2025-02-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Interesting day ahead of us. Selling was strong but bulls retraced 70% of it already. If bears come around again and keep this a lower high below 22230, it would show some strength and we could expect another test of 22000. The daily chart looks much more bullish than bearish. Big tails below bars and all bars closing above their mid-point. We have also touched the bull trend line above the daily 20ema. If anything I have a long bias but due to Opex I tend to lean neutral for tomorrow.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 22000 - 22500
bull case: Another dip another bad follow-through. Bulls buy it all and they have all the arguments on their side. They bought where they had to and we now have a decent two-legged pull-back to the bull trend line. Market is free to melt higher but tomorrow is opex and I fare best when I lean neutral on those days and trade less.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears can generate enough selling pressure to go down hard but as soon as the momentum is gone, so are the bears and market just reverses. I doubt bears can keep this a lower high and continue inside the bear channel. If they do, a weekly close below 22k would be amazing for them. That is the only target I have for them for tomorrow because I can’t imagine this going below 21900. Above 22200 bears just have to cover and we could accelerate upwards.
Invalidation is above 22230.
short term: Neutral. No bigger opinion on who wins this tomorrow. Both have reasonable arguments and we are inside the big bull channel and now also inside a bear channel. I wait for strong momentum again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-16: Bulls are on their way of making a new ath again. So no bearish thoughts until market character changes dramatically again. I can see this going up to 23000 but not beyond. No bigger opinion on a medium-term outlook for this.
trade of the day: Buying 22k. Was close enough to the bull trend line, daily 20ema and bears found no acceptance below it.
Futures
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Classic Bullish Setup
I think that WTI Crude Oil has a potential to continue rising.
The market was consolidating for a while within a wide intraday horizontal range.
Its resistance breakout is a strong bullish signal.
Next resistance - 0.7315
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
GOLD's rise has been steady, limited by its all-time peakDuring the Asian trading session, OANDA:XAUUSD spot delivery at about 2,930 USD/ounce; Yesterday the price of gold skyrocketed to 36USSD. On this trading day, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes are expected to cause major volatility in the gold market.
On Tuesday, as US President Trump's tariff plan sparked market concerns about US economic growth, funds poured into the gold market in search of a safe haven. Spot gold closed up 36.28 USD, equivalent to 1.25%, at 2,934.87 USD/ounce.
The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its January monetary policy meeting at 02:00 Hanoi time on Thursday. The market expects more information from the minutes on how decision-makers assess the risks of a global trade war that could be triggered by Trump's tariff policy.
Last week's data showed the US consumer price index (CPI) rose at its fastest pace in nearly 18 months in January, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's stance that it is in no rush to cut interest rates.
The minutes will be closely scrutinized for clues about the Fed's path forward, especially in light of recent data showing solid price growth, weak consumer sentiment and weaker-than-expected retail sales.
If the Fed meeting minutes have a tough stance, the US Dollar could be boosted, which would put gold prices at risk of falling. And vice versa, if the minutes show the possibility that the Fed will continue with its goal of cutting interest rates, the USD will weaken and create room for gold prices to increase.
CME Group's FedWatch tool now shows that the market actually sees no chance of a rate cut in March and about a 20% chance of a 25 basis point cut in May.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold's gains were temporarily halted by its all-time high but the technical outlook remains overwhelmingly bullish.
The technical structure remains unchanged with the price channel as the main trend and main support by EMA21.
As long as gold remains within the price channel, above EMA21, pullbacks should only be considered short-term corrections without changing the trend, and should be seen as a buying opportunity.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not really sent out any reliable signals for a possible downward correction.
To summarize, the intraday technical outlook for gold is bullish, notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,911 – 2,900 – 2,881USD
Resistance: 2,942USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2951 - 2949⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2955
→Take Profit 1 2943
↨
→Take Profit 2 2937
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2904 - 2906⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2900
→Take Profit 1 2912
↨
→Take Profit 2 2918
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Feb 17 - Feb 21]OANDA:XAUUSD have leveled off after a series of record increases, ending the week below 2,900 USD/oz due to strong profit-taking activities. The main reason is that geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe have eased, reducing the need for safe havens. President Donald Trump had a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin about ending hostilities in Ukraine and suspending tariffs until a review is completed in April 2025.
