From Gambling to Investing: A ShiftInvesting vs. Gambling: Differentiating Between Strategic Trading and Risky Behavior
Many traders believe they have a foolproof strategy, yet they may be engaging in gambling rather than true investing without even realizing it. The distinction between investing and gambling can often appear ambiguous, particularly for newcomers in the financial markets. Understanding these critical differences is essential for achieving long-term financial success. If your trading approach lacks structure and discipline, you may be risking the integrity of your portfolio and ultimately compromising your wealth-building efforts. So, is your strategy geared toward creating wealth, or are you merely playing a high-stakes game of chance?
Investing: A Strategic Approach to Wealth Creation
Investing is a methodical approach to accumulating wealth over time, characterized by careful analysis and strategic planning. It's not merely about buying assets with the hope of making quick returns; true investing focuses on achieving sustainable, long-term financial growth. Investors ground their decisions in fundamental research, market trends, and controlled risk management strategies designed to balance potential gains with well-calculated risks.
The core tenet of investing is to cultivate wealth gradually, whether through stocks, bonds, real estate, or other financial instruments. For instance, investing in the stock market typically means acquiring shares of a company you believe will experience growth over time, enhancing the value of your investment in the process. Instead of pursuing immediate results, investors tend to hold onto assets with the expectation that they will appreciate over the long haul.
Key elements of successful investing include diversification, patience, and discipline. Diversification spreads risk across various assets, reducing dependence on any single investment or sector. Patience enables investors to endure market fluctuations without impulsive reactions. Disciplined investors adhere to their strategies, understanding that successful investing is a long-term endeavor.
Research plays a monumental role in investing. Investors scrutinize company performance, industry trends, and broader economic indicators to inform their decisions. This approach stands in stark contrast to gambling behaviors, wherein decisions are often made haphazardly and devoid of analytical backing.
In essence, investing is about taking proactive measures, preparing for the future, and assembling a portfolio that will generate wealth over time. This stands in direct opposition to gambling, which relies on chance rather than informed strategy.
Gambling in Trading: The Perils of Impulsive Decisions
In contrast to the structured foundation of investing, gambling within trading is characterized by impulsiveness, emotional responses, and a pursuit of immediate rewards. Traders who approach the markets with a gambling mindset often ignore the associated risks, opting instead for gut instincts and instinctive choices rather than data-driven analysis.
One hallmark of gambling in trading is the reliance on high-risk strategies, including excessive leverage and day trading without a coherent plan. Leverage allows one to control significant trades with a relatively small initial capital outlay, but it also magnifies potential losses. Traders who gamble often neglect to manage their risks adequately; a single misstep can lead to substantial financial losses.
Impulsive trading is another red flag. These traders leap into positions based on market hype, rumors, or fear of missing out (FOMO), making decisions without thorough analysis. This behavior resembles that of a gambler in a casino, chasing quick profits while allowing the allure of winning to cloud their judgment.
Emotions can drive decision-making in gambling approaches to trading. Rather than adhering to a consistent strategy, traders follow whims fueled by fear or greed. For instance, an investor might panic and liquidate assets after a market downturn, only to miss out on a subsequent recovery. Conversely, they might hold onto declining assets, hoping for an upswing—this behavior is known as "loss chasing."
Ultimately, gambling in trading proves to be unsustainable. Although there may be sporadic wins, these are often overshadowed by significant losses over time. Without a structured strategy and disciplined risk management, traders who engage in gambling behaviors are likely to watch their financial goals slip further from reach.
Identifying Gambling Behavior in Trading
Recognizing signs that your trading habits have veered into gambling territory is vital for safeguarding your financial future. Various indicators can signal whether your activities align more with disciplined investing or impulsive gambling.
One prominent sign is the act of chasing losses. Traders who chase losses hold onto losing positions in the hope that the market will eventually favor them. This mirrors a gambler's refusal to walk away, instead choosing to bet more in an attempt to recover previous losses. Rather than taking a step back to reassess and minimize losses, these traders continue to pour money into a futile situation—an extremely risky mindset, as the market can remain unfavorable for extended periods.
Another concerning behavior is over-leveraging, which occurs when traders utilize borrowed funds to increase the size of their positions. While leverage can amplify profits, it also heightens the risk of devastating losses. A small adverse price movement can wipe out an entire leveraged account, reflecting a reckless approach usually associated with gambling rather than strategic investing.
Emotional decision-making serves as another indicator of gambling behavior. Traders driven by fear of missing out, greed, or panic often make impulsive trades without proper analysis or predetermined strategies. This sharply contrasts with disciplined investing, where decisions are based on logic and research rather than emotional reactions to market fluctuations.
Frequent changes to trading strategies, an obsession with high-risk assets, and a lack of focus on long-term objectives are additional signs that one may be gambling instead of investing. If you're consistently bouncing between speculative opportunities and short-lived get-rich-quick schemes, reassessing your approach is crucial.
Key Differences Between Investing and Gambling
At first glance, investing and gambling may seem similar—both involve placing money with the expectation of profit. However, the fundamental differences between them are significant. Investing is a deliberate, research-informed strategy aimed at accumulating wealth over time, while gambling heavily relies on chance, immediate returns, and emotional decision-making.
One primary distinction is the reliance on analysis-based decision-making versus luck-driven outcomes. In investing, decisions arise from thorough research, including in-depth analysis of a company's financial health, market trends, and economic conditions. Investors leverage this information to make informed choices that align with their long-term financial aspirations. In contrast, gambling is largely speculative, making decisions with little analytical support and leaving outcomes to chance.
Another critical difference lies in risk management practices. Investors strategize for various scenarios through portfolio diversification and loss mitigation approaches. For example, diversification involves distributing investments across different assets to minimize exposure to any single risk. Conversely, gamblers tend to place their bets on specific trades or assets, embracing excessive risk without contemplating long-term repercussions.
Finally, long-term planning is integral to investing. Successful investors concentrate on wealth growth over extended periods, allowing their investments to benefit from compound growth steadily. On the other hand, gambling typically pursues immediate gratification without looking toward sustainable growth or the larger financial picture.
Consequences of Gambling versus Benefits of Investing
The consequences of gambling in financial markets are severe and frequently result in financial ruin. Traders who gamble regularly engage in high-risk behaviors like impulsive trades and over-leveraging, leading to extreme volatility and significant losses. The initial pursuit of quick profits can swiftly transform into devastating financial outcomes, draining portfolios and endangering long-term financial stability. The psychological impact of these losses often leads to further poor decision-making, perpetuating a cycle of impulsivity and high-risk behavior.
Conversely, long-term investing paves the way for steady, sustainable growth. Investors who adhere to disciplined, research-oriented strategies are much more likely to accumulate wealth over time. Investing emphasizes patience, comprehensive analysis, and diversification, allowing investors to shield themselves from volatility while enjoying the benefits of compound growth. Although it may not offer the adrenaline high of speculative trading, disciplined investing fosters security and stability, setting the stage for consistent returns.
The compounding effect is a notable advantage of long-term investment strategies, where returns build on one another, resulting in exponential growth over time. Although the process may seem slow initially, compounding accelerates as the years progress, transforming modest gains into substantial wealth. This gradual and predictable method significantly lowers the risk of catastrophic loss compared to gambling.
Ultimately, the choice lies between the thrill of gambling, often culminating in significant losses, and the sustained financial stability and growth afforded by disciplined investing. Opting for long-term investment sets the foundation for a prosperous financial future, steering clear of the emotional traps and reckless behaviors associated with gambling.
