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Fundamental Analysis

Nobody appreciates it !!!Following the recent significant decline, DOGE has now developed an ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart, which might indicate a bullish trend. Keep in mind that this analysis is based on the daily time frame. ............................................ The Crypto Market Game: How to Win Against Fear and Manipulation Did you really think profiting from the current bull run (a comprehensive upward market) would be easy? Don't be naive. Do you think they’ll let you buy low, hold, and sell high without any struggle? If it were that simple, everyone would be rich. But the truth is: 90% of you will lose. Why? Because the crypto market is not designed for everyone to win. They will shake you. They will make you doubt everything. They will create panic, causing you to sell at the worst possible moment. Do you know what happens next? The best players in this game buy when there’s fear, not sell—because your panic gives them cheap assets. This is how the game works: strong hands feed off weak hands. They exaggerate every dip, every correction, every sell-off. They make it look like the end of the world so you abandon everything. And when the market rises again, you’re left sitting there asking, “What just happened?” This is not an accident. It’s a system. The market rewards patience and punishes weak emotions. The big players already know your thoughts. They know exactly when and how to stir fear, forcing you to give up. When you panic, they profit. They don’t just play the market—they play you. That’s why most people never succeed: they fall into the same traps over and over again. People don’t realize that dips, FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt), and panic are all part of the plan. But the winners? They block out the noise. They know that fear is temporary, but smart decisions last forever. We’ve seen this play out hundreds of times. They pump the market after you sell. They take your assets, hold them, and sell them back to you at the top—leaving you with nothing, wondering how it happened. Don’t play their game. Play your own. .................................................................................. Give me some energy !! ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Long
by CobraVanguard
7
Copper - Markets are waiting for Trump's decisions!In the 4-hour timeframe, copper is above the EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its descending channel. Copper moved down from the supply zone of the previous analysis. The downward correction of copper will provide us with the opportunity to buy it with the appropriate risk reward. If the upward trend continues, you can sell copper in the next supply zone. According to experts, commodity prices are expected to decline in 2025 due to a weak global economic outlook and the resurgence of the US dollar. Analysts at Deutsche Bank have identified three key political developments in their latest report that could shape the strategy of US President-elect Donald Trump. These developments include changes in tariff policies, Trump’s preference for introducing a large, comprehensive bill, and his plan to fund tax cuts through tariffs. Deutsche Bank notes that the year will largely be influenced by the combination of policies Trump proposes. However, it seems unlikely that a comprehensive bill addressing both border and tax issues will be ready before April or May. Experts believe that Trump is likely to use Section 232 investigations to impose sector-specific tariffs. These investigations allow the government to implement tariffs on the grounds of national security. Deutsche Bank forecasts that Trump will employ multiple tariff approaches, including legislative and executive actions. Analysts suggest that Trump may attempt to enact broader tariffs through legislation, as this is the only way tariff revenues can be incorporated into the budget reconciliation process by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Two key bills in Congress related to the revocation of China’s normal trade status have been highlighted as important areas to monitor in this regard. This multi-faceted approach and the varying timelines for imposing tariffs introduce significant complexities and risks. However, from a financial perspective, Deutsche Bank predicts that Trump’s fiscal policies may have more moderate impacts, potentially easing some of the existing tensions. Markets are also watching for further moves by China to stimulate its economy in hopes that such measures might revive demand for commodities in the world’s second-largest economy. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has announced plans to cut interest rates and required bank reserves. However, the market is looking for more tangible actions to directly support consumers, rather than simply increasing public sector wages. In other words, the market seeks renewed confidence and vitality in the economy. Nonetheless, the lack of transparency in China’s economy remains a pressing issue. Even within China and among government officials, there appears to be no clear understanding of the economic situation. Public sentiment remains highly negative and has not recovered since the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite these challenges, China continues to excel in certain sectors. For instance, the country has achieved notable success in the automotive and artificial intelligence industries. Additionally, China is still considered the easiest place in the world to manufacture anything. However, these advantages ultimately need to translate into improved domestic consumption to create lasting positive effects. In a note, BMI stated that potential slowdowns in the energy transition due to Trump’s policy changes could dampen the green energy sentiment that bolstered prices in 2024. John Gross, president of John Gross Consulting, told CNBC that while copper prices peaked in May 2024 due to market pressures, they have since been in a downward trend, which is expected to continue. He added, “A complex combination of high inflation, elevated interest rates, and a strong dollar will negatively impact metal markets.”