Gold prices may continue to adjust in the short term, but in the long term, safe haven demand due to economic instability and trade war will push prices up. In addition, central banks stepped up gold purchases, with more than 1,000 tons in 2024 - much higher than the average level in the 2010-2021 period, contributing to supporting the rise of gold.
China launched a pilot project allowing 10 insurance companies to invest up to 1% of assets in gold. It is forecast that these companies can buy up to 28 billion USD of gold (about 300 tons), accounting for 6.5% of annual physical gold demand, contributing to boosting the market.
SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK:
Tuesday: Empire State Manufacturing Index (economic index measuring business conditions of the manufacturing industry in New York state, USA. This index is announced monthly by the US Federal Reserve (FED) New York branch, based on a survey of manufacturers in the region).
Wednesday: US housing data (New homes and construction permits), FED meeting minutes.
Thursday: US Weekly Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Friday: S&P Flash PMI, US Existing Home Sales
📌Technically, on chart D1, after surpassing the peak at 2790, the gold price increased another 150 and tends to adjust again.
Currently, the support level to pay attention to is around the dynamic resistance level as well as the hard resistance level at 2790, while the resistance level is set around 2942. Next week, if the gold price maintains the trading level above the 2800 threshold, it is expected that the momentum will increase to set a new record high price. In case the price declines and adjusts too deeply, there is a risk that the gold price will be subject to downward selling pressure.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,881 – 2,857USD
Resistance: 2,900 – 2,942USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2951 - 2949⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2955
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2789 - 2791⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2785
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 2.16 - 2.21Last Week :
Sunday Globex again opened on a gap down just like previous week but this time it opened right at lower VAH and got a push back into over 6074 - 54 Edge. Holding over 6050s and inside/over the Edge meant stability for the market which brough in more buying but as we can see it took us a whole week of consolidating under VAL before we were able to push into upper Value towards the end of the week. We pushed into the Mean right up against our previous Supply area and that served as good resistance to keep us in small balance to finish the week on Friday.
This Week :
Tricky spot we find ourself in this week, on higher time frames like Monthly we are having inside month, weekly we are still holding sideways/up trend inside this 6230s - 5950s balance but one thing to note is we have mostly been back and forth between this balances Mean area and the low, so far dips under the low kept getting bought but we are not really getting any upside or holds over the Mean areas which could mean no acceptance inside it to cause continuation towards the top. On Daily TF we have been holding over between the Daily upper Edge of 6073 - 43 and upper Daily VAL of 6144 - 25 where we found balance to end the week on Friday.
Going into this week we are again inside the Value of this 6074 - 6195 Hourly's range and there are few things we can watch from here. If the market has truly accepted inside this range then we may hold inside the Value which will mean ranges will tighten up and we look to balance inside Current Intraday Range of 6155 - 6114, we have supply over 6144 so any pushes over it towards 6155 could find their way back into the Mean and we could see covering under 6125 over VAL. BUT something we have to watch out for is IF we again fail inside this Value and get into/under VAL this will be our first signal for a failure which can bring in weakness towards lower Edge, IF that happens and we find ourself inside lower Edge under 6074 - 60s that would confirm the failure and may bring in more weakness for market to try and go find Value lower, we do have lots of HTF stops lined up under us which would keep bringing weakness if we start taking them. We don't have any market moving data until Fed on Wednesday which could mean a slow start to the week and we must be careful forcing for downside IF we are holding over VAL because that keeps us stable. Of course IF we do again open on a gap down like we did last 2 weeks then that could change things BUT this time around IF we do then we need to be careful looking for a full return back like we had last 2 times.
For more strength out of this Value we would want price first show us holds over 6144 AND find stronger buying that can take us into/over upper VAH, until this happens we really need to watch out over 6140 as we may finish this month either inside +/- month inside this Value under 6160s OR since its our 3rd month in these areas without any upside, we could see size sell us back down towards Monthly balance lows which are down at 5950s.
