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GBP/USD: Bearish Momentum Holds Below 1.2500GBP/USD trades around 1.2490, showing weakness for the third consecutive day, with the daily chart indicating a bearish bias within a descending channel. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, projecting a 2025 rate of 3.9% (up from 3.4% in September). Powell emphasized caution and a slower path for future rate cuts, while the BoE kept rates steady at 4.75%. The strengthening of the US Dollar has been supported by rising Treasury yields, although improving global risk sentiment might limit further gains. A break below the 1.2450 support could push the price towards 1.2400, while a move above 1.2530 might open the door to a potential test of 1.2600, though this remains unlikely without favorable catalysts.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
NAS100USD: Strategic Selling Amidst Bearish MomentumGreetings Traders! In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, we reflect on yesterday’s high volatility, which triggered a significant displacement to the downside. Such strong movements often leave inefficiencies in price action that may be revisited in the near future. However, the prevailing bearish institutional order flow suggests opportunities to capitalize on selling setups. Key Observations: 1. Consolidation in Premium Zones: Currently, price is consolidating at a premium level, providing an optimal zone to initiate sell positions. Following the principle of selling in premium and buying in discount, this setup aligns with institutional trading strategies. 2. Bearish Momentum: The bearish structure remains intact, reinforcing the likelihood of price continuing its descent toward discount zones. 3. Potential Reversals in Discount: When price reaches discount levels, it is possible for a reversal back into premium zones. This necessitates a strategic and observant approach to anticipate the next market move. Trading Strategy: Entry: Seek confirmation to sell at premium levels during this consolidation phase. Target: Discount zones, where sell-side liquidity resides, will serve as the primary profit-taking area. As always, remain vigilant and adaptive to market dynamics. If you have insights or questions, feel free to share them in the comments. Let’s learn and grow together! Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
Silver Bullet Strategy AUDUSD | 17/12/2024At 9:55 EST, we arrived at our trading desk to scout for trades using silver bullet strategy. We focused on these pairs EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, and USDCAD, hoping to get favorable trading conditions during the session. After 15 minutes, our first FVG formed on GBPUSD, indicating a buying opportunity when price retraces into the FVG on this currency pair. Five minutes later, a similar setup to that which formed on GBPUSD appeared on USDCAD as well indicating that we also look for buying opportunities on this pair when we get a retrace into the FVG. Shortly, a FVG formed on AUDUSD, suggesting a selling opportunity when the price retraces into the newly formed FVG. Immediately after identifying the FVG on AUDUSD, the next candle entered the FVG fulfilling all the requirements for our entry criteria. We executed the trade and monitored the other pairs to check if any of them met the entry criteria. However, none of them had at that time, so we entered one trade and waited to see others would give us an entry. We had only 25 minutes to enter the two other setups we observed, otherwise, we would not be able to take those trades due to our trade deadline being at 11:00 EST. We checked USDCAD and realized we got a retrace, but it failed to go lower to give us an entry, so we did nothing. A similar situation was encountered on GBPUSD. We failed to get an entry on the other pairs, however, the positive aspect was that our trade on AUDUSD was progressing well in our intended direction. After waiting a while, we checked on the position again to assess its performance only to realize it had retraced back to our entry point. An ideal situation? No, but this was the reality, we remained unfazed because we had only risked an amount we were comfortable losing. The trade consolidated around our entry price for a while, but we were in no rush. We had three options: 1. Trade reaches the take profit 2. The trade hits the stop loss 3. We manually close the trades at 16:00 EST These are the rules we have on our checklist and we intend to stick by them This trade neither hit our TP nor SL, so we decided to manually close it at 16:00 EST for a small profit, which we’re perfectly okay with. Remember, simply following your trading rules is a win on its own. Your rules exist for a reason!
Education
by CleoFinance
1
Oil Market Analysis - 17/12/2024The oil market is currently under pressure, with WTI down to $69.30 and Brent at $72.66. The main causes are: Pemex Production Recovery: Oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico have returned to full capacity after improved weather conditions and the end of the hurricane season. This has increased available supply, partially offsetting the decline in Russian production. Decline in Russian Crude: Russian maritime oil exports have fallen by 11% since October due to maintenance at a key terminal. This has temporarily limited flows but has not significantly supported prices due to increased production from other sources like Pemex. Strengthening US Dollar: The Dollar Index (DXY) is around 107.00, gaining strength thanks to preliminary US PMI data for December, which signals the fastest economic growth in 33 months, driven by the services sector. A strong dollar negatively impacts oil, making it more expensive for buyers using other currencies. API Expectations: Crude inventory data from the API, scheduled for 21:30 GMT, could add volatility. Last week, there was a build of 0.499 million barrels. EU Sanctions: The EU has imposed sanctions on a Dutch trader involved in trading Russian oil above the price cap. The impact on volumes remains limited for now. Oil Technical Analysis Price Range: Oil is trading within a range between $67.00 (support) and $71.50 (upper resistance), with this band likely extending into January 2025. Resistance: The key resistance is located at $71.03 (100-day SMA) and $71.46, where prices encountered selling pressure last week. A breakout above $71.03 could push prices toward $75.27, but caution is needed for quick profit-taking as the year-end approaches. Support: The first solid support is at $67.12, a level that held prices in May-June 2023. A break below could see crude testing the 2024 yearly low at $64.75 and then $64.38, the 2023 low.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