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by Ali_PSND
Will History Repeat as Major Currencies Dance Toward Parity?In a dramatic shift that has captured the attention of global financial markets, the euro-dollar relationship stands at a historic crossroads, with leading institutions forecasting potential parity by 2025. This seismic development, triggered by Donald Trump's November election victory and amplified by mounting geopolitical tensions, signals more than just a currency fluctuation—it represents a fundamental realignment of global financial power dynamics. The confluence of diverging monetary policies between the U.S. and Europe and persistent economic challenges in Germany's industrial heartland has created a perfect storm in currency markets. European policymakers face the delicate task of maintaining supportive measures. At the same time, their American counterparts adopt a more cautious stance, setting the stage for what could become a defining moment in modern financial history. This potential currency convergence carries implications far beyond trading desks. It challenges traditional assumptions about economic power structures and reevaluates global investment strategies. As geopolitical tensions escalate and economic indicators paint an increasingly complex picture, market participants must navigate a landscape where historical precedents offer limited guidance. The journey toward potential parity serves as a compelling reminder that in today's interconnected financial world, currency movements reflect not just economic fundamentals but the broader forces reshaping our global order. Conclusion The current landscape presents unprecedented challenges for the EUR/USD pair, driven by economic fundamentals and geopolitical tensions. One significant concern is the potential release of sensitive footage from Israel (by the Israeli National Security Agency (NSA) from Hamas body cameras, containing graphic atrocities from the October 7th incident.), which could threaten European stability. These developments go beyond simple market dynamics and have the potential to reshape the social and political fabric of Europe. Market professionals emphasize the importance of adaptable strategies and the vigilant monitoring of key indicators. Investors must prepare for increased volatility while maintaining strong risk management frameworks. The pressure on the euro-dollar relationship is likely to persist, making strategic positioning and careful market analysis more crucial than ever in navigating these turbulent waters.
Short
by UDIS_View
GBPUSD -Dollar, employment indicators or tariff news?!The GBPUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of upward correction of the currency pair, it is possible to sell this currency pair within the specified supply zone. If the downward trend continues due to the release of economic data this week, we can see the demand zone and buy within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. The yield on the UK’s 30-year bonds reached 5.22%, the highest level since 1998. This surge followed the sale of similar maturity bonds and heightened concerns about the large issuance of government debt. The UK government plans to issue £297 billion in bonds during the current fiscal year, marking the second-highest figure in the country’s history. This substantial issuance has exerted significant pressure on the bond market and raised fears about mounting national debt. Moreover, expectations of a smaller rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) have added further strain to the bond market. The UK government faces a considerable challenge in balancing the need to gain investors’ trust while managing its growing debt burden. The market remains overshadowed by the controversial 2022 budget under Liz Truss, the former Conservative Prime Minister. Meanwhile, recent data has led to improved economic forecasts. Real personal consumption expenditure growth for Q4 is now expected to rise from 3% to 3.3%, while projections for real private domestic investment growth have improved from -0.9% to -0.6%. Additionally, the contribution of net exports to real GDP growth in Q4 has been revised upward from 0.07% to 0.11%. Goldman Sachs has reduced its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts in 2025 from 100 basis points to 75 basis points. The bank does not anticipate that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies will result in rate hikes. Goldman Sachs notes that core inflation is declining and remains skeptical about Trump’s policy changes having a significant impact on interest rates. According to a report by The Washington Post, Trump may impose tariffs that are more limited in scope than he had promised during his campaign. This news has led to a decline in the value of the US dollar. Such reactions are likely to recur as more details about the tariffs are announced. Reports of lower tariffs typically weaken the dollar. But what happens if higher tariffs are imposed, such as those targeting China? Chris Meissner from Santa Clara University believes, “The Chinese yuan will appear weaker relative to the US dollar, which will strengthen the dollar to offset part of the direct tariff impact.” Olivier Jeanne, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, stated, “A stronger dollar benefits American consumers by lowering the cost of imports.” He added, “It is also advantageous for American tourists traveling abroad when the dollar is strong.” However, he cautioned that this is detrimental to the export sector, as a stronger dollar means other countries would need more of their own currency to purchase American goods. With approximately two weeks remaining until Trump’s inauguration, the threats surrounding his proposed tariff plans have already introduced stress into the global trade system and created uncertainties regarding inflation and interest rate trends.
