to the bearish price right now, yet no need to panic...
if the level at 37.3K can hold, we may breathe a sigh of relief but if not then its open territory for bounces from the MA's or going as low as 29K, the previous years low
bulls will want to see this current level hold with RSI and indicators showing oversold on the daily - if price can get above 42k today, ill change my short term bearish vision
few differing fundamentals in favour and against, so hard to call in that area right now, lots of fear and panic, so time to be greedy, maybe go do some shopping!
as the cryptoride continues, don't get emotional and use this as a opportunity if you can
WHAT do YOU think? ....Hold at this level? 40k or towards 29k??? over the next week or so? Let us know below....
XRP | More Bearish Engulfment?As I've said in previous ideas, those long flash wicks down, tend to engulf and the last long wick was no different as we're seeing trade activity explore the lower breach. I'm neither bull nor bear as I take scalps on any action up or down BUT I see regulatory issues becoming problematic for crypto as a whole and the weight of dark pool liquidity being used to quash holders of monetary vehicles that compete with the junky USD and other fiat ridiculousness (FedCoin).
Permabulls may get some relief in the near term as cycle rallies ensue but we're got some beatdowns on tap along the way.
As always, do your own research and this is by no means "investment advice".
Good luck!
BTC Hitting Crucial SupportBTC Flash crash really took everyone by surprise here. We are now approaching a strong support zone and daily 200MA, I would like to see a bounce here.
Although we wicked down as far as 42k, buyers quickly pushed the price back above this support closing the daily candle yesterday at 49K.
There is potential for us to find a new support trendline just below the 200MA
If we lose these levels and potentially put in a lower low on the daily I will have to reassess my bullish idea for BTC .
Long term I am still bullish , Short term we need more data.
Verasity, checking for a new entry. Much better this time!Intro:
- Verasity (VRA) is a protocol and product layer platform for esports and video entertainment
- Verasity keeps building since 2017 and has planned to introduce NFT's to their platform during Q4 2021.
- In circulation we have 6 billion coins out of currently 10million possible.
- Total market cap is currently around 200 million and still has a lot of room to grow
Daily chart:
- Price took a hard hit during this flash crash and even shortly retested the 200MA. Currently we are below the yellow line and bull market support band. So a much better entry than last time.
- Volume stays relatively stable.
- RSI analysis shows that we are in a downtrend and are looking for a bounce back.
- Support lines are at 0.038$ and 0.01$.
- Resistance lines are at 0.062$ and 0.084$.
Expectation:
- Now that VRA has cooled off a lot we expect a consolidation phase before we bounce back up again.
- End of the year prediction: We will see a 0.2$+ VRA before the end of 2021.
Basic rules:
- Never buy the top/ ATH
- Take profit as long as you can (also partial profit is profit)
- Use Stop/loss for leveraged positions
- If you are not experienced, don't leverage in the first place
Enjoy the ride and don't be too greedy.
If you like the content, please like, comment and give this channel a follow.
We would love it if you could share your thoughts in the comments.
Discussions are very welcome here.
Always do your own research and keep in mind that my charts and comments cannot be considered financial advice.
Cheers
ps.
Chart explanation:
Main lines:
- Green lines are tested support lines.
- Orange lines are resistance lines or, if we are above, possible support lines which were not tested yet.
- Cyan line is for volume trendline.
- White lines are Fibonacci retracement levels
Helplines:
- Purple lines are trendlines we take a look at.
- Blue, green, white and pink lines are 200MA, 100MA, 50MA and 20MA.
- Yellow lines are for visual help only.
Specials:
- Boxes represent either entry zone or support zone . Check the description.
- Cameras represent MA crossings. Yellow camera stands for a golden cross while the cyan camera stands for a death cross.
Bitcoin flash crash! Time to panic? Not yet!General Intro:
- Bitcoin is the first of its kind as cryptocurrency using blockchain technology and is looked at a store of value like gold , just better.
- Bitcoin will help the people to bank themselves and gives some power back to the community.
- The whole crypto market follows in some way the movements of the Bitcoin price while being much more volatile.
Comments:
- Today we look at the weekly timeframe to reevaluate the current situation for Bitcoin and therefore for the whole market.
- We do see that once the bull market support band (green line is the 20 weeks simple moving average and red line is the 21 weeks exponential moving average) we dropped further down and even passed the 50MA.
- However, we did find support around 40k$ and recovered back to 47k$ where we now wiggled around for most of the day.
Why we should not panic yet:
- Technically we still could go up above 52k$ for the weekly close and the bull market support band would have held.
- We are currently above the 50MA. Once we cross the 50MA we have to reconsider things again and possibly turn bearish.
- The last >200 days basically represent a large consolidation phase where we move between the two thick green and orange price lines (between 30k and 63k).
- Fundamentals did not change and the reserves on the exchanges continue to drop.
Daily chart:
- Price shows a flash crash down to around 40k$ depending on the exchange you are looking.
- Volume is on a steady decline since Mai. This supports the idea that we are in a large consolidation and accumulation phase.
- RSI analysis shows that we are in some sort of consolidation between the yellow lines.
- Moving Average: Currently we are below the 20MA and above the 50MA which can be considered a due or die situation.
- Fibonacci levels show that we are currently hovering above the 0.5 which technically is still bullish.
- Support lines are at 41k$ and 30k$.
- Resistance lines are around 63k$. Afterwards we are free to fly.
Expectation:
- We currently expect the price to go up towards the 53k$ line within this week to technically hold the bull market support band.
- If we can't hold the bull market support band it seems likely that we retest the 50MA again in the near future.
Basic rules:
- Never buy the top/ ATH
- Take profit as long as you can (also partial profit is profit)
- Use Stop/loss for leveraged positions
- If you are not experienced, don't leverage in the first place
Enjoy the ride and don't be too greedy.
If you like the content, please like, comment and give this channel a follow.
We would love it if you could share your thoughts in the comments.
Discussions are very welcome here.
Always do your own research and keep in mind that my charts and comments cannot be considered financial advice.
Cheers
ps.
Chart explanation:
Main lines:
- Green lines are tested support lines.
- Orange lines are resistance lines or, if we are above, possible support lines which were not tested yet.
- Cyan line is for volume trendline.
- White lines are Fibonacci retracement levels
Helplines:
- Purple lines are trendlines we take a look at.
- Blue, green, white and pink lines are 200MA, 100MA, 50MA and 20MA.
- The bull market support band showing a green line representing the 20 weeks simple moving average and a red line representing the 21 weeks exponential moving average
- Yellow lines are for visual help only.
Specials:
- Boxes represent either entry zone or support zone . Check the description.
- Cameras represent MA crossings. Yellow camera stands for a golden cross while the cyan camera stands for a death cross.