GOLD steadies at high levels despite FOMC looks toughDuring the early morning trading session on Thursday (February 20), spot gold prices suddenly increased rapidly in the short term and gold prices stabilized above 2,940 USD/ounce, approaching the historic high set in the previous trading day.
Trump just issued another tariff threat
On Wednesday evening local time, US President Trump reiterated that he will announce tariffs on cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
“I will announce tariffs next month or sooner on autos, semiconductors, chips, pharmaceuticals, lumber and a number of other items that have a significant impact on the United States,” Trump said.
On Tuesday, Trump said he intended to impose tariffs of "about 25%" on autos, along with similar tariffs on imported semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
Earlier this month, the United States announced a 10% tariff on imports from China and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum.
Gold prices hit a record high on Wednesday, but the Fed meeting minutes sent gold prices down a bit
Gold prices hit an all-time high in early trading on Wednesday as U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of tariffs rattled investors, but later retreated from record highs as the dollar strengthened following a tough Federal Reserve meeting minutes.
"Participants said that, as long as the economy remains near maximum employment, they would like to see inflation progress further before making additional adjustments to the target range of the federal funds rate," minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's Jan. 28-29 meeting said.
Assessment: The meeting minutes highlight the cautious approach of policymakers after they cut interest rates by 100 basis points in the final months of last year. Some officials have said they want to see inflation continue to fall toward the Fed's 2% target before supporting another rate cut.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting showed concerns about inflation risks, dampening expectations for interest rate cuts. Gold prices decreased after the Fed meeting minutes, but in general this is not a significant impact because the market is still accepting risks from President Trump.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Technically, gold is up 0.30% on the day, temporarily in front of the 0.382% Fibonacci extension considered the nearest resistance.
Once gold breaks above $2,946, it will likely continue to renew its all-time high with a target then around $2,971 in the short term.
The intraday technical outlook for gold is bullish, notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,921USD
Resistance: 2,942 – 2,971USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2971 - 2969⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2975
→Take Profit 1 2963
↨
→Take Profit 2 2957
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2909 - 2911⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2905
→Take Profit 1 2917
↨
→Take Profit 2 2923
2025-02-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Neutral. Biggest bear bar since November and we are close to the elections. Market printed 23000 to the tick and now what? Tops usually get a retest, which can be a higher or lower high. Given today’s strength and the timing of this move, it’s tough to hold any bigger bias for the next two days.
current market cycle: bull trend (was trading range before and that was obviously wrong, sorry about that)
key levels: 22500 - 23200
bull case: As long as this big bull gap down to 22000 stays open, bulls are fine. If bears close it, market turns neutral for the time being. We have elections on Sunday and at this point it’s probably a bumpy ride for the next two days. 22500 should be huge support for the bulls or we flush to 22000. Xetra high was 22935 which is too close to 23000 to not expect it to get hit. Can bulls buy the lows at 22500 in hopes for an immediate reversal? I doubt it. Too strong and we will probably need some time around (sideways movement) 22500 first. The big bull trend line is somewhat 250 points lower and if we get there, I expect huge buying. My bias is still bullish since I expect bigger upside from here than downside.
Invalidation is below 21950.
bear case: Bears had a huge day and closed below 22500, which is really god for them. Their next target is the big bull trend line around 22250 and if they have enough momentum, they can overshoot down to 22000. 22000 is also the 50% retracement of this recent bull leg, the gap close from last Wednesday and the daily 20ema. Big magnets there but I am cautious after big up and then big down. What I absolutely can’t see for now is anything below 21950. If we get down to 22000, we will probably see big buying for a retest of the highs.
Invalidation is above 23200.
short term: Neutral and cautious. Big up, big down, big confusion. If bears get follow-through, they have big magnets below but I highly doubt the bull trend line will be broken.
medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Sell anywhere. Market did not touch the 10m 20ema for 500 points down.
#BTCUSDT #4h (Bitget Futures) descending channel breakoutBitcóin just regained 20EMA support, printing a three-white-soldiers pattern. Looks good for bullish continuation from here.