Short
by Ali_PSND
2
EURNZD Developing in a Large Range Trading Movement -UpdateEURNZD Developing in a Large Range Trading Movement -Update EURNZD is currently developing a significant range trading movement. The price has been oscillating between 1.7500 and 1.8500 for about 600 days, with a trading range of nearly 1000 pips, which is quite substantial. EURNZD has reached the top of the structure again, and it appears that the bearish trend may resume, as it has in the past. The price may not move immediately, but it is already in a critical zone. Support zones on the way down are located near 1.8250, 1.8090, 1.7830, and 1.7500. ✅Our previous analysis remains valid. The price has reacted and is now down nearly 100 pips. While it needs to develop further, and this process may take some time, the initial price reaction appears promising. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by KlejdiCuni
5
BTC/USD bearish setup (read caption)..Hello fellow traders what about BTC will it fall down as I have prepared the setup for it, and share your opinions in comments. My setup is based upon the above chart read it carefully and share your thoughts.. This 4-hour BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) chart outlines a potential price action scenario: 1. Peak Resistance ( 102,708 ): The chart highlights a crucial resistance level. If Bitcoin breaks above this level, the bullish trend may resume. 2. Entry Zone (100,746) : A yellow zone suggests an area where traders might consider entering sell positions if the price gets rejected at resistance. 3. Bearish Target (98540) : The green zone indicates a potential target for the downward move if the price fails to break the resistance and begins a bearish reversal. The chart emphasizes monitoring the reaction at the peak resistance to determine whether the trend will remain bullish or reversed to bearish. Kindly like, comment and support me guys.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Jacks_Trading_Service
1
Silver trend line breaks and it will be bearish (read caption)Hello dear traders and trading view usera I have prepared setup for silver and I want your reviews about it in comment section. My setup is what is written below read and then share your thoughts about it. This is a 1-hour price chart for XAG/USD Silver Trend Line Break : A red ascending trendline is drawn, and the yellow highlight indicates a breakout above this trendline. Target After Breakout : Following the breakout, the price target is suggested below at approximately $30.00, indicating a potential retracement or price movement downward. This chart I have made suggests that a breakout has occurred, which you might interpret as a signal for a change in trend. Kindly support me.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Jacks_Trading_Service
GOLD → The calm before the storm. What to expect?FX:XAUUSD is consolidating above 2645 and trying to test the strong resistance of 2664. Downside risks are quite high and it may happen after liquidity capture. Gold has high risks due to yesterday's favorable data in the US. Hawkish expectations for the Fed, strong economic data put the dollar back on the northbound train. Markets priced in a 35% chance of a Fed interest rate cut this month. Trump takes office on Jan. 20 and his proposed tariffs and protectionist policies are seen as inflationary, requiring higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar. If risk aversion intensifies amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East or Trump's tariff threats, that could send gold higher A symmetrical triangle is forming on D1, which confuses everyone - where will the price go? And all because the technical situation is neutral. Resistance levels: 2664, 2674 Support levels: 2645, 2632. False breakdown of resistance can provoke a fall to the strong support, the border of the triangle. Gold is growing reluctantly and slowly, as if something is in the way, and the risks and pressure are increasing. BUT! If the price goes to 2664, it is important to watch the price reaction to this level: consolidation above the level may provoke further growth to 2674. Similarly with the support of 2645 Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
6
