GLD
Gold Builds Base : Look For Support Below $2650 For LongsMy research shows Gold will make another big move upward over the next 10-15+ days - targeting $2740-2750. But first, Gold will attempt to base/bottom near or below $2650 over the next two trading days.
My research suggests Oct 3 and Oct 4 will likely be the start of a rally phase for Gold targeting the $2750 level by Oct 14-15.
I believe traders should attempt to look for long entries below $2645-2655 and view any move below $2640 as a deep low opportunity.
Gold is still hedging the global risk factors at play throughout the world and will attempt to move above $3050 before the end of 2024.
Get ready. This is the start of the big rally phase I've been warning you about for the past 3-4+ years.
Everything I suggested would happen is taking place right now. You just have to be able to take the trades to benefit from these moves.
Get some.
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GOLD --- When Breakout? $2700 Target remains in place. The war against sound money...
keeping a "lid" on the price of the worlds biggest asset
and truly the only real collateral in the world.
Is being slowly lost.
We have a continuation head and shoulders that many people are watching.
But something to note
Is that the previous times #Gold has traded above 2 thousand dollars
The smackdown has been quick and violent.
If you noice in the past few weeks,
the compression of price ,
and the consecutive number of weekly closes above 2k.
Is the most it has ever been.
Are the Bankers ready to let it run...
since they seem to be pumping up all assets prices for the 2024 election.
I think the ramp up to 2.7k could be quite violent... do we get there by summer?
Bearish signals for BitcoinHistorically, the DMI cross has helped confirmed a change in the trend
CRYPTOCAP:BTC has been forming a 8-month base at resistance levels
The -DM has been above the +DM for 8 weeks
Still price is king, let's see if the digital gold can catch up with the fisical gold AMEX:GLD
GOLD Makes A Big Move Targeting $2720Even though my Gold Cycle Patterns suggested Gold would consolidate a bit in early trading this week, the big breakout move today shows just how undervalued Gold really is.
Yes, my Gold Cycle Patterns did not predict this upward price move clearly.
This is an example where my patterns/expectations did not match exactly what price did. it happens.
You could say my expectations were a bit behind the trend or the trend was a bit ahead of my expectations - but either way this move surprised me.
Clearly, gold is making a big move and my upper target is 2710-2720.
Today's move will likely stall out near 2685, then contract to levels near 2670-2675.
Remember, Gold really wants to rally up to 2710-2720+. So, you have quite a bit of time to play this move efficiently.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Gold: Three Accelerating Up Trend Lines and SupportFor consideration: Hold if currently owned. If not, buy at $2,550, a 2.9% decline from the current price. This price touches the current up trend line. Put a stop loss at $2,500. Ride the up trend and sell with a material penetration. The trend is a series of three accelerating up trends so the steepness indicates it may not be sustainable. Plus, RSI has touched 70 twice recently meaning it's getting overbought. Note the two resistance and support levels at $2,288 and $2,072: 13% and 21% price declines respectively. If prices bounces off either of these supports, buy. These are my technical ideas based on price and trend analysis. I could be wrong and would be careful with such a steep existing trend established.
Is Gold signalling a crisis? Gold is going parabolic and typically that doesnt mean a good thing.
Now there are many reasons this could be rallying and likely a combination of the few.
- Fed Rate Cut
- Geo political tension
- Weak Fiat currencies
- Currency Crisis
- Weakening economies
In a time where gold enters these monthly extreme RSI moves it typically signals a good time to start trimming.
Gold usually goes through a multi month correction but this could also spill into other asset classes.
As the steepening effect on the 10y/2y finally was confirmed today, large macro implications could follow and this is exactly what Gold confirmed this week.
Bitcoin Outlook For September-December 200k-400k Trend
Bitcoin Outlook For September-December
Today we take a look at the Bitcoin price and we also cross check this with the spot Gold price.
Gold is a leading indicator for where a bulk of major capital flows when navigating the market and this is due to Gold being a safe haven next to Government bonds to park capital when you know governments will start forcing rate cuts with chance of QE + YCC.
Historically Gold clearly shows us the rallies prior the capital rotating into risk on assets, we saw it in 2017, 2020, and now we see it in 2024. If history repeats this would reprice Bitcoin to over $200,000 - $400,000 and this would start the next phase of the bull market.
Spot ETF Flows are strong, institutions have tested marketing strategies, Blackrock is currently pushing to enable the derivatives layers on top of the Spot ETF's.
I have compiled and tested Spot ETF data and I have found the Spot ETF to have a 3.32 impact for every dollar. To get to the price target of 400k total Spot ETF AUM would need to total 363.19B (Currently $52.04 billion).
Conclusion
This is feeling more and more like $2,200 during July 2017 shortly after prices rallied to $5,690 by October 2017, a similar repeat would take the price to $150,000.
Institutions are accumulating slowly based on the dips indicating they are trying to keep the price under an amount like $100,000 that could trigger a rush back into Bitcoin by retail. Balances of > 100 Bitcoin and of > 1,000 are slowly starting to rise.
Balances of > 0.1 & > 1.0 & > 0.01 have started to trend sideways reducing each month indicating a sense of "boredom" where retail is selling and institutions are accumulating these bored coins.
MSTR remains to be one of the bullish stocks relating to Bitcoin and when institutions launch a large marketing campaign and start mutual fund allocations the MSTR / Multiple to NAV will experience large volatility.
The cycles are similar but the game has changed, all the money in the world has access to the Bitcoin market and there's less than 3,000,000 coins left to purchase. Once the next stage of this market begins it will be met with shock by retail and news around the world.
Extra Math Notes
Ratio of Exchange Balance to Active Supply:
3,000,000 #BTC (Exchange Balance)
Ratio ≈ 0.301
9,964,872.56 BTC (Active Supply)
Spot ETF AUM has a 3.32 Price Impact
400k = 363.19b
I have figured out this formula by taking the exchange balances / Active Supply of Bitcoin that is lively the last years and not lost or total supply, getting the ratio and figuring out how much the Spot ETF moves the Bitcoin price.
Gold futures: possible path to $3k - down then upIt looks like wave 3 is about to reach its climax soon as EWO indicator shows Bearish divergence with the rising price.
Wave 4 down could drop to the valley of smaller wave 4 around $2,285 and touch the downside of very beautiful uptrend. It should stay above the top of wave 1 at $2,085 otherwise the wave count could be invalidated.
Wave 5 in commodities is usually extended, $3k target doesn't look impossible though.
$GLD short term top? Buy the dip at $177 or lower?AMEX:GLD looks like it's putting in a top here. While I do think commodities have started longer term bull trends, I think if we see a big move down in risk assets, commodities won't escape the bearish move.
I think it's likely that we reverse from this level and find support somewhere between $177-169 region.
However, I'm not ruling out the possibility of a larger move down. Supports on the charts.
After we see a major correction, I'll look for long-term entries as I think that move down will start the next bull run.