⚡️⚡️ #BTC/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: Bitget Futures
Signal Type: Regular (Long)
Leverage: Isolated (10.0X)
Amount: 4.9%
Entry Zone:
98356.7 - 97312.9
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 102615.4
1) 106215.9
1) 109816.3
Stop Targets:
1) 93834.3
Published By: @Zblaba
CRYPTOCAP:BTC BITGET:BTCUSDT.P #4h #Bitcoin #PoW bitcoin.org
Risk/Reward= 1:1.2 | 1:2.1 | 1:3.0
Expected Profit= +48.9% | +85.7% | +122.5%
Possible Loss= -40.9%
Estimated Gaintime= 1-2 weeks
TONUSDT: Bearish Setup or Bulls' Last Stand?
Hey, traders! 😱📉 BINANCE:TONUSDT.P is in a high-risk zone, and the market is tense. We see the price testing support at *3.6191 USDT*, while resistance at *3.6891 USDT* is keeping the pressure on.
The classic scenario: if support fails, we could see a sell-off. But what if the whales are lurking, ready to turn the price around?
🔑 *Key Levels:*
*Support:*
*3.6191 USDT* – bulls are defending this level aggressively.
*3.0087 USDT* – deep liquidity zone, where the price could drop if support breaks.
**Resistance:**
**3.6891 USDT** – if sellers hold this level, the downtrend continues.
**3.8000 USDT** – a breakout above here could mean a bullish reversal.
🚩 *Trading Strategy:*
*Short Entry:* After breaking *3.6191 USDT* with a retest.
*Stop-Loss:* Above *3.6891 USDT* – if bears are wrong, it's time to exit.
*Profit Targets:*
*3.5000 USDT* – quick scalp target.
*3.3000 USDT* – solid take-profit zone.
*3.0087 USDT* – full breakdown potential if panic selling intensifies.
📈 *Technical Analysis Insights:*
Sellers are dominating – market structure remains bearish.
Volume shows liquidity accumulating in this range.
If we see a bounce from *3.6191 USDT*, a short squeeze could trigger a sharp move up.
💡 *What to Watch For?*
*Manage risk!* A downtrend doesn’t mean going all-in.
*Wait for confirmation!* No clear break = possible liquidity grab.
*Watch volume!* False breakouts are common without strong volume support.
Is BINANCE:TONUSDT.P about to dump, or will bulls hold the line? Share your thoughts below! 🧐🔥
2025-02-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears started the day very bearish and printed decent bear bars down to 22200 but bears failed to find sellers below 22130 and we went sideways 22100-22200 until we saw bigger buying coming through again and bears gave up late into the day. Bulls closed it between Friday’s close and today’s open, so the day was neutral as can be. Bears failed to get down to 22k which is my line in the sand for them. We have to expect higher prices, given that this was a shallow sideways correction on the daily chart.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 22100 - 22500
bull case: Bulls happily buying every dip and bears could not even touch the breakout price of 22094 (January high). Can only see today’s price action as bullish and on the 4h chart it’s a two-legged pullback to the 20ema with a decent buy signal bar now. Longs with stop 22090 are reasonable for target 22450+.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears tried an failed. They made some points and then covered as bigger buying came late in the day. They need a strong 1h bar close below 22k to turn this neutral again. For now they can only hope to sell new highs and scalp some points. Most bears wait for 22450ish and if we find more sellers there.
Invalidation is above 22150.
short term: Bullish. Below 22k that changes but for now you can buy every good bullish signal bar after a dip.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-16: Bulls are on their way of making a new ath again. So no bearish thoughts until market character changes dramatically again. I can see this going up to 23000 but not beyond. No bigger opinion on a medium-term outlook for this.
trade of the day: Very good bearish signal bar going into US open and then follow-through to 22200. Market then printed bar 36 + 37 and the big tails below was a good sign to be cautious with shorts because we are finding more buyers in that area, so the downside might probably be limited. Market then went sideways until we made a lower low major trend reversal with bar 53 + 54. 55 was the bar to go long on but could also have waited for bar 56. This has now also build a head & shoulders bottom and a measured move brings us above 22300 again.