Gold Long Term and Short TermGold Analysis and Trading Plan Gold prices saw mixed movement yesterday, gaining 0.50% and trading around $2,648. Market dynamics were driven by solid US economic data, improved services sector activity, and President-elect Donald Trump’s remarks, which boosted the US Dollar and capped Gold's rise. Key Developments: Strong US jobs data and increased business activity in services reduced expectations for further Fed rate cuts. China’s central bank increased Gold reserves for the second consecutive month, supporting bullish sentiment. US Treasury yields remain elevated, bolstering the Greenback. Upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will likely provide the next major catalyst for Gold's movement. Technical Analysis: Short-term: Gold is forming a double top pattern around the $2,665 resistance level. A rejection here could indicate potential downside. Long-term: Gold is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, with a bullish breakout signaling a continuation of the uptrend. Key Levels: Resistance: $2,665 (double top), $2,675, $2,700 Support: $2,624 (near-term), $2,612 (lower range of the triangle), $2,580 Trading Plan: Breakout Strategy: If Gold breaks above $2,665, it may target $2,700 and higher levels. On a downside breakout below $2,612, watch for a move toward $2,580. NFP Impact: The NFP report on Friday could drive significant volatility and provide clarity for the breakout direction. Use it to refine your entries. Risk Management Disclaimer: Trading involves significant risk. Use proper position sizing, place stop losses to manage risk, and ensure trades align with your overall strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow for more Market analysis or if you want to learn more about the markets!
TVC:GOLDLong
by InwardTrader
1/8 Daytrade idea1/8 ES plan updated. Anyone who’s been following can see we are back to extreme volatility, gone are the days of 10 point chops and now we can easily move 40+ points in a single 30 min candle. We are in a downtrend with what I described a few days ago as crash and squeeze, crash and squeeze. For today, the next selloff comes at the loss of yesterday’s low, which can take price below 5900. To get a squeeze, price will need to reclaim the 20dma first ~6020, from there it can easily make its way back to retest 6070. Bulls only take the ball if they manage to reclaim 6085. Until then safe to assume Short the pop is the theme with wide range squeeze and crash, and crash and squeeze. We could do very well with disciplined trades from major level to major level. Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by pinks333
1
$DOGEUSDT: From Meme to Market Mover?1/ BINANCE:DOGEUSDT : From Meme to Market Mover? 📈 Let's dive into why Dogecoin might be more than just internet fun - exploring its potential and pitfalls. 🐕 2/ Current Market Data 📊 Price: As of now, DOGE sits at $0.3507 USD, with a 24-hour trading volume of $5.35 billion USD. Market Cap: Around $51.74 billion, placing DOGE at #7. Whale Activity: Recent X posts indicate significant whale accumulation, hinting at a potential bullish trend, though always with a grain of salt. 🐳 3/ Strengths 💪 Community Power: Dogecoin has one of the most passionate and active communities, driven by memes and celebrity endorsements like from #ElonMusk. This can lead to viral growth. 🌐💬 Liquidity King: With high trading volumes, CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ranks among the top cryptocurrencies, making it easy for investors to trade. 💧 Low Cost Transactions: Dogecoin's low fees make it excellent for tipping or small transactions, fostering a micro-transaction culture. 💸✨ 4/ Weaknesses ⚠️ Utility Question: Unlike CRYPTOCAP:BTC or CRYPTOCAP:ETH , DOGE lacks intrinsic value or widespread use cases beyond speculation. It doesn't support smart contracts or have a clear business model. ❓ Wild Price Swings: The price of DOGE can be extremely volatile, often influenced by social media rather than economic fundamentals. This can be both an opportunity and a risk. 🎢 Centralization Concerns: A significant amount of Dogecoin is held by a few large wallets, potentially allowing these "whales" to manipulate market movements. 5/ Opportunities 🌱 Sentiment Driven: Positive sentiment, especially from influential figures or community events, can propel DOGE's price. It's a coin that thrives on the news cycle. 📣 Adoption Potential: If more businesses start accepting DOGE, its utility could grow, potentially stabilizing its value and usage. 🛒 Regulatory Tailwinds: Clear crypto regulations could encourage more institutional investors to consider DOGE, enhancing its legitimacy. 📜 6/ Threats 🌩️ Regulatory Headwinds: Conversely, stringent regulations could stifle growth, or in the worst case, lead to bans or restrictions. 