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Hsi!

2021 Aug 02 Week OANDA:HK33HKD 2021 Aug 02 Week Last week a historically UHV down bar appeared. Strength always appears on UHV ultra wide spread DOWN bar. Weekly: Market has rolled over with a wide spread down bar closing in middle (UHV) = Indecision. Price bounced off Monthly channel demand line. Daily: Shakeout + Reversal = Strength. Market was resisted at 26340 temporarily. Given the UHV, there should still be supply to clear. H4: Bar A UHV ultra wide spread bar closing off low = strength. Automatic reversal after climatic Bar A has reasonably good bullish volume. Test of the lower region of bar A is to be expected. Bar B test of low has off the low and level with bar A, some demand is present. Strategy: (1) Red/Green zones = preferred entry (2) Dotted Red/Green is to indicate late entry, but risk will be higher since SL is further away Remember to follow and like if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
OANDA:HK33HKD
by paradox677
Stocks - What Next?Idea for indices: - As expected, Robinhood IPO was the trigger for global sell-off (other factors involved obviously, but I have been posting about everything macro related in other posts). - China continuing to lead down. - Look how the deflationary wave hits HSI > Nikkei > EU > US. Dome tops forming everywhere. - ECB actually has greater QE than US, so EU index performance is a critical tell for deflationary forces vs. QE. - Watch China Tech ETFs to lead US indices down. Managers will need to also liquidate US positions as their portfolio % exposure becomes overweight. I've been enjoying watching Nikkei lately - it just broke a critical support and 200 DMA (6m low), officially a bear market if it consolidates losses. However, it is still holding 50 WMA and 200 DMA in real performance... waiting for US markets for confirmation. Bearish bias here, turning point is due. Aug 2 debt limit will be in focus. Early August is my trigger for reversal confirmation. If it holds, we can back off and try again later, but rugpull is definitely due. Already short US indices (long vol). Nikkei real performance (relative to currency): Here is what I think will happen to Nikkei next: GLHF - DPT
TVC:NI225Short
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
Hang Seng Index Futures at Key Inflection Point, Top to Resume?After tumbling recently, Hang Seng Futures are back to retesting a former trendline from 2020 as new resistance. This is also around the often pivotal 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 26078. The near-term 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) still offer a downside bias, potentially acting as key resistance in the event prices materially push higher. Otherwise, downtrend resumption entails clearing key support, which seems to be the 78.6% level at 24708, as the index flirts with bear market territory. HSI1!
HKEX:HSI1!
by QM_Dubrovsky
1
Pacific Basin 2343:HK Possible entry opportunityUptrending since January with strong support at the 20 EMA. The most recent dip is collateral damage arising from the China tech crackdown, which has seen the tide lower across the HSI. This represents an opportunity. Additionally, huge supply and demand factors in the global shipping industry at play right now. I expect a bounce off 2.82 if not before that. Speculative target 50% exit at 3.35 (~7 days). Laughing all the way to 3.50 (~15 days). Do your own research.
HKEX:2343Long
by Callyflakes
HSI DailyDaily RSI went oversold so it got a bounce, but I think there's further downside because their own government keeps crushing various stocks. I don't think Xi gives a rat's ass about the stock market any more, obviously he's trying to squash billionaires. It's supposed to be a communist country, after all. Also, Xi WILL invade Taiwan while Biden is in office. He's made that a goal, and he's 68 so he knows he doesn't have a lot of time left to leave his legacy. If only there was a way to get inside info on WHEN, you'd make a killing with EWT puts. Maybe he does it to celebrate his 70th birthday in a couple of years, no real way to predict.... Anyways, see the highlighted peak, expect a similar whipsaw down.
HKEX:HSI1!
by hungry_hippo
3
HANG SENG INDEX Will Go Down! Sell! Hello,Traders! HSI is trading below a strong horizontal resistance That was established 4 months ago And once the index retested the level We saw a nice bearish reaction Given the renewed lockdowns in some parts of China Together with the 2nd biggest port brought to a halt And the persistent news of the Radioactive leak In the Southern Provinces The sentiment isn't optimistic And the date on sales of cars and smartphones China confirms that All of that combined make a bearish correction very real And the target is near the previous low that stands at -4% Vis a vis the current levels Sell! Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading! See other ideas below too!