S&P 500 Futures - The stop hunt before the next move higher?Trading SPY, QQQ, or its futures counterparts had people checking their swing trades! A previous pivot point near the 0.382 level showed an area of piled up stop loss orders. With a glimpse of all time highs early in the morning a new measurement was required at the over night swing level. Price took the elevator down to grab the liquidity before moving higher? Or will this mark a reversal point for the S&P 500?
GOLD rises above 2,900 USD again, attention to Trump and PutinOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery increased significantly due to factors such as a weaker US Dollar, geopolitical risks and uncertainty in US trade policy. As of the time this article was completed, spot gold increased to 2,909 USD/oz, an increase equivalent to 0.39% on the day.
The World Gold Council revealed central banks purchased more than 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year in 2024. According to the World Gold Council, central banks' gold purchases increased 54% year-on-year to 333 tons after Trump won the election.
On Monday local time, at the suggestion of French President Macron, leaders of many European countries held an emergency meeting in the French capital Paris to discuss issues such as the situation in Ukraine and collective European security.
According to French press reports, the biggest disagreement at the meeting that day was whether to send troops to Ukraine under the peacekeeping framework or not. British Prime Minister Starmer said the UK is ready to send ground troops if necessary. Germany and Spain objected.
At the same time, Ukraine's peace negotiations also became the focus of market attention. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday that he would travel to the Saudi capital Riyadh and hold talks with US representatives on Tuesday.
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he will soon meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia.
If a peace agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine, this may be the driving force for gold to be able to adjust significantly down in the near future. On the contrary, if the agreement "goes nowhere", gold will continue to increase in price because geopolitical risks once again increase.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
From the support level of 2,881 USD, note to readers in the previous issue that gold has surpassed the initial target level at the original price point of 2,900 USD and currently maintains price activity above this level.
With the current position, gold has conditions to continue to increase in price with the goal of reaching an all-time peak rather than renewing the previously achieved all-time peak.
The upward relative strength index shows that the bearish momentum is also weakening, giving way to overwhelming buying force.
In general, in terms of the overall technical picture, gold still tends to be completely bullish, and notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,900 – 2,881 – 2,857USD
Resistance: 2,942USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2921 - 2919⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2925
→Take Profit 1 2913
↨
→Take Profit 2 2907
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2849 - 2851⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2845
→Take Profit 1 2857
↨
→Take Profit 2 2863
2025-02-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Nothing bearish happening, so max bullishness. I scalp long until it stops working because are obviously not.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 22500 - 23200
bull case: Bulls want 23100ish and keep going. Since no one is taking bigger profits and bears not doing anything, why would it stop? Scalp long. If we break outside the bull channel, which is likely in Globex session, wait for a pull-back to maybe 22700 and a good bull signal bar before longing again.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears not doing anything so let’s skip this. Daily close below 22500 changes that again.
Invalidation is above 23200.
short term: Can’t be anything but bullish. Goes only up. Scalp long until it stops. 23k next and likely 23100/23200 because xetra will likely overshoot somewhat.
medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the Globex low since we could not even touch the close of last week. Market printed 1 decent bear bar on the 15m tf and that is obviously not enough to exit any long.
My thoughts for GCIm looking for areas of consolidation on a higher time frame preferably the one hour then on the 5min wait for a bullish engulfing to print to enter for buys, now Monday is a holiday so I know NYSE will be closed so for the entries already taken, during Asian opening will only be technical trades, but there is high impact news, and depending on descolations with
Russia, I plan for contiunation buys, but I plan to watch the dollar and the yields for any potential reversals to the. downside
GOLD heads towards all-time levels with a more positive outlookOANDA:XAUUSD has recovered as US Treasury yields plummet amid a trade war, existential and dangerous. The increase in gold purchases by central banks has created more room for gold price increases.
US real yields, which are inversely correlated with gold prices, fell 8 basis points to 2.072%, which is positive for gold. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 10 basis points to 4.519%.
