The World of ETFsIn the vast landscape of investments, Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) stand as a unique bridge, merging the best of both stocks and mutual funds. While traditional managed funds pool investors' money into assets managed by professionals, ETFs introduce a compelling twist, allowing for the flexibility of stock trading.
Unlike managed funds, ETFs are akin to stocks, enabling investors to buy and sell them at any time during market hours . This accessibility aligns ETFs more closely with the dynamic nature of stocks, catering to the on-demand needs of modern investors.
However, just like any investment, ETFs come with their nuances and risks. Diversification, often touted as an investment safety net, does mitigate some risks but can't fully shield against market volatility.
Different ETFs carry varying levels of risk, making understanding these distinctions vital before investing. Additionally, the past performance of ETFs isn't always a reliable indicator of future results, underlining the importance of comprehensive research and sound decision-making.
Bitcoin ETFs: The Gateway to Crypto Investments
In recent years, the advent of Bitcoin ETFs has added an intriguing chapter to the investment narrative. These financial instruments enable investors to engage with Bitcoin's price movements without directly owning the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin ETFs, traded on conventional stock exchanges, provide an accessible avenue for traditional investors to venture into the crypto sphere.
Within the realm of Bitcoin ETFs, there are two primary types: spot and futures-based ETFs:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs offer direct exposure to Bitcoin's real-time market price, involving the actual cryptocurrency.
On the other hand, futures-based ETFs utilize Bitcoin futures contracts, enabling speculation on the asset's future price without owning the underlying asset.
The interest in Bitcoin ETFs can be attributed to several factors. First and foremost, they offer unparalleled ease of access. Trading on mainstream stock exchanges simplifies the process, allowing investors to leverage existing brokerage accounts without delving into the complexities of crypto exchanges.
Moreover, the regulatory oversight accompanying ETFs adds a layer of security, easing concerns related to fraud and market manipulation prevalent in unregulated crypto markets.
Additionally, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs signifies a significant shift, indicating the integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional financial systems.
While the United States has yet to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF, several Bitcoin futures-linked ETFs have gained regulatory approval , broadening investment horizons.
Beyond Bitcoin: Exploring the Crypto ETF Spectrum
While Bitcoin has seized the spotlight, the crypto ETF landscape is not confined to it alone. Outside the United States, various Cryptocurrency Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) encompass a spectrum of digital assets beyond Bitcoin. These offerings enable diversification within the digital asset space, catering to investors keen on exploring a range of cryptocurrencies.
In the United States, ETFs linked to cryptocurrencies like Ether also exist, albeit in the futures-related domain. Although spot-based crypto ETFs are yet to make their debut, the evolving regulatory landscape and market demand may pave the way for these in the future.
As the financial world continues its digital transformation, understanding ETFs and their crypto counterparts becomes paramount. By bridging the gap between traditional stocks and the dynamic crypto sphere, ETFs empower investors with newfound opportunities and avenues for portfolio growth.
Stay tuned for the evolving of crypto ETFs, where the world of investments meets the future of finance.
Growth
Will Companies Like Square (Block) Ever Make a Comeback?Ah yes... I remember the good ol' days of Square (now known as Block). It was one my best investments in my short career as a trader/investor. Way back when, the story was quite obvious: they had created the best solution for small businesses to sell goods & services either in a store or online.
It was fast and effortless.
The rise of Block, and subsequent drop, has been something to marvel at. I had sold my position many moons ago, but it's remained on my watchlist because I like the company and what it stands for.
Some people have given it a very hard time for its rebranding to Block, its new logo, and mission. However, considering that they are payment experts, I think it's notable and worth watching.
Nevertheless, can the stock really make a comeback? The chart is horrendous.
One factor contributing to this downward trend is the significant acquisition of Afterpay, which required a substantial amount of cash and stock, impacting Block's balance sheet. I still have NO idea why they paid this much to acquire an average company.
I guess the hype and FOMO of BNPL really got to them.
In August 2021, Block announced its intent to acquire Afterpay, a prominent "buy now, pay later" fintech company. I think the story made sense - it gave them the capability to add their own credit network. However, the sheer size of the transaction was just bonkers.