Cultivating an Investment Mindset
Transitioning from a gambling mentality to a disciplined investment mindset requires deliberate changes in how you interpret and execute trades. Developing an investment mindset involves creating a strategy, adhering to it, and prioritizing long-term gains over immediate rewards.
The first step is crafting a trading strategy that aligns with your financial objectives and risk tolerance. A well-formulated trading plan specifies clear guidelines for entering and exiting positions, outlines risk management strategies, and identifies the types of assets you intend to trade. Establishing a plan minimizes impulsive decisions based on fleeting emotions or market distractions. Whether you trade stocks, forex, or commodities, a research-backed blueprint equips you to approach the market calmly and strategically.
Discipline constitutes the foundation of a successful investment mindset. Even amid tumultuous market movements, disciplined traders remain committed to their strategy. Although it may be tempting to deviate from your plan during moments of uncertainty, long-term success relies on maintaining consistency. Whether experiencing a bull market or confronting sudden downturns, the key is to avoid emotional reactions and instead adhere to your established guidelines.
Effective risk management is another essential aspect of fostering an investment mindset. Rather than risking your entire capital on a single trade or relying on excessive leverage, consciously manage your exposure. Implement Stop Loss orders to limit downside risk, and never invest more than you can afford to lose. This approach helps keep potential losses manageable, preventing the reckless betting that frequently results in financial calamity.
Keeping emotions under control is equally vital. Successful traders recognize the markets' unpredictable nature, and fixating on short-term fluctuations can cloud judgment. Concentrating on long-term objectives and periodically reviewing performance can promote objectivity. Focus on data, analysis, and logical reasoning rather than emotional reactions to market volatility.
Lastly, committing to ongoing education is crucial. Learning about market dynamics, financial trends, and trading methodologies will bolster your confidence and discipline. Adopting an investment mindset is a continuous journey, but its benefits—long-term growth, stability, and reduced stress—are undoubtedly worth the effort.
Conclusion
Grasping the difference between investing and gambling is essential for anyone seeking success in the financial markets. While the allure of quick profits through gambling may be tempting, it frequently leads to financial disaster. In contrast, investing demands patience, strategy, and discipline, yielding consistent, long-term growth.
By identifying gambling tendencies within your trading behavior, you can transition toward a more structured, investment-focused mindset. Taking control of your trading methodology means meticulously planning your trades, managing risk, and concentrating on long-term results. The key to forging lasting wealth in financial markets lies in disciplined investing, not reckless gambling.
Read also:
Gambling
Insider Knowledge: Exploiting the House Money EffectIntroduction
In trading and investing, psychological biases significantly influence decision-making. One such bias is the "House Money Effect." Understanding this effect can help traders avoid common pitfalls and take advantage of this phenomenon.
What is the House Money Effect?
The House Money Effect is a psychological phenomenon where individuals are more likely to take risks with money they have won rather than their initial capital. In trading, this means traders become more risk-tolerant after experiencing gains, treating profits as "house money" and taking on higher risks than they would with their own capital.
Why Does It Happen?
The House Money Effect occurs due to several psychological factors:
Mental Accounting : People tend to treat money differently based on its source. Profits are often seen as less valuable than initial capital.
Overconfidence : After a winning streak, traders may become overconfident in their abilities, leading to riskier trades.
Loss Aversion : Gains are perceived as a buffer, reducing the fear of losses and encouraging riskier behavior.
Example of the House Money Effect on Crypto
In the 2021 Crypto Bull Market, we saw Bitcoin soar to all time highs. This subsequently caused many altcoins to rally really hard resulting in some 100-500x and numerous 2-3x tokens. If you observed at what point in the timeline this happened, this happened towards the end of the bull run, when everyone already knew about crypto and everybody was seemingly getting rich by buying cryptocurrencies. This was the peak of retail activity, which includes newcomers as well as those who got rich from holding tokens earlier.
This is a perfect example of the phenomenon with several key characteristics
Was after a period of extreme gains
Was causing risk assets to outperform, suggesting a higher risk tolerance in the market
Immediately after the markets tanked, clearly indicating this was a massive retail loss
By understanding and spotting the House Money Effect, traders can better manage their emotions and make more rational trading decisions. Recognizing this bias is the first step toward mitigating its impact and maintaining a disciplined trading strategy. We hope you enjoyed reading this idea.
Is trading really gambling? Yes and no!I know why you’re NOT trading.
You think trading is nothing more than gambling.
I get emails every day from members saying things like.
“Timon trading seems like going to the casino”.
“Timon I don’t want to put money into something that’s gambling”
“Timon thanks but I don’t gamble”
So you’re not trading because you think it’s like gambling.
Well, before you send me another email like this – Please make sure you read this carefully.
Let’s dive into the heated debate and let’s see if I agree whether trading is just gambling.
Does Timon think trading is just gambling?
YES! I do believe trading is a form of gambling.
BUT – hold on…
Gambling exists in two realms. Chance vs. Strategy
There is chance gambling and strategic gambling.
Chance gambling is similar to playing slot machines, lotteries, and coin tosses.
It’s 50/50. And it’s all up to chance.
Have you ever heard of a professional slots player or coin flipper?
I don’t think so.
Then in the other realm of gambling is known as strategic gambling.
The strategic domain is where skill, knowledge, risk management, methodology, probabilities and decision-making play crucial roles.
And that my friend, is why I believe trading is a form of strategic gambling.
You do get professional and successful poker and black jack players, sports bettors and of course traders.
Right?
And that’s because you need skill, strategies and the right techniques to WIN as oppose to mere luck.
So before you quit trading because you think it’s nothing more than gambling, allow me to go one step further.
Let’s talk about the similarities between certain strategic gambling games and see how we can learn from them with trading.
Strategic Game #1:
Trading and Poker – The art of strategy and risk management
Poker and trading share a few similarities.
They both emphasize skill, strategy, and a sprinkle of luck.
But you need a deep understanding of the rules.
You need keen observation of the competitors.
You need adeptness at risk, reward and money management.
Poker players and traders alike must know when to hold their ground and when to fold.
Poker players put their cards down when the probability is low.
Traders either don’t take the trade, risk little in medium probability trades and use tools like stop losses to risk little.
Poker also teaches the importance of emotional control and patience.
And these as I have written many times before, are crucial in trading.
Because emotional decisions can lead to significant losses with both poker and with trading.
Next game…
Game #2: Trading and Roulette
Playing the probabilities
It may seem at first that roulette leans more towards chance.
Red or black, odd or even etc…
But the fact that you have a choice, means that it offers you some form of probability.
A fundamental concept in trading are probabilities.
Traders, like professional roulette players, use statistical analysis to help make informed and better decisions.
It is unpredictable what the ball will land on.
Just like it is unpredictable which way the market will go.
But if you have a sound system, proven track record and winning strategy – you will be able to base the probabilities and tilt the odds in your favour – over time.
In trading, while certain market movements can’t be predicted with absolute certainty, we rely heavily on technical, fundamental, statistical analysis and probabilities to make trading decisions.
Trading, much like roulette, is where you need to diversify your positions and bets.
And you can WIN in the long run if you follow your high probability strategy.
Game #3: Trading and Blackjack
How a maths boffon can win overtime
In blackjack, players make strategic decisions to outmaneuver the dealer.
The main goal is to try and get the cards we’re dealt to hit 21, be close to 21 or be closer to 21 than our opponent’s hand.
Bet too high past 21 and you burn (lose).
This is similar to trading.
You need to be able to analyse the marker conditions.
You need to be able to calculate your position sizes and risk management according to your trade line up.
Both games need you to have a balance of risk, strategy, and knowledge to succeed.
Game #4: Trading and Horse Racing
Know your horse!
