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Trend prediction for 20 to 24 September 2021 Greetings, the HSI trend has reached a new low point 24424 in 2021 years at 17/09/2021. Then it rebounce back and end with 24920. It could be studied as the investors do not want to let the trend break through 24580 and there is a resistance line at there. The trade volume at 17/09/21 is more than any day trade in September. Will it be a chance to rebounce THIRD Time? Before we talk about the rebounce, there are few news that we should keep in our mind. Last week, Evergrande (3333) debt crisis event, and also the announcement of Macau government to amend the gambling gaming law, have caused serious impact to Hong Kong Stock market. The trend start to go down trend at 13 September to 16 September. Since the incidents haven't been resolved, the panic of the Hong Kong investors not stable yet. From chart, we could find out that even the trend keeps go down trend, but the MACD and RSI of three rebounce point are one wave higher than one wave. And each time the trend reached the low point (27/07) (20/08) & (16/09), obvious rebounce will happen. THERE IS A RESISTANCE AT 24580 TO PREVENT THE TREND DROP FURTHER , which means the will of investors do not want the trend go down trend further. However, you will also find out that, EACH TIME OF REBOUNCE, THE RESISTANCE POINT BECOME LOWER EACH TIME. You may study the phenomenon as LOSS OF STRENGTH , even the trade volume is higher than any trade volume in September. But, after a period for investors to examine the news and policy of CHINA government, the market atmosphere will gradually calm down, and restart new investment strategy. But the trend at 17 September 2021 appears a PIERCING LINE PATTERN, which is a signal about the change of trend or bottom signal. If the trend can stand back above 25000 and end with red candle on next Monday or Tuesday (20 - 21Spetember), the trend can be confirmed to turn uptrend and start a new rebounce again. If not, then it might break through the 24580 and find a new low point again. ============================ Suggestion for the HSI market ============================ Since the trend is unknown, OBSERVE THE TREND FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY and wait until it has confirmed its trend change to uptrend. If not, consider the down trend will keeps continue. Keep in mind that the entire trend of HSI is high first and low. If this trend analysis does not change in the future, it means that more lower point will appear in September. Again, All the prediction above just assumption, and it is not an advise to purchase or sell the share, please be responsible to your own trade behaviour. Hope all of you may earn more money and be a rich man/woman. ==============New update============ Hang Seng Future (Night) + ADR for 20 September 2021 Closed price = 24784 Advise =Next Monday (20/09) HSI maybe will low open at 24784, but it might be changed on next Monday again.
TVC:HSI
by lsking0425
15
Hong Kong Tech Giant Tencent, is it time to buy? After a crash of 40%+ from the recent high in Feb, is it time to buy Tencent again? Tencent has not closed below the 40 MA on the monthly chart yet. The last few times it has fallen close to this moving average, it has provided a great buy opportunity for the short, mid, and long term. Currently, the MA level to watch is 431. If we close below this moving average, it could be a strong sign that downside risk has increased again...
HKEX:700
by johninvest17
39
Pacific Basin 2343:HK Possible entry opportunityUptrending since January with strong support at the 20 EMA. The most recent dip is collateral damage arising from the China tech crackdown, which has seen the tide lower across the HSI. This represents an opportunity. Additionally, huge supply and demand factors in the global shipping industry at play right now. I expect a bounce off 2.82 if not before that. Speculative target 50% exit at 3.35 (~7 days). Laughing all the way to 3.50 (~15 days). Do your own research.
HKEX:2343Long
by Callyflakes
[Gann Theory]There be any cycle in the stock market? Absolutely, the answer is yes, but we can't apply a simple and fixed model to all stock markets. Each stock market is an independent viberation with its own cycle and development laws. Therefore, the cycle and law of the stock market will be introduced before presenting the text of this book. Since the 1900's, economists in western countries have engaged in the study the law of the cycle, and all believed that there was a long-term law in the economic growth or recession. There is noting new thing under the sun. In 1930, the American economist S. Kuznets proposed a business cycle applying to housing construction, with an average length of 20 years. This long-term cycle is known as the "Kuznets" cycle, or building cycle. C Juglar, a French economist, published his Business Crisis and Cycle in France, Britain and the United States in 1862. In this book, he pointed out that the capitalist economy fluctuated every nine to ten years, as generally called "Juglar cycle". Joseph Schumpeter took this as the "medium-term cycle", or the "Juglar cycle". Edward R. Deway, known as the father of cycle analysis, believed that the most statistically reliable cycles were 9.2 years and 3.83 years. He was also the founder of many institutions studying the cycles. Edward R. Dewey (1895-1978) dedicated his life to study the cycles (not limited to the business cycle) and in 1931, he was appointed as the Chief Economic Analyst by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Trying to find the cause of the Great Depression in 1929 and 1930 in the United States, Edward R. Dewey established the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in Pittsburgh in 1940. The following are some graphs about the cycles proposed by Edward. Business cycles can be categorized into long-term, medium-term and short-term ones. You may ask, is there any business cycle in the stock market or the economy? Let's begin with the stock market cycle and then we will talk about the real estate cycle. The 30-year cycle is one of the cores of Gann's cycle theory. When making a prediction, the 30-year cycle can be divided in further, including the following different cycles. • 30-year cycle • 22.5-year cycle - (360 X6/8) • 15-year cycle - (360X4/8) • 10-year cycle - (360X1/3) • 7.5-year cycle - (360X2/8) If this 30-year cycle is applied to calculate the stock market cycle, you will get an amazing discovery. For example, Hong Kong's stock market crash in 1987 followed with another one 7.5 years later, namely in 1994, because of the upsurge of red chip speculation by foreign investors in 1993 and the United States' increase of the interest rates for 7 successive times. 