Block currently has a market cap of $28 billion. BUT, they acquired AfterPay for $29 billion! Ouch... the company is now worth less than their recent buyout.
It's important to note that such significant acquisitions often take time to yield the intended benefits. The share price decline may be partially attributed to investor impatience and a lack of immediate clarity on how Block plans to integrate Afterpay into its broader ecosystem.
The question is simple: will AfterPay ever yield the payout that Block intended it to have? If the answer is anything but "yes - it's happening" there's no reason to trade or invest in this any further. HOWEVER, if there are glimpses that show, just maybe, Block made a smart acquisition, adding a new layer to their payment network that is only just starting, then the return to highs is not far-fetched at all.
The trade is simple: watch to see how Block continues to integrate AfterPay, and, it is starts to work, it's worth evaluating further over 1-3 year comeback in share price.
Modeling a shift in SRAS and AD over the past year, I think. I used the U.S PCE YoY as the base, I then overlaid the M1 YoY and Real GDP YoY. I used the beginning of this years as a reference point as that is roughly when the fed began increasing interest rates.
As the price level declines demonstrated by a decline in the money supply and PCE YoY declining
Real GDP YoY is seen increasing
To my understanding this visualizes how SRAS and AD have shifted to the left over the past year
Saudi Aramco Stock on Tadawul ExchangeSaudi Aramco made more than 94,5 billions in profits this year. This is a good order to win the situation. After last year losses this ship is going to deliver. As you can see on the presented chart, we have prepared more complex strategy for this Asset. Alpha+Beta is when interests of passive and active managers follow the same road. Sigma stayed the same. Theta, also the same. Omega+Kappa is when interests of minority investors are divided by conflict of interests for some reason. Why we think this is truth, and not a hogwash? Well, truth in numbers, try to not associate yourself with this, calculate it yourself. Good luck with Saudi Aramco Stock, investors.
Gala's All Time High Return Gain %Just so you long term fan boys can see it.
If you long now and set an alert at Gala's all time high, you could be looking at 3900% gain.
Say $1000 into $39,000.
Say $5000 into $200,000.
Of course no one knows the future.
I just like the long term in clear view of it's all time high.
Happy trading.
Not financial advice.
Lumn in Accumulation Phase ?Despite all the negative news around LUMN, negative cash flow, negative EBITDA and finally negative outlook from market analysts, LUMN remains a pioneer in data infrastructure and fiber provider in the US market + the market cap ($1.5B) is far below it is total equity fair value ( MUN:10B ).
in other words, the fair price to the current situation is around 7 time the current stock price with negative outlook, this can be reduced by 50% which means 3,5 * 1,4 == around $5. (this is my personal analysis taking the worst financials case of LUMN for the next 4 quarters).
The weekly and monthly charts show continues sell off with possible accumulation phase just started, in the coming months this can be confirmed if we see price stabilization around $1 and volume remains high.
As per Fintel data, the institutional ownership percentage is dropping for the (at least) second quarter in a row.
This is an opportunity to target 2026/2027 at least, less then 5% of the capital to be allocated.
return may exceed 1000% (not guaranteed in shorter term), loss of 100% is highly possible if the new CEO fails to save the company + worst debt with higher yields.
Position open, target price $10.
Good luck everyone :)
UBER - ATH likely in 2024
I must admit despite all the TA I have tried with this name, profit has eluded me because most upward action has bee around ER. I have tried not hold big positions into ER, but this name has proved me wrong last three times.
Bounced off of 60 VMA nicely an caught fire. another test of 45 or flag above would set this up nicely for 60.
despite sluggish volume, this has help up really well. Suggests institutional ownership is high and when market conditions improve, this is likely to blast off.
No position
XTZ 4 the Fall Smart money Risk contraction meaning no guarantee to 85 cents; it usually surpasses it. Swing H/L with bullish contraction which now shows a completed uptrend because it’s reached first supply zone until further notice to reach top supply zone. 64 pips. Smart money magnet line means trend intends to stay sometimes within that area based on smart money momentum.
