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Fundamental Analysis

Gold Expectation before NFPGold has formed a bearish flag pattern on the 4-hour timeframe and is currently trading within the price channel representing the flag. The metal has reached the upper boundary of the pattern, which aligns with the supply zone (2660–2666). If gold remains below this zone, it is expected to decline again toward the levels of 2650.00 and 2645.00. In the event of breaking the 2645.00 level and closing below it, further downside is anticipated, potentially targeting 2622.00, 2614.00, 2610.00, and eventually 2600.00. However, if gold breaches the 2666 level and closes above it, we might see a move back toward the 2725 level. Goodluck .
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Ahmedragab
Gas panic in Europe: reserves depleting at record paceEurope is facing unprecedented depletion of gas reserves due to cold weather and technical challenges. According to EU gas storage data, storage levels have fallen to 70%, significantly lower than last year’s 86%. Analysts note that this situation is unique in the last seven years. Adding to the strain, Norway’s Hammerfest plant, which supplies liquefied natural gas (LNG), has halted operations due to compressor issues. This suspension intensifies pressure on the gas market, especially in light of the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine. The European gas market is set for potential price increases in the coming months. Current storage challenges and reduced supply volumes heighten the likelihood of price hikes, particularly if the cold weather persists. Additionally, the reduction in Russian gas supplies forces the EU to compete more aggressively for LNG on the global market. Advantages of investing in #GAS in 2025: Rising energy demand: Increased gas consumption during the winter and limited supply create conditions for sustained price growth. Investing in #GAS could yield high returns during the current energy crisis. Global LNG competition: Europe and Asia are actively competing for access to LNG. This boosts market liquidity and enhances its appeal to traders and investors. Inflation hedge: Energy resources, including gas, are a traditional way to protect investments from inflation risks. Transition to LNG: As part of supply diversification, Europe is increasing the share of LNG in its energy mix, supporting demand for gas futures. High volatility: Significant price fluctuations present possibilities for short-term profits, particularly amidst geopolitical instability and weather anomalies. Analysts at FreshForex believe that 2025 is the ideal time to invest in #GAS! Limited reserves, high demand, and volatility create perfect conditions for substantial profits. Don’t miss the chance to capitalize on the year’s leading energy resource!
FXOPEN:XNGUSDLong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
The Clever Investor's Bull Case For Nike's NosediveNike NYSE:NKE has long been a household name, a symbol of global athletic excellence, and a stalwart of blue-chip stocks. Yet, the past few years have painted a picture far from the company’s iconic swoosh. Currently trading at $71.29 on the NYSE , Nike is reeling from a series of missteps that prompted analysts, including Zacks, to designate it as a Strong Sell . So, what happened? And more importantly, could this bear case hold the seeds of a bull case for forward-thinking investors? A Painful Lesson in Hubris During the COVID-19 online retail boom, Nike made the bold decision to pivot sharply away from its traditional merchant relationships, aiming to dominate the direct-to-consumer (DTC) space. On paper, it was a savvy move. E-commerce was flourishing, and cutting out middlemen promised higher margins. But the reality was far from Nike’s vision. The decision alienated long-time merchant partners, disrupted sales channels, and, ultimately, led to a steep plunge in revenue. The stock followed suit, spiraling downward and rattling investor confidence. Nike’s story became a cautionary tale of shortsighted strategy, proving that even giants can stumble. The Reset: A Glimpse of Hope? Acknowledging its mistakes, Nike has made significant leadership changes. The most notable? The return of Elliott Hill , a company veteran who first walked through Nike’s doors as an intern in 1980. Hill’s comeback signals a return to the company’s roots, potentially reigniting the brand’s foundational values and reconnecting with its core audiences. Could Hill’s presence mark the beginning of a turnaround story for Nike? If he can channel the magic that once made Nike a global powerhouse, the brand’s resurgence could rival some of the most compelling comebacks in corporate history. Undervalued or Overlooked? Here’s where the story takes an interesting turn for investors. At $71.29 , Nike’s current share price sits well below the average analyst projection of $84.17 and far from the high-end target of $120 . This significant gap raises the question: Is the market over-discounting Nike’s potential? Consider this: Despite recent missteps, Nike remains a blue-chip stock with a global footprint, brand recognition, and membership in the prestigious