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Fundamental Analysis

GBP/JPY could break 190 supportThe GBP/JPY is displaying a bearish engulfing candle on its daily chart - and similar patterns are observed on all other major yen pairs. The GBP/JPY outlook has turned bearish as the Japanese yen gains strength amidst falling global bond yields, driven by softer-than-expected US and UK inflation data. Markets have shifted Fed rate-cut expectations forward, leading to a rally in bonds and a decline in yields across major economies. This has boosted the appeal of the low-yielding Japanese yen, especially and Japan's own bond yields have been hitting multi-year highs lately. Japan’s yields, supported by hawkish comments from BoJ Governor Ueda and potential rate hikes, have contributed to narrowing the yield gap with other nations, boosting the yen’s performance. From here, the GJ could drop to take out key support around the 190.00 in the coming days. If that happens, we could see further follow-up technical selling in the days ahead. Key resistance comes between 193.00 to 194.20 area. Yesterday's low (now broken) at 191.50 is now the most important near-term resistance to watch. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
Short
by FOREXcom
$PCG - Did market just panic dumped the wrong stock?The recent wildfires in California, particularly the Palisades and Eaton Fires in Los Angeles County, have primarily affected Southern California. This recent wildfire news caused NYSE:PCG to crash alongside NYSE:EIX (which bounced as well). However, PG&E's service area is predominantly in Northern and Central California. PG&E will not have to pay back the wildfire fund if deemed prudent. Furthermore, PG&E is a stable utility with monopoly-like dominance in California’s massive market. It benefits from regulated pricing, essential services, wildfire liability caps, and state support for clean energy and infrastructure upgrades. With strong cash flows, improving safety measures, and alignment with decarbonization trends, PG&E offers resilience, growth potential, and a compelling "buy the fake fear" opportunity. Don’t let short-term noise overshadow its solid fundamentals. So, did market just panic dumped the wrong stock?
NYSE:PCGLong
by Mabelm
Dow Jones Likely Trending Up in the Next Four YearsCBOT: Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ) #Microfutures The United States will enter a new presidency on Monday, January 20th. Will the stock market continue its upward trend under the 47th U.S. President? Before we set our sight on the future, it’s prudent to look back in history first. While it is not a guarantee for future performance, history does provide good intelligence. To find clues for our answer, I conducted an analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). How the Dow Performed Under Different Presidencies My research setup is as follow: • I look at DJIA daily close prices for the past 50 years (from Aug. 1974 to Jan. 2025). This period covers 9 presidents and 13 four-year presidential terms. • For all the presidents, I use their Inauguration Day January 20th as the start day, while setting the end day for January 19th four years later. I compare the changes in DJIA closing prices from start to finish for each 4-year term. • The exceptions: Gerald Ford, who started his term on August 9, 1974, after Richard Nixon resigned; and Joe Biden, for whom I use the latest trade day January 15th. Here is what I found: • Gerald Ford (Aug. ‘74 – Jan. ’77): DJIA went up 181.7 points (+23.4%) • Jimmy Carter (Jan. ’77 – Jan. ’81), down 8.4 points (-0.9%) • Ronald Reagon (Jan. ’81 – Jan. ’89), up 1,288.1 points (+135.5%). The data can be further broken down to +68.6% in his 1st term and +45.7% in the 2nd term • George H.W. Bush (Jan. ’89 – Jan. ’93), up 1,020.6 points (+45.7%) • Bill Clinton (Jan. ’93 – Jan. ’01), up 7,345.6 points (+226.6%), including +110.8% in the 1st four years and +54.7% in the 2nd four years • George W. Bush (Jan. ’01 – Jan. ’09), down 2,306.4 points (-21.8%), for which -0.4% and -20.9% for his 1st and 2nd terms, respectively • Barack Obama (Jan. ’09 – Jan. ’17), up 11,783.3 points (+148.2%), including +71.7% in the 1st term and +44.6% in the 2nd term • Donald Trump (Jan. ’17 – Jan. ’21), up 11,060.2 points (+55.8%) • Joe Biden (Jan. ’21 – Jan. ’21), up 12,202.8 points (+39.5%) Dow Jones advanced the most points under current administration (+12,203 points), with Obama coming in 2nd for 11,783 points. The DJIA index gained the most in percentage terms under the Clinton administration (+226%). Across all nine presidents, DJIA was lower for one, flat for another, but moved up 7 out of 9 times. If you look deeper into the worst-performing years under George W. Bush, you will find that 9/11 terrorist attack happened in his first term and the 2008 financial crisis occurred in his second term. Both can be considered extreme events and outliners in the dataset. Regardless which political party commands the White House, the Dow is more likely to move up than down. From the first day Gerald took office to the last week of the Biden administration, DJIA went from 777 to 43,133, a huge gain of 5,449%! Trading with Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures The above analysis gives us