Harmonic Patterns
Strategic Gold Trading in NFP Week: Steady PositioningStrategy Overview: This week, marked by the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data release, is likely to see limited market movement in the initial days (Monday and Tuesday) with price oscillations predominantly within a narrow range. Main volatility is expected between Wednesday and Friday evening. Based on last Friday’s daily chart analysis, gold prices are consolidating within the 2720-2740 range. Accordingly, today and tomorrow’s strategy involves maintaining positions within this range, employing a cautious approach.
Specific Trade Setups:
Enter long positions on gold between the 2725-2728 range
Initiate short positions on gold between the 2737-2739 range
Trading Mindset: Maintain composure, adhere strictly to the strategy, and seek optimal entries to capitalize on potential price swings during NFP week.
NASDAQ Ready for an impressive finish of the year.Nasdaq (NDX) is coming off a 4H Golden Cross, the same kind if formed on November 08 2023, straight after the bottom of the 18-month Channel Up. As the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) has been in strong support of this Channel Up, the index is now on a similar Bullish Leg (blue Channel) as the one that started 1 year ago.
We are at the stage were after a roughly +20% rise from the bottom, the short-term Bullish Megaphone tested and held the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), which based on the January 2024 fractal, could initiate the 2nd Phase of the Bullish Leg.
The previous one peaked on a +31% rise, so we expect the index to reach at lest 22000 by the end of the year.
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New week new play: My next play !Bitcoin is still dancing in this beautiful range. Why is it beautiful? because the rick to reward on a range deviation play like this is very rewarding we are talking 15X to 20X return on investment. Lets see how the price action develops.
For my next play, I am watching for deviation shorts i n the internal and external range, but will also be watching the 4h supply above for a reaction. I am also aware that we could break out of the range and will be watching for continuation plays.
For any of these plays, I want to see a flip in structure on the 10 - 15minute chart or higher before entering. Let’s be ready!
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EURJPY Gears Up for a Fresh Rally Following Brief Pullback**EURJPY's Rally Prepares to Reignite After Brief Pullback Amid Political Shifts in Japan**
As the new week unfolds, JPY pairs have witnessed a robust surge, underscored by significant political developments in Japan that have reshaped investor sentiment. The surge in EURJPY aligns with a broader bullish movement across yen pairs, ignited by an unprecedented shift in Japan’s political landscape. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan recently lost its majority in the lower house, marking a significant political setback after nearly 15 years of dominance. This unexpected shift reflects voter discontent with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's administration, which has faced a series of scandals and controversies. The resultant political uncertainty has left no party in a clear position to take the helm of Japan's economic future, stirring uncertainty in the world's fourth-largest economy.
This political instability has pressured the Japanese yen, creating a tailwind for the EURJPY pair and other JPY crosses. With diminished confidence in Japan’s political leadership, the yen faces bearish pressure as investors brace for potential policy shifts and economic uncertainty. As a result, traders are pivoting toward the euro, supported by the eurozone’s relatively stable outlook in contrast to Japan’s uncertain political path.
**Technical Outlook: Key Levels and Potential Upside for EURJPY**
Technically, EURJPY has shown strong signs of resilience on shorter time frames, with an aggressive breakout recorded on the 60-minute chart. Overnight movements propelled EURJPY to 166.07, representing a decisive upward push and a break from the correction phase. The structure on the hourly chart currently indicates a normal correction, potentially setting the stage for a resumed bullish wave in the sessions to come.
If the bullish momentum continues to build, EURJPY’s path appears clear toward further highs, with immediate targets set at 166.40 and 167.40. These levels are key resistance points, and breaking above them could indicate a sustained upward trajectory, possibly driven by continued yen weakness and euro resilience. Traders should monitor these levels closely, as a break above 167.40 could open the door to new highs.
In summary, EURJPY’s outlook remains bullish, with technical and fundamental factors aligning to suggest potential gains. As Japan navigates an era of political uncertainty, the yen’s safe-haven appeal may be dampened, paving the way for EURJPY’s continued ascent. Investors should be vigilant for further price action around the 166.40 and 167.40 levels, which will provide essential cues on the pair’s next moves in this evolving landscape.