TARGET MET
DNOPY discounted on strong performanceDNOPY is my newest OTC long-term stocks. The company has a great organic expansion plan for their grocery stores in Poland. They only expand when a store has around 5000 individual customers, this allows them to avoid taking on huge debt by expanding appropriately instead of aggressively. They have strong financials in general and a logical management team. I like to have single stock exposure to international areas that have familiar economies. Poland does have higher inflation than America currently but the currency risk should be limited as the inflation seems to be dropping. The stock has a decent pull back recently allowing an opportunity for those who are interested.
Halfway thereWe're halfway through the year of 2023. Mega Cap earnings season begins in July. The 8 largest companies by market capitalization are AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, BRK.B, META. Here's an 8 split frame, 6 month chart with financial data.
AAPL 3.05 T
+49% YTD
Earnings 8/3/23
MSFT 2.53 T
+42% YTD
Earnings 7/25/23
GOOGL 1.53 T
+36% YTD
Earnings 7/25/23
AMZN 1.34 T
+55% YTD
Earnings 7/27/23
NVDA 1.04 T
+189% YTD
Earnings 8/23/23
TSLA 830 B
+113% YTD
Earnings 8/19/23
BRK.B 745 B
+10% YTD
Earnings 8/7/23
META 735 B
+138% YTD
Earnings 7/26/23
Revenue = The total amount of money brought in by a company's operations, measured over a set amount of time.
EPS = Is calculated by subtracting any preferred dividends from a company's net income and dividing that amount by the number of shares outstanding.
PE = The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its per-share earnings.
PB = The Price-to-book value (P/B) is the ratio of the market value of a company's shares (share price) over its book value of equity.
PS = The price-to-sales P/S ratio is calculated by dividing the stock price by the underlying company's sales per share.
FCF = Free cash flow (FCF) represents the cash that a company generates after accounting for cash outflows to support operations and maintain its capital assets.
Cash to debt ratio = The cash flow-to-debt ratio is the ratio of a company's cash flow from operations to its total debt. A ratio of 1 or greater is best, whereas a ratio of less than 1 shows that a firm isn't generating sufficient cash flow to meet its debt obligations.
PEG ratio = The price/earnings to growth ratio (PEG ratio) is a stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divided by the growth rate of its earnings for a specified time period. Generally, a PEG below 1 means a stock is undervalued.
Current ratio = The current ratio is Current Assets divided by Current Liabilities. It's a liquidity ratio that measures a company's ability to pay short-term obligations or those due within one year. In general, a current ratio of 2 or higher is considered good, and anything lower than 2 is a cause for concern.
Snap: Is the Nightmare Finally Ending?Snap has struggled since growth stocks started crumbling two years ago, but now some traders may see chances of a recovery.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the potential basing pattern that began in August. Its bottom was slightly above the May trough. That could suggest that selling pressure is waning in the social-media stock.
Second are the pair of high-volume candles on October 16 and 25. The first came after The Verge reported that SNAP was setting ambitious internal targets for monetization and engagement. The second followed better-than-expected quarterly results.
At that time, investors were nervous about global tensions hurting growth. But if those worries fade, traders could target the third pattern: a large bearish gap that followed weak quarterly results in July.
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Supply Shock 2.0 - Before March 2024 Bitcoin[
Taking a break on this, but still traditional finance institutions refuse to release the data they have on the supply situation on Bitcoin meaning there's a big multiplier on every $1 that enters Bitcoin.
I always do Fundamentals on-chain before drawing macro trends on anything, Bitcoin would have to be the best asset for this as we can see everything on-chain unlike Gold or Stocks and Bonds to the exact unit.
Bitcoin cannot I repeat Bitcoin cannot remain under $200,000 if less than 2% of institutions allocate to Bitcoin. The supply is simply just not there.
ON-CHAIN DATA AS OF POST
Bitcoin: Total Supply Held by Long-Term Holders
14,850,716 BTC (Lost and holders who will not sell)
Bitcoin: Balance in Miner Wallets - All Miners
1,830,337 BTC
Bitcoin: Balance on Exchanges (Total) - All Exchanges
2,318,356 BTC
(I believe a lot of this balance is already allocated to the Spot ETF's so again it will be moved once launched and not sold)
End
SOL->AVAX Rotation trade, Point of maximum opportunityAVAX is now in the historic low of its range vs SOL and I've no information that Solana has somehow defeated Avalanche in terms of its value proposition, so it would make complete sense for there to be a rotation between the two platform tokens.