Dow Jones Index . For dividend-focused investors, Nike’s recovery could signal not just capital appreciation but also the potential for dividend increases as the company regains its footing. Could this make Nike an attractive opportunity for those with the patience to look several years down the line? A Strategic Play: LEAPS Options Likeminded investors intrigued by Nike’s potential but wary of committing significant capital to the stock outright might find value in a LEAPS options strategy . Consider the January 16, 2026, call option with a $70 strike price . It boasts an implied volatility of 30.6685, an open interest sitting at 1,547, and a daily traded volume of 68—demonstrating decent liquidity for a contract set to expire one year out. That’s plenty of time for Nike to hit one of the analyst targets. Let’s dig into this. Scenario Analysis — Account size: $100,000 | Max Risk: 4% (aggressive) | Analyst 1-year price target @ $120 1. Starter Position Because some liquidity was already absorbed at the current price level, some investors might be inclined to wait for price to drop below $70. At that point, we might secure a Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities (LEAPS) contract with the better strike price of $70. The options chain tells us we might expect to pay a $10 premium for such a contract. With a maximum 4% risk, we can secure 50% of our position here, meaning we’d spend $2,000 to control $14,000 worth of equity in blue-chip Nike stock. 2. Final Position The next position we might be interested in adding is at the $65 level. This would account for the lower half of the liquidity imbalance. In many cases, the market may not even penetrate that deeply. However, the tide is against us here, which is why we are being more careful with how we build our position, regardless of the risk-aversion benefits of using options contracts. Estimating from the options chain, we might expect to pay another $10 in premium for the $65 strike price. This brings our total cost of this position to $4,000. 3. Risk Management One of the reasons I love simple options strategies like this is because the risk is built into the contract. In other words, if the stock absolutely plummets to zero, the most we stand to lose is $4,000 in this example, versus $27,000 if we were to buy the shares outright. This is the primary reason options contracts are the preferred method of acquisition for institutions. You just can’t beat the risk management. Don’t you wish you had 372 days to be right on every trade with a downside capped to a fraction of what you normally risk? Exactly. 4. Exit Strategy 1: Because I believe in Nike’s comeback story, I’d be willing to hold this trade for the high analyst projection of $120. By the time these levels are reached, investors usually have a change of heart. Additionally, I’d be inclined to keep my shares if we do happen to reach $120 in a year. This way, I can generate income through covered calls/puts without risking my capital. If the stock falls to discounted levels again, I’d be inclined to buy more using a similar strategy. 5. Exit Strategy 2: If we wanted to realize the capital gains from this trade, we could simply liquidate the two contracts for a potential gain or execute the contracts to capture the gains directly. Here’s what would happen in the latter case: On our $70 position, we paid a $10 premium. The price of each of those shares is now worth $120. Subtracting our premium and strike price from the target price, we’re left with a potential profit of $8,000 ($40 in profit per share × 200 shares) for our starter position. On our $65 position, we paid a $10 premium. The price of each of those shares is now worth $120 as well. Subtracting our premium and strike price from the target price, we’re left with a potential profit of $9,000 ($45 in profit per share × 200 shares) for our final position. That leaves us with a total profit of $17,000 (minus transaction fees). Meanwhile, we only ever risked 4% of our account—or $4,000—and had a whole year to be right. Not bad, right? Risk Aversion With Options Investors should be aware that the maximum risk is the premium paid for the option. If Nike does not reach its intended targets by the expiration date, the premium could be lost entirely. However, with the flexibility to sell the contract before expiration if conditions change, this strategy offers multiple exit points to mitigate risk. This approach allows investors to position themselves for potential upside while risking only a defined percentage of their account—in this case, 4% of total account size . Betting on Leadership and Legacy While the past may haunt Nike’s valuation today, its future may hinge on leadership—and that’s where Elliott Hill’s return is especially intriguing. Nike is betting on his deep understanding of the company’s DNA to restore the trust and innovation that have historically defined the brand. If Hill can effectively bridge the gap between tradition and modernity, could Nike regain the compelling flame that once set it apart? The Bigger Picture Zooming out, the broader retail sector is stabilizing after years of disruption. As supply chains normalize and consumer spending