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Silver - Short Below Key Resistance We hold a short view on Silver whilst it remains below key resistance at $22.2 despite it's rebound today. The precious metal has been in a downtrend since mid June as the FED indicated a more hawkish stance on monetary policy causing the US dollar to strengthen. Additionally, yields have been rising with the 10 year treasury note yield rising from 1.3% to 1.5% over the past week putting further pressure on Silver prices. We await US GDP growth rate, jobless claims and GDP price index releases this afternoon for any significant price action.
FX_IDC:XAGUSDShort
by KQMarkets
usdcad analysisIn the short term, there is an uptrend that is resisting at 1.27. In the 1 hour time frame, there is a downward trend that started on September 20 and this trend continues due to the formation of successive H and L. The downtrend will continue unless the price can cross the resistance level of 1.273. Data on Canada's PMI and GDP will be released on Friday. This data is very important for the currency pair because it can have a direct impact on the value of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar. In a period of 15 minutes, a triangular pattern is seen However, in the downtrend, the price is likely to continue to the main level of 1.26 and then 1.258. The stop loss in these transactions will be more than 1.273
Short
by mohamadrezaKhorsand
Pound pushes above 1.38, GDP nextThe British pound has punched above the 1.38 level in the Thursday session. GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.3858, up 0.63% on the day. After posting three straight days of losses, the British pound has rebounded strongly on Thursday. The US dollar is in retreat against the majors, despite a positive unemployment claims release earlier in the day. Claims fell to 310 thousand, down from 345 thousand a week earlier. We'll get another look at US inflation data on Friday, with the release of PPI for August expected to indicate that inflation remains red-hot. The consensus stands at 6.5% (YoY) compared to 6.2% in July. The Federal Reserve continues to insist that the surge in inflation is transitory and has been reluctant to respond with a tightening of policy, fearing that the time is not ripe for a scaling back of QE. Still, more investors are sure to join the skeptics if inflation continues to remain at high levels in the final months of 2021. In the UK, the markets will be treated to a data dump on Friday. The key events are GDP and Manufacturing Production. With the Delta variant of Covid continuing to hurt economic growth, July GDP is expected somewhere around zero, which could mean a small decline. Manufacturing Production is also expected to be sluggish with a forecast of 0.1% (MoM). We could see some strong movement from the pound, depending on the performance of these two releases. There is resistance at 1.3924. Above, there is resistance at 1.3988, just below the symbolic line of 1.40. On the downside, we have support at 1.3763 and 1.3666
by OANDA
SP500: Grind and FizzlesWhilst one of my trading systems (as displayed) doesn't yet display Exit-Long signals, I have been pre-empting some expected volatility which I perceive can arise due to what can be an lengthy infrastructure Bill process along with the Debt Ceiling fiasco. I detailed this in an earlier post. Up to this point I have been happy to ignore exit signals based on perceptions of market risk and fiscal support - noting the SP500 index in this model, is assumed to represent a US GDP growth function along with an 'off-risk' overlay. Where I have low market risk, clear fiscal support (infrastructure bill is committed to), Covid-19 strains (delta strain) understood and the ridiculous debt ceiling overcome, I will assess if it is appropriate to be Long or Longer the broad US market. I expect the market to pull-back, and will assess being long on limits at lower prices. #adam-cox
AMEX:SPY
by Adam-Cox
Hourly Analysis for the GBPUSDThe GDP/USD pair is showing a bearish trend which is likely a correction wave of the steep upward trend. there according to mu analysis if the on Monday it forms a bullish that breaks the highs of the previous candles, i will buy putting my stop loss on the white line, Or if it breaks the trendline and support yellow line with a candle lower high than that of the previous candle i will sell with my stop loss on the white line and take profit on the demand zone done.
by kabugoblasiom
Market Outlook WeeklyTVC:SPX using a log chart I channeled the market since it's inception. The top of the channel (in red) is exclusively where the major stock market crashes have happened. The bottom channel (in green) is "crash free." The bold purple line is where 3 of last 4 market crashes have happened. Since the "Nixon Shock," $spx has failed to breach this line, except during the "dot-com bubble." U.S. inflation rates are rising, the Buffet Indicator (divide by US GDP on the chart) is at an all time high, and the CAPE (SPX ECY on chart) is starting to. rise, like it has at the top of every crash. However, a major crash has not when CAPE is above that black line, excluding COVID. Note: Not claiming a crash now, just saying there are some warning signals and to be cautious.
TVC:SPX
by StkMktBulldog
Gold - Long Post FEDGold has continued it's upward momentum and consolidated above resistance at $1821 after yesterday's FED meeting. Powell gave no indication on when the FED would start tapering or to what extent as despite progress with regards to employment and inflation goals it was suggested that additional improvements would be required. This led to Gold surging and we believe the precious metal could move higher and reach multi month highs about $1900 in the coming weeks. Today GDP growth rate came in at 6.5% vs 8.5% forecast and initial jobless claims cam in at 400K vs 380K forecast. Additionally, tomorrow we await PCE price index and Michigan consumer sentiment for any significant price action.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by KQMarkets
How the west economy is reliant on modern atlantic slave tradeIf Hitler started an NGO to give money to poor Palestinians he'd have exterminated the jews with western donations. If you take a 10 year old kid the cost for the west to produce a wageslave will be higher, maybe 40k, but it's still money saved, and they can start the brainwashing younger. The west is losing their grip on Africa, things will change. Migrants will stop coming and even leave and this will happen before the end of the century: - Cheap healthcare personel will not exist anymore - Sexual exploitation of poor women by boomers will end - Nationalists will let it happen with a smile of relief - The economies will tank, the standard of living will be below east europe (already almost there) - Ethnic tensions will go up in the west like Yugoslavia - You will kneel and kiss our feet, and we will enslave you - I will point and laugh and say "told you so" I think part of it is the french want revenge for getting enslaved for centuries by pirates and sahelian tribes. Don't you worry, will all the harm you have done soon things will go back to normal "just comply and you will gain your freedom soon enough". Libya same story. The country societal pillars were destroyed by the west commies with their childish utopias. And the council of tribes said Gaddafi son was the only one they'd let represent them. Tripoli is in the hands of militias of slavers, well done democracy. Once the west falls, and it will snowball as migrants will stop coming and even leave, Africa will finally be able to get rid of this "democracy" (even the USA doesn't have a direct democracy, why doesn't west Europe try to bring their utopia there?), and go back to solid traditional societal pillars. The tribes will manage to agree and work together. The danger is to overdo it, to become too traditional. Under Ghadaffi Libya was very developed, the before after pictures are insane. The Emirate Arab United managed to united, I do not know this place well and I know they are 10 times more indian workers than arabs but at least they worked together and got very developed and rich. It's beyond belief how gullible and stupid and submissive westerners are, I do not wish to ever argue with them, they will be the slaves of the arabo-berber tribes because that's all they are good for. With the exception of Anglo-Saxons and Vikings as covid has proven. The stereotype was true who would have thought? "Oh noes so much war and misery in Africa" gee yes I wonder why, and it always happens after you help them damn how come? Must be 5000 coïncidences by now. Lmao the black arab-berber Toubou tribe of south Libya has 33% R1b dna markers, this is the gene from west Europe, how did it end up there? XD Slaves from the coast south of France is my guess. It's ok to mix with them because it is the same race. And they can select the ones they want to keep in their gene pool. 400 AD south of Roman Gaul: "These puny barbarians can't touch us we are advanced" 500 AD south of Roman Gaul: Frankish rulers overhear the gaul nobles they just shaved say it was "humiliating", for daring to say such a thing they are put to death :) When pirates captured Julius Caesar he told them "I will come back, I will find you, and then I will execute you" They laughed And then he came back :) Here is a printable version:
FRED:GDP
by MrRenev
1
XAUUSD 1H Huge Volatile OpeningsMorning guys, XAUUSD has been consolidating around since the metal dropped on the 17th of June to around 1770 with lows of 1760. The metals bearish outlook stabilised since then and we've been patiently waiting for the bulls to push 1800. Whilst we've been waiting, opportunities to ride the consolidation up and down have opened and these have been pretty solid as we expect XAUUSD to bounce between consolidation support and resistance lines. The following graph shows how we can take advantage of this today at the start of the European session and heading into the American session whilst also gearing up for the Initial jobless claims 4 week average and the GDP annualised. Dependant on the outlook of those reports we could see gold take a dip as I expect the IJC to look promising, this would only create a great buying opportunity and we can expect the GDP annualised to look poor due to obvious reasons. This should just remind all the bears out there that we're still reeling from all the financial shockwaves of the pandemic and huge government spending. Again, inflation is surging and by no means is the USD out of the woods. In the attempt to keep this one short and sweet, technically, we can see XAUUSD rising to the previous resistance of 1795 with the hope of bounding further on to the famed psychological level of 1800, couple this with the reports released today and we can see volatility playing a major factor towards 1820 and beyond although this remains unlikely. The support at 1795 will look reasonable strong and i feel if we break that we'll definitely push onto 1800. Risk management has me being cautious of the 1760 mark as if gold hits that I feel will continue to fall as the bears rally and USD bulls push on the move of the reports. Have a great day guys!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by KaineArkinson1
