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Gold-trading

Gold- head and shoulder and possible Cypher Resistance- $1288, $1293, $1303 Support- $1283, $1278-1276, $1263 Gold's turn lower from the higher of $1294 levels led to formation of lower top formation and added credence to the possibility of head and shoulder breakout on the hourly chart. The neckline at $1278 could be pierced thus opening doors for a drop to support t $1263 (which could be point C of Cypher pattern from where a fresh bullish move could happen). On the other hand, a failure to dip below $1283 followed by a break above $1294 would open doors for a rise to $1300-1303 levels.
FX:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
2
Gold - Head and Shoulder formation on hourlyResistance - $1288, $1300, $1310 Support - $1276, $1270, $1263 Sharp rally in Cable in Asia on account of drop in Brexit bets also weighed over gold. Consequently, prices dipped to $1280 levels, thus increasing the odds of a head and shoulder formation on the hourly chart with neckline support at $1276 (also hourly 200-MA). Hourly closing below the same would open doors for a drop to $1263-$1253 levels. On the higher side, breach of $1300 would signal failure of head and shoulder formation and shift risk in favor of a rise to $1320-1325 levels.
FX:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
Gold- $1272 is a strong supportResistance - $1287, $130, $1313 Support - $1283, $1272, $1263 Gold’s failure to take out weekly 200-MA followed by a break below $1300 resulted in a correction to $1285 levels as expected yesterday. The inverted bearish hammer candle seen on the daily chart indicates bulls may be facing exhaustion, thus short-term loss of bullish momentum could be seen. Nevertheless, metal could make another attempt at $1300 handle if prices manage to take out $1291 (hourly 50-MA). On the lower side, break below hourly 200-MA of $1272 would signal short-term is in place around $1315.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
Gold - Above $1300 with overbought RSIResistance - $1303, $1313, $1322 Support - $1296, $1287, $1283 Cautious Fed and a resulting sharp drop in Fed rate hike bets pushed gold above $1300 levels in Asia, although the 4-hour RSI is overbought, while daily RSI is entering overbought territory. Furthermore, dovish Fed was priced-into some extent, thus leaving doors for a technical correction to daily 5-MA level of $1287 levels. Gold's failure to take out/sustain above $1303 followed by a break below Asian session low of $1296 would signal a drop to $1287 levels. On the higher side, breach of $1303 on hourly closing basis could yield $1310-1312 levels. Gold Seasonality study
FX:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
Gold could test hourly 100-MA support ahead of FedResistance - $1288, $1295, $1300 Support - $1283, $1276, $1263 Gold's repeated failure to have a sustainable rally above March 2016 high of $1284 coupled with falling tops formation of the hourly RSI indicates prices could test support of hourly 100-Ma located at at $1276 ahead of the Fed rate decision. A rebound from hourly 100-MA followed by a break above $1288 (preferably on hourly closing basis) would signal a more sustainable move higher to $1303-1310 levels.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
Gold – Rising trend line breached on hourlyResistance - $1283.43, $1295, $1303 Support - $1273, $1269, $1263 Gold’s breach of rising trend line on the hourly chart could signal a short-term loss of bullish momentum and leave the doors open for a fall back to daily 5-MA level of $1273 ahead of tomorrow’s Fed rate decision. On the other hand, a break above Asian session high of $1283.43 could see prices make an attempt at $1290-1295. Moreover, a rebound from daily 5-MA of $1273 followed by a break above $1283 would be a more potent signal of further upside. In this case, prices could test $1300-1303 levels.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
Gold eyeing March 2016 highGold's break above $1271.72 indicates the bearish price RSI divergence seen in early European longer holds true and thus prices are now heading towards March 2016 high of $1284.81. The move comes a day after prices witnessed a bullish break from falling trend line level, which adds credence to violation of bearish price RSI divergence on hourly timeframe. Note - Failure to take out area around $1284.81 followed by a fall back below $1263 could signal head and shoulder formation with neckline at around $1190 levels.