If you need fundamentals to drive a bullish position on AVAX, look at forthcoming blockchain games Shrapnel and Off the Grid, both very likely to be the biggest games in Web 3.0, also Avalanche appear to be courting RWAs and are said to appear in every conversation about asset tokenisation between the Big 4, see also Bank of America report on this.
All looking very good for Avalanche.
My Favorite AI Play - Bandwidth (BAND)Bandwidth (BAND) is my favorite AI play right now.
The chart looks really bad! I get it. Today, it trades for below even its IPO price.
But the reason why I think it's an AI play ready to double, possibly triple, is a fundamental reason that I'll explain in this post.
First of all, let me state something very interesting about Bandwidth - today it's one of the worst performing stocks in the entire market since 2020 and 2021. I don't entirely know why that's the case, but I do think the market has overreacted.
Let me now get the bad news out of the way: when BAND's stock was flying high, management took out several large loans to expand faster and grow globally. Those gains are starting to be realized, but it's key to mention this as the debt profile is still somewhat high. The question now is: can they keep paying it off? They're on target to have little to no debt within the next few years.
Okay, so why is Bandwidth an AI play? To understand this you need to know that Bandwidth is essentially the connector for data that is transmitted over the web. Bandwidth's platform helps data, messages, voice calls, video calls, email, and more travel from Point A to Point B.
For example, when you make a call on Zoom or even Slack or Google Hangouts, it's highly likely your call is being routed over Bandwith's network. The point is, Bandwidth is the toll keeper, the train conductor, for most modern communications that are triggered at scale.
So how does AI fit into this?
That's where this gets good. All of these AI companies NEED a company to help deliver the information to their end consumer. If OpenAI creates a chatbot that works on text message or sends push notifications or can even speak over calls, Bandwidth will most likely be the resource that delivers that information from business to consumer.
What's even more interesting is call centers and the future of talking to call centers to get help or support. In one scenario, you upload all your most frequently asked questions, pair it with an AI service, and then let users call that AI service over the Bandwidth network and now an AI customer support agent is solving issues at scale.
This is just one example.
I could go on and on.
But that's my play!
I own a little Bandwidth and will be watching closely in the coming years.
Supertrend + Hashribbons Showing a Long Term Trend for BTCIn this Video we discuss all the criteria I'm looking at right now for a bitcoin long position.
This includes:
- Hash ribbons smashing all time highs again after looking fairly weak a few days ago.
- Supertrend AI Indicator looking like it's giving a decent trending signal after the last few months of sideways action and traps.
- VWATR Bands expecting a retest/reclaim of the line after losing it(And why).
- And general structure looking a lot better for bitcoin.
Thanks and have a great day :)
Market Meltdown: Wall Street's Shocking Symphony Unveiled!In the heart of financial dynamics, where numbers narrate tales and markets hum a melody, we stand on the cusp of a riveting chapter. The surge in bond yields, the resonance of conflict in Gaza, and the corporate crescendos echo through Wall Street, crafting a narrative that captivates and challenges.
As we step into this unfolding saga, each market movement becomes a note in a symphony—a symphony where every rise in bond yields, every geopolitical tremor, and every corporate revelation plays a crucial role. Join me as we unravel the Overture of Wall Street, decoding the melodies that shape the financial landscape and beckon us into the intriguing world of global finance.
Bond Yields Surge: Unraveling the Threads of Economic Sentiment
The recent surge in the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, cresting above 4.9%, serves as a seismic event with far-reaching implications. Traditionally, higher yields spell caution for equity markets, diminishing the allure of stocks in comparison to the safety of fixed-income assets. The market's reaction, characterized by a 1.3% dip in the S&P 500, underscores the anxiety stemming from heightened borrowing costs for both corporations and households.
