Crypto NotesHi traders!
I did not plan to make this post but as Crypto markets are currently falling I will share some of my Crypto
notes that have helped me to navigate in Cryptoverse.
Side note: This is not the only way how to trade Crypto markets. Sharing just some information. Eventually every trader have it's own methods and beliefs.
Being early is a great advantage in Crypto
If you want to discover good projects early that have high potential then some work is needed to put into research. Nowadays there are so many projects (not only BTC & ETH)
and it may feel sometimes overwhelming. Good way is to focus on some specific sectors - this will help to set some boundaries. Of course these sectors (or new trends)
can change as we are dealing with fastly moving technology. If you find something and are able to get in early then it means an entry with low price.
When project is successful you will make X multiple gains (you can replace X with any number you like). But research is only
one part of the work - trade management is also needed. Of course being early has its own risks - at the beginning there is a lot of uncertainty and not all projects are
going to succeed. Trader will have greater earnings potential but also greater risk of failure (compared with mature projects). Everything is in balance.
I personally feel quite comfortable being early - that's why I also like to invest into startups. I value high earnings potential more than risk of being wrong.
Being early gives me some sort of price protection or margin of safety ( check concept 'Margin of Safety' from book "Intelligent Investor - Benjamin Graham" ). This will allow
me to deal with volatile price swings more easily.
I guess it's just like my personal trait. If you don't feel that way then it is perfectly fine. As I said earlier, you can be successful with different strategies.
Just find out what style suits you best.
Scale In & Scale Out
As I have longer view with my Crypto holdings I like to scale in with my buying. For me good entry points are after selloffs - as long as I have a belief that
general market structure has not changed.
I have my core positions that I will plan to hold for years but I also have other positions that I am willing to sell. I try to scale out from those positions
when market is rising to lock in some profit. Doing that will allow me to put some money aside and have gunpowder to buy more after
selloffs or fund new early stage projects.
This takes some practicing because sometimes market rises so nicely that trader feels like there is no point to sell until whole market is down ...
It is hard to predict those events and that's why I prefer to scale out. I try to play the long-term game and I don't have to do all my buying or selling
with one trade.
Liquidity Planning
Basically I will ride all the ups and downs (hold strategy) with my core positions but scale out (trading) from other positions. Then I have always some reserve
to add more during selloffs or to fund new projects. I try to plan ahead how much reserve money I need and make myself available to as many opportunities as possible.
For long time I underestimated Liquidity Planning's importance and that has caused me to sell many positions too early (or when conditions were not most favorable) - simply
because I did not led my cash flows.
I thought that I just 'flow' and find money when opportunities lie in front of me.
Final thoughts about Crypto markets - as Crypto is going more mainstream every year and probably there are some new market participants who have never experienced
this kind of selloff then just relax - this is not the first and not the last market selloff. Remember - usually when fear is greatest there are also some good
opportunities. People tend to forget that and only focus on risks.
If some mistakes were made during previous leg up then now is good time to learn and plan ahead. That's how we evolve as traders and humans :)
Thank you and enjoy your trading :)
In
LAST BLOWOFF the coming END of buying power Since 1982 the FED has been on full throttle with the M2 money supply . Based on Debt based system anything though of being an Asset has been inflated to which I see a major turn in our Society in this year T he year of the last bubble . I look for a major CRASH into a panic into oct 2022 basis . I do not see anything that can stop what is coming . U.S debt to GDP 127 % and As of Jan 1 2020 everyones tax due is about to soar ! based on gross income . Time to prepare is at an end
Picture Perfect Cup And Handle?Given that the market structure has been pretty weak lately, if we print another rounded top on our way up to hit the cup and handle targets, ill probably scale almost 100% out of the markets.
We've been banging against overhead resistance in the middle of this channel for some time now and i would expect a pretty substantial drop after this next leg up.
Obviously nobody knows where the next top will be but i'm aiming at 80-90K, it may break up it may break down, keep your eyes on the charts and trade accordingly.
Its good to note that as we near, what i am looking at as getting close to, the end of the cycle remember to pull profits frens.
You haven't made any money until your profits are actualized.