FX:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
Gold - Is it making head and shoulder formation?Resistance - $1272, $1284, $1300 Support - $1260, $1253, $1247 Hourly chart pattern - Rising trend line at risk of being breached, bearish price RSI divergence Daily chart pattern - Possible head and shoulder formation Gold's bearish price rsi divergence on the hourly chart if followed by a hourly closing below rising trend line would indicate increased risk of a drop to $1153 levels. A day end closing back below falling trend line (black) seen on the daily chart would increase risk of the XAU/USD forming head and shoulder pattern with neckline around $1195 levels. On the higher side, an hourly closing above $1172 would expose hurdle at $1284. Only day end closing above $1284 reduce the probability of prices forming head and shoulder.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
Gold - rebound from rising trend line, points northwardsResistance - $1270, $1284, $1295-1300 support - $1260, $1253, $1247 Gold's rebound from rising trend line support despite bearish price RSI divergence seen on hourly chart indicates the bullish momentum is strong. Prices have moved above $1263 and appear on track to test resistance at $1270. A day end closing above $1266 today would signal possible rally to $1284 levels. On the other hand, an hourly closing below rising trend line (blue line on hourly) support at $1260 would also mark failure to sustain above falling trend line on daily chart and expose support at $1253-1247 levels.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
Gold - Bearish price RSI divergence at falling trend line hurdleResistance - $1263, $1270, $1284 Support - $1260, $1253, $1247 Gold's bearish price RSI divergence on the hourly chart comes at a time when the metal is attempting a bullish break from falling trend line on the daily chart. In this scenario,a failure to hold above $1260 (rising trend line support on hourly) would add credence to bearish divergence and open doors for a fall back to $1253 levels. A violation there would expose support at $1247. On the higher side, an hourly closing above $1266.37 would signal bearish divergence invalidation and shift risk in favor of a rise to $1270-$1270 levels.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
Gold – now eyeing falling trend line hurdleResistance - $1263, $1270, $1284 Support - $1253, $1247, $1243 As anticipated earlier today , Gold breached $1253 (earlier resistance, now support). A sharp recovery from low of $1234 followed by a break above daily 50-MA and subsequent breach of key Fibo level at $1253 indicates prices are on track to test falling trend line resistance currently seen at $1263 levels. A day end closing above the same would indicate a short-term bottom is in place at $1234. On the lower side, a clear break below $1230 is needed to signal bullish invalidation.
FX:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
Gold – 23.6% Fibo hurdle stands exposedResistance - $1253, $1263, $1270 Support - $1242-1240, $1234, $1230 Gold’s recovery from yesterday’s low of $1234 followed by a move back above $1243 (23.6% of Dec low-May high) and a subsequent rise above daily 50-MA indicates the metal is likely to test $1253 (23.6% of 2011 high-2015 low). Moreover, prices could take out $1253; given the daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher. Thus, the falling trend line (black) hurdle at $1263 levels stands exposed. On the lower side, a break below $1253 could yield $1234 (previous day’s low).
FX:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
Gold - Flag formation on hourlyResistance - $1246, $1253, $1263 Support - $1242-1240, $1234, $1230 Gold's failure to take out daily 50-MA in Asia if followed by a bearish break from flag formation on the hourly chart would open doors for a drop to $1234 levels. On the higher side, an hourly closing above $1246 would mark bullish break from flg formation and signal continuation of the upmove. In such a case, resistance at $1253 could be put to tests and which if breached shall open doors for $1260-1263 levels.
FX:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
Gold – Bullish move stalled at 23.6% FiboResistance - $1253, $1264, $1270 Support - $1242, $1239.26, $1230 Gold’s sharp rally on Friday post horrible non-farm payrolls release has left it overbought as per RSI on the hourly and 4-hour time frame. Consequently, bullish momentum ran out of steam as prices approached $1253 (23.6% of 2011 high-2015 low) in Asia. Further correction to $1239-1235 cannot be ruled out, especially since prices are having a tough time holding above weekly 5-MA. A recovery from $1239-1235 region followed by a break above Asian session high of $1248.73 could see prices attempt a break above $1253. If successful, doors would open for a rally to $1263 levels. On the lower side, break below daily 100-MA at $1224 would signal bullish invalidation, although on a larger scheme of things bears would have more say below $1191 (Oct 2015 high) levels.
FX:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
Gold – Trend line support at $1207Resistance - $1221, $1235, $1243 Support - $1211, $1207, $1200 Gold’s failure to sustain above daily 5-MA in Asia if followed by a break below strong trend line support at $1207 levels would open doors for test of psychological level of $1200.00. Note that prices failed to take out daily 100-MA yesterday. Consequently, bears appear in control and a violation at $1207 could actually yield a drop to major support at $1191 (Oct 2015 high). On the other hand, a clear break above daily 100-MA seen today at $1221 is needed to indicate short-term bearish invalidation.
