Market Crash ahead and short opportunity is in.As mentioned in previous videos I am expecting a Market Crash to unfold in October. Here the current Chart of GER40
Ger40
GER40 Analysis 13Oct2023In my opinion, GER40 presents a slightly different perspective. If you observe the movement of the wave, you will notice a curve that is currently supporting it. Usually, when such a curve forms, the price tends to follow the same movement. Therefore, I believe that in the medium term, the price is likely to remain bearish.
Furthermore, if you look at the current situation, it is possible that we are in the bearish channel, which would mean that the price will continue to follow this downward trend.
GER40 possible bearish continuationAfter price broke structure to the downside, it retraced and formed trendline liquidity below an extreme supply zone that was left behind during the expansion. Price could now use this supply and liquidity to fuel its move down to take out the weak low.
DAX has started the new Channel Down bullish legDAX hit last week the bottom (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down that started after the July 31 High. Technically that is a short-term buy signal, aimed at the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the top of the Channel Down. Our current target is 15500 (also on a +3.70% symmetry with the previous bullish leg of the Channel).
A 1D candle close above the Channel Up will be a bullish break-out signal targeting 15920 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement level). But until it does, the trend will remain bearish within the Channel Down, targeting the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) at 14750.
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DAX Bottom rebound buy opportunity to 15650.DAX (DE40) has made a short-term bottom near the Lower Lows trend-line of the Channel Down after hitting the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This is a short-term buy signal to at least 15650, which is on the Channel's top and represents a symmetrical +3.66% rise similar to the previous Lower High leg. If it doesn't get rejected, this is where the Fibonacci retracement levels come forward. The 0.382 Fib is almost exactly on our target.
A break above, which would also be a break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), targets Resistance 1 (15995), which is exactly on the 0.618 Fib. Only a candle closing above that Resistance justifies a bullish reversal for the long-term.
If the 1D MA50 doesn't break, we expect the Channel Down to look for a 1W candle closing below the 1W MA50, which can technically deliver a downward extension towards the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) on the 6-month Support Zone. If that scenario prevails, we will need to see a clear indication that this will be the same High Demand Zone as during March 15 - 24, when all attempts to break it reversed emphatically as most candles closed above it leaving long wicks inside the Zone.
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Indices Outlook GER40 and US100Shorterm and Longerterm outlook for indices to see where the opportunities are.
GER40 lack of interest is a concern for the bulls.GER40 - 24h expiry
The lack of interest is a concern for bulls.
Previous support at 15600 now becomes resistance.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high.
Current prices have reacted from a low of 15327, however, we expect further losses to follow.
We look to Sell at 15578 (stop at 15678)
Our profit targets will be 15328 and 15268
Resistance: 15440 / 15500 / 15600
Support: 15327 / 15300 / 15200
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX Under the 1day MA200 after 11 months!DAX / DE40 crossed today under the 1day MA200 for the first time since November 10th 2022.
In the meantime it also broke under the wide Channel Up pattern that was holding since the December 20th 2022 Low.
This is a critical bearish break out signal and closing a 1day candle under the MA200, confirms the extension to a new Low.
Support A is at 15455 (so far a Double Bottom), so it is better to wait for a sell until this level breaks.
If it does, sell the first minor bounce and target 15050 (almost -6% from the recent top).
Important note: The 1day MACD is also under a Sell Cross.
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DAX Bullish as long as the 1D MA200 holds.DAX (DE40) has been neutral on the 1D time-frame, trading sideways within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) since August 03. We can see two clear Support and Resistance Zones. Today the price is approaching once more the 1D MA200, following yesterday's Fed Rate Decision, so it is a buy opportunity again. Target the bottom of the Resistance Zone at 16000.
Apart from that, the Fibonacci retracement levels since the July 31 High, make solid Supports and Resistances, with the 0.5 Fib currently being one.
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DAX: Pullback buy opportunity, very stable consolidation range.DAX formed a Bullish Cross between the 4H MA50 and MA100 but dropped sharply, the same kind of sell-off (proportionally) it had on the previous MA50-100 Bullish Cross (July 31st) which was a structured top. Opposite to theory, the Bearish Crosses have marked the bottoms.
In any case, the 1D technical outlook is neutral (RSI = 51.653, MACD = -44.700, ADX = 19.555) and that is largely due to the 0.236 - 0.786 Fibonacci range which has kept the index consolidating since almost the start of August.
Consequently any pull-back near the 0.236 Fibonacci would make an ideal buy entry. We will target a little under Fibonacci 0.786 (TP = 15,900).