comfort in the upward mobility of the US stock market. Further analysis of the DJIA shows strength in its Top 5 component companies. • As of January 15th, DJIA went up 15.5% in the past 12 months • Gold Sachs, which holds an 8.2% share by index weight, was up 57.5% in a year • 1-year returns for the other top components are: United Health (+4.2%), Microsoft (+9.0%), Home Depot (+12.2%), and Caterpillar (+31.5%) An investor may simply deploy the time-honored “Buy and Hold” strategy. The longer the holding period, the better the returns, barring extreme circumstances. Given that the DJIA is trending up over the long run, active traders may consider using stock index futures to enhance their investment returns. Micro E-Mini Dow Jones futures (MYM) offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark Dow Jones futures (YM) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of 0.5 times the DJIA index, which is 1/10th of the standard contract. CME data shows that the E-Mini and Micro Dow Jones futures have a combined open interest of 103,077 contract as of this Monday. According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders report, as of January 7, 2025, Leverage Funds hold 17,504 long positions and 11,695 short positions. With DJIA nearing its all-time high, “Small Money” is still bullish. Longs outweigh shorts by a 3:2 ratio. Buying or selling one MYM contract requires an initial margin of $1,077. With Wednesday midday quote of 43,376, each March contract (MYMH5) has a notional value of $21,688. Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 20 times (=21688/1077). Hypothetically, if Dow futures price moves up 10% to 47,714 in 2025, the index gain of 4,338 points will translate into $2,169 for a long position, given each index point equal to $0.50 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $1,077 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 201.4% (=2169/1077). Futures contracts have expiration days, and you may not hold them forever like stocks. To stay Long in the DJIA, a trader may consider a futures rollover strategy. An illustration: • A trader would buy the lead contract March now, and hold it till the end of February • He would then sell March and buy June, which will become the next lead contract • He would repeat this process: buy September and sell June at the end of May • Repeat this again to buy December and sell September at the end of August This series of trades allows a trader to establish a long position in the DJIA throughout the year, while holding the most liquid contracts. There is no guarantee that each trade will yield positive returns. But if the Dow is trending up over time, the winning would likely outpace the loses. The leverage feature in futures works both ways. It would magnify the losses as well as improving the winnings. The good news is, a trader could put stop-loss on his futures trades, limiting the downside risks. For example, our trader may set stop-loss at 42,000 when he buys the MYM at 43,376. If the Dow falls to 40,000, his position will be liquidated well before that when the price hits 42,000. The maximum loss incurred will be $688 (= (43376 - 42000) * 0.5). The combination of Futures Rollover with Stop-loss could yield higher returns (thanks to the leverage) while maintaining a limited loss exposure. If the index bounces up and down but trends up in the long stretch, the trader will see both wins and losses. Since the wins are unbounded but the losses are contained, the overall returns would likely be positive. The risk to long Micro Dow is that the US stock market enters a bear market, and DJIA trends down over a long period of time. The trader could incur a series of limited losses, and the gains were not sufficient to cover those losses. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DJ:DJILong
by JimHuangChicago
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate (December/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY December/2024 source: Office for National Statistics -Annual inflation rate in the UK unexpectedly edged lower to 2.5% in December 2024 from 2.6% in November, below forecasts of 2.6%. However, it matched the BoE's forecast from early November. Prices slowed for restaurants and hotels (3.4%, the lowest since July 2021 vs 4%), mainly due to a 1.9% fall in prices of hotels. Inflation also slowed for recreation and communication (3.4% vs 3.6%) and services (4.4%, the lowest since March 2022 vs 5) and steadied for food and non-alcoholic beverages (at 2%). Meanwhile, prices decreased less for transport (-0.6% vs -0.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars (1%) partially offset a downward effect from air fare (-26%). Also, prices rose slightly more for housing and utilities (3.1% vs 3%). Compared to November, the CPI rose 0.3%, above 0.1% in the previous period but below forecasts of 0.4%. The annual core inflation rate also declined to 3.2% from 3.5% and the monthly rate went up to 0.3%, below forecasts of 0.5%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