Bloomberg said gold prices have stabilized near all-time highs after US President Trump ordered back-and-forth tariffs, increasing uncertainty in trade and the global economy.
Trump announced on Thursday local time that the United States will impose "reciprocal tariffs" on all countries exporting goods to the United States to restore a fair competitive environment in global trade, but has not yet given a specific implementation timeline.
This is a new escalation in the trade war after Trump announced an additional 25% tax on all steel and aluminum imported into the US.
The World Gold Council (WGC) revealed that central banks purchased more than 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year in 2024. According to the World Gold Council, the amount of gold purchased by central banks increased by more than 54% year-on-year to 333 tons after Trump won the election.
Central banks, including China's increased gold holdings and expansion of exchange-traded funds backed by the metal, have also supported gold's 12% gain so far this year.
Today's key financial data and events: Friday, February 14, 2025
① 17:00 Eurozone revised annual GDP rate in the fourth quarter
② 17:00 Eurozone seasonally adjusted initial employment rate in the fourth quarter
③ 20:30 Canadian monthly wholesale rate for December
④ 20:30 US monthly retail sales rate
in January
⑤ 21:30 US monthly import price index ratio for January
⑥ 21:15 US monthly industrial output rate for January
⑦ 22:00 US monthly commercial inventory ratio in December
⑧ 01:00 the next day Total number of oil rigs in the United States as of week ending February 14
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold continues to rise for the second day after gaining support from the confluence of the upper channel edge and the 0.236% Fibonacci extension, and with its current position it has the conditions to continue rising with a target of all-time highs in the short term, more likely new era highs targeting around 2,952 USD.
The bullish technical structure has not changed, with the short-term trend highlighted by the price channel, while the Relative Strength Index is still pointing up with the green uptrend showing no signs of a possible downside correction.
During the day, as long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook. Pullbacks do not see the RSI go below 80, and below EMA21 should only be considered a short-term correction and a short-term buying opportunity.
Along with that, notable levels will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,900 – 2,891USD
Resistance: 2,927 – 2,942 – 2,952USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2951 - 2949⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2955
→Take Profit 1 2943
↨
→Take Profit 2 2937
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2892 - 2894⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2888
→Take Profit 1 2900
↨
→Take Profit 2 2906
#202507 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls got the higher high. Next stop is likely a new ath above 22450. Weekly candle closed at the very top and all dips were bought last week. Let’s see how high we can go now. Bears can only dream of going below 21800 again.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 20500 - 22100
bull case: 22k was support on Friday and that’s my line in the sand for bulls. We stay above, much more upside to follow. Next targets are the obvious ath 22450 but my next ones would be 22500 and then 23000. We have a bigger bull trend line around 21700 but also one on the 1h tf at 22150. In any case, bulls should keep it above 22000 or we could go 200-300 points lower from there. The weekly chart shows nested bull wedges and we could go up to 22700 for the most recent one. Problem for the bulls is that we don’t have a single monthly close above 21946 so this month’s end will be interesting if we stay above 22000 until then.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears gave up on Thursday and Friday and they will probably try again near 22450. If bears somehow manage to break below Friday’s low 22042/22000, their next target would be the breakout price at 21930 but that is very low probability as of now. If anything it would be news related and we saw every news bomb being bought last week, even hot cpi/ppi numbers.
Invalidation is above 22500.
short term: Bulls bought it all last week and I think Thu/Fri showed bears giving up. We can only assume higher prices next week and a retest of the ath. Dips are likely very good buying opportunities if we stay above 22000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-16: Bulls are on their way of making a new ath again. So no bearish thoughts until market character changes dramatically again. I can see this going up to 23000 but not beyond. No bigger opinion on a medium-term outlook for this.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed bearish trash.
DXY Weekly Chart: "The Bull-trap Breakout"The US Dollar Index is currently positioned at the top of its trading range, which has been in play since 2023 on the weekly timeframe. This presents a solid bearish setup, as the index is likely to reverse and trade back into the range.
This trade idea has been in play since September of 2024 when we were still trading at the BOTTOM of the rang e