The US & EU terrible demographics: What to expect and solutions.Japan, which today is the oldest country in the world, had a weird looking demographic "pyramid" 30 years ago, with a big bump in the 40s, there were 75% more japanese in their forties than 0-9 years old. What could possibly go wrong? Japan was the new superpower, everyone invested in Japan. And then it all collapsed. As usual it got so bad they actually ended up undervalued, and George Soros invested in the Nikkei before the rally a decade ago, probably using his large Forex knowledge to time the stock market. And yes he also bet on the Yen at that time and it worked very well. So what happened the the Japanese economy? In the late 80s the japanese economy surpassed the Soviet Union! That was mind blowing to everybody. And in 1995 it grew to the size of Germany + France + UK. In 1995, after the stock market - which was in a gigantic bubble - crash, it was 5,500 billion usd big. The stock market crash is not what ended the Japanese economy! At the time the USA were 7,600 big, so the little island was ~75% the size of the US! They were so advanced, people thought they'd conquer the world with giant robots. They were really ahead of everybody. And then the japanese started to retire, and as they aged demanded more and more support from the youth, more healthcare... tradingeconomics.com Germany and the UK have grown their economies, the UK even got ahead of France which I'm sure has nothing to do with anti-business laws. And Italy has already collapsed (since 2008), their brilliant solution was socialism, the downtrend will last a long while. But the big most noticeable ones are the Americans. Now the USA economy is two and a half times bigger than Germany + France + UK! How could a bunch of rednecks that love to fire guns in the air and mentally unstable drug addicts get this big? Their population has grown unlike the west europeans, but not that much. And they're hitting the wall NOW. A major explanation is their economy got way overheated (which had the secondary effect of creating lots of entitled recently born americans), in part because they attract the smartest migrants and all the foreign investments. NO you can't make people work till they are 80. Past 50 like it or not it's all downhill from here. Here is the productivity chart: Migrants: This is something that Japan has not done. They did not take migrants in, and they also did not (net) import goods to "buy time". West Europe and the United States have bet everything on importing migrants; which seems it might be a very profitable strategy: 0 cost to breed and raise workers, Africa for example has the charge of raising them, and Europe gets them entirely free once they reach working age. The US Department of Agriculture reported that the cost to raise a child born in 2015 to 17 years old would be an estimated $233,610. 10 million migrants = 2,330 billion us dollar saved. And if they are qualified and 25 years you save university and the first years of gaining experience costs. The EU had talks of importing 50 million migrants. At a cost of $200,000 per unit, since these are considered exchangeable pawns the word unit is adequate, that would be $10,000 billion saved! The foreign aid Africa has received for the past 70 years is estimated at around $1,400 billion. Muslim countries that provide many cheap workers obviously do not get anywhere near that amount. And I cannot tell how much money the west spends in anti-African propaganda - working on that negative "poor and violent Africa with no hope" image to push young africans to want to migrate to the west, also know as the second welfare objective (to keep them down and dependant rather than force them to build their own economies), the first one being obvious: "Keep dem kids alive and keep breeding, we want our workers!". The problem is... It is not working perfectly... You see, life is not a video game, and people are not interchangeable pawns. I'm not saying it doesn't or can't work I am just saying it is not working PERFECTLY. The west is facing more and more diversity issues just like Africa and Israel. And this everyone agrees on regardless of their politics, those on the left say it is because of systemic racism, and the other side say it's because people are different I guess. Just as long as we can all agree. Racism or not if you look at Yugoslavia they were the same race, culture, economy, history, and they still killed each other. It is a difficult subject to write about since for some people if you do not say everything will work out great you are automatically an enemy. So how do you even talk about it? You can't. Publicly. Just have to play dumb and act surprised. Ye well I might have to pretend to be stupid but my money won't be acting surprised that I can tell you. I am obviously not going to develop the subject. It may or may not be a viable solution, either was there are obstacles. On the other side of the flying pancake on a giant turtle's back China is facing the same issue. The CCP was surprised to learn the awful demographic numbers a few weeks ago, and started a new 3 child policy as well as fighting