Logarithmic Prediction of Bitcoin Cycle HighIn this video we use the Tradingview Logarithmic chart and some simple High-to-High and Low-to-Low angle to speculate on where and when Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD may hit its Halvening cycle high and low.
Halvening
Descending channel from the 1 month chart timeframeI just posted a version of this channel on the 3 month chart timeframe, however looking at the month time frame I also found some bullish confluence to confirm this potential channel. A deeper correction now that we have retested the top trendline of this potential channel would not surprise me from here. I arbitrarily put the measured move lines for when we could break up from this channel around May 2024, simply because the halvening occurs in mid to late april so it seemed like a reasonable area to expect us to finally overcome this channel. We’re we to break up from the channel in that exact spot, the measured move for the channel breakout on its own looks like it would take us to 80k. If it was more than just a channel and also a valid bull flag the measured move I get for the bul flag appears to be slightly under 100k. On the 3 month chart the bull flag was slightly over 100k but that may also be because I placed the measured move line arbitrarily earlier than may as I have done for this 1 month chart representation. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. The silver lining here is that if this channel is valid and price is about to flip back to the down trend for a few it is simply another opportunity to accumulate for the upcoming liftoff which is likely to occur post halvening. *not financial advice*
BITCOIN BLUEPRINT
Bitcoin Blueprint for 2024...
Looking at the OVERWATCH, Can see divergences printing on the weekly for peaks and bottoms. Can see the trendshift on each trend apart from the trapped liquidity from the bull trap up at 69k. (yellow dotted line)
Image credit: @bitcoin__apex
Bitcoin Breakout Soon (April-May 2024)I'm fairly certain we are about to have a BTC breakout. Bulls have successfully defended $60k for ~2 weeks now and we are about to move into (arguably) the two most important BTC and crypto months of all 2024. The halving is coming up. ETH ETF decision should bring some volatility- despite approval or not. The past 2 weeks have been an incredibly healthy correction from the run up to the ATH.
Do I think it's possible we break down to $59-$56k? Yes. But in this scenario I imagine it being fueled by FUD and will be bought back up fairly quick. If this scenario plays out, just based on overall current sentiment, I could see investors viewing this as incredibly bullish and we continue on with this cycle's uptrend.
There is a chance we continue to chop/crab for a bit longer- but I would guess that only lasts 1-2 more weeks at best. As we get closer to the Halvening, I find it incredibly unlikely we see a big sell off. This is not an uncommon opinion- I think many reading this would agree with me. Could we go up and see a bit of uncertainty as the Halvening date crosses? Of course. But based on the current trend, sentiment, and overall blockchain/crypto ecosystem, I don't see how we continue downwards through April and May. I see loads of potential in these next two months.
Good luck traders! But even more luck to the HODLers!
What are Cumulus Triangles? 😱 Check out this new development!"Cumulus Triangles" are new Bitcoin chart patterns developed exclusively by The Crypto Weather Channel to help identify the trading range of bitcoin between the start of the first Bull market and the Halving. Have no idea where Bitcoin is going next? We've got you covered, all the way up until the Halving event! Thanks for watching.
LTC on the move!BINANCE:LTCUSDT Update to prior chart which was posted a few months back: So far so good. I am seeing this pump to near $96 in coming weeks, month/s before any strong moves back down.
Good news for careful-traders is that the fractals show a return to $56 level after this pump ends - right in time for the pre-halving dump. As history has shown, each LTC halving (mining difficulty increase) is preceded by a pump/dump testing prior levels, before flying to new highs. Expect LTC to continue leading the alt-coin market, serving as a fine canary for other altcoin moves.
Insofar as fundamental analysis for LTC: it has been around as long as BTC, it has survived, it has suffered ZERO network shutdowns in its decade+ existence, and now features the OPTION of private transactions with MWEB. It should be noted that Mimblewimble is the wildcard for LTC during this crypto season. It could halt its growth due to regulatory demands, or it could make it fly to unknown levels - as a market result of regulatory demands.
Not financial advice.
bitcoin cycles predictionIn 2024 april, During the 4th halving period, the price of Bitcoin will have 61.8 Fibonacci retracement.
Prediction of the weekly Golden Cross zone.
Bitcoin lengthening cycles.
Recently I have saw a lot of posts stating this run is done. Bitcoin is going to $7k. Or a very low number. In this post I’m not even going to speculate on price or up or down in the short term. I’m just curious after seeing the chart here. Peak to peak, from the first run all time high to the second all time high it took Bitcoin 1219 days. From that all time high to the second it took 1491 days. Then from that ATH to the current one we just experienced only 1431 days have passed. Do you really think this run could be over?
Leave your input in the comments.
BTC Halving Cycle Top Analysis 2021 - 2022Here is my unbiased analysis of when the cycle top for the current bull market may peak. Keep in mind I am by no means an expert. The cycle analysis is also a prediction of the dates that this BTC bull run may end. (Not a price prediction) I'm interested to see others opinions on this analysis. Why is it correct or incorrect?
The basic idea in this analysis is that the 2017 bull market lasted roughly 1.44 times longer than the 2013 bull run. By this logic we can project out and assume that the current bull market will last 1.44 times the Length of the 2017 bull run.