Now this is a game that has turned many statisticians into multi millionaires.
Horse racing is where you need to know and choose the right horse that will win based on its:
Form
Characteristics
Conditions of the race
Weather on the day
and other factors.
They study the characteristics, and race conditions to a T.
They calculate based on past performance on which horse has the higher probability of winning.
Traders need to know their horses (markets) too.
Every market you choose to trade, has its own personality, form, movements, and style.
You need to check to see if the chosen market has worked for your trading system and portfolio over time.
And you need to choose the right time, market environment and other factors – before you take on the trade.
In horse racing, experienced bettors also diversify their bets across multiple races and horses to spread risk.
With trading we diversify our portfolios over different accounts, markets, sectors, instruments and types.
Finally let’s talk about the last game:
Game #5: Trading and Sports Betting
The power of predictive analysis
Sports betting, much like trading, relies on predictive analysis to almost see potential outcomes.
If you understand a team’s performance, strategy, and conditions – You will be able to make better betting decisions for the next game.
As a sports bettor you definitely need to know how to analyse a team’s or player’s form, weather conditions, past scores and more to predict an outcome.
Whether it’s football, rugby or cricket – you need to have your winning game plan to increase your chances of winning the bet.
Traders do the same. They have different markets like sports bettors have different games.
Traders also conduct similar technical, fundamental, sentimental, volume analyses to help predict potential market movements.
Both activities involve calculated risk-taking, aiming for high-probability successes based on thorough research and analysis.
Final words:
So, as you can see trading is MORE than just gambling.
Unlike games of pure chance, trading is a disciplined, analytical pursuit that shares more in common with skill-based gambling.
It does require you however to have the right knowledge, strategy, and strong risk, reward and money management.
Let’s sum up the games and sports vs trading so you can remember what we’ve covered today:
Game #1: Trading and Poker – The art of strategy and risk management
Game #2: Trading and Roulette – Playing the probabilities
Game #3: Trading and Blackjack – How a maths boffon can win overtime
Game #4: Trading and Horse Racing – Know your horse!
Game #5: Trading and Sports Betting – The power of predictive analysis
DO YOU THINK TRADING IS LIKE GAMBLING?
Let’s Compare INVESTING, TRADING and GAMBLING
Hey traders,
In this post, we will compare investing, trading and gambling .
📈 Investing
Investing is the act of putting money in a financial market with the expectations of a long-term positive return.
The investing decisions are usually made using fundamental analysis.
The main goal of an investor is to predict the long-term market trends and benefit on them.
Professional investing also involves assets allocation and diversification aimed to hedge potential risks.
💱 Trading
Trading is the process of selling and buying financial instruments expecting a short-term (occasionally, mid-term) profit.
The trading decisions are usually based on technical and fundamentals analysis.
The goal of a trader is to predict local price fluctuations and catch them.
Professional trading implies strict, rule-based actions following a trading plan.
🎰 Gambling
Gambling is the act of betting on a specific event with the expectations of winning some value.
Being completely luck-based, gambling usually involves get rich quick schemes and pursuit of easy money.
What differs professional trading and investing from gambling is the fact that professional trading / investing involves objective analysis and strict planning, while gambling remains purely intuition based.
Unfortunately, most of the market participants pretend that they trade and invest professionally while acting as gamblers in fact.
Remember that long-term, consistent profits can be achieved only with the plan. Your intuition may bring some short-term profits, but in a long-run it will most likely lead you to a bankruptcy.
Is Trading Gambling?How many people lost money within the past 60 days?
How much invalid effort has been made?
Trading crypto assets is basically gambling.
Based on my experience and the traders I've dealt with, I haven't seen any traders who consistently use leverage and make a fortune. It's common for traders to see 100% return on investment (ROI) in a month, then lose everything in a single day.
To repeat, Trading crypto assets is basically gambling!!!
Because of the weakness of human being:
Lack of discipline, improper position sizing, and canceling stop-loss orders are all recipe for disastrous risk management.
Emotions: Fear and greed
Loss Aversion, Humans feel the pain of losing more intensely than the pleasure of winning.
Sunken Cost Fallacy: People are reluctant to walk away from something they've already invested in, even if it's a losing proposition.
Confirmation Bias: Seeking out information that confirms your existing beliefs about a position, while ignoring contradictory evidence.
etc..........
So if you are human being, stay away from trading, consider exploring alternative investment options like AI-powered signals, automated services, or ETFs with a history of consistent returns. However, remember that even these involve risks, so thorough research is crucial.
Trading &/or GamblingThe difference between trading and gambling.
This article will shine a light on the most frequent mistakes that traders make. These mistakes blur the thin line between trading and gambling.
Many people have spoken on this topic, but we truly believe that it is still not sufficient, and traders should be better educated on how to avoid gambling behaviour and emotional outbursts. When we speak about trading versus gambling, we define gambling as the act of making irrational, emotional and quick decisions.
Most of the time, these decisions are based on greed, and sometimes fear of the trader. Let’s dive into the exact problems we have personally experienced thousands of times, and want to help others avoid.
1 ♠ Bad Money Management
This is something that everyone has heard at least once, but seems to naively ignore in the hopes that it is not that important .
It is the most important . When a trader enters trades, it is exceptionally alluring to enter with all of their money, or close to all of it. In gambling terms, that is going “All in”, or “All or nothing”.
As a rule of thumb, both traders and gamblers should only place or bet money that they can afford to lose.
Thankfully, at least in trading one can limit their loss for that specific trade, by placing a stop loss or exiting before total liquidation. In Poker, you can’t fold when you are “All in” and take a portion of your money back. However, that does not mean entering trades with full capital, even with a stop-loss, is going to give you exponential returns and feed your greed for profits.
Traders should enter positions with a small amount of their full capital, to limit the damage from losses. Yes, you also limit the possibility that you win a few trades in a row with all of your money and… There goes the greed we mentioned.
The “globally perfect” percent of equity you need to enter trades to reach that balance between being too cautious and too greedy does not exist. There are methods, like the Kelly Criterion, as described in our previous Idea (see related ideas below), that help you optimize your money management.
Always ask yourself, “How much can I afford to lose?”. Aim for a balanced approach. This way you can position yourself within the market for a long and a good time, not just for a few lucky wins. Greedy money management, or lack thereof, ends in liquidations and heartbreak.
2 ♣ The Use of Leverage
Anyone who has tried using leverage, knows how easy it is to lose your position (or full) capital in seconds. Using leverage is mainly sold to retail traders as a tool for them to loan money from the exchange or broker and bet with it. It is extremely profitable for institutions, since it multiplies the fees you pay them ten to one hundred-fold.
In our opinion, leverage isn’t something that should be entirely avoided. However, it should be limited as much as possible.
We cannot deny that using 1-5x leverage can be beneficial for people with small accounts and a thirst for growth, however as the leverage grows, the more of a gambler you become.
We often see people share profits made using 20+ times leverage. Some even use ridiculous leverages within the range of 50-125x.
If you are doing that, do you truly trust your entry so much that you believe the market won’t move 1% against your decision and liquidate you immediately?
At this point, the gambling aspect should be evident, and it goes without saying that you should not touch this “125x Golden Apple”, like Eve in the Garden of Eden. Especially when you see a snake-exchange promote it.
If you use a low amount of leverage, and grow your account to the point where you don’t need it for your personal goals in terms of monetary profit. You should consider stopping the use of it, and at least know you’ll be able to sleep at night.
3 ♥ Always Being In A Position
Always being either long or short leads to addiction and becomes gambling. While we don’t have scientific proof of that, we can give you our own experience as an example. To be a profitable trader, you do not need to always be in a position, or chase every single move on the market.
You need to develop the ability just to sit back and watch, analyse and make conscious decisions. Let the bad opportunities trick someone else, while you patiently wait for all your pre-defined conditions to give you a real signal.
When you think of trading, remember that the market has a trend the minority (around 20-30%) of the time. If you are always in a position, this means that 70-80% of the time you are hoping that something will happen in your favour. That, by definition, is gambling.
Another aspect, that we have experienced a lot, is that while you remain in a position, especially if you have used leverage, you are constantly paying your exchange fees. You can be in a short position for a week and pay daily fees which only damage your equity, and therefore margin ratio. So why not just sit back, be patient and define some concrete rules for entering and exiting?
Avoid risky situations, and let the market bring the profits whenever it decides to.
4 ♦ Chasing Huge Profits
Hold your horses, Warren Buffett. Through blood, sweat and tears, we can promise you that you cannot seriously expect to make 100% every month, no matter what magical backtesting or statistics you are calculating your future fortune on.
Moreover, you will realise that consistently making 2-5% a month is an excellent career for a trader.
Yes, the markets can be good friends for a while, you may stumble into a bull-run and start making double-digit profits from a trade from time to time. Double-digit losses will also follow if you lose your sight in a cloud of euphoria and greed.
Many times, you can follow the “profit is profit” principle, and exit at a small win if the risk of loss is increasing.
5 ♠ Being Sentimental Towards Given Assets
You may have a fondness for Bitcoin and Tesla, and we understand that because we too have our favourites. Perhaps you’re deeply attached to the vision, community and purpose of certain projects. On the flip side, there may be projects that you completely despise and hope their prices plummet to zero.
What you personally like and dislike, should not interfere with your work as a trader. Introducing such strong emotions into your trading will lead you into a loop of irrational decisions. You may find yourself asking, “Why isn’t this price going parabolic with how good the project is?”.
This sounds, from personal experience, quite similar to sitting at a Roulette table and asking: “Why does it keep landing on red when I’ve been constantly betting black? It has to change any moment now”.
First and foremost, you may be completely wrong, but most importantly – it could go parabolic, but trying to predict the exact time or expecting it to happen immediately and placing your “bet” on that is again, gambling.
Don’t get attached to projects when trading. If you are an investor who just wants to hold their shares in an awesome company, or cryptocurrency, that is perfectly fine, hold them as much as you want.
The key is to make an important distinction between trading and investing, and to base your strategy on the hand that the market provides you with.
6 ♣ Putting Your Eggs In One Basket
We all have heard of diversification, but how you approach it is crucial. A trader should always have their capital spread between at least a few assets. Furthermore, the trading strategy for each asset must be distinct, or in other words – they should not rely on the same entry and exit conditions for different assets.
The markets behave differently for each asset, and you cannot be profitable with some magical indicator or strategy with a “one-size-fits-all” style. Divide your trades into different pairs and asset classes, and study each market individually to properly diversify. Manage the equity you put into each trade carefully!
Conclusion
The takeaway we want you as a reader to have from this article is that trading without consciously controlling your emotions inevitably leads to great loss and most importantly, a lot of stress.
We hate stress. Trading and life in general is exponentially harder when you are under stress. Control your risk, sleep easy, and let the market bring you profits.
Reaching this level of Zen will not be easy, but it is inevitable. Be happy when you make a profit, no matter how small or big. A lot of small profits and proper money management complete the vision you have of a successful business. Ultimately, trading is just that – work, not gambling or a pastime activity. Treat it as work and always remember to never rely on luck.
The advice we’ve included here is written by a few experienced gamblers… Oops, I meant traders 😉.
We hope that some of the lessons we’ve had to painstakingly learn through trial and error can now be shared with those who are interested. Of course, none of this constitutes investment advice. It’s merely a friendly heads-up.
PUT TO BED: Trading VS GamblingIt’s a big debate that runs the financial market.
Is trading gambling?
Well I’m going to try put it to bed in just a few sentences.
There are two types of gambling.
Gambling by chance and total randomness like slot machines, lotteries, Bingo, Wheel of Fortune and flipping coins.
And strategic gambling which allows you elements of control of coming out with a probabilistic chance of winning.
I believe trading is a form of strategic gambling.
Let’s talk about the similarities between certain strategic gambling games and see how we can learn from them with trading.
Game #1: Trading and Poker: Skill, Strategy, and a Bit of Luck
In poker, each player gets a unique hand of cards.
To win, players must devise a strategy based on their understanding of the game, their observation of their opponents, and their willingness to take risks.
Players can choose to play, bet or fold.
The same principles apply to trading.
Traders have their ‘hand’ in the form of markets to choose to trade.
To yield profit, they must understand market trends, observe competitors’ behaviours, and manage risks.
In poker, one needs to know when to fold and when to bet aggressively.
In trading we have stop losses to get us out of the trade.
We have take profits to bank our wins.
We have volume choices of how much to buy or sell.
And we have the choice to stay out completely.
Poker also teaches the importance of emotional control and patience, which are crucial in trading, where emotional decisions can lead to significant losses.
Game #2: Trading and Roulette: Understanding Probabilities
Roulette is largely a game of chance where players bet on numbers, colours, or sets of numbers.
You choose whether you want to bet on red, black, even, odd, specific numbers and so on…
Although the outcomes are random, players can use probability to guide their decisions.
In trading, while certain market movements can’t be predicted with absolute certainty, we rely heavily on technical, fundamental, statistical analysis and probabilities to make trading decisions.
Trading, much like roulette, is where you need to diversify your positions and bets.
But instead of placing chips on certain numbers, we place deposits (margins) in the hopes of a probable outcome.
Game #3: Trading and Blackjack: Playing Against the Market (House)
Blackjack involves strategic decisions, where players decide to ‘hit’ or ‘stand’ based on their current hand and the dealer’s visible card.
The main goal is to try and get the cards we’re dealt to hit 21, be close to 21 or be closer to 21 than our opponent’s hand.
Bet too high past 21 and you burn.
In trading, technical analysis serves a similar purpose by predicting future market movements based on past data.
Bet too high with trading and you stand to lose a lot more.
And if you can’t count with Black Jack, then you have a much bigger disadvantage to the game.
If you don’t have strong and stringent money management principles, then good luck trying to maintain, preserve and protect your portfolio.
Game #4: Trading and Horse Racing: Know your horse!
Horse racing involves choosing the right horse based on its:
Form
Characteristics
Conditions of the race
Weather on the day
and other factors.
This is like trading. You need to understand each market you trade.
It has its own personality, form, movements, and style.
You also need to know which market is conducive for your trading portfolio.
And you need to choose the right stock or asset to trade based on its performance history, current market conditions, and other factors.
In horse racing, experienced bettors also diversify their bets across multiple races and horses to spread risk.
With trading we diversify our portfolios over different accounts, markets, sectors, instruments and types.
Game #5: Trading and Sports Betting: Predictive Analysis and Risk
Sports betting also works similar to trading.
You need to know how to analyse a team’s or player’s form, weather conditions, home and away records, and more to predict an outcome.
Whether it’s football, rugby or cricket – you need to know your team players, strategy and likelihood of who is to win what game.
Traders also conduct similar analyses, studying companies’ financial health, market trends, and technical indicators to predict market movements.
And as always, there are both risks that need to be calculated and managed for high probability successful outcomes.
So next time when someone tells you trading is just gambling. You tell them, they are right but it’s strategic gambling rather than gambling by chance.
📈Investing vs. Speculating: Understanding the Key Differences📉Navigating the Financial Landscape: Investing vs. Speculating for Smart Financial Growth
In the intricate world of stock trading, distinguishing between an investor and a speculator is vital, despite their mutual interest in market analysis. Each follows distinct approaches and objectives, and understanding these differences is paramount before venturing into the stock market. With diverse individuals seeking to capitalize on opportunities and make profits, this article delves into the contrasting methods and goals of investors and speculators, shedding light on their unique strategies.
Understanding the Distinction: Investor vs. Speculator
At first glance, differentiating between an investor and a speculator might seem challenging. After all, both activities involve buying and selling stocks and require initial market analysis. However, the nature of these two approaches varies significantly.
Before delving into the world of stock markets, grasping the difference between investing and speculation is essential. Each day, the stock exchange witnesses countless transactions, leading to continuous price fluctuations. Behind each trade lies an individual with their own motivations, strategies, and rules, all driven by the common desire to make money. However, their approaches diverge; some choose to invest, while others opt for speculation.
Let's explore the dissimilarities. Who exactly is an investor?
Investing involves purchasing stocks of companies at their intrinsic value, with the expectation of long-term growth and subsequent profitability. As the definition suggests, patience is required, as companies do not experience substantial growth within mere weeks. Investors build portfolios of stocks with a focus on the years ahead. Moreover, investors can generate income through means other than price appreciation alone. By becoming shareholders, stock buyers become co-owners of the company. They can participate in general meetings organized by the company and receive dividends, which are a portion of the company's profits shared with its investors. This way, investors receive periodic returns.
Investing necessitates comprehensive analysis of the company whose stock one intends to acquire. The objective is to enhance the value of the acquired assets over the long term. Evaluating the prospects of a specific sector and the company itself entails reading recommendations, staying informed about market trends, and skillfully combining relevant information. Proficient investors are capable of constructing portfolios that yield consistent profits year after year.
On the other hand, a speculator approaches the stock market differently. Speculation involves buying and selling stocks with the anticipation of profiting from short-term price fluctuations. Speculators typically focus on quick gains and may not be concerned about the company's long-term prospects. Their decisions are often driven by technical analysis and market trends, aiming to capitalize on short-term price movements.
While both investors and speculators participate in the stock market, understanding their differing approaches and objectives is critical for making informed choices and achieving financial growth.
Meet the Speculator: Focused on Profits and Market Swings
Speculators are individuals whose primary focus is on making profits in the stock market. Unlike investors who carefully analyze the specific stocks they buy and the performance of the underlying companies, speculators are more concerned with the high volatility of prices that offers potential for quick gains. They may not be as concerned about the long-term prospects of a company; what matters most to them is the opportunity to capitalize on price movements, whether upward or downward.
Unlike investors who prefer to hold stocks for the long term, speculators aim to quickly buy and resell stocks to profit from short-term price fluctuations. They may even utilize financial instruments such as contracts to benefit from falling prices. For speculators, the direction of price movement becomes inconsequential; they can make gains regardless of whether stock prices rise or fall.
One instance of speculation occurred during the aftermath of the Brexit referendum when stock prices plummeted. Speculators saw an opportunity to acquire stocks at low prices, and many stocks rebounded in the following days. By investing in undervalued companies and taking advantage of people's tendency to overreact, speculators made significant profits within a short period.
Unlike investors who focus on a company's financial performance and long-term growth prospects, speculators rely more on charts and market sentiment. They are sensitive to emotions in the market, such as fear during potential financial crises or uncertainties surrounding elections, which can significantly influence price swings. Speculators thrive on exploiting these rapid price movements, finding ample opportunities for their trading activities.
However, it's important to note that speculating in the stock market involves heightened stress and risks due to the significant price fluctuations. As prices can change rapidly, speculators need to be prepared for the potential downsides and be well-versed in managing risks effectively.
Timing Matters: The Distinct Approach of Traders and Speculators
Distinguishing between traders and speculators becomes evident when considering the time factor in the world of stock trading. Investing in stocks requires patience, relying on a company's future growth, financial results, and potential dividends. Successful investing often involves waiting for several years to achieve substantial growth, surpassing the performance of other instruments like funds.
On the other hand, speculation hinges on understanding short-term market sentiment and making quick decisions. Swift reactions to market changes are necessary as the stock market is prone to significant sell-offs followed by potential reversals. Speculators closely monitor the market and wait patiently for opportune moments to capitalize on rapid price movements.
The paradox of speculation lies in the contrasting time frames involved: speculation itself is brief, but speculators invest considerable time observing charts compared to traders who simply maintain open positions.
Combining Investment and Speculation
In principle, one doesn't have to exclusively choose between investing and speculating. However, effectively combining an equity portfolio with a speculative portfolio demands substantial experience and time. It's essential to bear in mind that speculation carries significantly higher risks compared to investing.
A seasoned investor can gradually construct a small speculative portfolio while allocating the majority of funds to long-term investments in stocks. The stock portfolio consistently builds capital, while the speculative portion can potentially yield an additional "bonus" when favorable market opportunities arise.
Investor Sleeps Well: The Patient Approach of Investors
While speculators engage in the challenging pursuit of profiting from daily price fluctuations, investors adopt a different approach. Investors carefully select stocks for their portfolios and patiently wait, exercising risk control. This approach enables them to focus on their professions or businesses while allowing their savings to grow through capital appreciation.
One notable example of this investment strategy is Warren Buffett. Buffett has dedicated years to constructing portfolios by choosing shares of reliable companies that consistently share profits with their shareholders through dividend payments. This straightforward strategy, employed for decades, surpasses the performance of speculators and aggressive mutual funds.
Success in investing relies on an investor's knowledge and understanding of prevailing market conditions. While the latter remains beyond anyone's control, the former depends solely on the experience gained with each subsequent trade. Investing is a gradual process, and as experience accumulates, positive results are more likely to emerge. Patience, discipline, and a long-term perspective are key traits of successful investors.
The Best Approach: Investment or Speculation?
The question of whether to invest or speculate ultimately depends on your individual goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. Both strategies have their merits and cater to different types of traders.
Investing is a long-term strategy that involves buying stocks of companies at their intrinsic value with the expectation of long-term growth and profits. Patient investors hold onto their stocks for years, conducting thorough analyses of company prospects and making informed decisions based on research and market information. They can also benefit from dividends as co-owners of the company, providing a steady income stream. Investing requires a disciplined approach to constructing portfolios that generate systematic profits over time.
On the other hand, speculation is a short-term strategy driven by the desire for quick profits. Speculators are primarily motivated by profit and take advantage of high volatility in stock prices. They may not necessarily focus on a company's financial performance or the overall state of the economy. Speculators need to react swiftly to market changes, capitalizing on price swings. However, this approach involves higher stress and risk. Speculators can profit from both rising and falling prices, and their success relies heavily on understanding short-term market sentiment.
While both investment and speculation have their merits, it's essential to note that speculation is generally riskier and requires a deep understanding of market dynamics. Combining an equity portfolio with speculative positions can be challenging and time-consuming. Most investors prioritize investing in stocks for long-term growth and stability while allocating a smaller portion for speculative opportunities.
Ultimately, investors tend to have a more relaxed approach as they carefully choose stocks for their portfolio and patiently wait for their investments to appreciate over time. This approach allows investors to focus on their other commitments while still profiting from capital appreciation. Warren Buffett, a renowned investor, exemplifies this strategy by building portfolios of reliable companies that consistently share profits with shareholders. Investing is a continual learning process, and success depends on the investor's knowledge, experience, and ability to adapt to market conditions. So, the best approach boils down to aligning your trading style with your financial goals and risk tolerance.
In the dynamic world of financial markets, the choice between investing and speculating is deeply personal, guided by individual goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. Investors embrace a patient, long-term strategy, seeking gradual growth and sustained profits through careful analysis and informed decisions. On the other hand, speculators chase short-term gains, leveraging market volatility to capitalize on rapid price swings. While a combination of both approaches is possible, it demands expertise, time, and experience.
It is crucial to recognize that speculation involves higher risks, making it essential for traders to approach it with caution and a deep understanding of market dynamics. For most investors, allocating a smaller portion of funds to speculative opportunities while predominantly focusing on long-term stock investments offers a balanced approach.
In the end, regardless of the chosen path, success in financial markets requires a thoughtful and disciplined approach. Armed with knowledge, experience, and a clear strategy, traders can navigate the complexities of the market and work towards achieving long-term financial prosperity.
Is Trading Like Playing Poker? Is trading a form of gambling?
With hesitance, I would say yes.
However, I would rather call trading a form of strategic gambling as both require elements of risk, reward, strategy and decision making.
In the next two weeks or so, I’m planning to publish a new online FREE book called “Poker Vs Trading”.
Who knows, by the end of it all you may take up professional poker playing as well as trading…
Let’s start with the similarities.
SIMILARITY #1:
We can choose when to play (Strategy)
Traders and poker players don’t play every hand that is dealt to them.
With poker, when a hand is dealt, we can choose to either play the hand, based on how strong it is, or we can choose to fold and wait for the next hand…
With trading, we wait for a trading setup based on the criteria of our strategy i.e. MATI Trader System.
You’ll then have the exact criteria and money management rules to follow in order to take a trade or wait for the next trade.
SIMILARITY #2:
Amateur poker players and traders tend to go the ‘tilt’ (Emotional roller-coaster)
Emotions are a main driver which leads to traders losing their cash in their account or poker players losing their chips very quickly.
With poker, you get players who let their emotions take over where they start betting high with an irrational frame of mind.
These emotions lead them to losing their chips very quickly.
This is when they enter the state of what is called ‘going the tilt’.
With trading, amateur traders also tend to act on impulse and play on gut, instinct, fear and greed after they’ve undergone a losing streak or a winning streak.
This often leads them to:
~ Taking a series of losses.
~ Losing huge portions of their portfolio.
~ Holding onto losing trades longer than they should.
~ Entering a mindset of revenge trading.
SIMILARITY #3:
We know when to hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em (Cut losses quick)
We have the choice to reduce our losses when it comes to betting a hand or taking a trade.
With poker, if the players start upping the stakes and you believe you have a weaker hand in the round, you can choose to ‘fold’ and lose only the cost of playing the ‘ante’.
With trading, if you’ve taken a trade and it turns against you, you have a stop loss which will get you out at the amount of money you were willing to risk of your portfolio…
SIMILARITY #4:
We know the rake (Costs involved)
There are always costs associated with each trade we take or each hand we play, which eats into our winnings.
With poker, it’s the portion of the pot that is taken by the house i.e. the blinds and the antes. With trading, it’s the fees charged by your broker or market maker, in order to take your trade. These fees can be either the tax, spread and/or the brokerage.
SIMILARITY #5:
Aggressive trading and betting before the flop (High volatility)
There will always be a time of strong market moves and high betting.
With poker, you get times where players like to bet aggressively and blindly before the flop is revealed. It’s these times that lead to the amateur poker players losing their chips very quickly.
With trading, you get economic data i.e. Non-Farm-Payrolls, black swan events and Interest Rate decisions when big investors and traders like to drive the market up or down before the news even comes out.
NOTE: I ignore both forms of hype as it is can lead to a catastrophic situation.
SIMILARITY #6:
We bet and trade based on the unknown
Every bet and trade we take and play is based on incomplete information of the future.
With poker, we are dealt hands then bet on decisions based on not knowing what cards our opponents have and/or what is shown on the river.
We then have the options to call, bet, raise or fold during the process.With trading, we take trades based on probability predictions without knowing where the price will end up at.
This is due to new information which comes into the market including (demand, supply, news, economic indicators, micro and macro aspects).
SIMILARITY #7:
We lose A LOT! (Losses are inevitable)
Taking small losses are part of the game with both poker and trading.
With poker, it is important to wait patiently until you have a hand with a high probability of success.
Some of the best poker players in the world, fold 90% of the starting hands, they receive. Some professional poker players can go through weeks and months without a win.
With trading, we can lose over 40% to 50% of the time.
In general, I expect around two losing quarters a year. I know that when there are better market conditions, it will make up for the small losses.
SIMILARITY #8:
You must learn to earn (Education is vital)
You need to understand and gain as much knowledge as you can about poker and trading before you commit any money.
With poker, you need to understand:
• The rules of the game.
• The risk per move.
• The amount of money you should play per hand.
Once you know these points, you’ll be able to develop some kind of game plan with each hand you play.
With trading, you need to understand:
• The MARKET (What, why, where are how?)NB*
• The METHOD (What system to follow before taking a trade).
• The MONEY (Risk management rules to follow with each trade)
• The MIND (The frame of mind you must develop to succeed)
SIMILARITY #9:
Perseverance is the key ingredient to success
You need to take the time and have the determination to become a successful trader and poker player.
With poker, you’ll need to keep at it and apply strict money management rules with each hand played. With trading, you’ll need to know your trading personality, know which trading method best works you and understand your risk profile…
I’ll leave you with a quote from Vince Lombardi (American football player, coach, and executive):
“Practice does not make perfect. Only perfect practice makes perfect”
Do you think trading is like poker?
If you enjoyed this daily lesson follow fore more!
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
INVESTING VS TRADING VS GAMBLING | Know the Difference
Hey traders,
In this post, we will compare investing and trading with gambling.
📈Investing
Investing is the act of putting money in a financial market with the expectations of a long-term positive return.
The investing decisions are usually made using fundamental analysis.
The main goal of an investor is to predict the long-term market trends and benefit on them.
Professional investing also involves assets allocation and diversification aimed to hedge potential risks.
💱Trading
Trading is the process of selling and buying financial instruments expecting a short-term (occasionally, mid-term) profit.
The trading decisions are usually based on technical and fundamentals analysis.
The goal of a trader is to predict local price fluctuations and catch them.
Professional trading implies strict, rule-based actions following a trading plan.
🎰Gambling
Gambling is the act of betting on a specific event with the expectations of winning some value.
Being completely luck-based, gambling usually involves get rich quick schemes and pursuit of easy money.
What differs professional trading and investing from gambling is the fact that professional trading / investing involves objective analysis and strict planning, while gambling remains purely intuition based.
Unfortunately, most of the market participants pretend that they trade and invest professionally while acting as gamblers in fact.
Remember that long-term, consistent profits can be achieved only with the plan. Your intuition may bring some short-term profits, but in a long-run it will most likely lead you to a bankruptcy.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
ARE YOU A GAMBLER OR ARE YOU A TRADER?Hello everyone
Today we will touch on a serious topic, at the end of which you will be able to determine who you are in the market.
Let's go!
Two types of people
There are a large number of people in the forex market and they are all different.
But, even considering the diversity, there are still common features by which people can be divided.
Some come with a desire to earn quickly, while spending not much time and effort.
Others come to the market as a job.
The first are simple players, mostly they lose money and eventually leave with nothing.
The second are professionals. They know how to trade, they follow the rules and their discipline is at the highest level.
How to determine which group you belong to?
There are a couple of factors that distinguish an ordinary player from a real trader:
1. Risk management. The player, as a rule, does not follow the rules of risk management. The player's risk is equal to his capital. That is why players lose all their capital.
