Goldtradingstrategy
Gold Next Week Timeframe :
D1 trendline broke
H4 Bullish eng
H1 Bullish eng + FVG
D1 trendline has broken the down trendline, H4 has bullish engulfing at demand zone, H1 has also bullish engulfing and Fair Value Gap (FVG).
Entry :
According to H1 TF, entry point is 2643 at the area of FVG and Bullish engulfing.
Stop loss 2630 and Target is 2723.
Its possible to achieve target next week in FOMC.
12.20 Gold short-term short-selling trend remains unchangedAgainst the backdrop of changes in the Fed's expectations for a rate cut in 2025, and the reduction in the number of rate cuts and the reduction in the magnitude, the gold market plunged sharply on Wednesday night. Although there was a rebound on Thursday, the price once reached 2626. However, it should be noted that this seemingly strong rebound is actually a bullish counterattack after the decline, and it is difficult to reverse the overall downward trend.
From the daily trend pattern, the closing line of the high-rise and fall leaves a long upper shadow, which means that the increase cannot be maintained and the strong pattern is difficult to return.
This rebound, on the one hand, vented the resistance of the bulls, and on the other hand, it confirmed the pullback of the previous bottom support and completed the top-bottom conversion. Once the key support level is broken, the bears will continue. In addition, after the short-term touches the whole hundred mark, there will be repeated situations. From the technical perspective, whether it is rising or falling in the short-term, after touching the whole hundred mark, there will be short-term repetitions. Therefore, after yesterday's decline and the price fell below 2600, it is normal for the price to rebound.
Although the current market has not started to fall, it is very difficult for the price to return to the original support level, and the downward trend has become a high probability event.
Today's trading strategy:
SELL: 2620 Target 2600 90 80
XAUUSD (Gold) Bullish trade Idea over the breakout of 2604.02 leXAUUSD (Gold) Bullish trade idea over the breakout of 2604.02 level.
Gold fell on the recent 18 Dec 2024 FOMC, and on 19 Dec 2024 the unemployment data was strong for the US dollar, so now I am watching the buy-side trade idea over the breakout of the 2604.02 level with strong confirmations of price at this level.
The setup must meet the required momentum in the price. The sentiments also show the price will move as per the data revelled from various sites.
Setup;
Gold Buy at level: 2604.2-2605.2
Stop Loss: 2599.2 (50 pips) or the low of previous candle
Take Profit; 2623
*Note; If the valid breakout will be found then the setup also valid otherwised find more oppercunity.
#GOLD READY FOR A PULL BACK ...XAU/USD is showing signs of exhaustion near resistance, suggesting a potential pullback could be on the horizon. Traders should keep an eye on key levels for confirmation, as the price could retest lower support zones. A retracement here might offer fresh buying opportunities if the overall uptrend remains intact. Stay alert for breakout or reversal signals to plan your next move effectively!
Gold Market Update:Corective Phase Set Stage for Further DeclineGold has entered a corrective phase following yesterday's substantial decline, with price action consolidating within a defined range. This period of consolidation is expected to persist, allowing the market to recalibrate before the prevailing bearish momentum likely resumes. Downside targets remain intact, with the next leg lower anticipated once the correction concludes. Engage with this analysis by liking, sharing, or sharing your perspectives in the comments below.
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
What can I say...we totally smashed the pips today !!!
Our chart idea and levels were respected perfectly allowing us to track the movement down with ema5 cross and lock confirmations on our weighted levels, giving us the bounces.
The break from the retracement range opened and completed the swing range, which did exactly what it says on the tin giving us the full swing, which we were able to catch for a clean 280pips!!