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DAX bullish, all time high soonI can guarantee that Ger30 will climb to the top again, baisd on some candle I know , which I call hack or glitch
Good luck
DAX Trading plan within this 1H Channel DownDAX is within a Channel Down pattern on the 1H time-frame and just bounced back to its top (Lower Highs trend-line), hitting the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line) immediately. As long as the price remains within the Channel Down, sell and target the Inner Lower Lows trend-line at 15525.
With the 1H MACD just forming a Bullish Cross that high for the first time since September 01, it is equally likely to see a bullish break-out above the Channel. We will buy if it breaks above the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which should coincide with a 1H MA200 (orange trend-line) test. In that case our target will be 15940 (the 0.786 Fibonacci).
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DAX: Low risk buy here but exit below the 1D MA200.DAX got rejected on the 1D MA50 and pulled back to the bottom of the Channel Up again. The 1D technical outlook turned bearish (RSI = 43.037, MACD = -52.700, ADX = 29.821) a closing under the 1D MA200 confirms a long term bearish reversal. Until that happens, we will be bullish on this bottom structure, targeting R1 (TP = 16,530).
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✅ Daily Market Analysis - THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 07, 2023Key events:
USA - Initial Jobless Claims
USA - Crude Oil Inventories
On Wednesday, global stock indices experienced a downturn, while the benchmark US Treasury yield surged, and the US dollar reached its highest point in six months. This surge was driven by strong data from the US services sector, indicating that inflationary pressures continue to be a concern.
The impact of these developments was notably significant on Wall Street, where shares of tech behemoth Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) took a hit, falling by 3.6%. The Wall Street Journal reported that China had issued a ban on officials working at central government agencies from using iPhones and other foreign-branded devices for official purposes.
Apple stock daily chart
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) has reported an increase in its non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August. This uptick suggests that new orders are strengthening, and businesses are experiencing higher input costs. Some investors have taken this data as an indication that interest rates could remain elevated for an extended period. However, the general consensus is that the US Federal Reserve will maintain its current pause on rate hikes during its upcoming meeting later this month.
Adding to the discussion, Fed Bank of Boston President Susan Collins has stressed the importance of exercising caution in the central bank's future monetary policy decisions, despite signs of progress in controlling inflation.
These developments had repercussions in the stock market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing a decline of 198.78 points, equivalent to 0.57%, closing at 34,443.19. Similarly, the S&P 500 saw a loss of 31.35 points, or 0.70%, finishing at 4,465.48, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 148.48 points, a 1.06% decrease, to conclude the day at 13,872.47.
NASDAQ Index daily chart
SPX Index daily chart
Today, European stock markets are poised to open with losses, driven by fresh signals of slowing growth in both Europe and China. Moreover, concerns about potential tightening measures by the Federal Reserve are further dampening market sentiment.
In Germany, DAX futures have declined by 0.3%, while CAC 40 futures in France have also slipped by 0.3%. Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 futures contract in the UK is down by 0.2%. Earlier economic data revealed a 0.8% month-on-month drop in German industrial production for July, surpassing expectations of a 0.5% decline. This latest data point adds to a string of reports indicating that the largest economy in the eurozone is facing significant challenges and might be at risk of slipping back into recession.
DAX index daily chart
CAC 40 index daily chart
FTSE 100 index daily chart
In addition to the European economic concerns, China's trade data for August painted a challenging picture. Exports in China dropped by 8.8% year-on-year, while imports fell by 7.3%. While these figures exceeded expectations, they highlight the continued strain on China's manufacturing sector, emphasizing the urgency for policymakers to focus on stimulating domestic demand to support economic growth. China's economic performance carries significant weight for Europe's largest companies, and its ongoing challenges have a ripple effect on their financial results.
Shifting our attention to the Bank of Canada (BoC), the central bank recently made a decision in line with expectations by keeping its policy rates unchanged during its interim meeting. While the BoC did acknowledge a reduction in excess demand, it left the door open for potential future rate hikes. The central bank expressed concerns about the persistent pressure on underlying inflation. In summary, the BoC's communication leaned towards a more hawkish stance, pointing out the absence of recent downward momentum in underlying inflation and emphasizing the risk that elevated inflation could become entrenched.
XAU/USD H8 chart
On Thursday, gold prices held steady, although they faced some downward pressure due to the strength of the US dollar and Treasury yields.
The dollar index reached a fresh six-month high, touching 105.03, and was last seen trading at 104.85, reflecting a 0.1% increase. Meanwhile, the euro experienced slight gains, edging up by 0.03% to reach $1.0723.