AUD/CHF "Aussie vs Swiss" Forex Market Heist Plan on Bullish🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the AUD/CHF "Aussie vs Swiss" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 👀 Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull trade after the MA Breakout, however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2h period, the recent / nearest low or high level. Goal 🎯: 0.57700 (or) Escape before the target Scalpers, take note : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release. Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️ The AUD/CHF pair is expected to move in a bullish trend, driven by several fundamental factors: Interest Rate Divergence : The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep interest rates steady, while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to cut interest rates, which could lead to a widening of the interest rate differential between the two currencies. Commodity Prices : Australia is a major commodity exporter, and rising commodity prices could boost the Australian economy and support the Australian dollar. Swiss Economy : The Swiss economy is expected to slow down, which could lead to a decrease in demand for the Swiss franc. Risk Appetite : The global risk appetite is increasing, which could lead to an increase in demand for the Australian dollar, a risk-sensitive currency. Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan. Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
Long
by Thief_Trader
DAX - time to get back to business!Hi guys, after a previous very successful trade on the DAX , we are looking into it agian. Even though there is a lot of pressure of the Eurozone I would deffinetely say that the DAX can come out ahead and continue on it's strong growth pannel.We can see that the RSI has formulated an Ascending channel which gives us more confirmations of our trade direction. Entry: 19,985 Target: 20,500 As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
XETR:DAXLong
by DG55Capital
6
Doge's Journey to the MOON? $1.42 and Beyond Morning Trading Family Hold onto your leashes, traders! If our 30 cents at supports holds firm, we're in for an epic ride: First Stop: 50 cents - A nice little hop. Next Leap: 61 cents - The momentum builds. Gearing Up: 83 cents - We're picking up speed. Moonshot: $1.42 - Aim for the stars! Keep your eyes on the charts, and let's see where this meme coin takes us next! If you found this useful: boost, share, like, and comment. I appreciate all the support! If you're struggling as a trader, I get it - I've been there myself. Jump in, send me a DM or head to my profile; I'm more than happy to help. Kris/Mindbloome Exchange Trade What You See
KRAKEN:DOGEUSD
by Mindbloome-Trading
Aussie rises after US core CPI declines to 3.2%The Australian dollar is higher for a third consecutive trading day. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6233, up 0.63% at the time of writing. The US inflation report for December was a mixed bag, as headline CPI rose while the core rate declined. Headline CPI rose to 2.9% y/y from 2.7% in November, matching the market estimate. Monthly, headline CPI rose to 0.4%, up from 0.3% and above the market estimate of 0.3%. The more important story was the decline in core CPI, which excludes food and energy and is more closely watched by the Federal Reserve than the headline data. Core CPI eased to 3.2% y/y in December, down from 3.3% over the past three months and below the market estimate of 3.3%.  Monthly, core CPI ticked lower to 0.2% in December, down from 0.3% a month earlier and in line with the market estimate. The decline in core CPI was small but still significant, as the core rate showed downward movement after remaining unchanged for three months. Investors responded by raising the probability of a quarter-point cut in March at 29%, up from 19% prior to the inflation release, according to CME's FedWatch. The Fed meets at the end of the month and is virtually certain to hold rates. Australia releases the December employment report early on Thursday. Australia's labor market remains solid, although the economy as a whole is struggling. Job growth increased by a strong 35.6 thousand in November, beating expectations. Will the positive trend continue? The market estimate for December stands at 15 thousand, which would mark a nine-month low. The unemployment rate has been low and fell to an eight-month low in November at 3.9%. It is expected to creep up to 4.0% in December. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Feb. 18 and the strength of the labor market is a key consideration in the central bank's decision-making. As long as the labor market remains solid and does not deteriorate quickly, the RBA can afford to hold off on a rate cut. If, however, the employment report is softer than expected, it would put pressure on the RBA to lower rates at next month's meeting. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6231. Above, there is resistance at 0.6255 0.6189 and 0.6171 are providing support
by OANDA
Tesla Update: Navigating the Road to $440Morning Trading Family Tesla's journey is heating up as we aim for the $440 target. But buckle up, because we've got some resistance zones to watch: First Stop: $427 - This could be where the ride gets a bit turbulent. Expect some market reactions here. Next Challenge: $435.35 - Another potential bump in the road. Will we see a correction, or will Tesla's momentum carry us straight through? The depth of any correction at these levels is still up in the air, but keep your eyes peeled. If the market punches through these resistances, $440 might just be in our sights sooner than expected! If you found this useful: boost, share, like, and comment. I appreciate all the support! If you're struggling as a trader, I get it - I've been there myself. Jump in, send me a DM or head to my profile; I'm more than happy to help. Kris/Mindbloome Exchange Trade What You See