shifts post-pandemic, there may be a window for Nike to execute a well-timed rebound. Investors have seen this before: beaten-down companies surprising the market with a revival that rewards those willing to take the risk. Final Thought: Risk or Reward? Nike’s bear case is clear, but so is its potential. The decisions that led to its downturn are being addressed, and its leadership is realigning to focus on long-term growth. The stock’s current valuation may reflect fear, but what if it’s actually an opportunity disguised as risk? Could this be the moment when contrarian investors start looking at Nike not as a struggling giant, but as a phoenix waiting to rise? History has shown that the market rewards those who can see beyond the headlines. Could Nike’s bear case be the bull story lying in wait? For those with patience and vision, the next chapter might be worth watching closely. What’s your take on Nike’s potential comeback? Would a LEAPS options strategy make sense for you? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! General Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment advice. The information provided does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities, nor does it take into account your specific financial situation, objectives, or risk tolerance. The views expressed are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Investing involves risks, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. For personalized investment recommendations, please consult a licensed financial advisor. The author assumes no liability for actions taken based on the information provided in this post.
NYSE:NKELong
by FoxxEquity
XAUUSD NFP ANALYSIS 10-01-2025 #SEMS #SAGAAHELITE🚨 XAUUSD (Spot Gold) NFP DAY 🔖 10-1-2025 🚨 Sell at: $2692-$2712-$2734-$2754 Buy at: $2640-$2625-$2600-$2580 CMP - $2679.45 (as of writing) 📈 ⚠️Warning: Do not risk more than 5% of your capital. Trading in gold and other financial markets involves significant risk and may result in substantial losses. 🚨📝Data scheduled to be published at 19:00 hrs 9:00 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Dec) 4.0% 4.0% 19:00 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Dec) 0.3% 0.4% 19:00 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) 164K 227K 19:00 USD Participation Rate (Dec) 62.5% 19:00 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) 135K 194K 19:00 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Dec) 7.8% 19:00 USD Unemployment Rate (Dec) 4.2% 4.2% Gold Prices Set for Weekly Gain Amid Anticipation of US Jobs Data Gold prices remained near a four-week high on Friday, positioning for their best weekly performance since mid-November. Investors are closely watching upcoming U.S. jobs data to assess the Federal Reserve's potential pace of interest rate cuts throughout the year. ________________________________________ Treasury Yields and Market Dynamics Open Interest and Rising Yields Recent shifts in open interest data on US 10-year note futures show that traders have consistently increased their bets on higher yields daily since the start of the year. This trend has driven the 10-year yield closer to 5%, reflecting a growing appetite for bearish positions in the Treasury market. • 20-Year Yield: Surpassed 5% for the first time since 2023, driven by concerns over potential inflationary pressures and wider fiscal deficits linked to President-elect Donald Trump’s policy proposals. • 30-Year Yield: Climbed to 4.96%, while the 10-year yield rose to nearly 4.73%, approaching its highest levels since November 2023. These moves are consistent with trends observed in both the UK and emerging markets, where yields have similarly surged. ________________________________________ Markets Await Crucial Employment Data Amid Recession Fears Investors remain on edge as they await the release of key employment figures, a critical indicator that could signal the trajectory of the U.S. economy and the potential onset of a recession. The 10-year Treasury yield, a bellwether for economic sentiment, is hovering near its highest point since April, highlighting market anxiety over upcoming data.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by sagaahhelite
Crude oil surges higherCrude oil shot higher in early trade this morning. Front-month WTI has added close to 3% and has surged back above $75 per barrel. This takes the price back up to levels last seen on 10th October, and the move adds legs to the current rally which began before the Christmas break. Credit for the latest strong upside move is being given to the freezing weather conditions across Europe and in parts of the US. The situation isn’t improved by concerns of low inventories. At the same time, this three week rally has seen the daily MACD push up into territory last seen in early July, when front-month WTI was trading above $83. Prices subsequently fell back sharply. While the immediate fundamentals are quite different now compared to the summer, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see some sort of pullback and consolidation. At the same time, markets can continue to run at overbought, or oversold, levels for much longer than often seems reasonable.