feminists. How could they possibly create a 1 child policy and never manage it? Seems unreal. But anyway, now they got a disgusting demographic pyramid, and it will take at best 25 years to fix. China is not looking for migrants to support its aging population. So it would appear they are going to follow Japan? NOPE. See, China has something very special: The USA & West Europe owe China A LOT. Africa owes them too. The world owes them trillions. In theory they could just lay back, relax, and let the world work for them. In practice they might have to use their military to get what is rightfully theirs. But the USA, Germany etc have their own issues and can't really pay up... Will be a big big problem. I am not an expert, I invest in the short term in the currency markets, like every decent "specialist" I know and take an interest in about everything that gravitates around but is not exactly my activity, but I don't really get into it, I stay focus in my area. If you want to know more about the subject, some people of whow the job it is - doesn't necessarily mean they are good at it or know more than me, but they may, at least they have researched the subject extensively - write about the subject. There are articles, "official" reports on the subject, as well as books. An economist that was on the United Kingdom Monetary Policy Committee and an economist that was Managing Director at Morgan Stanley wrote a report available on the website of the Bank of International Settlement, and according to them big money does read what they publish: www.bis.org
Education
by MrRenev
4
Euro rises, German business confidence nextThe euro has started the week in positive territory. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2220, up 0.32%. Monday is a national holiday across much of Europe, and there are no economic releases out of the eurozone. Still, the euro is showing some strength and has punched into 1.22-territory. German data will be in focus on Tuesday. The well-respected Ifo Business Confidence Index will be released for May (8:00 GMT). The index has accelerated over three straight months, and the upswing is expected to continue. The May consensus stands at 98.2, compared to the previous release of 96.8. Despite the optimism in the business sector, the German economy is in trouble. In Q4, GDP contracted by 1.7% and an identical decline is expected for Q1 of 2o21 (6:00 GMT). Two consecutive declines would mean that technically the German economy is in recession. However, investors remain confident that Europe is turning the corner on the Covid-pandemic, so it's unlikely that the GDP report will weigh on the euro, unless GDP is much weaker than the forecast. The euro continues to trade at high levels and could head upwards, as expectations that the Fed might tighten monetary policy appear to be have been premature. Several Fed policymakers have urged the Fed to discuss tapering QE in the coming months, but the market appears to have internalized the Fed's message that inflation is transitory and that the US economy is still in need of massive stimulus. At the same time, if US numbers continue to point upwards, in particular inflation and employment numbers, then we again see speculation about tapering and a higher US dollar. In the meantime, the US dollar remains under pressure. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.2242. Above, there is resistance at 1.2303. On the downside, there is support at 1.2123, followed by 1.2065
by OANDA
Pound flat after GDP data, US CPI nextThe pound is showing limited movement in the Wednesday session. In European trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.4132, down 0.07%. On the fundamental front, US CPI is projected to come in at 3.6% year-on-year in April, up from 2.6% in March. If CPI outperforms, it could raise expectations that the Fed will move sooner to tighten policy. UK GDP numbers were a mixed bag, as the economy contracted in the first quarter of 2o21. At the same time, The monthly GDP outperformed. Analysts had expected the British economy to shrink in Q1, and this was the case, with a GDP read of -1.5%. This was slightly better than the forecast of -1.7%, but pointed to a bruising quarter, as the economy was hampered by lockdown restrictions and trade disruptions due to Brexit, such as the buildup of containers in British ports. The GDP report was also a "cup half full", as March GDP was stronger than expected, with a healthy gain of 2.1%. This easily beat the estimate of 1.3% and was well up from the February reading of 0.4%. The March expansion reflected businesses preparing for the first stage of the reopening of the economy, which occurred in early April. There was more positive news from the manufacturing front, as Manufacturing Production rose 2.1% in March, up from 1.3% and easily beating the forecast of 1.0%. The British economy is still some 8.7% smaller than prior to the Covid pandemic, but the March reading is an indication that the economy is headed in the right direction, and that bodes well for the British pound, which has been on an impressive streak. GPB/USD is up 1.13% this week and has soared in May, with gains of 2.34%. The pound avoided a potential pitfall early in the week, as the results of the Scottish election showed that the pro-independence SNP failed to garner a majority in parliament. This means that investors can count on political stability, and the pound responded with gains of close to one per cent on Monday. GBP/USD continues to test resistance at 1.4137, followed by resistance at 1.4269. There are support lines at 1.3859 and 1.3727.