15 years later, around the year of 2002 and 2003, the stock market underwent a huge decline because of the outbreak of avian influenza. In 2009, namely 22.5 years after that, HSI hit the bottom as a consequence of the financial tsunami. When it came to 2017, exactly 30 years later, HSI witnessed a depreciation in 2018 after experiencing the bull market. When the 30-year cycle is applied to Shanghai securities composite index, there will also come something incredible. As shown in the chart below, the first peak after the establishment of Shanghai Stock Exchange occurred in May 1992. Following Gann's 30-year cycle, another peak appeared in the half of 1999, exactly 7.5 years later. 15 years later, the year of 2007 witnessed the climax of the bull market. After 22.5 years, the year of 2014 marked the starting point of the bull market in 2015. It is thought that the year of 2022, 30 years later, will be another high or low point. Just as the old chinese sayings go that "both people and things undergo great changes in a decade", "gold may become worthless in a decade" and "we cannot predict what will happen in a decade and don't laugh at poor people wearing rags". These sayings point out the essence of the 10-year cycle. Juglar proposed that there was a 9 to 10 years' cyclical fluctuation for the market economy in his book Business Crisis and Cycle in France, Britain and the United States in 1862. In Business Prophecies of the Future Ups and Downs in Prices, Samuel T Benner stated that the highest point of trade price followed a repeated 8-9-10-year pattern. The 10-year cycle also plays an important role in Gann Theory. ericresearch.org Shanghai Securities Composite Index with a Cycle of 120 Months Take Shanghai securities composite index as an example. After reaching a low point of 998 in 2005, the high point of the bull market appeared in 2015, 120 months (ten years) later. After the low point of 1,664 in October 2008, another lowest point came in 2018, 121 months later. Shanghai Securities Composite Index with a Cycle of 52 Weeks The above chart shows that the Shanghai securities composite index also subjects itself to a 52-week cycle. In the weekly column chart of the Shanghai securities composite index, the time interval between the peak in October 2007 and the low point is 52 weeks. After that, there will be return in every 52 weeks, either the peak or the bottoming out of the market index. Let's see the weekly column chart of the Shanghai securities composite index and take "7" weeks as a cycle. It is found that from the high point of 2015, there is a relative turn in a cycle of 7 weeks or its multiples, namely 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 49, 56, 63 and 70. Is this a coincidence or an accident for the above change in the stock market? Now, one question. Whether the movement in the stock market is driven by events or the high and low points at the previous time point (cycle)? Therefore, China's stock market proceeds in a cyclical way. The turning point can be predicted as long as the right starting point can be realized. There is also a cycle for real estate. Although economists all over the world hold different opinions towards the research of the real estate market, but they serve the same effect. I will state the opinions of the following economists for your reference. ·Michael Hoyt, the author of One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago, studied the price of real estate in Chicago in a time period of 103 years since there were only dozens of wooden houses, and he found that its price cycles about every 18 years. ·Edward R. Deway, known as the father of cycle analysis, believed that each real estate cycle lasts for about 18 years. ·Fred Harrison, a British economist studying the real estate market in the Britain and United States in the past 200-plus years, found that the housing price cycled about every 18 years. ·Simon Smith Kuznets believed that the building cycle is 15 to 20 years. It is coincidentally acknowledged that the real estate market cycles every 18 to 20 years. Starting from 1965, it is generally believed that the real estate market in Hong Kong has gone through three major cycles, the first cycle from 1965 to 1981; the second one from 1981 to 1997; and the third one from 1997 to now. The housing price often goes up or down along with the change of both internal and external elements. I have mentioned the Hong Kong real estate market cycle in different situations. It is not difficult to draw a conclusion from the cycle of Hong Kong's real estate market that the cycle works every six years. Since 1997, great changes occur every six years, including 2003, 2009, 2015, and 2021. With Gann's 50% segmentation method, we can get that three years constitute a secondary cycle, namely in 2000, 2006, 2012, and 2018. The change of the real estate market can also be concluded with the 18-year cycle, which has worked since 1985. Undoubtedly, the real estate market in Hong Kong goes up after experiencing the lowest point in 2003. Predicably, that the year of 2021 is likely to witness the completion of an 18-year cycle. Stepping back again, the rise of the real estate market in 2003 can be explained with the 6-year cycle mentioned above since the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration in 1985. It is likely that the upsurge of Hong Kong's real estate market will end in 2021, and then we should turn to the turning point that may appear from 2023 to 2024. Youtube: www.youtube.com Book: www.amazon.com
TVC:DJIEducation
by ericresearchgann
2
Hang Seng Index - Supply & Demand AnalysisRecently Hang Seng Index reversed on a strong monthly Supply Zone finishing it's external bullish cycle The price decided make an external bearish cycle.. now it's advised to SELL at long term basis. Next destinations: A) DEMAND (26908.14 - 26021.63) Here price need to decide: if reverse in order to back to SUPPLY (32004.32 - 31126.20) OR BREAKOUT , retest and go to next DEMAND (23622.97 - 23204.17) B) DEMAND (23622.97 - 23204.17) Final external bearish cycle destination Enjoy the Profits!