The beauty of our strategy to buy dips from our weighted levels allows us to catch pips regardless which way the market goes.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2666
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2666 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2682
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2682 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2697
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2697 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2719
BEARISH TARGETS
2645 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2645 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2628 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2628 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2606 - 2586 - DONE
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
12.20 Gold Short-term Operation Analysis StrategyYesterday, the gold market opened at 2645.2 in the morning, and then the market rose slightly. The daily line reached a high of 2652, and then the market was in a range. Before 3 am, the daily line reached a low of 2632.9, and then the market was in a range. Although the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the early morning, the dot plot showed that the rate cuts next year would be reduced from 4 to 2, and the Fed Chairman later confirmed that the market broke through and fell sharply. The daily line reached a low of 2583.1, and then the market was in a range. The daily line finally closed After the line reached 2585.2, the daily line closed with a saturated large negative line with a slightly longer upper shadow line. After this pattern ended, the rebound trend was destroyed. The market has a need to continue to fall back within a certain period of time. In terms of points, the short position at 2600 this morning was reduced and the stop loss was followed up at 2602. Today's market first rose to give a 2600 short conservative 2612 short stop loss of 2616. The lower targets are 2590 and 2583. If it falls below, it will focus on the 2572 and 2563-2554 support range.
Gold price analysis December 19⭐️Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices fell sharply due to the impact of the Fed's less dovish outlook.
Fed Chairman Powell emphasized cautious policy in the context of ongoing high inflation risks.
The Fed forecasts inflation target to reach 2% in the next 1-2 years, indicating slow progress.
The latest dot chart shows few interest rate cuts until 2026, stabilizing the Fed funds rate at 3.4%.
⭐️Technical Analysis
Gold prices fell to the 2685 area and were accepted by buyers to push prices up around 2610 in the Asian session. If the European session fails to break 2613, Gold will continue to fall in the European session and the destination is relatively far away at 2585-2558. In case the resistance zone at 2613 is broken, the direction is towards 2633, which is the first corrective wave SELL zone and the second corrective wave SELL zone around 2663
Gold Next MoveIn my previous set, as i said i will take long trade at the price 2643 and our sl was 2630, it was running 200 pips and changed the trend into bearish so that i took short trade in fomc and Alhamdulillah got it.
Now trend is bearish, i will take short position.
Timeframe :
D1 support broke + trendline broke
H4 demand broke + failed eng
H1 demand broke + bearish eng
D1 has broke the support and has broke trendline, H4 has broke demand zone and has failed engulfing, H1 has demand zone broke and has bearish engulfing.
Entry :
I will take entry according to H1 TF, entry point is 2639 above the bearish engulfing. Stop loss 2661 and target is 2561.
XAUUSD - sells in play?Here is our in-depth view and update on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair updated from the previous one.
Last time, we took a step back and took a look at XAUUSD from a bigger perspective (H4 time-frame). We are still using H4 to show you the sells we have in play.
XAUUSD is currently trading at around 2670s .
If you remember our previous long-term view on OANDA:XAUUSD you should remember that after hitting the top of the area at around 2714 (a bit higher) we were automatically looking for sells. We are currently holding a few sell positions at 2680s as the price failed to break higher.
Personal opinion:
The direction for now is bearish in our opinion. We are looking for sells and we do believe gold could see some massive sell-offs in December before the year of 2024 ends.
KEY NOTES
- XAUUSD completed the predicted long-term move to the upside.
- XAUUSD sells were called at the top of the area (2714).
- XAUUSD failed to break higher and is following the long-term analysis.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
Gold Analysis==>>PumpingToday, U.S. Retail Sales figures were released. Retail sales increased by 0.7% , surpassing the forecast of 0.6% . However, Core Retail Sales rose by only 0.2% , below the anticipated 0.4% .
These figures indicate continued strength in U.S. consumer spending, which can lead to a stronger U.S. dollar ( TVC:DXY ) . A stronger dollar typically exerts downward pressure on gold prices, as gold is priced in dollars, making it more expensive for international investors when the dollar appreciates.
However, it's important to note that multiple factors influence gold prices, including upcoming Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates and global economic conditions.
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Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) continued to fall as I expected and is currently moving through the Support zone($2,642-$2,620) and the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
According to Elliott's wave theory , Gold seems to be completing wave 5 .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys.
I expect Gold to start rising again from the PRZ and Support lines and attack the Resistance lines .