by OANDA
Largest economies in the US and in EuropeI think every one should know what the 4 largest American states and 5 largest European ones are. After the Chicago state I really don't know what the other ones are and I do not think they carry the same weight as the biggest ones, I don't think it's that important to look at what's happening there. In Europe Spain has had huge unemployement and people living with their parents for decades, Italy is sort of on a path of dying like Greece now, the south countries basically are doomed, the ones around central-north Europe (Germany Netherlands Belgium) are still doing very well, France is ok for now, and the central/east Europe ones are on an uptrend still recovering from the USSR and oh boy I was talking to Czechs and Slovaks today and I dared to speak not completely negatively of communism and gosh the reactions it's like going to an Antifa group and praising Hitler. It's not just Hungarian & Polish politicians, the typical population hates communism with a passion and is very skeptical of the European central power. So to sum up I'd divide it like this: The economic gap between Europe North and South is the reason why the Euro is under stress and might have to be changed, OR - and this might be part of the plan - why Europe needs to have even MOAR power over the nations to make the Euro work. Italians do not want to end up like Greeks, there is a possibility that the EU collapses like the USSR. The divide between the US "camp 1" and "camp 2" is the reason why you cannot have shared laws and shared media and so on, or maybe it is a reason for the federal government to tighten its grip? Stubbornness and totally different ideals but also realities means there is a possibility that the US collapses like the USSR. In any case the government securities bagholders will be the greatest fools the world has ever seen. France has been vigorously fighting and spreading propaganda against Sputnik, the Russian vaccine. But oh joy, Germany started to import it. Now is the time we will see if France is Germany counterweight, Europe second power, or if France is a Chihuahua that will follow its master. I already know the answer :) The difference between the EU and the US is the EU has been stagnating for 20 years and will fall from that stagnant point, but they still retained a neutral trade balance and some manufacturing possibilities; whereas the US has been printing magical money and severely net importing to increase their wealth (not just stagnate) WHILE getting lazier and producing relatively less. So they will both fall from much higher and end up much lower. Some states have it worse than others we all have an idea I think? I can't mention the subject without offending the cry babies. You can look at the stats for the EU here on the link below, it goes back to 2002 it's the same story for 20 years just has kept balooning with more net importing from China and more net exporting to the USA. "Unsustainable" they said, now been going on 2 decades, nothing to see here. trade.ec.europa.eu
TVC:SPX
by MrRenev
3
US consumer confidence surges in March to one year highThe consumer confidence index increased to 109.7 in March from 90.4 in February, which beat the economists' forecast at 96.9 Consumers’ assessment of short term outlook on salaries, employment rate and commercial activities increased , with an optimism view on the domestic consumption market MM Analysis The consumer confidence index reached 109.7 in March, which echo with the increased number of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. Consumer's optimism derived from 3 main factors. 1. Increased vaccinations, which indicates a rebound on commercial activities 2. Labor market on the mend, i.e. decreasing Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, increasing US Non-farm Payrolls, which would boost the retail and personal consumption growth 3. Transfer income from the American Rescue Plan In conclusion, strong consumption confidence and high saving rate would provide a strong support on economic recover, pushing up the US GDP
TVC:DXY
by MacroMicro_Global