Real traders rarely risk more than 1% of the capital. Such traders follow the rules of risk management in EACH position. Therefore, they never lose all their capital.
2. Trading plan. Players have not tested strategies and rarely study them to the end. They superficially learn new trading methods and run to the market to use them and therefore lose everything. Professionals know everything about their strategy, when to open, when to close, why and how much. A professional will have an answer to all questions and will have a plan.
3. Emotions and money. Do you trade for emotions? Do you like roller coasters at the market? If the answer is yes, then you are a player. Players come to the market to experience the full range of emotions and the market gives them this, but takes money in return. Professionals do not experience emotions, they are here to earn a living. Chasing emotions is not for them.
4. What do you want or what do you see? The player trades what he wants from the market. A player may see something on the street or some news and now he wants to open long positions without paying attention to the context of the market. A professional is not set up to trade long or short, he is set up to trade what the market is trying to show. If the market shows signs of growth, a professional will open long and vice versa. There are no desires here, there is only a plan, strategy and discipline.
Conclusion
Everyone should answer these questions to understand who they are in the market.
Having defined yourself, you will be able to improve yourself, admitting mistakes is already half the case.
This article also indicates the further path that will help you from an ordinary player to become a professional trader.
Good luck!
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
90% of active investors lose money. The stats behind this numberThere is no secret. Most traders lose and we know exactly why. They ignore all advice and persist. So they deserve to lose.
The AMF (the french "regulator", not sure what they are exactly), they looked at FX & CFD brokers responsible for half the volume of active investors, between 2009 and 2012.
According to them:
- In any year 84% of active clients lost money (83.8 - 84.2)
- Over 4 years 89.4% clients lost money
- Of those that traded for the whole 4 years, 87.56% lost money
- The average loss per tx was around 25 euros, with the average tx size at least 50,000 euros (loss <= 0.05%...)
www.amf-france.org
The Polish regulator found similar results with 82% of losing clients in 2011. Brokers now publish their clients results and in any quarter the percentage of losers is around 75%, there is a famous broker with "only" 60-65% losers but its clients famously copy LONG-TERM stock portfolios. Less day traders = Less losers.
The Bank of Japan has a report available: In 2015, based on the transaction data of FX firms which are the members of the Financial Futures Association of Japan, and excluding positions carried over more than 1 month, 86.1% of accounts are "intraday" .
www.boj.or.jp
You have to take that into account!
Remove the day gamblers and the stats shoot up.
Remove the bagholders going all in dreaming of 100X and the stats go even higher.
Broker FXCM published its own interesting article. They looked at their clients over a year in 2014-2015.
Among the interesting things we can get out of it:
- 53% of clients with a reward to risk equal or greater than 1:1 had profits
- 17% of clients with a reward smaller than the risk (< 1:1) turned a profit
- 40% of clients with a leverage equal or lower than 5 were profitable
- 17% of clients with a leverage equal or higher than 25 were profitable
- Their clients average winners and losers were around 2/3 the daily ATR
- The worst performances were made on the easiest most obvious trending pairs!
www.fxcm.com
I bet if you backtested a mindless trend following system with just a few conditions, and with a risk to reward of 1 to 3 or better it would end up green. Because markets trend. Literally just pick any 3 or more (daily) green candles and see, when it is followed by a red candle, how often that is a small pullback and how often it's not. And code a 3 to 1 RR, can't be that hard. Over 20 years it's sure to be green. Very volatile, but green. To deal with the volatility that's where some diversification comes in. If over 3 months you took 20 trades, 17 losers, and one 3R + one 11R + one 7R your history is all red you eat losers all the time but you still are up 4R.
Markets simply trend. That's the way it is. The whole idea is to catch trends. Warren Buffett buys fairly valued or even cheap stocks hoping they will trend (for years). Georges Soros sells the British Pound in a range hoping the peg will break and the GBP will trend (for weeks) or he's selling the Yen and buying the Nikkei when it's ranging around its lows and not popular anymore hoping it will wake up and trend (for months or years). There is nothing more to it. We investors, regardless of asset or time horizon, are all trying to catch these trends. And hedgers that are forced to have an exposure as to per their business activities are trying to dodge those trends, by taking an opposite position to "cancel" their exposure.
Brokers and "social sites" show their users aggregate positions and it's always the same story:
Day Trading and Insisting on Being on the Wrong Side of the Trend. That's it.
Forex retail traders in a nutshell99% of retail FX traders are scalpers or day gamblers or "swing" traders.
According to a paper on the BOJ website I'll link below, in 2015 a mindblowing 57% of retail clients were "scalpers".
86% were either scalpers (0 to 1 hour) or day gamblers (1 hour to 1 day).
They excluded those with positions held over 1 month, 1 week to 1 month was only about 5%, much much smaller than all the day gambling.
"Share of accounts by investment time horizon"
So it's not 86% of trades it's really 86% of accounts. For something very niche that no one does.
www.boj.or.jp
Can't blame the FX brokers for giving their clients, which are nearly all gamblers, what they want.
These gamblers looking for excitation and with get rich quick dreams. Success rate of 0% not even 1% not sure what's going on up there.
They're not even meant for this business at all.
Becoming a trader when you have risk & loss aversion facepalm. "It's ok I can work on my flaws and improve"
It is like if being an exterminator would pay a whole lot and so people with a phobia, terrified of rats would start getting into the business "Yes I'm scared to death of rats but I can make it work, for the money do not try to demoralize me". Or snakes & spiders maybe that's a better example, more people scared of wittle spiders.
Clearly ridiculous. "My whole lower body is paralysed but that won't stop me from running a marathon (on my hands?) and winning!".
Since Europe banned binary options (gosh what a scam), which was at least forcing day gamblers to have fixed losses, and with the exception of a few turbos, day gamblers really have their work cut out for them: At least with online casinos they have a fixed loss. Bet 1 coin lose 1 and that's it.
But when they day gamble Forex there is not "hard loss" so they can keep letting the loss get bigger and bigger (due to loss aversion).
Some regulators want to fight retail trading, and keep spreading FUD about it "99% lose".
What do you expect? Doesn't mean it's soooo hard, 99% lose but do not forget 99% are drunk gamblers!
Forex especially since the late 2000s and even more since 2013-2015 has very little trends, not much volatility, and not that much returns to offer, so it gets a more and more negative image but FX traders are allowed to look elsewhere when nothing happens.
Maybe really dumb regulators are going to ban it the moment it turns and becomes very profitable again.
They have all these mental flaws:
- Risk Aversion
- Loss Aversion
- Caring what others do and think
- Casino mentality
- Emotional behavior in general (FOMO, regret, confirmation bias, denial, etc many more)
About the casino mentality here are 2 articles about a recent comment by Charlie Munger:
www.nasdaq.com
www.investopedia.com
These day gamblers, at least they should pick the correct tools where they might have a chance.
The best one has to be the DAX (the Dow Jones might come close too):
Pros:
- Very small costs (house edge is the smallest)
- Lots of activity while it is open for 8 hours
- I think about 1/5 days are good trend days
- 90% of days have the top or bottom of the day in the first 90 minutes I think, or something like that
- There are other cool stats but I don't really remember
- AND many other day gamblers also bet on it! The money gamblers hope to win has to come from somewhere, well here it comes from other day gamblers.
So I'm guessing all the day gamblers just do the same thing? Buy the trend when there may be one, and what separates the winners from the losers is the ones with the biggest... personalities hold their winners and have what it takes to exit losers fast... And that's it... Zero intelligence...
