$AMGN - NR Picks Nov 22Amgen se dedica a descubrir, desarrollar, fabricar y ofrecer terapias humanas en todo el mundo. Se centra en las áreas de inflamación, oncología / hematología, salud ósea, enfermedades cardiovasculares, nefrología y neurociencia.
La compañía tuvo una reacción positiva a inicios de mes cuando presentó una actualización de su fármaco para la psoriasis, durante el mes el precio de la acción fue cayendo hasta estar cerca a los niveles pre-reacción.
Este retroceso se ve como una oportunidad para Amgen , recordemos que esta compañía es una de las mas importantes del sector. Creemos que el interés de los inversores durante el mes ha cambiado a compañías que están brindando actualizaciones sobre el desarrollo de la vacuna contra el COVID-19.
Healthcare
Amgen Nears a Death CrossMany stocks have hit new highs this month, but Amgen isn’t one of them.
The biotech may be showing signs of topping out. The main thing jumping off its chart now is the falling 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Current prices have dropped back to the 200-day SMA. If the trend continues, it could produce a “death cross.”
Next, why is AMGN’s 50-day SMA falling? The reason can be found on October 8 when a potential heart drug failed to reduce death in a phase 3 trial. Its partner, Cytokinetics , lost more than 40 percent of its value on the news.
Third, AMGN’s last peak occurred at almost exactly the same price around $241 where it ended 2019. It’s back in negative territory YTD and at risk of potentially bearish window dressing into December.
Fourth, stochastics have been overbought -- even as the stock made a lower high versus early October.
Finally, relative strength has been poor in big pharma. Most of the gains in health care lately has been in HMOs, hospitals and medical devices. For an example of the weakness, just look at Pfizer or Gilead Sciences. Even with Covid products, they haven’t been able to advance.
Investors should always be wary of stocks falling when the market’s rising because it can foreshadow broader distribution.
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Swing trade *AUVI*
Not much data due to company time in market but here is what I have:
Entered position today in small increments.
Chart shows a bounce off area of
S1(Support) and looking to make it way to P(Pivot point)
Neutral outlook here with a very bullish outlook should it go back up past $7.90.
Stop loss @ 5.0 4.97
*indicators used*
-ZigZag
-Supertrend V1.0
-Pivots
-Vol
-MACD
-MA
*Please leave a like if you found this useful*
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Sector: Health Technology
Industry: Medical Specialties
Applied UV, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, development, and sale of infection prevention UV products for the healthcare, hospitality, and residential industries. It operates under the Disinfectant and Hospitality Segments. The Disinfectant segment designs, manufactures, assembles, and distributes automated disinfecting mirror systems for use in hospitals and other healthcare facilities. The Hospitality segment manufactures fine mirrors specifically for the hospitality industry. The company was founded on February 26, 2019 and is headquartered in Mount Vernon, NY.
BLACK SWAN PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO WIG20This pessimistic scenario is based upon current state of healthcare services in Poland which were underfinanced for many years and have very limited resources in qualified personell and equipment.
There is significant lack of nurses and doctors in Poland not mentioning available hospital beds which means the system is near its breaking point.
Recents countrywide protests could lead to epidemic spread of Covid 19 infection which will soon paralyse healthcare sytem and force goverment to freeze everything.
Careplussupport level at 3.20
Resistance 1 : 3.50
Resistance 2 : 3.85
medical gloves are on demand globally so investing in careplus till 2021 shouldn’t be an issue. *Profitable company *
If you bought at the higher price my suggestion is use this formula call (buy on deep)
Buy On deep at 3.25
It’s helps you to lower your total unit price (Lower price vs more units in hand )
Careplus projection to 4rm in 2weeks time
( TRADE WHATS THE WORLD NEEDS)
Healthcare Critical LevelTechnical Analysis
The 200ema has been tested several times, and has worked very well as a mid-term support level.
Risk reward ratio is easy to set-up with a 3:1 ratio approximately.
Sector & Industry Analysis
It is important to note that the industries inside the sector have different performance, which has been very useful to analyze what the market thinks of the risk of healthcare with the election coming up.
The following list is the Healthcare Industries with a 6-month performance % move, as well as a some good ETF to follow/trade:
Healthcare Technology --> +56% // have not found appropriate ETF.
Biotechnology --> +21% // XBI (smaller biotech), IBB (large-cap biotech), ARKG (genomics)
Healthcare Equipment --> +19% // IHI
Healthcare Providers --> +5.51% // IHF
Pharmaceuticals --> -1.3% // IHE
Unheard gross margins of 95% and a $800B TAM : $GDRXGoodRx is a free-to-use service that allows Americans to find the lowest-cost prescription drugs in their area. The company makes money by receiving a commission for every prescription order filled via its coupons, which are accepted by nearly all 70,000 pharmacies across the country.
-Most Downloaded medical app in US with 4.8/5 rating(700,000+ reviews)
-Partnership with Kroger
-Competing with TDOC with the launch of HeyDoctor
- Rising prices of pharmaceuticals and their mission is to lower the cost of healthcare
-95% Gross margin (What?!?!). 30% Operating margin.
- $75M Free cash flow.
- TAM $800 Mn
- NPS 86
- 4.6/5 Glassdoor
- Founder led
Concerns,
1. P/S of 37.1 and 201 PE. Average PE in healthcare is 24.
2. IPO hype(good for trades though)
3. 94% of top line revenue still coming in from prescription stream(concentration risk?) which grew 42% Q1.
4. Regulations
5. International expansion?
6. 4 holders own 60-65% of the company(Both good and bad)
TA,
1. Wedge breakout
2. Potential base of Cup.
3. Low volume on Pullback
Not a long term position yet. Swing trade.