2013 - 366 days until cycle top measured from Halvening
2017 - 526 days until cycle top measured from Halvening
2021 (2022) - 757 days until cycle top measured from Halvening
(Disclaimer - Please use risk management. No ones estimates of the cycle tops are accurate. They are all educated guesses however some may be lucky enough to be accurate)
Update on the Bitcoin Halving CycleI've been studying the Halving Cycle of INDEX:BTCUSD for many years (see links below). Everyone seems to have their own version of it so I've drawn up my method up to the current date.
I am going to talk about this in my Livestream Friday with more detail. In the meantime... Do YOU see a pattern?
BTC Log Cycles - Based on HalvingsExperimenting with Bitcoin high time frame log charts, I began to notice some patterns.
Please note: This is a work in progress and by no means financial advice.
Highlighted in yellow are two box areas, the rest is built around them. The similarity appears striking, imo. Does this mean the chart will continue to produce and follow these patterns?
Log charts are generally meant for and used with curved lines. However, when one finds a straight forward geometric pattern between the last 2 major cycles and this one, based on halvings... couldn't help but continue to explore, and hope this is interesting for you too.
I will continue to monitor and update, if this chart and pattern continues to make sense as it unfolds, and will attempt to simplify so it is easier to read. But wanted to post this before going to sleep, and again, this is only a work in progress. Any feedback, questions or suggestions are welcome. Best.
Do Traders Use Logarithmic Charts? - Bitcoin Stock to FlowI was asked on social media if I use logarithmic charts in my trading. The short answer is "no, not tactically for short term trading" but they do have use in analyzing long term exponentially growing instruments when trying to find patterns. One key use of logarithmic chart analysis is for the Bitcoin Stock to Flow model. This model calculates the price of Bitcoin in relation to its supply and decreasing production.
Link to source: medium.com
ORACLE BTC top 300k @ end of 2021 fibbes halving macro fractalThis was da way, is this da way? BTC tops around 300k at the end of 2021 according to macro fibbes halving based trend lines and the cycle macro fractal laid out as a guideline
Bitcoin 4y halving cycles and the S2F modelIncluded the S2F prices on this 4y halving cycles model. Given that the prices overshoot the S2F model we should be expecting prices around 150.000 in this bullrun, however this feels like a long shot. I'd argue that we will definitely see the 50k range this run, but anything above is yet to be seen. What do you think?
In the next cycle the S2F seems to exceed our trend too much which might be the point where the model breaks. The prices of the S2FX model seems to be more likely during this period.
BTC_BITCOIN: BITCOINS BOTTOM IS NEAR $199An inverted head and shoulders near $199 will come much to late for Bitcoin cultists.
Slowly waiting for the breakout zzZzzZzzFed is buying bonds and ETFs at 5 year maturity rate leveraged 10:1 by the treasury
Fed is taking on debts of small cities with population 500k or less
Lending out billions of dollars to EU.
Market is stimulated by ghost money, happy investors happy to spend money on many assets, creating a fomo bubble that will probably end up parabolic and explode.
Out of the ashes, bitcoin pops up, wings flappin, caw caw. Or blockchain was a testrun by the communists and it will go down and be replaced with a governmental approved blockchain coin.(gold as reserve if they are kind)
ETA 1-5 years.
Trump wins, dont want to look bad so he lets Powell print money and buy etfs(which he owns $12m of personal money in Blackrock ETF and $16m with Goldman sachs, yikes), ruin the economy down the line, devaluing dollar, shit goes boom.
OR a second corona wave comes 'online' and we truly have a recession/depression on the line. If so this rally(and SPX) was a dead cat bounce for sure.
50/50 bear/bull on crypto and regular markets atm, if we go above this little pause we are having across the board then its 90% long bias.
BTC: Revisit of MA200 likelyI suspect that BTC's inability to break through 10k decisively means one further big dump towards the weekly MA200, currently sitting at around 6k.
BTC might complete the huge triangle since late 2017 by one last move down to the support line which coincides with the weekly MA200.
However, it could also surprise us and just break through 10k after all in the next days or weeks.
Knowing BTC however, it wants to annoy as many people as possible, and a move to 6k would be definitely annoying to many.
After that, the halving will start kicking in, and become more and more noticeable, therefore pressuring the price upwards, even should the worldwide stockmarket continue to crash.
Also, inflation will rise strongly in the next years, which will also continue to fuel this rally. For me, the scenario to revisit 1200 has become more unlikely, though of course not entirely impossible.
A revisit of 6k on the other hand is indeed possible.
Target for BTC remains at least at 100k in the next years.
MY MONA LISA - ETH 80/20 LONG/SHORT BIASAm I on drugs you might ask and the answer is yes.
But check this out,
ps i only posted it for future reference to see how it played out
BTC Date for new All Time High post 3rd Halving (May-June 2022)This is a simple but powerful idea.
I've calculated some simple proportions for time distances and incremented percentage price, between the 1º and the 2º halvings. Then I related the results for similar proportions between the 2º and the 3º halving. ATH is All Time High(s).
1) DAYS:
First and Second halvings:
525 / 364 ≈ 1.44
Second and Third halvings:
x days for next ATH / 532 ≈ 1.44
x = 1.44 * 525 ≈ 756 days
2) PRICE:
First and Second halvings:
3,854 % / 10,758 % ≈ 0.35
Second and Third halvings:
x % increment / 3,854 % ≈ 0.35
x = 0.35 * 3,854 % ≈ 1,348 % which is an increment to the price of USD 130k
This numbers make sense since the supply has been reduced to half.
Next halvings is suppose to happen on February 29th, 2024. The supply will be reduced them from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block.