🚫 Meme Coin Competition: Dogecoin isn't alone in the meme coin space; new entrants might steal the spotlight or dilute the market. 🥊 Market Downturn: In broader economic downturns, speculative investments like Dogecoin could see significant declines. 📉 7/ Investment Strategy 📝 Diversification: Consider DOGE as a small part of a broader crypto portfolio for its speculative appeal. Short-Term Plays: The volatility can be leveraged for quick trades, but it requires a solid understanding of market sentiment. Hedge: Think of DOGE as a speculative hedge, not a core holding, given its unique market dynamics. Remember, while Dogecoin can offer quick gains, it comes with high risk. Always manage your risk. And for the best tools and insights, check out dcalpha.net - where our trading room and resources can help you navigate these waters. 🧭 Poll: What's your stance on DOGE? Invest for the community and potential 🚀 Too risky, not for me 🚫 Watch and wait for the right moment 👀 Already in, holding for the long haul 🔒 8/ Dogecoin's Philanthropic Side ❤️ Jamaican Bobsled Team: Community efforts funded their Winter Olympics journey in 2014. 🇯🇲🏂 Clean Water: Raised funds for water projects in Kenya via Doge4Water. 💧🌍 NASCAR: Community donations sponsored a car, showing collective power. 🏎️ Education: The Dogecoin Foundation supports blockchain education. 📚🔗 Animal Welfare: Even coffee sales contribute to animal rescue. ☕️🐕 9/ Community Impact 🌐 Charity Platforms: Initiatives like XÐ Charity use social media for micro-donations, making philanthropy fun and accessible. 💬💕 Cultural Influence: Dogecoin has shown how a meme can create real-world impact, from sports to global charity. 🗳️🌟 Good Vibes: It fosters a crypto community that's about more than just making money - it's about spreading joy and helping others. 😊 10/ Final Thoughts 🍀 Dogecoin represents a unique blend of community, speculation, and altruism. While its investment merits are debated, its cultural and charitable footprint is undeniable. Approach with caution, but enjoy the ride - make the most of it. Dogecoin might just take you to the moon. 🌕🚀
Long
by DCAChampion
2
BNB → Big Accumulation. In Step With The DistributionBINANCE:BNBUSDT is trying to move into the realization phase after quite a long accumulation, thanks to which the coin can give a very good growth. The coin tested the strong support of 645 within the correction. False break of the support and quite aggressive buyout of the fall indicates buying potential. Bitcoin, which is testing the highs and ready to go even higher is a good driver for BNB Accordingly, the focus is on near-term levels. If the price can break the near-term resistance and consolidate above, the market will further go to break ATH and try to renew it. Resistance levels: 761, 793 Support levels: 691, 645 I don't exclude that the unexpected correction of bitcoin can provoke a correction in the cryptocurrency market, but in general the structure is bullish. High probability of resistance breakdown with the purpose of continuation of movement
by MarketAnalyzar
BTC → Consolidation Before The Breakout When Do We Go Up?BINANCE:BNBUSDT continues to consolidate, but within a strong bullish structure. The price is approaching the trigger, the breakout of which may provoke the formation of an upward impulse A good signal that hints that the growth is likely to continue is the fact that after a strong growth and testing 100K the price does not fall, but consolidates with gradually rising local lows, it is also worth paying attention to MA-50, which acts as a strong support. Within this consolidation we have clear zones, within which the price is trading and accumulating potential, and there is also a clear trigger, the breakout of which can provoke the continuation of growth (distribution). But next week is the Fed meeting on December 17-18, and there may be short-term market manipulative reactions. Be careful Resistance levels: 101.8K, 104.1K Support levels: 98.9K, 94.15K Technically, the focus is on 101.8 - 98.9. Consolidation is forming inside this channel. I do not exclude a chance of support retest in the format of a false breakdown before further growth. Another deep correction to the lower liquidity zone - 94.1K is also possible. But until the price breaks 101.8, bitcoin will not go up, and based on the chart, the event is close and the chance is high
by MarketAnalyzar
