Forecast price of Gazprom based on dividend policy and CAPEXForecast price of Gazprom based on dividend policy and CAPEX
Gazprom
Why Gazprom Has Plenty of Fuel Left in the Tank.Gazprom has been undervalued for years, so why buy today? The price spike of 2019 shows a change of sentiment. Investors are now willing to dip their toes into Gazprom.
Statistically, stocks that are trading at 12-month highs, perform better in the long term than otherwise. So the 2019 price spike is actually another good reason to consider investing in Gazprom.
Looking back over the last 4 years, Gazprom failed to break above $5.3 (a technical “resistance” line). Making any buy above $5.3 a good entry point into Gazprom. That line was breached in 2019, and since then Gazprom rocketed up. Where is the next resistance? Potentially around $9.1 where historically there has been a lot of price action. It would not be surprising for Gazprom to range in this area for a time. Beyond that, the air is clear.
Arguably the most important thing to look at from a technical perspective is momentum. Momentum is the trend (up or down) of a stock’s price. Gazprom has been in a downward trend, below the 200 Day Moving Average (DMA), for most of the last decade. However, recent spike above the 200DMA has put Gazprom back into “buy” territory. This is a classic example of what Jim O’Shaughnessy would call: “a cheap stock on the mend”.
Cheap from its fundamental valuation, with price appreciation on the mend.
TURNING POINT IN INCREASE TREND OF GAZPROM NEFTTECHINCAL ANALYSIS OF MOEX:SIBN
What do we have?
1. From July 2017 to October 2018, share prices of MOEX:SIBN increased by more than 115%.
2. MACD is below 0, which indicates a decreasing trend.
3. The DM shows the beginning of the suppression of the negative trend of the extreme line from the bottom up, which also indicates the beginning of the declining trend.
4. ATR indicator, which is formulated as follows: the higher the value of the indicator, the higher the probability of a trend change; the lower its value, the weaker the trend direction. In this case, the indicator is located at the highest levels at the top (12.4) and indicates the damping of the uptrend. The last time this value was in February 2015 and after that the price rolled back by more than 40%.
5. The ADX indicator is in a low value, which shows a trend towards a reversal or correction of the market.
Conclusion.
Most likely, prices will decline to a minimum of 317 rubles, which corresponds to 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement from the current growth. The confirmation of this prediction will be a breakout of the current price of the triangle down below the 360 RUB.
Trading recommendation:
Open short position when reaching the level of 359.8 rubles, take profit at the level of 317 rubles (11.3% profit). Stop loss-the middle of the triangle 377 rubles. (4.45% loss)
Alternative scenario:
If the price overcomes the previous maximum of 404 rubles. it makes sense to open the long up to 485 rubles. (which corresponds to 361.8 Fibo expansion).
GAZPROM steps on the gasThis a clear buy for me.
It quickly went to the .618 of the last up trend, which was at the same level than the MA200.
AND BOUNCED.
Also look at the volume on bullish vs bearish days.
Buy buy buy.
GAZP gap closing ideaGAZP dividend gap opened again
As you can see in past the gap is always closed
So,
BUY in dotted red line
SELL when gap is closed
GAZPROM - long term scenariowww.tradingview.com
Allthough volume is not confirming this it looks good to me from a pattern perspective.
Since we are in a downtrend we usually start counting from the low, which does not mean that we cannot use the prior high to gage where the upper line of our triangle will be!
Many might argue that it doesn't even help to consider such long term scenarios at a stage where you are a lot more likely to be wrong than right. However, even though it is true that these scenarios are not that likely to play out if you present them at an early stage, being aware of them is a way to be ahead of everyone else! By having these in your mind you are able to eliminate some quite early and deduce what the more probable ones are a lot sooner than others, thus giving you time to prepare!
I hope this was helpful to you! Take care!
GAZPROM - idea for septemberIs there a reason to buy this now? I dont see any. Isnt it too late to sell it? I think so. It stays at important level. Need to see how the price action here.
Fundamentally Mispriced Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) – PreliminaryCaution: Preliminary Research – not an investment advice
What yesterday looked like a good long, today looks like even better one after the security took a 5% hit today.
What we're looking at: Gazprom mispriced at the fundamental level, giving a chance to almost double – according to the research, one could anticipate an appreciation of anywhere between 82 and 106 per cent. The implied target price range is between RUB 230.51 and RUB 260.73.
Investment horizon: months
Distressed: no
Alternative strategy:
Buy September's call option on Gazprom futures at 20000 (I'd go for more, but there aren't any), if you can find a counterparty.
Wish you x's, fam
MACRO VIEW: GAZPROM MEAN REVERTION TRADINGSince about 2013 Gazprom trades laterally in relation to 1-year mean, giving abundant opportunity to take mean revertion trades.
Mean revertion trade is when price goes from either 1st standard deviation from the mean to the mean itself
On the chart I have pointed out such opportunities in the past (blue arrow is approximate entry towards the mean, highlighted in red)
Currently Gazprom sits at the 1-year mean - so traders can pick a mean revertion next time it trades to either higher or lower 1st standard deviation!