FX:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
Gold – Minor rising channel established on hourly chartResistance - $1223, $1230, $1246 Support - $1210 , $1200, $1191 Gold bullish price RSI divergence on the hourly chart and a subsequent rise in prices has led to a formation of a minor rising channel. However, prices failed to chew through supply around daily 100-MA of $1220 in Asia and fell back to $1215 levels. Failure at daily 100-MA followed by a break below rising channel on the hourly chart could signal further losses towards $1200 support. On the higher side, resistance at $1220 could stay intact and intraday bearish invalidation is seen only if prices see a bullish break from rising channel.
FX:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
1
Gold – Fed rate hike talks hurtResistance - $1218.75, $1232, $1246 Support - $1209.84, $1200, $1191.53 Gold’s bullish price RSI divergence followed by a break above hourly 50-MA indicates doors remain open for a test of supply around daily 50-SMA of $1218.75 levels. However, resistance at $1218.75 is likely to stay intact with re-test of $1200 levels seen likely in case prices dip below Asian session low of $1209.84 levels. Daily RSI is still few points away from oversold territory, indicating a re-test of $1200 is likely if prices break below Asian session low. Yellen hinted at a possible rise in June or July on Friday and that triggered a drop in the yellow metal to $1200 levels. Investment demand is the primary determinant for the metal price. Gold needs to be looked at as a hard currency and not a metal. That makes it clear why prices rallied in Q1 – given the falling Fed rate hike bets and negative rates in Japan and Euro zone. Only a rise in interest rates could hurt gold, although resulting risk-off in equities could cap losses. As of now, financial markets are quite steady, thus rising Fed rate hike bets are hurting gold.
FX:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
Gold - Bulls need break above hourly 100-MAGold rose to a high of $1223 in Europe before trimming gains and falling back to $1215 levels in early US session. Upward revision of US GDP is helping USD strengthen, although the bullish price RSI divergence on the hourly chart is still intact. Moreover, divergence would be negated only if prices see a hourly closing below $1211.48 levels. However, bulls need a convincing break above hourly 50-MA, which has acted as a strong resistance on multiple occasions. Take note of the blue circles, which show repeated failure to take out/sustain above hourly 50-MA levels. Given the bullish price RSI divergence, the likelihood of a convincing break above hourly 50-MA is high. The outlook is at a risk of hawkish comments from Fed's Yellen.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
Gold outlook – Eyes US GDP and Yellen speechResistance - $1223, $1230, $1245 Support – $1216, $1211.48, $1200 Yellow metal declined till $1211.52 in Asia before making a move back above daily 50-MA level of $1216 amid oversold RSI on daily time frame. The hourly chart also shows a bullish price RSI divergence. Consequently, a break above daily high of $1223 would open doors for a rise to $1230 levels. Further gains could run into supply around $1240-45 levels. On the lower side, a break below daily 50-MA would expose Asian session low of $1211.48 levels. An upward revision of the US Q1 GDP coupled with hawkish comments from Fed’s Yellen could easily push June rate hike bets above 50.00. In such a case, Gold could challenge demand around $1200 levels.
FX:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
3
Gold outlook – increased risk of drop to daily 100-SMAResistance – $1230, $1236, $1249 Support – $1224.60, $1215.33, $1200 Doji formation on daily chart adds credence to a possibility of minor technical correction in gold, although prices failed near daily 5-MA in Asia. This if followed by a move below Asian session low of $1224.60 would open doors for a slide to daily 100-MA level of $1215.33. Such a move would daily RSI into oversold territory, thus leading to sideways to positive action.
FX:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance
Gold outlook - Technical correction likelyResistance - $1242.21, $1253, $1263 Support - $1223.24, $1212, $1200 Gold's sharp fall yesterday to $1223.33 pushed the 4-hr RSI into the oversold territory. The wave count structure also shows an extended third wave may have come to an end and a rebound from trend line (drawn from Feb 16 low-Mar 28 low) amid oversold RSI could translate into a rise to $1242 levels (23.6% of 1303.63-1223.33). On the lower side, intraday break below yesterday's low of $1223.33 should be treated with caution, given the oversold RSI. Short-term loss of momentum could lead to sideways action or minor correction.
FX:XAUUSD
by TipTVFinance