This surge in bond yields is not merely a statistical blip; it's a harbinger of a delicate dance between the Federal Reserve and the broader economic landscape. The specter of swelling U.S. debt looms large, and as Bloomberg Economics warns, the increase in yields could act as a drag on economic growth, akin to the impact of a Fed rate hike.
Geopolitical Turmoil: A Catalyst for Market Volatility
The geopolitical tableau adds a layer of complexity, with the Gaza conflict acting as a catalyst. The deadly explosion at a Gaza hospital and the subsequent cancellation of a summit with Arab leaders have injected fresh uncertainties into the market psyche. Beyond the tragic human toll, the conflict reverberates through financial markets, notably elevating oil prices.
Oil, the lifeblood of economies, rose nearly 2% to $91.50 a barrel. The Israel-Hamas conflict and optimistic outlooks for Chinese demand became twin engines propelling oil's ascent. Investors, already grappling with bond yield tremors, now face the added challenge of navigating an energy market rife with geopolitical uncertainties.
Corporate Performance: A Tapestry of Triumphs and Tribulations
Against this backdrop, corporate performances play a pivotal role in shaping market trajectories. Morgan Stanley's stock stumbled after reporting a drop in quarterly net income, emblematic of challenges within the financial sector. Simultaneously, Procter & Gamble's shares surged as the company reported a quarterly profit boost, underlining the impact of strategic pricing decisions in an inflationary environment.
The corporate stage is set, with companies wielding the power to either fortify or erode market confidence. In the case of United Airlines, a 7% early decline in shares following a cut in year-end earnings forecasts exemplifies the tightrope walked by companies in a tumultuous market environment.
Market Performance: A Symphony of Red and Green
As the final notes of the market day resonated, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Industrials bore the weight of a 1.3%, 1.6%, and 1% decline, respectively. The Russell 2000, reflecting smaller companies, faced a more substantial 2.1% dip. This symphony of red underscores the impact of mixed corporate reports and the tightening grip of rising Treasury yields.
The decline is not confined to domestic shores; the MSCI World index echoes the sentiment, falling in tandem with its U.S. counterparts. The markets, in their collective wisdom, are sending signals of caution, reacting to the interplay of global and domestic variables.
Deciphering the Market's Sonnet
In conclusion, Wall Street's current state is akin to a sonnet, weaving together verses of bond yield surges, geopolitical tumult, and corporate performances. Each stanza contributes to the larger narrative of market sentiment, reflecting the delicate balance between risk and reward. Investors must read between the lines, understanding that every rise in bond yields, every geopolitical tremor, and every corporate report shapes the verses of the market's sonnet.
As we navigate these turbulent waters, an agile and discerning approach is paramount. The future remains unwritten, and while challenges abound, opportunities await those who can decipher the intricate melodies emanating from Wall Street's financial symphony.
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) October 2023 to April 2024
Neutral to Long: The company's fundamentals and dividend history are strong, suggesting a potential long position. However, the recent underperformance (negative YTD return) and the volatility might be a concern, which introduces some caution, hence the neutral stance.
Fundamentals:
Market Cap: $110.91 billion
Operating Margin (TTM): 13.43%
EPS (Earnings Per Share): $27.3
PE Ratio: 16.13
Revenue (TTM): $67.39 billion
Quarterly Revenue Growth YoY: 8.1%
Profit Margin: 10.48%
Return on Equity (TTM): 68.31%
Recent Earnings:
Q3 2023: Estimated EPS was $6.67 (actual EPS not yet reported).
Q2 2023: Estimated EPS was $6.45, and the actual EPS was $6.63, resulting in a positive surprise of 2.79%.
Q1 2023: Estimated EPS was $6.06, and the actual EPS was $6.61, resulting in a positive surprise of 9.08%.
Q4 2022: Estimated EPS was $7.39, and the actual EPS was $7.4, resulting in a slight positive surprise of 0.14%.