TRADENATION:WTI
by TradeNation
NASDAQ - In preparation for the great Q4 earnings!Hi guys, we would take a look into the NASDAQ 100 today. Currently we have some of the biggest companies which will show their Q4 earnings by the end of January, just to name a few - Microsoft,AMD,Netflix,Google,JP Morgan,BlackRock,TSM,Tesla These companies represent a very big portion of the NASDAQ Composite, and if they deliver some great numbers this would give the necessary boost that we need to push the price towards our target. Currently from a fundamental perspective these earning calls , would end up providing the necessary benefitiary to boost up the prices , due to the sheer volume that would be generated. From a Technical perspective : We can see that the price is currently situated on a very strong support level, with an additional boost from the RSI indicator which is showcasing a formulation of an Ascending pattern ahead. Entry: 21,135 Target 1: 21,500 Target 2: 21,855 Target 3: 22,350 As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
IG:NASDAQLong
by DG55Capital
Market Outlook for Next Week (US):Key Catalysts to Watch: Earnings Reports: Major U.S. banks, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup, will release their Q4 2024 earnings next week. These reports will provide critical insights into the financial sector's health and could drive significant market movements. Economic Data: Updates on corporate profits and other macroeconomic indicators will be closely monitored. Recent data showed a decline in U.S. corporate profits (-0.4%), suggesting potential headwinds for business performance. Federal Reserve Statements: Investors will look for signals from the Fed on monetary policy, particularly regarding future rate hikes or pauses. Any comments related to inflation or labor market strength could sway market sentiment. Outlook: Given these catalysts, heightened volatility is expected. Markets may face headwinds if corporate earnings disappoint or if Fed commentary hints at continued hawkishness. However, stronger-than-expected earnings or dovish Fed signals could provide tailwinds for equities. Overall, next week’s direction will likely depend on a mix of earnings surprises and macroeconomic data outcomes.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeTools
USDCAD Possible LongW1 : Bullish D1 : Bullish 4H : Bullish Market Structure 1H : Currently Bearish Narrative : Price is currently Coming out of weekly IMB by sweeping Previously weekly low > We had a Daily IMB in the way that got violated by 4H PA and retracing back to the 4H OB after tapping into 4H Area of struggle > 1H is currently Bearish Entry Pattern : Currently Hourly Price action is bearish retracing back to 4H OB, after coming inside the OB we can look for some sort bullish sign to enter long position. First context target can be simply 1:2RR / Weak High. Eventually Price can attack Realtive Equal Highs on Top since there are no AOS upside.