I do not know or understand what gets the vast majority into this whole super short term game, broker propaganda? That's just how gambling mentality works?
99% can't just all be gamblers? Did people lie to them and tell them this is how you are supposed to trade? Why did I never hear about this lie myself?
Does it come from what they saw in some movies and tv? (I never watch tv).
Today's Lesson (#4) : Adjusting the leverage to volatilityIn this educational content video I had to cover one the biggest noob trader mistake, trading with too much leverage.
That's basically what flushes out almost 80% of the noobs. Getting the margin call, putting more money into trading than you initially expexted.
All of this is well known as gambling problems. And the recent flow of beginners who went to the markets with hopes of easy gains, most are now feeling the painful experiment of what the market is doing to fools.
So I hope you'll learn something important today with that lesson. Cause if you don't, then you'll probably have to learn it the hard ways later...
POLITRICKS: Avoid it in your tradingI briefly mention the political situation in the world that affecting many stock markets.
I'm seeing wide swings on a daily time frame, whenever their is good or bad news.
Traders would be wise to avoid gambling in these sorts of volatile markets. Those with large accounts can of course take a position and ride out the volatility in following a trend.
Burning your account in volatile lower time frames?In this very first video I'm posting, I look at the 30 min time frame where some day traders tend to trade. I show 6 charts with high volatility and lots of spiking all over the place.
Yes there may be some visible and tradable pattern in these on careful analysis. However, the degree of volatility seen over the last two months may not 'respect' traditional forms of technical analysis - as they may have in the previous 6 months.
It is my observation that the last two months have shown more volatility across many forex pairs and indices. Those that were already prone to much volatility are even more volatile.
I don't mean to tell traders what to do or not do. I'm only thinking that new traders especially, with smaller account sizes may be more cautious so as not to burn their accounts. Avoid gambling.
Are you trading or gambling?Tradingview has opened up a brilliant section on ' Beyond Technical Analysis ', where there is much room for development.
I have a very big interest in trading psychology as I've come to realise that success in trading is determined by roughly 80% psychological self-management (and its many components). I've been exploring this topic elsewhere (link later). But for now let's just think about some of this stuff. At the outset I wish to say that I claim no 'guru' status. I do not do trainings or tips. I never - will never - offer anything to others for my personal financial gain.
An exploration of the similarities and differences between trading and gambling is very important. Many a new trader will not realise that they could be gambling instead of trading. I see the two as different, though I am aware that a majority of people may see them as one and the same.
This topic is of the utmost importance. You're in a game where the odds are naturally stacked against you . The markets of any type are chaotic environments that present patterns of various kinds which may be better seen by tools in technical analysis. A new trader could learn the mountain of tricks in technical analysis and still fail miserably. How? Because individual psychology is the big issue. Mark Douglas's book Trading in the Zone is for me the ultimate Bible about Trading Psychology and more. I say no trader should be trading at all if they haven't read it.
How does gambling come into this? Well, the human being is naturally driven by reward. A few big wins in a trading environment is highly rewarding. This can lure new traders especially, into taking more and more (or greater) chances or risks without the structure of a working trading strategy that is tried and tested. This is the same scenario essentially with people who visit casinos . In essence the punter knows in his own mind that doubling his bets and holding out is likely to bring a big win or win back losses. Reality is a different thing, and it is often times painful for those who engage in that sort of activity.
Taking chances or risks is not gambling. Seasoned traders will know that one has to be prepared to lose, in taking a risk or a chance. We all take risks from time to time in crossing a busy street but we are normally aware of what factors we need to control.
Controlling the size of a loss in trading is the very difficult issue that is affected by 'individual psychology'. How do we really know how to control the chance and risk in those scenarios? There are approximately 300 biases that affect the human mind, and another 300 or so logical errors in the mind - the majority of those control our logic quite imperceptibly. The permutations of the latter are extremely large numbers. Add emotional factors to the equation and some will better appreciate how decision-making on risk can be affected. Reward drives emotions and emotions influence thinking (decision-making).
Gambling is an activity which I see as (normally) driven mostly by emotions. For example that hunch that 'you're gonna win' the next time around. There are so-called 'expert gamblers' who make millions at casinos. These are exceptional people - but they weren't born that way. When you look at what they do, they aren't gambling even when they are in the casino (a place that is defined for gambling). They have a system, a process, they avoid emotional influences and they are highly controlled in their responses . Many of them are not even concerned with winning or their losses. This is much the same sort of mindset I pick up from a few truly successful traders. This is what true traders must achieve to avoid gambling.
Supplemental: What is gambling? - Managers of chaos - Luck & chance
If you are continuously loosing money ,read and apply this......PART 1
Are you tired and exhausted of finding a strategy that works, are you tired of predicting forex markets only to find out sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.
First of all, you have to see what are your beliefs and you need to verify if you have right beliefs. Many traders think that forex trading is not gambling and to make money from forex you just need a golden strategy that works. I can write thousands of words on how beliefs always defend itself from discomforting knowledge and people with such wrong believes end up giving their money to markets.
In simple words:
TRADING IS GAMBLING
If trading is gambling then how to make money out of it? There are many people who make consistent profit from the market. { including me :) }.
TREAT FOREX LIKE CASINO TREAT THIER GAMBLERS
Forex trading is a probability game. Corporations spend vast amounts of money, in the hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars, on elaborate hotels to attract people to their casinos. How do you suppose they justify spending vast sums of money on elaborate hotels and casinos, whose primary function is to generate revenue from an event that has a purely random outcome?
Here’s an interesting paradox. Casinos make consistent profits day after day and year after year, facilitating an event that has a purely random outcome. At the same time, most traders believe that the outcome of the market’s behavior is not random, yet can’t seem to produce consistent profits. Shouldn’t a consistent, non-random outcome produce consistent results and a random outcome produce random, inconsistent results?
What casino owners, experienced gamblers, and the best traders understand that the typical trader finds difficult to grasp is: Events that have probable outcomes can produce consistent results, if you can get the odds in your favor and there is a large enough sample size. The best traders treat trading like a numbers game, similar to the way in which casinos and professional gamblers approach gambling.
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Patterns, Fibonacci, indicators, support and resistance lines etc don't work
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Before you start to think i am crazy, please continute reading.
I know many pattern traders, support and resistant traders and fibo traders on this websites. They hardly predict market 50% right. Some of them are around 50-60% range. I can toss a coin and can come up with a 40-60% winning rate. Therefore if your strategy works, then my coin strategy works as well.
Technical Strategies sometimes work and sometimes don't, just like a flipping a coin. If you have a strategy which won last 9 times, does it mean it will work 100% 10th time? No ! there's still a 50-50% chance, just if 9 coin flips showed heads last 9 times, doesn't mean 10th will also be a head.
5 rules to be a consistently successful trader over the long term:
>> ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN: There are always unknown forces operating in the market at every moment. Regardless of how much time, effort, the money you have to spend in your analysis, from the market perspective, the outcome will always be random.
>> YOU DON'T NEED TO KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT IN ORDER TO MAKE MONEY: why? because there is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variable that defines an edge. Just like a casino with random outcomes, you can make a consistent profit.
>> THERE IS A RANDOM DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN WINS AND LOOSES FOR ANY GIVEN SET OF VARIABLE THAT DEFINES AND EDGE: Every losing trade puts you one step closer to a winning trade because the outcomes of any edge are totally random. The same theory is applied by casinos if someone wins money casinos don't get scared as they knew over the long term they will win.
>> AN EDGE IS NOTHING MORE THAN INDICATION OF A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ONE THING HAPPENING OVER ANOTHER:
If you have a strategy which gives you higher probabilities .....( limited words)..