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by TopTradingSignals
1
[Gann Theory]There be any cycle in the stock market? Absolutely, the answer is yes, but we can't apply a simple and fixed model to all stock markets. Each stock market is an independent viberation with its own cycle and development laws. Therefore, the cycle and law of the stock market will be introduced before presenting the text of this book. Since the 1900's, economists in western countries have engaged in the study the law of the cycle, and all believed that there was a long-term law in the economic growth or recession. There is noting new thing under the sun. In 1930, the American economist S. Kuznets proposed a business cycle applying to housing construction, with an average length of 20 years. This long-term cycle is known as the "Kuznets" cycle, or building cycle. C Juglar, a French economist, published his Business Crisis and Cycle in France, Britain and the United States in 1862. In this book, he pointed out that the capitalist economy fluctuated every nine to ten years, as generally called "Juglar cycle". Joseph Schumpeter took this as the "medium-term cycle", or the "Juglar cycle". Edward R. Deway, known as the father of cycle analysis, believed that the most statistically reliable cycles were 9.2 years and 3.83 years. He was also the founder of many institutions studying the cycles. Edward R. Dewey (1895-1978) dedicated his life to study the cycles (not limited to the business cycle) and in 1931, he was appointed as the Chief Economic Analyst by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Trying to find the cause of the Great Depression in 1929 and 1930 in the United States, Edward R. Dewey established the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in Pittsburgh in 1940. The following are some graphs about the cycles proposed by Edward. Business cycles can be categorized into long-term, medium-term and short-term ones. You may ask, is there any business cycle in the stock market or the economy? Let's begin with the stock market cycle and then we will talk about the real estate cycle. The 30-year cycle is one of the cores of Gann's cycle theory. When making a prediction, the 30-year cycle can be divided in further, including the following different cycles. • 30-year cycle • 22.5-year cycle - (360 X6/8) • 15-year cycle - (360X4/8) • 10-year cycle - (360X1/3) • 7.5-year cycle - (360X2/8) If this 30-year cycle is applied to calculate the stock market cycle, you will get an amazing discovery. For example, Hong Kong's stock market crash in 1987 followed with another one 7.5 years later, namely in 1994, because of the upsurge of red chip speculation by foreign investors in 1993 and the United States' increase of the interest rates for 7 successive times. 15 years later, around the year of 2002 and 2003, the stock market underwent a huge decline because of the outbreak of avian influenza. In 2009, namely 22.5 years after that, HSI hit the bottom as a consequence of the financial tsunami. When it came to 2017, exactly 30 years later, HSI witnessed a depreciation in 2018 after experiencing the bull market. When the 30-year cycle is applied to Shanghai securities composite index, there will also come something incredible. As shown in the chart below, the first peak after the establishment of Shanghai Stock Exchange occurred in May 1992. Following Gann's 30-year cycle, another peak appeared in the half of 1999, exactly 7.5 years later. 15 years later, the year of 2007 witnessed the climax of the bull market. After 22.5 years, the year of 2014 marked the starting point of the bull market in 2015. It is thought that the year of 2022, 30 years later, will be another high or low point. Just as the old chinese sayings go that "both people and things undergo great changes in a decade", "gold may become worthless in a decade" and "we cannot predict what will happen in a decade and don't laugh at poor people wearing rags". These sayings point out the essence of the 10-year cycle. Juglar proposed that there was a 9 to 10 years' cyclical fluctuation for the market economy in his book Business Crisis and Cycle in France, Britain and the United States in 1862. In Business Prophecies of the Future Ups and Downs in Prices, Samuel T Benner stated that the highest point of trade price followed a repeated 8-9-10-year pattern. The 10-year cycle also plays an important role in Gann Theory. ericresearch.org Shanghai Securities Composite Index with a Cycle of 120 Months Take Shanghai securities composite index as an example. After reaching a low point of 998 in 2005, the high point of the bull market appeared in 2015, 120 months (ten years) later. After the low point of 1,664 in October 2008, another lowest point came in 2018, 121 months later. Shanghai Securities Composite Index with a Cycle of 52 Weeks The above chart shows that the Shanghai securities composite index also subjects itself to a 52-week cycle. In the weekly column chart of the Shanghai securities composite index, the time interval between the peak in October 2007 and the low point is 52 weeks. After that, there will be return in every 52 weeks, either the peak or the bottoming out of the market index. Let's see the weekly column chart of the Shanghai securities composite index and take "7" weeks as a cycle. It is found that from the high point of 2015, there is a relative turn in a cycle of 7 weeks or its multiples, namely 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 49, 56, 63 and 70. Is this a coincidence or an accident for the above change in the stock market? Now, one question. Whether the movement in the stock market is driven by events or the high and low points at the previous time point (cycle)? Therefore, China's stock market proceeds in a cyclical way. The turning point can be predicted as long as the right starting point can be realized. There is also a cycle for real estate. Although economists all over the world hold different opinions towards the research of the real estate market, but they serve the same effect. I will state the opinions of the following economists for your reference. ·Michael Hoyt, the author of One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago, studied the price of real estate in Chicago in a time period of 103 years since there were only dozens of wooden houses, and he found that its price cycles about every 18 years. ·Edward R. Deway, known as the father of cycle analysis, believed that each real estate cycle lasts for about 18 years. ·Fred Harrison, a British economist studying the real estate market in the Britain and United States in the past 200-plus years, found that the housing price cycled about every 18 years. ·Simon Smith Kuznets believed that the building cycle is 15 to 20 years. It is coincidentally acknowledged that the real estate market cycles every 18 to 20 years. Starting from 1965, it is generally believed that the real estate market in Hong Kong has gone through three major cycles, the first cycle from 1965 to 1981; the second one from 1981 to 1997; and the third one from 1997 to now. The housing price often goes up or down along with the change of both internal and external elements. I have mentioned the Hong Kong real estate market cycle in different situations. It is not difficult to draw a conclusion from the cycle of Hong Kong's real estate market that the cycle works every six years. Since 1997, great changes occur every six years, including 2003, 2009, 2015, and 2021. With Gann's 50% segmentation method, we can get that three years constitute a secondary cycle, namely in 2000, 2006, 2012, and 2018. The change of the real estate market can also be concluded with the 18-year cycle, which has worked since 1985. Undoubtedly, the real estate market in Hong Kong goes up after experiencing the lowest point in 2003. Predicably, that the year of 2021 is likely to witness the completion of an 18-year cycle. Stepping back again, the rise of the real estate market in 2003 can be explained with the 6-year cycle mentioned above since the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration in 1985. It is likely that the upsurge of Hong Kong's real estate market will end in 2021, and then we should turn to the turning point that may appear from 2023 to 2024. Youtube: www.youtube.com Book: www.amazon.com
TVC:DJIEducation
by ericresearchgann
2