Long
by nptrade24
BTC/USD will continue bullish move read caption..Hello fellow traders, I have prepared buying setup for BTC/USD, it will move further upside and continue the bullish trend. This is what i think and have prepared for it what do you think share your ideas about it in comment section. Key levels: Entry from; 94885 Target; 98167 SL at; 92400 Kindly support me guys, like comment and share ideas with your friends. Note: As always it is for educational purpose not a trading advice.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Jacks_Trading_Service
1
an update on USDT's DominanceCRYPTOCAP:USDT.D ✅ Tether Dominance once again reacted to the 4.40 supply range and broke the hourly uptrend line after consecutive bearish divergences👌 ✅ It can currently record a corrective wave to the demand range of 4.10 to 4.16 👍 ✅ Tether dominance is also fluctuating in the daily trading range of 3.73 to 4.60, and the next upward wave of the market will begin with the breakdown of the 3.73 support 👌 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always manage your risks and trade responsibly. 👉 Follow me for daily updates, 💬 Comment and like to share your thoughts, 📌 And check the link in my bio for even more resources! Let’s navigate the markets together—join the journey today! 💹✨
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by Cryptonic_Trading
3
XAUUSD - The NFP indicator will determine the direction of gold!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. In case of weakness in the data of the employment market and increase in the unemployment rate, you can look for opportunities to buy gold. A lower-than-expected unemployment rate release and a strong NFP headline will lead to a breakout of the bullish and bearish channel in gold. While most major economies are expected to pursue expansionary monetary policies this year, the pace of these measures will likely slow. According to Bloomberg’s forecast, the overall interest rate index in advanced economies is projected to decrease by only 72 basis points in 2025, which is lower than the rate of decline in 2024. Donald Trump, with his electoral promises and economic policies, has become a source of concern for central banks worldwide.If Trump enforces his threats to impose trade tariffs, these policies could harm economic growth and, in the case of retaliatory measures, drive up consumer prices. Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) highlighted the “complex” impacts of Trump’s proposed tariffs on metal prices in a recent note. The proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada—two of the main suppliers of metals to the U.S.—are expected to have both direct and indirect effects on the market. The bank identified two main concerns. First, the potential negative impact on global growth and the fundamentals of the metals market, particularly if the tariffs escalate into a full-blown trade war. However, BofA predicts that a more “measured approach to trade barriers is likely to prevail,” which would mitigate the overall damage. Second, regional metal prices will need to adjust to the potential tariffs. Bank of America warned that tariffs could strengthen the dollar, increase inflation, and lead to higher interest rates—all of which could pose challenges for the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, they concluded that metal prices are likely to stabilize after the initial volatility subsides, especially if the tariffs are targeted and investments in energy transition continue. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, downplayed expectations of continued monetary easing in 2025 during his December 18, 2024, press conference. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester’s dissenting vote against a rate cut was surprising, but the major shock to markets came from the Fed members’ projections (dot plot). The Fed members forecast only two rate cuts for 2025, signaling that the monetary easing cycle, which began in September 2024, will slow significantly in the coming year. Powell also admitted that inflation forecasts for the end of the year had been overly optimistic, suggesting that inflation is not yet fully under control. The Fed is increasingly concerned about Trump’s policies, as tools like tariffs could raise import prices and, subsequently, inflation. Forecasts for Friday’s NFP data: • Average estimate: 165K • Lowest estimate: 120K • Highest estimate: 190K The importance of the labor market for monetary policy has slightly diminished following Powell’s December 18 press conference. This indicates that the Fed has some confidence in easing price pressures stemming from the labor market. However, recent data suggests that the labor market has not fully cooled. The upcoming NFP report is expected to show a 160,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, while the unemployment rate and hourly wage growth are likely to remain steady at 4.2% and 4%, respectively. If these expectations are unmet, especially with job growth below 50,000, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in Q1 2025 will increase. Currently, markets anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut by June 2025, but this move could occur sooner if labor market data remains weak.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