Entry : break of 52
Stop loss : 49 (-7.8%)
Dialysis solution may have bottomed following IPOI want to thank Vara and Ericrock on the Atlas Trading server for calling this one to my attention. For the same reason that I loved the shape of $ZI and $LMND I see a similar pattern of a poor IPO response that has (possibly) bottomed out. Potential upcoming catalysts could be in response to CA Prop 23 which would add additional regulations to dialysis clinics if passed.
SPHealth 2 Week Comparisons (Oct 7-20 2020)SPHealth - Growth Analysis & Comparison - Cindicator Poll Submission (October 7th - 20th 2020)
I've been looking through my Cindicator questions, making forecasts and watching markets as new polls pop up. Here's a comparison chart for 5 major S&P health companies and my rankings forecast.
(Descending order from most growth to least)
United Health Group Inc (UNH)
Abbott Labs (ABT)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Merck & Co. (MRK)
This forecast will be explicitly graded by total growth % comparisons of opening prices on October 7th to closing prices on October 20th across the 5 aforementioned companies.
As of right now before 10-9-20 daily market open, the percentage growth is as follows:
UNH +1.9%
PFE +1.87%
JNJ +1.56%
ABT +1.1%
MRK +0.54%
When looking at a specific metric within the already completed duration since I submitted my forecast, overall recent growth is:
UNH +2.82%
PFE +2.66%
JNJ +2.24%
MRK +2.22%
ABT +1.62%
10-9-20 Forecast Adjustments:
Now that I have seen the last 2 days play out, I'm starting to notice a couple things about my forecast and actual live value.
I'm confident that United Health will still outperform, but this outlook could change if any major market sell off occurs before the 20th. Pfizer looks like it could be a strong runner up, and I may have flubbed my original forecast by ranking it 4th in growth. Johnson & Johnson is performing approximately as expected. Merck and Abbott Labs could be tricky to pinpoint exactly without some further research and analysis but, I'm guessing that Abbott may come in 4th place if everything settles after any quick rallies that should happen. If a light pump in Merck occurs over the 19th-20th, then there could be a small chance it outperforms Abbott for 4th but it feels like an unlikely scenario.
After these deliberations, I've decided my forecast doesn't need much adjusting other than to swap the placement of Pfizer and Abbott. My updated forecast is as follows:
United Health Group Inc (UNH)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Abbott Labs (ABT)
Merck & Co. (MRK)
One thing to note is that I believe TradingView is not calculating its percentage scale correctly, its placing the 0% Y axis at the close value of the first candle used to calculate growth. So this graph is really just more for me to check my own work by hand, as the percentages on the left will not accurately portray what is actually being graded by Cindicator.
I'll check back in after the 20th to see how this turned out!
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers
Genomics ETF --> breakout & measured moveARKG broke out of the parallel channel with strong volume (over 110% tan average 10-day volume).
When there is a break-out, the 5sma tends to be a good rule of thumb to follow the short-term trend; and not lose to much if there is a failed breakout.
RSI shows we are still not overbought at 67; but with strong buying.
Using the bottom level of the parallel channel to calculate a measured move; puts ARKG around $75.
$LMAT can rise in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea.
LeMaitre Vascular, Inc. designs, markets, sells, services, and supports medical devices and implants for the treatment of peripheral vascular disease worldwide.
The demand for shares of the company looks higher than the supply.
This and other conditions can cause a rise in the share price in the next days.
So I opened a long position from $33,45;
stop-loss — $32,46.
Information about take-profits will be later.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas.
Thanks for being with me!
$AVDL can fall in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea.
Avadel Pharmaceuticals operates as a specialty pharmaceutical company in the United States, France, and Ireland.
The demand for shares of the company looks lower than the supply.
This and other conditions can cause a fall in the share price in the next days.
So I opened a short position from $5,23;
stop-loss — $5,89.
Information about take-profits will be later.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas.
Thanks for being with me!
$CODX can rise in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea.
Co-Diagnostics, Inc., a molecular diagnostics company, intends to manufacture and sell reagents used for diagnostic tests that function via the detection and/or analysis of nucleic acid molecules.
The share price rose after the company announced that it had entered into an agreement with Arches Research, a subsidiary of Polarity TE (NASDAQ:PTE), to expand Arches' use of Co-Diagnostics' Logix Smart COVID-19 test.
The demand for shares of the company still looks higher than the supply.
These and other conditions can cause a rise in the share price in the next days.
So I opened a long position again from $11,62;
stop-loss — $10,80.
Information about take-profits will be later.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas.
Thanks for being with me!
$MASI can fall in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea.
Masimo Corporation, a medical technology company, develops, manufactures, and markets noninvasive monitoring technologies and hospital automation solutions worldwide.
The demand for shares of the company looks lower than the supply.
This and other conditions can cause a fall in the share price in the next days.
So I opened a short position from $218,41;
stop-loss — $221,56.
Information about take-profits will be later.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas.
Thanks for being with me!
Possible Head & Shoulders for APHA?A H&S pattern is clearly noticeable on the RSI & KST.
On the KST the right shoulder is lower than the left, but on the price the right shoulder is higher than the left, not sure if that's considered a bearish divergence but if there's further downside action it would seem accurate.
On the KST each shoulder & the head display a bearish cross where I have placed the red finger, this happens when the red line crosses over the green in a downward angle.
Pharma looks fugly on a relative basisBreaking down through support, this is what kept me out of trading PFE to the long-side even though it looked bullish. With the elections coming up and democrats leading the polls, I'd stay away from pharma and insurers. Lean towards medical devices if you need healthcare exposure.