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USDCAD Weak Bear!Kinda feels like the bear has no much strength to even drag this pair further deeper. We have seen good gains on the comdolls from the beginning day of the week. Equity market did raise well and mostly TVC:DJI but talking back to comdolls at the moment bearish are weakening. Feels like there could be more probabilities for upside rather than the downside as long as this contagious virus doesn't stop pressurizing the world creating a further financial crisis that will not be ok thing for a currency like a loonie.
Long
by jessi061
5
ridethepig | Dollar FocusUntil this advanced coronavirus move was played, the flow had been relatively straight-forward, a smooth transition of the Titanic turning was more an ideal than reality. This corresponds to the process I have remarked on, that the US face a choice between a weaker USD or a weaker Equity market. The lack of restraint from Powell gives way to a mechanical swing towards the 74 handle. So much for the strategic and theoretical manoeuvre when a full blown demand and supply shock storms into play. The practical value of the spike in USD makes things a lot easier to trade in US 2's 5's curve as you can see the recession is not a matter of if but when: The Longer term flows here will carry us towards 50 over a 5 wave sequence, those who follow waves will know the technical target is now exposed: Consumer Staples is showing signs of topping: While Claims show signs of forming a floor: Naturally it is all very well to aim for the 75 handle in DXY, driving buyers all the way back, but one must not go so far as to go overboard and intoxicate our strategic execution. As a whole, the defence is being carried out with insufficient knowledge as US virus numbers are only going to tick higher. Now comes a breakthrough, Fed are funding the Whitehouse which logically comes from having a mandate to keep Equities higher. There is nowhere to hide, a really difficult environment to trade you will say. Excellent understanding of the macro flows and drivers in play are required. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the comments with your charts and questions below!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
4
EURUSD Probabilities Of RetracementIt can be a retracement finally after a long swing upward couple of days past due to the US under pressure from Covid-19. This might be changing positively slowly as the representative of the state is focusing on the comeback against the pandemic and they have already run much stimulus program for their economy prevention. Can't say it may be fully reversal but there could be some side effect on the currency after they have taken some control over the outbreak which may temporarily change the market sentiment.
Short
by jessi061
5
ridethepig | Dollar Macro MapA very busy few weeks in markets, finally @ridethepig with some spare time for a whole round of chart updates across the FX board and beyond. On the monetary side, a whole new raft of FED cutting expectations entered the room via coronavirus impact leg on Equities and forced the FED into a surprise -50bps cut. Markets are sticking the knife in and keeping more cuts in March also on the table while across the Atlantic the ECB are admitting defeat with only -10bps of room (btw will not make any difference!). You can see the divergence in monetary policy between ECB and FED ... FED has room to continue cutting while ECB has its rear up against the wall. The USD breakout of this channel is negating the previous uptrend that was intact. This is the leg we have been tracking together here for some months now, with the resulting trigger from Covid-19 demand and supply shock. The monthly chart is a lot cleared and easier to swing: On the technical map, importantly price failed to breach the highs via the Covid-19 short-circuit after testing 99.9x before sellers defended. Steel Support 93.8x <=> Strong Support 95.8x (we are currently here) <=> Soft Support 96.7x <=> S/R FLIP <=> Soft Resistance 97.83x <=> Strong Resistance 98.8x <=> Steel Resistance 99.9x Good luck all those in USD pairs, I have a round of important G10 and EMFX ideas coming this weekend. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and comments... jump into the conversation below with your charts, questions and views!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
6
Exotic Drawback Setup: USD/MXN ShortWe're going exotic for this one! I am looking for a drawback setup here and I've drawn my entry at a break of previous price structure support. My overall target will be the flat Kijun sen that is forming, and I've marked up some price structure to targets to aim for as well. Since this is only slightly more than a 2x risk to reward, I'll be taking a smaller risk trade for this one. If we fail to break support, this setup will become invalidated.
Short
by The808Trader
USDJPY Beyond Technical Analysis: Hypothetical PlanI was focused a lot in yen performance throughout the starting day of the week when it posted out weak GDP after then some gloomy industrial reports I got hooked with the yen so far. Us had some report good some bad but till now it hadn't posted any top tier reports which could change the bullish sentiment flow of greenback but now I assume it's too much for this pair to reach this high level taking concern to its daily average true range which it is close enough and bulls are already tired to push this pair forward. Hypothetically talking in my opinion greenback took a lot of advantage from yen weakness throughout the start of the week. Knowing that the US most of the highlighted reports like inflation, some FOMC members speech, housing reports will be printed within some hours so who knows it can also be a "Pump and dump" scenario if the US has some gloomy outlook over those highlighted reports. All those earlier pumps can just end up being an overvalued price that traders priced in before knowing the actual outcome of reports from the US. They had bets on greenback being optimistic on it and at this point hypothetically talking the one who priced in may make a double target which I mean by closing the long position he/she had if the US news-bad release (profit taking) and then adding back another short position just to ride the possible new fresh downside which technically it's already an overbought as daily ATR has reached its limit 43pips. This is not a guaranteed investment I am taking some risk self on it just to play how this scenario works out and kept my risk very low. Those who are inspired by the plan and wish to follow the trade idea don't forget to manage position sizing properly to minimize any big unexpected risk.
Short
by jessi061