COSTCO - Time to break above and beyond the All time HighHi guys , today we are going to overview one of the retail giants COSTCO. Fundamentals : Revenue Growth and Profitability : Consistent Revenue Growth: Costco has demonstrated steady revenue growth, driven by an expanding membership base, increased same-store sales, and international expansion. Profit Margins: While Costco operates with low gross margins due to its focus on low pricing, its operating margins benefit significantly from recurring membership income. This structure ensures financial stability even in competitive environments. Financial Health: Balance Sheet Strength: Costco has a strong balance sheet with manageable debt levels and ample liquidity. Its ability to generate robust free cash flow supports both operations and shareholder returns. Dividend Growth: Costco pays a reliable dividend, which has seen consistent growth over the years. Additionally, the company occasionally issues special dividends, highlighting its commitment to returning value to shareholders Valuation Metrics: Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Costco often trades at a premium valuation compared to peers due to its consistent performance and strong brand equity. Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio: Reflecting its robust revenue generation capabilities, Costco’s P/S ratio is higher than the retail industry average but supported by predictable growth. And some potential risks : Thin Margins: Costco’s low-margin strategy leaves little room for error, and rising costs (e.g., labor, logistics) could pressure profitability. Economic Sensitivity: While generally resilient, Costco could face challenges if economic conditions significantly impact discretionary spending or if competition intensifies. Foreign Exchange Risk: With international operations, Costco is exposed to currency fluctuations that could affect earnings. Technical analysis : The company has been running on a very healthy uptrend throughought 2024 and has had 4 green earning seasons which gives a positive bullish trend conversion,with analysists focusing on another green earnings in their Q4 report this gives us the necessary confirmations for a up-trend: Entry has been made at : 921 Target will be above the ATH : 1030 As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
NASDAQ:COSTLong
by DG55Capital
2
Ready for more gains? Is Ethereum’s next target $4150?Hello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts, ✌ In several of my previous analyses, I have accurately identified and hit all of the gain targets. In this analysis, I aim to provide you with a comprehensive overview of the future price potential for Ethereum , 📚🎇 After a few days of movement outside its established range, the price has once again returned to the parallel channel it had previously formed. Given this development, I foresee additional upward momentum from the channel’s lower boundary, with further targets positioned higher. This price action suggests a continuation of the trend, supported by a clear trendline that marks the final target. The trendline serves as a reliable reference for projecting the potential price trajectory moving forward. Consequently, the outlook remains bullish, with the expectation of continued gains. 📚💡 🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨 After several days, the price has returned to its previous parallel channel, and I expect further upward movement from the lower boundary, with the final target confirmed by a clear trendline. Give me some energy !! ✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box. Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Long
by MadWhale
9
Just do it or think twice? Nike $NKE1/ 🏀 Just do it or think twice? Is Nike ( NYSE:NKE ) a sleeper opportunity or a misstep in the market? Let’s break it down and find out if it’s time to lace up for this stock! 👟📊 2/ 📉 Revenue's down, and the stock’s P/E ratio of 22.94 might not scream "bargain," but there’s more to the story. Is Nike more than just numbers? Let’s unpack it. 🤔 3/ 🌟 Strengths: Nike’s brand is legendary with global reach, unmatched marketing, and a legacy of innovation that keeps athletes loyal. But does the market fully see this? 🏆 4/ ⚠️ Weaknesses: A heavy reliance on outsourced manufacturing, recent growth slowdowns, and critiques of its digital strategy. Can Nike pivot and adapt? 🔄 5/ 🌍 Opportunities: Emerging markets, sustainability initiatives, and the upcoming Olympics could provide a serious boost. Will these catalysts fuel a recovery? 🏅 6/ 🔥 Threats: Intense competition, potential economic downturns, and the constant need to stay ahead in innovation. How will Nike navigate this storm? 🌪️ 7/ 📈 Compared to peers, Nike’s valuation looks attractive—if you’re betting on a brand comeback. But how does growth stack up against expectations? 💡 8/ 🚀 At DCAlpha, we’re Dollar Cost Averaging into NYSE:NKE because we believe its story isn’t over; this is just a new chapter. Are you ready to join us on this run? 📚 9/ ⚖️ Risk vs. Reward: Nike’s unmatched brand resilience vs. its current market challenges. Does the balance tip in favor of your portfolio? 🧮 10/ 🎨 Nike isn’t just about shoes; it’s culture, lifestyle, and global influence. Does this intangible value play into your investment thesis? 🌍 11/ 📢 Your take: Is NYSE:NKE a diamond in the rough or a cautionary tale? Join the discussion and share your perspective with us! 🧵
NYSE:NKELong
by DCAChampion