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Mindbloome-Trading
US Inflation: A Break in Core Trends Sparks Market OptimismThe December US inflation data presented a mixed picture, but with a nuance that markets have chosen to interpret optimistically. After a prior week where robust economic data cooled expectations for rate cuts in 2025, the newly released figures offer a welcome relief. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.9% year-over-year, in line with market expectations, marking its third consecutive increase since September. However, the real surprise came from the core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Contrary to expectations of stability, the annual core metric fell to 3.2%. This unexpected decline has infused optimism into markets, creating a "glass half full" sentiment. This key data, alongside the Producer Price Index (PPI) published the previous day, has triggered a positive movement in financial markets. US equities rose midweek, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.6%. Meanwhile, Treasury yields fell, and the US dollar depreciated. This market reaction suggests that investors see these numbers as an indication that inflationary pressures might be easing, potentially influencing future decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The unexpected drop in core inflation is an encouraging sign, suggesting inflationary pressures could be diminishing faster than anticipated. Coupled with a moderated PPI, it bolsters the narrative that the Fed may have room to adopt a more accommodative stance in its monetary policy moving forward. It is worth noting that the equity rally has also been driven by strong corporate earnings, particularly in the banking sector. Results from financial giants like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs, which exceeded market expectations, have helped boost investor confidence. While headline inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, the moderation in the core measure offers a glimmer of hope. Markets are now increasingly anticipating the possibility of the Fed resuming rate cuts in the second half of 2025, although the resilient labor market, with 256,000 new jobs created in December, remains a key consideration. While it’s premature to declare victory, today’s data provides a more optimistic perspective on the inflation trajectory. It is crucial to closely monitor economic data and market reactions as the inflation situation evolves, particularly under the leadership of the new Donald Trump 2.0 administration.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
NVDAFrom both a fundamental and technical perspective, NVIDIA (NVDA) appears to present a compelling buying opportunity. Below, I analyze the situation using the technical chart provided alongside key fundamental metrics: Technical Analysis Insights Position Relative to Linear Regression Channel: The chart shows NVDA trading near the lower boundary of the regression channel, specifically two standard deviations below the mean. Historically, stocks within strong uptrends tend to revert toward the mean when they reach such oversold levels. This makes it an attractive entry point for mean-reversion strategies. The broader uptrend remains intact, as evidenced by the slope of the regression channel and higher highs/higher lows in the stock's price action over the past two years. Volume Analysis: Recent candles show a pullback accompanied by average or declining volume, suggesting that this is a healthy consolidation within an uptrend rather than a reversal. High-volume buying during prior advances further supports the presence of institutional demand. Support Levels: NVDA's current price aligns closely with previous key support levels (~$130-$135), reinforcing the idea of a strong demand zone. Fundamental Analysis Insights Leadership in AI and GPU Markets: NVIDIA dominates the high-performance GPU market, especially in AI workloads and data centers. With the rapid expansion of AI applications, including generative AI, cloud computing, and autonomous systems, NVDA is positioned as a key beneficiary of these megatrends. In 2024, NVIDIA reported explosive growth in its data center revenue, primarily driven by the adoption of GPUs for AI training and inference. This growth trajectory is expected to continue as AI spending remains a priority for major enterprises. Earnings Growth and Forward Guidance: NVDA has consistently surpassed earnings estimates, with its recent fiscal quarters showcasing triple-digit year-over-year revenue growth in AI-related segments. Forward guidance remains strong, with analysts projecting continued revenue expansion as demand for AI and gaming GPUs grows. NVDA's gross margins are some of the best in the semiconductor industry, exceeding 65%, a testament to its pricing power and