⚠️Note: If Gold breaks the Support zone($2,642-$2,620), we can expect more dumps.⚠️
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
12.19 Gold interest rate decision determines direction!How to participate in the short-term gold today?
From the daily chart of gold, it is a weak bearish pattern. The upper 2662 is the resonance pressure of the daily and hourly lines. This position has been prompted in recent days. The hourly chart shows that 2651 is the hourly annual line level pressure. This position also suppressed the retracement in the early trading. The hourly BOLL is slowly closing. The data is approaching. The 1-hour and 30-minute charts are also in a volatile pattern. So today's morning trading will not see a big market outbreak. Pay attention to the 2640/38 area below to see a volatile rebound of 2651-2662. When the price reaches 2662, you can first participate in the retracement. Of course, these are all before the data is released. After the data is released, you can still treat it as a shock between 2706-2600.
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Same as yesterday we are still playing within the retracement range and consolidating before FOMC.
2628 weighted level is still holding support and remains open and failure to lock below with ema5 will see a bounce from this level. However, EMA5 cross and lock below this level and we are likely to see the swing range open.
We have FOMC release in 45 minutes so need to keep this in mind for the non organic movement that will need to settle down for the levels to start respecting.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2666
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2666 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2682
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2682 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2697
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2697 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2719
BEARISH TARGETS
2645 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2645 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2628
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2628 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2606 - 2586
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
12.18 Gold tests low and waits for interest rate cutYesterday, the gold market opened at 2652.6 in the morning. After that, the market rose to 2658.9. After that, the market continued to fall under pressure. The daily line reached 2632.7 at the lowest point. After that, the market was slightly pulled up by the support of the 50 mark of the Fibonacci in this round of upward movement. The daily line finally closed at 2646.2. After that, the market closed in a hammer pattern with a long lower shadow. After this pattern ended, the daily line constructed a rubbing signal. Against the background of the Fed's interest rate cut tomorrow morning, today's retracement layout is long.
Intraday short-term operation suggestions:
BUY: 2640 Defense 35 30
$: 55 62 68
The economy is looking to the FedThe Fed has started its two-day policy meeting and is expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points. However, the focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot, which provide guidance for interest rates in 2025.
While US Treasury yields and real yields both edged lower, the US dollar remained steady. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.379%, while the DXY index rose 0.07% to 107.01.
On the technical front, gold prices maintain their long-term uptrend but are under pressure in the short term. The key support level now is $2,600/ounce, which corresponds to the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). A break of this level could send prices lower to $2,531 – the August 20 high. Conversely, if the price breaks above $2,650, the next target will be $2,670 (50-day SMA), and then $2,700.
In addition to the Fed’s decision, investors are awaiting the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to gauge the future direction of policy. Signs that the incoming Trump administration may push for expansionary fiscal policy have raised expectations of a change in the Fed’s stance in the near term.
Trend analysis and strategy, continue to look at reboundGold bottomed out and rebounded on the daily line, MA10/7-day moving averages were flat at 2661/70, and the RSI indicator was running at the 50 value of the middle axis. The short-term four-hour chart bottomed out and rebounded, and the Bollinger Band lower track 2630 was supported to a certain extent. The hourly moving average golden cross opened upward, and the RSI indicator bottom diverged and stood above the middle axis. The callback during today's trading day is still mainly for low-price longs, and then consider selling.
After yesterday's decline, gold continued to return to volatility. After today, the NY market will usher in the Fed's interest rate decision, so gold will most likely continue to fluctuate before the Fed's interest rate decision, and then wait for the Fed's interest rate decision to decide the winner.
The 1-hour moving average of gold is still in a short position. The gold rebound still focuses on the resistance near the last high of 2667 and continues to see a volatile decline. Gold rebounds above 2660 and can continue to be short. Pay attention to the 2633 first-line support below. Gold fluctuates in this range and waits for the Fed's interest rate decision before choosing a direction.
First support: 2640, second support: 2633, third support: 2615
First resistance: 2658, second resistance: 2667, third resistance: 2678
Trading strategy:
Before the US interest rate decision, sell high and buy low in the range of 2633~2667