Close to A Bottom in December Corn? After scoring a new contract low early in Tuesday’s trade, December corn futures managed to stage a late-session rally to close in positive territory. Moreover, the contract managed to close above trendline resistance that’s been in place dating back to June 20th.
Price action on Wednesday served as a continuation of the late-session strength, with the contract closing 6 cents higher to close at 482 ¼ - marking a second consecutive close above trendline resistance. Prices have clung to the trendline very tightly over the last 8 trading sessions, and the previous two sessions are the first instances of prices closing above trendline resistance.
So the question now becomes, are we close to a bottom in the December corn contract? Looking at price history and seasonal tendencies, we can see that the December corn contract typically bottoms out between the final week of September and into the first couple of weeks of October, before ultimately staging a moderate rally in late October.
www.seasonalgo.com
If we are indeed attempting to put in an intermediate bottom, we can expect a support/resistance flip. Meaning, that previous trendline resistance should now act as trendline support. In other words, if prices falter in the coming days, and test the trendline, we should likely see bulls come to defend the trendline.
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Grainstrading
WEAT- Wheat ETF at buy point LONGWEAT the Wheat EFT has been volatile of late due to the Bakc Sea shipping deal
falling apart when Russia refused to renew it. Brazil has been trying to increase
whet exports to pick up from the fall off of Ukrainian shipments to Africa and others.
On the 4H chart, WEAT has fallen 15% from the double tops of July demonstrating
the high volatility in what is typically a slow-moving commodity. WEAT is now
5% above the support trendline and about 14% below the horizontal resistance of
those double tops. This is a favorable r:R ratio. I will go long here assuming there
is now breakthrough in the near future with the resumption of the Black Sea grain
deal to impact the supply-demand imbalance and destabilize the price rise. I will
look into a call option trade as well.
CORN rises off a pivot LONGCORN, the ETF tracking spot corn and corn futures has ended its down trend on
the 15 minute chart. The pivot is not a surprise given the issues related to wheat
in the Black Sea shipping with the Ukraine war escalating onto the sea and the
grain export deal falling apart. The Price Momentum Oscillator which might be
considered a leading indicator is showing bullish divergence.Volatility is steady
and without spikes. The bias here is for bullish momentum to more forward
with increasing amplitude given the fundamental geopolitical context.
I will buy CORN long and may enter a position on the futures markets.