Canadian dollar slips to 3-week low, GDP nextThe Canadian dollar has lost ground for a second straight day. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2634, up 0.35% on the day. Earlier in the day, USD/CAD touched a high of 1.2674, its highest level since March 10th. It's been a quiet start to the week for USD/CAD, with no Canadian events. That will change on Wednesday, with the release of Canada's GDP for January. The street consensus stands at 0.5%, which would be a strong rebound from the lethargic 0.1% gain a month earlier. A figure higher than the estimate would be bullish for the Canadian dollar. We'll also get a look at the Raw Materials Price Index, an important inflation gauge. The index is expected to show a strong gain of 5.3% for February, after a reading of 5.7% a month earlier. This reflects pent-up demand due to the Covid- 19 lockdowns in effect.    US yields are on the march, with the 10-year yield rising to 1.77% on Tuesday, its highest level in 14 months. The rise in yields comes a day before President Biden will announce parts of a proposed new infrastructure plan, Build Back Better, a massive spending program which will carry a price tag of between 3-4 trillion dollars. HSBC sent out a note saying that “stimulus and any infrastructure plan are likely to prove to be a sugar rush for the economy”. Given that such a massive recovery program will trigger higher inflation, we could see bond yields continue to rise this week, which would likely prolong the dollar rally. Biden's massive package will undoubtedly include tax hikes, which is likely to garner strong opposition from the Republicans. USD/CAD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.2641, followed by resistance at 1.2713. On the downside, there is support at 1.2486. Below, there is support level is at 1.2403. This is followed by the 52-week low, at 1.2365
by OANDA
Some of the most notable GDP contractions of recent historyRussia & Ukraine bit the bullet in 2008 and has some decline, and another decline in the mid 2010s (maybe made worse because of droughts?). They recovered by now (the US collapse might pull them down or maybe free them to go up). Even Germany GDP between 2014 and 2015 dropped by 15% (never heard of a great depression) , their GDP now is back to 2014 levels, it took 3-4 years to get back to pre-(undercover) recession levels. France same thing, Turkey, Iran, the UK, Canada... There is 1 exception: the US. Hey George Soros was right shorting it back then but he forgot about brrrrr. China is also an exception but their growth was so big it could absorb the hit, it went from 10% growth to 6%. The US GDP did not drop and growth not even slowdown. The life expectancy in Russia was skyrocketting until 1965, this is when it started to stagnate even decline a bit (it dropped in the US btw they're behind several African countries now). It's ridiculous it went from 24 yo in 1945 (even before the war it was at around 30) to nearly 70 by 1965. No wonder communism lasted so long. Ironically much of the gains were from babies surviving birth but soviets started furiously aborting, so the real life expectancy actually went down... From the fall of the USSR to ~2000 depending on the source the life expectancy dropped by ~5 years. The US life expectancy did not drop since WW1, until 2020. Covid, or foreign dependency? The medications other countries used were not easilly available in the US. What if all their hate for the many treatments 2/3 the entire world outside of the west have been using was just a silly way to avoid saying "yes they work, but we don't have any of these cheap drugs"? The silly restriction rules in Europe, and part of the reason why the death rate was so high, is (officially and when you look at the numbers) a lack of beds. They did not have enough stuff to provide treatment to the sick. I think it's possible the US were in the same situation they dug themselves in over the years. A country collapsing does not mean "stock indice go down", it breaks down in many other ways, and "stonks" can keep going up like the pyramid scheme they are. A grim conclusion There was only 1 superpower left in 1992. Soon there will be 0 left. The standard of living of the west will drop but the US will drop most because they are on life support from the rest of the world (China, Mexico, Germany, and many others de facto send humanitarian aid to the US to keep them fat and rich). The higher you push life expectancy the exponentially harder it is right? And it drops more. Life expectancy in the US is going to drop by 5-10 years. It dropped by 5 years in Russia and it was not as high and Russia was not as broke as the US. A large part of the "problem" is the aging population (that refuses to postpone the age of retirement and ask for even more social welfare). Nature always finds a way... There is euphoria now it seems. Everyone cheers when they get their stimulus checks. They won't be cheering when they die of old age at 70 years old. My call: Less than 10 years before "This was not real socialism".
TVC:DJI
by MrRenev
1