BTC/USD Update.Market Update: January Edition Market Overview Bitcoin (BTC) continues to be a focal point as we enter the new year. After experiencing a robust upward trend, BTC has faced a significant downturn, breaking through crucial support levels. This shift is largely attributed to macroeconomic developments, particularly those stemming from the United States. Recent News Impact BTC's recent price dip can be linked to the US Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data, which indicated a surge in hiring, strengthening the labour market. This macroeconomic factor contributed to BTC falling below the $98,000 threshold, with substantial trades influencing the price via "spoofing" practices. Moreover, the resignation of Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr has noticeably affected market sentiment. Although his departure is seen as positive for Bitcoin by easing regulatory concerns, there's still a risk of a further pullback in the early part of the year. Additional Insights It appears our analysis was spot on, as there's potential for further retracement. Recent news about President Trump's involvement could potentially bring the price down to $88,000. This region is notable for its large daily Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), which are imbalances in the market that will need to be squared up at some point. Trading Strategy In light of the current market conditions, it is crucial to closely monitor key support levels and technical indicators. The oversold RSI suggests potential undervaluation, which may lead to a rebound or a consolidation phase. Traders should remain vigilant for further bearish signals from the MA and MACD indicators.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by OakleyJM
Bitcoin to Soar as Trump’s Pro-Crypto Policy Hopes RiseBitcoin prices are on fire. It has surged 129% YoY with anticipation surrounding re-election of Donald Trump as the POTUS for the 2nd time. Trump is regarded as the “most pro crypto” President. Trump is poised to usher in a crypto friendly policy framework aimed at accelerating institutional adoption and positioning Bitcoin (“BTC”) as a cornerstone of the American financial bedrock. Rising regulatory clarity and favourable policies on the horizon, the bullish sentiment is palpable. Rollercoaster rides are mild relative to BTC returns. BTC volatility is sharp. There are multiple ways of generating returns in BTC. This paper looks at combining Spot BTC ETFs and CME Micro Bitcoin Futures to harvest futures premium baked into the term structure. A long position in the underlying asset combined with a short position in the futures is also known as cash-and-carry trades. More on that later. Starting first with price drivers pushing BTC into record territory. Crypto Renaissance following President Trump’s Re-election Trump wasted no time outlining his ambitions to position the US as a global leader in digital asset adoption. Among his key initiatives is the creation of a National Bitcoin Reserve which aims to integrate BTC alongside gold as a strategic asset. This is a bold move making BTC bullish. Further, Trump’s nominations for key regulatory roles signal a transformative shift. Paul Atkins, co-chair of the crypto lobbying group Token Alliance, is set to lead the SEC. Fintech venture capitalist David Sacks has been tapped as the White House’s AI & Crypto Czar. Together, these two are expected to establish regulatory clarity while reducing policy uncertainty for investors. Speculation runs rife about tax incentives aimed at encouraging blockchain innovation, driving significant capital inflows into the sector. At the Nashville Bitcoin Conference in July 2024, Trump unveiled plans for a Bitcoin Advisory Council, which would draft transparent regulations within his first 100 days in office. The US government already holds 120,000 BTCs seized from illicit operations. Under Trump, the US Government is expected to consider converting excess reserves at the Federal Reserve into BTC over the next five years. Trump has argued that BTC is unlike fiat currencies which are designed to lose value (2% p.a.) through inflation, while the former offers long-term growth potential. Adding to his pro-BTC stance, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to safeguarding financial sovereignty by defending the right to self-custody. He also doubled down on his opposition to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), emphasizing his belief in decentralization and financial privacy. This narrative has resonated strongly with institutional investors where it reinforces BTC’s appeal as a hedge against inflation; and the crypto community, where the intrinsic quality of BTC being independent could still be retained. BTC's Rally and Institutional Momentum BTC reached an all-time high of USD 108,364 on 17th December 2024 but has since softened a little and now trades at USD 96,941 as of close of markets on 7th January 2025 (10.5% below its peak). Despite the pullback, BTC remains a cornerstone of institutional interest. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ( NASDAQ:IBIT ), launched in January 2024, has cemented itself as the fastest-growing exchange-traded fund (ETF) in history. Amassing more than USD 50 billion in assets within 11 months. NASDAQ:IBIT holds half of crypto ETF market share. Strong market demand and introduction of options trading in November has fuelled massive rally in BTC prices. However, the ETF has also seen hiccups lately. On 3rd January 2025, NASDAQ:IBIT recorded its largest single-day outflow of USD 333 million, also marking its third consecutive day of outflows. These withdrawals align with BTC’s recent pullback. The meteoric rise of ETF underscores a growing appetite for institutional-grade exposure to the token. HC Wainwright has raised its BTC price target for 2025, boosting projections from USD 140,000 to USD 225,000, citing growing institutional adoption and a favourable regulatory outlook. Meanwhile, Bernstein has similarly forecasted a price of USD 200,000 by the end of 2025, dubbing this period the “Infinity Age” of mainstream financial integration. Also, Geoff Kendrick, Head of Research, Standard Chartered Bank, echoed this optimism, projecting BTC to hit USD 200,000 by year end. Hypothetical Trade Set Up Bullish drivers supporting BTC prices are many. The tailwinds are strong. But many of these are hinged on the new administration keeping up to its election rally promises. The token is priced to perfection and has risen so sharply that even a little disappointment in policy expectations can result in sharp price pullback. In times of such elevated expectations for such assets, the term structure of futures tends to price in steep contango in line with soaring hopes. As of close of markets on 7th January 2025, CME Bitcoin Futures signals a decent steep contango term structure that enables astute investors to lock in market neutral cash and carry yield. The table below translates the term structure into annualised futures premium for the first six months of the year. Executing a BTC cash-and-carry trade requires buying into spot BTC while selling a futures contract to neutralise price and market risk. This paper proposes a hypothetical trade using the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (“IBIT”) and CME Micro Bitcoin Futures Contract (“MBT”). The NASDAQ:IBIT and the MBT products move in tandem with a correlation co-efficient of 1. The above table points to the highest futures premium while selling the February 2025 MBT contract. Matching one BTC requires 1,769 units of $IBIT. Each MBT represents 0.1 BTC. A portfolio comprising of a long position in 177 units of NASDAQ:IBIT and a short position in MBT expiring on 28th February 2025 results in a market neutral cash and carry trade to harness the futures premium. A cash-and-carry trade enables portfolio managers and traders to lock in the futures carry. As the futures contract reaches expiry, the spot and futures prices converge resulting in realisation of the futures premiums. In the meantime, the P&L of this spread remains intact so long as the steepness in the term structure is constant regardless of BTC price moves. The P&L of this spread trade rises if the term structure flattens. Conversely, if the term structure steepens, it will result in a loss until price convergence occurs at expiry. The spread trade P&L is summarized below. As explained above, when the spot to futures price differential remains constant in USD terms, the spread P&L remains unchanged at USD 144.67 per lot. When futures contango flattens, the P&L will rise but eventually converge at expiry. Should that occur, traders can close out the spread trade with a larger P&L without having to hold the position until expiry. However, if the term structure steepens, then the spread trade will incur losses, and those losses will turn into cash & carry profit of USD 144.67 per lot as prices converge at futures expiry. Please note that the above calculations do not account for direct costs (trading & clearing fees) and indirect costs (cost of funds required for holding long IBIT position and short MBT futures).