TVC:HSIShort
by eldes
Sunny Optical 2382:HK hits 10 MA. Bounce time!Sunny Optical 2382:HK has pulled back to hit its 10 day MA which it has historically respected. It also happens to converge on the bottom of its regression trend channel at $210. There is currently some indecision in the market, but if it trades up tomorrow, it would be a good time to get in, with an initial TP of $223.40 where you might release half. I expect it to hit north of $250 before retracing - though that may take some time. If I was a punter, I'd be looking out for a bullish harami in the coming days.
HKEX:2382Long
by Callyflakes
Greatwall Motors 2333:HK bouncing off support - quick 10% Greatwall Motors 2333:HK has been unstoppable since as early as last July. It's made a pullback over the past month. It has bounced off support of 23.15, and has just broken through resistance of 25.50. If it is to follow the current trajectory, there should be a quick 10% rebound in the coming days to next resistance at 28.30, with a medium-term TP of 33.00. If that's not enough, a couple of investment banks have set their TP at a range of $35-$40. Plus, 2333.HK are buying into the chip market. The latter point is significant because it panders to central government policy. Only caveats here: Most of China is on holidays for the next 10 days, so things might slow down a bit - but that might also suggest less competition to get in, if you were so inclined, and... DYOR always.
HKEX:2333Long
by Callyflakes
HKEX:2196 Fosun Pharma retrace and re-entryAfter a flood of southbound cash into the HK bourse yesterday, HKEX:2196 Fosun Pharma shot up to resistance level at 38.95 within four trading days. Probably a little too much excitement for this particular stock. This was not expected on my part, but very welcome. I took profit as soon as I saw that this resistance level held. Based on these charts, I would wait for entry when the price pulls back to support at 36.50, which also roughly stacks with the 20 EMA and sits nicely within its current uptrend channel . I still believe it will reach $40-$41 in the near term.
HKEX:2196Long
by Callyflakes
Honk Kong 33 Ascending Channel - Short PositionHonk Kong 33 Short Order Entry: 28,267.8 TP & RR: 27,881.1 (1.5) Stop Loss: 28,525.9 REASONS FOR THE TRADE I hate to open a position against the trend, but I believe that the price will respect the upper trendline and reverse to test the lower trendline. The Stop Loss is set just above major resistance, so if we do get hit it's very likely that the price will continue trending up. The Market Flow indicator is not giving me a signal yet, still showing some strength, so if the trade setup is correct then it should start reverting soon.
OANDA:HK33HKDShort
by Quant_
HONG KONG UNDER RESISTANCE AND LOOKS BEARISHHello Traders, Hong Kong is going through some troubling times right now. To summarize very briefly, Hong Kong has been its own entity for some time with its own legal systems, boarders and rights but due to legal agreements China wants to take back Hong Kong as part of China. This is a crude summary of events. This is causing friction between Hong Kong and China and there have been violent protests for several months over the current situation. Hong Kong property market is also one of the most expensive in the world. Due to the current climate of uncertainty and looking at the chart of the Hong Kong top 50, it looks very bearish to me. Price has dropped out of a large descending triangle, that H+S dumping price to below the major support/resistance level. Price looks like its trying to break resistance but I think with whats going on right now it wont. Quite simply if the price breaks resistance, holds resistance and moves up then that will make my bearish stance invalid. But because I am bearish I am looking for weakness here. Repeated failures at resistance means the price will be going lower.
FOREXCOM:HK50Short
by WickHunter
Hang Seng: Symmetrical Golden/ Death Cross. Long term Buy SignalHang Seng has been devastated by the recent negative geopolitical climate, reaching in August the 24,900 1W Support. The rebound that followed on 1D was rejected near the Lower High trend line (dashed) and 1D MA200 (orange line) thus keeping 1W bearish (RSI = 43.695, MACD = -309.550, Highs/Lows = -317.3100). We have had a Death Cross formation on that bottom and interestingly enough it is symmetrical with the Golden Cross in March. Since we already tested the 1W Support there are more probabilities now to resume the uptrend and reach at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (currently at 28,200) like Hang Seng did on its 2019 top. Anything above that will be bullish towards at least 30,200 (2019 High). If however by any chance the index dip again to the 1W Support (the 2018 bottom was at 24,500) then that would be an even stronger long term buy signal towards the 33,500 ATH. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
TVC:HSILong
by InvestingScope