Technical Indicators:
5-Year Return: 9.02%
10-Year Return: 16.31%
1-Year Return: 13.94%
YTD Return: -7.52%
Dividend Yield: 2.72%
Volatility (1Y): 21.49%
Sharpe Ratio: 0.7561
Dividends & Splits:
Last Dividend Date: December 29, 2023
Forward Annual Dividend Yield: 2.86%
Forward Annual Dividend Rate: $12.6
Last Split: 2:1 on January 4, 1999
Analysis:
Lockheed Martin has shown consistent growth in its revenue, with a YoY quarterly revenue growth of 8.1%. The company's earnings have been positive, with recent quarters showing a positive surprise in EPS compared to estimates. The company's fundamentals, such as the operating margin and profit margin, are robust. The PE ratio is at a moderate level, indicating that the stock might be reasonably priced. The company has a strong dividend history, which is a positive sign for income-focused investors.
However, the YTD return is negative, indicating some recent underperformance. The volatility is also relatively high, which might be a concern for risk-averse investors.
In conclusion, Lockheed Martin appears to be a fundamentally strong company with consistent growth and a good dividend history. However, potential investors should be cautious about the recent underperformance and consider the company's volatility before making an investment decision.
Please note that this analysis is based on historical data and does not guarantee future performance. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Foxconn and Nvidia are building 'AI factories'Nvidia and Foxconn are working together to build so-called "AI factories," a new class of data centers that promise to provide supercomputing powers to accelerate the development of self-driving cars, autonomous machines and industrial robots.
Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang and Foxconn chairman and CEO Young Liu announced the collaboration at Hon Hai Tech Day in Taiwan on Tuesday. The AI factory is based off an Nvidia GPU computing infrastructure that will be built to process, refine and transform vast amounts of data into valuable AI models and information.
"We're building this entire end-to-end system where on the one hand, you're building this advanced EV car...with an AI brain inside that allows it to interact with drivers and interact with passengers, as well as autonomously drive, complemented by an AI factory that develops a software for this car," said Huang onstage at the event. "This car will go through life experience and collect more data. The data will go to the AI factory, where the AI factory will improve the software and update the entire AI fleet."
The AI factory tie-up builds off a partnership between Nvidia and Foxconn announced in January to develop autonomous vehicle platforms. That agreement involved Foxconn becoming a primary supplier of electronic control units (ECUs) for automakers, which will be built with Nvidia's Drive Orin system-on-a-chip (SoC), a supercomputing AI platform that supports autonomous driving functions. On Tuesday, Foxconn also committed to manufacturing ECUs with Drive Thor, Nvidia's next-gen SoC, after production starts in 2025.
As part of that partnership, Foxconn -- which has been steadily unveiling off-the-shelf EV platforms for automakers to purchase -- said the vehicles it makes as a contract manufacturer will be built with Nvidia's Drive Hyperion 9 platform, which includes not only Drive Thor, but also a suite of sensors like cameras, radar, lidar and ultrasonic that are necessary for self-driving capabilities.
Foxconn is already contracted to build EVs for Fisker, even as it gets sued by its erstwhile partner Lordstown Motors. The automaker will need scale in order to make its AI factories viable, especially if it's going to compete with Tesla.
Pfizer's (PFE) Ulcerative Colitis Pill Etrasimod Gets FDA NodPfizer PFE announced that the FDA has granted approval to its oral, once-daily pill called etrasimod to treat moderately-to-severely active ulcerative colitis (UC). The oral, once-daily, selective sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) receptor modulator will be marketed by the brand name of Velsipity (2 mg dose).
The approval for etrasimod was based on data from two pivotal phase III studies, ELEVATE UC 52 and ELEVATE 12. These studies evaluated the safety and efficacy of a daily 2mg dose of oral etrasimod in UC patients who had failed treatment with a JAK inhibitor. Both studies achieved their primary endpoint of clinical remission over placebo and all key secondary endpoints.
An application seeking the approval of etrasimod is also under review in the EU, with a decision from the European Medicines Agency anticipated in first-half 2024.
Velsipity (etrasimod) was added to Pfizer’s inflammation and immunology portfolio with the March 2022 acquisition of Arena Pharmaceuticals.
The oral, once-daily pill for UC, a chronic condition, is an advanced therapy, which, if approved, will offer patients an opportunity to achieve steroid-free remission.
Pfizer’s stock has declined 37.4% so far this year against an increase of 8.5% for the industry.