And as always,
Good Luck And Safe Trading.
|wave5 of 3rd of a Third of a 3rd|elliotwave|WAVE3*UPDATED*LONG|As described, here is the updated chart of my 3rd in a 3rd in a 3rd of a single 5 wave motive wave from VDUMPS until now.
Notice the 1-2 1-2 1-2 beginning, requiring a concentric 4-5 4-5 4-5 finish.
Notice the degree of the 2 major corrections within the inner 3rd, the same degree. And then notice the containing wave 2 and wave 4 of the wave 3 in yellow, of the same degree again.
HIMX swing ideaI decided to take another look at HIMX on the technical level because fundamentally, this a great company and it offers some fantastic price action, plus I saw a few bullish sweep alerts, you can see the volume coming in on those further dated strikes. The volume is also high when compared to the open interest, again only on certain strikes/expiry. NASDAQ:HIMX
This is a simple swing trade.
My stop loss is $9.75.
Lot's of 20-30% moves in a short period of time.
The price has been respecting this channel it trades in, a high of around $14.00 - $16.00 and a low of where we are about now. I plan to swing it back to the $12.00/$13.00/$14.00 range.
I really like this company so I will probably exercise one or two of those contracts, they pay a dividend and my thoughts are that HIMX will trade in sympathy with the china tech and e-commerce, even though it's Taiwanese, it get's the kind of the reg-fear and volatility you see with the former. They also pay a dividend at a rate of 2.57% and a PE of 5.42 is almost free compared to most stocks.
Compare MCHP at 89 P/E and MX trading at only 12x. By the way MX chart looks like a very similar price fade in a similar way HIMX did. If semi conductors are strong the rest of the week I think we'll see HIMX start making it's move up the top of the channel.
Please share your thoughts, I'm more than obliged to hear them.
Matic on it's 3rd leg of an Impulse?Love Matic, love catching a wave. Hopefully this newbie will ride it out and not wipe out!
This is Time To Enter in ALTS COINS..& Book Quick Profits.Hello Dear Traders,
after major collapse in alts , alts marketcap is becoming green again. its time to buy cheap alts for short term profits. why short term profits only???? bcoz last weekly candle on total2 was extremely bearish also bitcoin dominance is increasing rapidly. upcoming days of alts will be not like recent altseason. market dynamics are changed completely.
Dont Hold for longterm... i m expecting alts macap will again test 1.3 trillions dollars mark again. when see total 2 is testing 1.3T immediately make plan for profit booking.
"ONLY INVEST IN TOP 50 COIN"
Doge next buy in? My thoughts only New Trader Looking for next buy in opportunities - only investing short term in and outs but maybe it’s worth Hodl ing.
Outlook on GBP/CHF Formational Rule:
Anticipating swing price to the upside, after making a new daily low last Friday and breaking Thursday low. There is a sense of divergence in volume for a high probability of change of direction with momentum from prior weeks. Minus the volatility.
Waiting for price to float to 96.60% level
When price gets to the level, wait for candlestick pattern to formate a 15 minute reversal pattern to manage multiple positions. Or a 1H engulfing candlestick rejection to the upside.
Target is a full symmetrical swing, from the pigment of price volume profile. Large order are found at 1.1960 for price to limbo
If rules are not met do not put a trade
Trade at your own risk
Don't reject us, please!What we don't want to see is a rejection at the oppisite site of the Fib Retracement.
A rejection and a subsequent lower low would be bearish, breaking the upper boundary and rising quickly would be very bullish.
I think a squeeze is imminent as short DXY is consensus and we haven't had any meaningful counterrally
Weekly Trade Recaps: CADJPY, AUDNZD, LTCUSD December 27 2020
Hello everyone:
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
Last week was somewhat quiet as we had Christmas holiday going into the weekend.
Quick going over my current positions from last week, did enter a scale in position, and that was it. There was 1 miss trade that I did not take.
CADJPY - First trade running about 2%. SL at 1:1 RR. Second trade scaled in.
AUDNZD - Running about 4% in profit. Set my SL at 3:1 RR. Happy to see the trade goes either way, either hit my SL or continue higher and break previous highs. Then I would look for continuation correction to scale in.
LTCUSD - Missed trade. Did like the overall price action, but did not have the chance to enter.
Any questions, comments or feedback please let me know.
Thank you
Jojo