technological moat. Valuation Adjustments: While NVIDIA's valuation (P/E ratio) has historically been a point of contention, the recent pullback has created a more reasonable entry point for long-term investors. The stock is now trading at a forward P/E in line with its historical average during high-growth periods, considering its earnings potential in AI-related fields. Catalysts for Growth: Product Pipeline: NVIDIA continues to innovate with cutting-edge products like the Hopper and Grace architectures, which are optimized for AI workloads. Industry Tailwinds: The global semiconductor industry is forecasted to grow significantly over the next decade, with GPUs being a critical component in AI, gaming, and automotive applications. Partnerships and Ecosystem: NVIDIA has established partnerships with major cloud providers (e.g., AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud) and is deeply embedded in the AI ecosystem, creating recurring demand for its products. Macroeconomic Context: Recent economic data points to stabilizing inflation, which could lead to more accommodative monetary policies. Lower interest rates historically benefit growth stocks like NVDA by reducing the discount rate applied to future cash flows. Conclusion The combination of NVDA's fundamental growth drivers (AI leadership, strong financial performance, and industry tailwinds) and its technically oversold position (trading at two standard deviations below the mean) makes it a compelling buy at this juncture. Risk is mitigated by the presence of strong technical support and the robust secular growth trends underpinning NVIDIA’s business model. For long-term investors, this confluence of factors suggests an asymmetric risk-reward opportunity. Entry: Between 130 and 133 Long Term Target: 200
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by tynichols
BlackRock Is About to Explode – Here’s Why I’m Going Long!📊 BlackRock (BLK) – Bullish Setup Ahead of Earnings! 📊 BlackRock ( NYSE: BLK) is setting up for a potential bullish move as it approaches tomorrow's earnings report (before market open). After a healthy pullback, the stock has bounced off a long-term trendline, showing technical signs of a reversal. Here's why I'm taking this trade and what I'm watching going forward: 💼 Trade Setup: 🔹 Entry Price: $964 (current price) 🎯 Take Profit 1: $1,000 🎯 Take Profit 2: $1,050 🎯 Take Profit 3: $1,100 🛡️ Stop Loss: $915 (just below trendline support) This setup offers a solid risk/reward ratio, with potential upside of up to 14% while keeping the downside risk limited to 5%. The levels are based on both technical resistance zones and previous highs that could act as targets. 📈 Why Am I Bullish on BlackRock? 1️⃣ Technical Reversal BlackRock has bounced off its long-term trendline, which has been acting as support since mid-2023. The stock is now trading near daily RSI oversold levels, with the Stochastic oscillator crossing upward, both of which point to bullish momentum. The price action suggests buyers are stepping in, especially ahead of the earnings report. A move above $970-$975 could confirm the reversal and push the price toward my first target of $1,000. 2️⃣ Earnings Catalyst BlackRock is due to release its Q4 2024 earnings tomorrow before the market opens. Historically, the company has a strong track record of beating estimates. Positive surprises tend to trigger sharp price moves, as asset managers like BlackRock benefit from market recovery and ETF inflows. Given the recent rally in global markets, there's a good chance BlackRock could report higher-than-expected fee income from its $9.4 trillion in assets under management (AUM). 3️⃣ ETF & Passive Investing Growth BlackRock’s iShares brand dominates the ETF market, capturing billions in inflows every month. ETFs have been gaining popularity globally, and BlackRock is perfectly positioned to benefit from this trend. With markets stabilizing and investors returning to risk assets, ETF providers like BlackRock are first in line to benefit. 4️⃣ Fundamentally Strong Company BlackRock is not just about ETFs. It also generates recurring revenue from its Aladdin platform, a risk management system used by many of the world’s largest institutions. This tech-driven revenue diversifies BlackRock’s business model and makes it more resilient to market downturns. The company is also shareholder-friendly, with a strong dividend track record and consistent buybacks that reduce the float and boost EPS. 💬 Are you trading BlackRock ahead of earnings? Share your thoughts below! 👇
NYSE:BLKLong
by ValchevFinance
CORE US Inflation pumped $BTC, but beware of the normal inflatioYou should be excited Core US inflation (excluding food and energy) came in lower than expected today! However, the normal inflation rate was actually higher than expected. We now have decent macro data ahead of Trump's inauguration in less than five days, and CRYPTOCAP:BTC is already rallying. This is very bullish because this sets the starting price at which Trump will start buying CRYPTOCAP:BTC as even higher. However, the market will likely try to shake people out, so be prepared with DIAMOND HANDS! This could send us to new ALL-TIME HIGHS on CRYPTOCAP:BTC and altcoins, so ensure you are ready to be fully exposed!
Long
by CryptoJayTrades