DXY H8 chart
In contrast, oil prices took a different turn, reversing their earlier declines and ending the day with gains. This shift was primarily fueled by trader expectations of forthcoming reductions in US crude oil inventory.
Brent crude futures settled at $90.60 per barrel, registering a rise of 56 cents, while US crude futures closed at $87.54, marking an increase of 85 cents.
Looking ahead, one of the most significant data releases for today is the euro area wage figures, particularly compensation per employee for the second quarter of 2023. This specific wage measure is closely monitored by the European Central Bank (ECB), and its release holds substantial importance as it serves as the final significant data point before the upcoming ECB monetary policy meeting scheduled for next Thursday.
GER 30 BUYHi, According to the ger30 index analysis. There is a good chance to buy. The market broke a bearish flag. It also broke the strong resistance level at 15790. The market started to form an ascending channel, as shown in the analysis. Buyers power guide. Good luck everyone
GER40 Analysis 27Aug2023last week the price managed to form a new HH and at the close it looks corrected. the chances are that the price will still have a limited downside before continuing bullish.
DAX Found Support on the Megaphone's Higher Lows.DAX is on the 8th straight sideways 1D candle as it found Support on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Bullish Megaphone pattern. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the short-term Resistance while the price is trading around the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as pivot.
We are bullish, targeting the Internal Higher Highs trend-line at 17000, as long as the Megaphone's bottom holds. The bullish extension may be even higher considering the fact that the medium-term pattern could be an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) that technically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 17400.
If however the price breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line, we will short-term sell targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) where a 1D candle close below it, would justify a bearish extension to Support 2 at 14470.
For now the trend remains bullish, as illustrated by the 1D RSI also which is on an 8-month Support Zone.
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DAX40 hourly breakdownWith the DAX making all time highs and now creating new levels of support, the best we can do is work with previous levels. When an instrument is making ATH's it is difficult to chart exactly where the next level of resistance will be, as it is all untested area and it's up to the market to decide just how overbought it really is before we can move down.
Looking at the DAX40 we can see several levels of strong support that may act as resistance in the future, such as the 16332.4 level which was the resistance created 2 months ago and is now acting as current support. Should we close blow this level, there is a no trade range that would be best to avoid purely due to price action potentially catching us out.
Closure below 16267.2 would be great for sells, as there is a clean range below here and typically in the past when price has closed below this level price moves down towards 16242 and 16196.
Will DAX's selloff stall at market prices?GER40 - 24h expiry
The primary trend remains bullish.
We look to buy dips.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
50 1-day EMA is at 16050.
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
We look to Buy at 16051 (stop at 15951)
Our profit targets will be 16301 and 16351
Resistance: 16150 / 16250 / 16300
Support: 16109 / 16000 / 15900
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX to reach a new all time high today?GER40 - Intraday
Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 16450.
There is no indication that the rally is coming to an end.
Short term momentum is bullish.
We look for gains to be extended today.
A break of yesterdays high would confirm bullish momentum.
We look to Buy a break of 16461 (stop at 16361)
Our profit targets will be 16711 and 16781
Resistance: 16450 / 16600 / 16700
Support: 16330 / 16250 / 16200
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
GER40 / DAX Analysis 26July2023Ger40 / Dax entered the initial correction period. If you see Wave A has the same length as Wave C, then the possibility that is happening at this time is the formation of Wave (X), after Wave (X) occurs, the price will return to the target with the target up to the trendline below. There is a possibility that the price drops not to the trendline area, by forming complex correction.
DAX intraday dips continue to attract buyers.GER40 - 24h expiry
Trading within a Bullish Channel formation.
Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
50 4hour EMA is at 16125.
We look to buy dips.
Price action continues to trade around significant highs.
We look to Buy at 16131 (stop at 16031)
Our profit targets will be 16381 and 16461
Resistance: 16240 / 16300 / 16400
Support: 16200 / 16150 / 16100
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX: Supported by the 1D MA50, ready for a slingshot.DAX is on a marginally bullish 1D timeframe (RSI = 56.008, MACD = 24.500, ADX = 26.521), which indicates that there is still significant upside potential to the rebound that started on the July 7th Low. That Low may have been a HL on the long term Channel Up but also a LL on the two month Channel Down. The 1D RSI is also at the top of its Channel Down, so in order for us to buy again, we need to see a breakout over both tops.
If that happens, then there are high probabilities of the move replicating the slingshot of April-May as they both broke out after an Inverse Head and Shoulders was formed. Consequently we will buy that breakout and set a TP = 16,800.
It's worth mentioning that a crossing over the R1 invalidates the potential of a Head and Shoulders (bearish pattern) that may be forming since May 19th.
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