Bitcoin (BTC): Price Still Trading Below Major Resistance ZoneBitcoin had a nice small rollercoaster movement last week, where we did have some kind of rejection from major resistance zone but not strong enough.
Buyers took over that dump and now they are yet again pressuring that major resistance zone (which might indicate to a possible liquidity sweep near $72-73K)
With that being said, we need to monitor closely the candle movement near that resistance and look for any signs of weakness. Either way, it will happen, so now we just have to wait out it!
Swallow Team
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on EURUSD?
This currency pair, after breaking through the support zone, has now reached the trend line and the next support area. It is anticipated that after a minor bullish correction and a pullback to the broken level, it will continue its downward movement toward lower levels.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
EURUSD confirmed the bottom. Low risk buy now.The EURUSD pair has turned sideways since it hit last week the bottom of the 1-year Channel Up and even though it hasn't broken above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) yet, the 1D RSI has given us the strongest buy signal possible.
That is breaking above its MA (yellow trend-line) after rebounding on oversold soil (below 30.00) last Wednesday. This is exactly what happened on the April 16 2024 Low. Even if that is a mid-correction rebound like the February 14 one, as both decline sequences have been of -4.00%, it suggests that we can target at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level until the price resumes the bearish trend.
As a result, we consider this a low risk buy, targeting 1.10000 (below the 0.618 Fib).
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XAUUSD See when to sell and when to buy.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up since the August 05 Low and since last Tuesday, the price action has turned sideways to the point that the 1D RSI is breaking today below its MA trend-line.
This is a break-out consistent with the start of the previous two Accumulation Phases of the pattern, but in order to confirm this we need the RSI to close the day below it. At the same time the price remains bullish as long as it is being supported by the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). If both break, it would mean that the new Higher High of the Channel Up is in and that the best action would be to buy near the bottom again (2,700).
If on the other hand the 4H MA50 holds and the 1D RSI closes above its MA, we will stay bullish, targeting 2800 and then reversing to a sell towards the bottom of the Channel Up.
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USDJPY Uptrend in Focus: Fibonacci & Trendline AlignmentThis chart highlights a bullish setup for USDJPY, with the 0.618 Fibonacci level serving as a key entry point. Additional confluence from a rising trendline strengthens the bullish bias. I'm monitoring price action closely at these levels for confirmation before executing the trade.
BITCOIN All indicators aligned for an incredible 12-month rallyBitcoin (BTCUSD) broke last week above its 7-month Bearish Megaphone pattern, which was essentially the pattern that absorbed via a relief pull-back the incredible rally that the market had since October 2023, fueled at large by the ETF speculation and then launch.
** Bearish Megaphones inside 7-year Channel Up **
This pattern is, as you can see, part of a greater 7-year Channel Up that encompasses the last two Cycles of BTC. Halfway through the 2018 - 2021 Cycle, the market also had a Bearish Megaphone, a little larger, lasting for 12 months before the price broke above it.
** The importance of the 1W MA50 **
That bullish break-out came when the price regained the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support and until the Cycle Top, it was never compromised again. In an amazing display of Cycle symmetry, Bitcoin is also being supported by the 1W MA50 right now (has been since the March 13 2023 weekly candle), in fact it was successfully tested and held 3 times since August 05 2024.
** MACD Bullish Cross **
The Megaphone break-out and the 1W MA50 support aren't the only bullish indicators that point to a heavy price increase next. Perhaps the most important of all is the (L) MACD Bullish Cross on, also on the 1W time-frame, the first such formation in a whole year (since October 23 2023). This is a huge development as it comes after 7 months of non-bullish price action, indicating a shift in trend.
** Can the top be at $200k or above? **
When all those indicators were aligned in mid 2020, BTC kick started the 2nd, final and most aggressive Rally of its Cycle. It was +65% stronger than the 1st Rally. As a result, we may experience in the next 12 months a rally of +615% (65% greater than the +373% 1st Rally).
But if this seems too great without a catalyst like the ETF launch was in January, even if BTC replicates the bullish price action of November 2022 - March 2024, it will still hit the $200k mark. What history has shown at least, is that we can stay bullish, until a 1W candle closes below the 1W MA50, whether that's at 100k, 150k or 200k and above.
So what do you think about this triple bullish combo? Is it enough to initiate a 12-month rally? And if so, what is your target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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