CME:MBTG2025Long
by mintdotfinance
1
NVIDIA $NVDA | FALL OF THE CHIP KING, WHO'S UP NEXT? - Dec22'24NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA | FALL OF THE CHIP KING, WHO'S UP NEXT? - Dec22'24 NASDAQ:NVDA BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $136.25 - $149.00 NASDAQ:NVDA DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $133.00 - $136.25 (can be extended to $127.25 - $136.25) NASDAQ:NVDA SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $118.25 - $133.00 (can be extended to $118.25 - $127.25) NASDAQ:NVDA Trends: NASDAQ:NVDA Weekly Trend: Bullish NASDAQ:NVDA Daily Trend: Bullish NASDAQ:NVDA 4H Trend: Bearish NASDAQ:NVDA 1H Trend: Bearish NASDAQ:NVDA stock has been in a downtrend since their last earnings release on Nov20, who will become the next trillion-dollar chip maker? Trying a new style of analysis. Previously would erase the zones that I would reference in the past, but now I will include them, as I have been constantly updating my NASDAQ:NVDA analysis for other to use and follow along. After we saw the fall from the Nov20 earnings report, price pulled back to the previous price level the day of earnings release, before tumbling back into the bearish zones. The down trend has not been broken for NASDAQ:NVDA , but bulls should look for a break above 136.25 and bears should look for continuation below 133.00 or 127.25. I will link below my previous NASDAQ:NVDA analysis, along with my NASDAQ:SMCI analysis and NASDAQ:AMD analysis! This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas. ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! trendanalysis, trendtrading, priceaction, priceactiontrading, technicalindicators, supportandresistance, rangebreakout, rangebreakdown, rangetrading, chartpatterntrading, chartpatterns, spy, sp500, s&p, fed, federalreserve, fedrate, fedratecut, interestrate, jeromepowell, fedchair, 50bps, volatile, volatility, nvidia, nvidiapricetarget, nvdatrend, nvidiatrend, nvdasetup, nvidialongs, nvidiashorts, chipmakers, smci, amd, supermicro, advancedmicro, chipmakertrends, newchipmakers, trilliondollarchipmakers, nvidiaproducts, nvidiachips, nvdachips, nvdatrend, nvdaprice, nvidiaprice, nvidiaanalysis, nvidiasetups, nvdaideas,
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TonyAiello
$NVDA NVIDIA AFTER CES: REALITY KICKS IN AFTER ATH | JAN08'25NASDAQ:NVDA NVIDIA AFTER CES: REALITY KICKS IN AFTER ATH | JAN08'25 NASDAQ:NVDA BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $140.00 - $153.00 NASDAQ:NVDA DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $136.00 - $140.00 NASDAQ:NVDA SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $127.00 - $136.00 NASDAQ:NVDA Trends: NASDAQ:NVDA Weekly Trend: Bullish NASDAQ:NVDA Daily Trend: Bullish NASDAQ:NVDA 4H Trend: Bearish NASDAQ:NVDA 1H Trend: Bearish At CES 2025, NASDAQ:NVDA unveiled a series of groundbreaking announcements, including the RTX 50 series GPUs and the Cosmos AI platform, aimed at robotics and autonomous vehicles. This led to an immediate surge in NASDAQ:NVDA 's stock price, hitting new all-time highs and reaching the top of my previous bullish zone. However, the excitement didn't last, with the stock experiencing a significant pullback shortly after. I will link below my previous NASDAQ:NVDA analyses, along with my NASDAQ:SMCI analysis and NASDAQ:AMD analysis! This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas. ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! trendanalysis, trendtrading, priceaction, priceactiontrading, technicalindicators, supportandresistance, rangebreakout, rangebreakdown, rangetrading, chartpatterntrading, chartpatterns, spy, sp500, s&p, fed, federalreserve, fedrate, fedratecut, interestrate, jeromepowell, fedchair, 50bps, volatile, volatility, nvidia, nvidiapricetarget, nvdatrend, nvidiatrend, nvdasetup, nvidialongs, nvidiashorts, chipmakers, smci, amd, supermicro, advancedmicro, chipmakertrends, newchipmakers, trilliondollarchipmakers, nvidiaproducts, nvidiachips, nvdachips, nvdatrend, nvdaprice, nvidiaprice, nvidiaanalysis, nvidiasetups, nvdaideas, ces, cesevent, cesnvda, cesnvidia, ces2025, cesamd, cessmci, cesrtx50, rtx50, gpus, cosmosai, newai, aitrends, newaiindustries, nvdaproducts, nvdartx, jensenhuang, nvdaceo, nvdajensenhuang, nvdaoptions, amdsmcinvda,
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TonyAiello