NAS100USD: Targeting Liquidity in Discount PricesGreetings Traders! In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, bearish institutional order flow remains dominant, characterized by a sustained downtrend and multiple bearish breaks of structure. This bearish momentum presents clear opportunities to capitalize on selling setups. Key Observations: 1. Premium Price Retracement: Price has retraced into premium levels, where premium buy stops were taken. At these levels, institutions likely entered sell positions against willing buyers, a process known as order pairing. 2. Liquidity Targeting: Institutions that sold at premium prices will aim to book profits at discount prices, targeting sell-side liquidity pools. This aligns with the fundamental principle of selling in premium zones and taking profits in discount zones. Trading Strategy: Entry : Seek confirmation in premium price zones before entering sell positions, ensuring alignment with institutional order flow. Target: Focus on the liquidity pools in discount price zones as the primary profit-taking objective. If you have any questions, insights, or analysis to contribute, feel free to share them in the comments. Let’s collaborate, learn, and succeed together! Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
2
EUR/USD: Awaiting the Fed for the Christmas Rally!EUR/USD continues to show weakness, hovering near weekly lows at 1.0453, reflecting an unfavorable macroeconomic outlook for the euro. The ECB's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, combined with the removal of the term "restrictive" in its monetary policy stance and the projection of inflation nearing 2% on a sustainable basis, indicates a less aggressive approach by the central bank, with negative implications for the euro. Christine Lagarde also highlighted downside risks to economic growth, amplifying concerns about the Eurozone. On the U.S. front, a higher-than-expected PPI and an increase in initial jobless claims suggest a mix of inflationary pressures and potential signs of labor market softening. The dollar benefits from strong demand driven by these economic dynamics and the perception of U.S. resilience compared to the Eurozone. Technically, the pair remains in a clear downtrend. In the short term, focus shifts to Federal Reserve statements and U.S. inflation data, which could further strengthen the dollar if they confirm a more robust economic context in the U.S. compared to Europe.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
NAS100USD: Capitalizing on Bearish Displacement!Greetings Traders! In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, the M15 timeframe shows a recent shift to bearish price action, marked by significant displacement to the downside. This displacement provides strong evidence of institutional sell order distribution, as seen in the large bearish candles that led to a bearish break of structure. Key Observations: 1. Premium Price Retracement: After the bearish break, price retraced into deep premium levels, where institutional arrays are present. These premium zones offer opportunities to seek confirmations for selling toward discount prices. 2. Breaker Block as a Key Zone: Price has retraced into a premium breaker block, a critical mitigation zone. What is a Breaker Block? Breaker blocks are mitigation zones created as institutions mitigate losses from opposing orders placed during the prior trend. Once price retraces to these zones, institutions close those losing positions and reinstate new orders to align with the prevailing trend. Trading Strategy: Entry: Look for confirmation at the premium breaker block to align with institutional order flow. Target: The primary target is the liquidity pool in discount prices, adhering to the principle of selling in premium and booking profits in discount zones, mirroring institutional strategies. If you have insights or questions, feel free to share them in the comments. Let’s analyze, learn, and succeed together! Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
3
seeing the daily range before it happens with ict concepts on esprice is finding support in a series of candles forming a h4 breaker on the left side, we can see it forms a manipulation leg lower at the end of the afternoon session closing below the breaker bodies, but then gapping up on new day open. looking up, we can see a h1 imbalance that was never touched, and a series of relative equal highs. fridays are often bullish, and with no news we dont expect a huge move. so looking for price to go up with the 2am gbp gdp and than start is judas swing lower at 3am trapping everyone long. then since there is nothing going on, it can chop around for a while only to go up again and dump at 930 even lower. at this point, its free to spend the rest of the day in a high resistance run up to the equal highs and large imbalance around 6088. using a standard deviation of 3 off the h1 cisd takes you above afternoon highs, and to the top of a series of candle bodies forming rejection block, which could provide further retracement. you could long the asia high which is also a breaker, if it manipulates down there at 930am with your stop at the new day gap low targetting 6088
CME_MINI:MESZ2024Long
by sail_trader
NAS100USD: Are We Seeing a False Bullish Break?Greetings Traders, In today’s analysis, NAS100USD continues to follow bearish institutional order flow, providing an opportunity to capitalize on the current market narrative. While the overall trend remains bearish, recent price action has displayed a bullish break of structure. However, I interpret this as a false break of structure, supported by the following evidence: Key Observations: 1. Engineered Retail Resistance: Institutions have created a retail resistance zone with relatively equal highs. This formation entices retail traders to sell at the resistance level, placing their stop losses above it. These stop losses are viewed as buy stops by institutions, representing willing buyers at premium prices. Institutions capitalize on this by order pairing—selling their positions against the retail buy stops. 2. Institutional Order Pairing Logic: Large funds require opposing liquidity to fill orders efficiently without slippage. To achieve this, institutions manipulate the market by engineering liquidity through patterns such as resistance zones or equal highs. After selling at premium levels, institutions aim to buy back positions at discount prices, targeting sell stops and liquidity pools below. Trading Outlook: Given this institutional behavior, my interpretation is to anticipate further bearish movement . With institutions likely targeting sell-side liquidity at discount levels, I am focusing on the sell-side liquidity pool as the primary target for this setup. If you have any insights, questions, or analysis, feel free to share them in the comments below. Let’s collaborate and refine our strategies together. Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect