DAX: Rebound expected to test the 1D MA50.DAX is trading inside a Channel Down since July 31st and lately has been on the decline after a rejection on the 1D MA50. Naturally, its 1D technical outlook is bearish (RSI = 38.140, MACD = -103.800, ADX = 23.717) but also low enough to justify a short term rebound.
We expect one last 1D MA50 that will decide the long term trend and based on the previous -6.50% pre-bearish leg, this should be on the 0.786 Fibonacci level. That is marginally under the top of the Channel Down and that is our target (TP = 15,450).
See how well our prior idea has worked:
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Indextrading
US30 D1 - Sell zone from 35,000US30 H8
We indicated the 34000 sell zone yesterday, and we have since seen a tame 1.5R from this area. Speaking with a few followers, this is something they've capitalised on. That being said, the concern for DXY downside throws a spanner in the works, and the chances of US30 pushing towards 35000 is becoming more and more.
35000 is certainly a preferred sell zone, psychological price, D1 resistance and supply, 2 previous tests. Also, this would tie in with US100 15500 target pace too.
S&P500: Bearish as long as the Megaphone holds.Bullish if brokenS&P500 hit the 4,375 target of our last signal (chart at the end) and turned neutral on the 1D technical timeframe (RSI = 54.575, MACD = -15.020, ADX = 40.128). The rise is now approaching the 1D MA50, over which the new top was formed before on the LH of the Bearish Megaphone. We will wait for the top and short, aiming at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement (TP = 4,325) as it happened with the September 7th pull back. If the price crosses over the LH, we will wait to buy on the first pull back near the 1D MA50 and target July's High (TP = 4,600).
Prior idea:
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How far is US30 going to go lower?(2)As per our previous post, the US30 had a 10% probability of going lower and it has turned around this week to confirm its bottom according to our smart money indicator. The weekly is on a Uptrend P2. The 2nd daily bottom is it's 2nd attempt to make a weekly bottom towards a weekly P1.We have taken this trade on a long position upon entry on the 4H timeframe towards a weekly P1 move.
Trade Order Details
US30(Long)
E - 33111 (4H Entry)
SL - 32810
T- TBC
To understand our ideas and videos better,we highly recommend watching our following stream videos:
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Weekly reference image:
ASX200: Thoughts and AnalysisToday's focus: ASX200
Pattern – Support/ Regular Divergence
Support – 6885
Resistance – 7000 - 7070
Thanks for checking out today’s update. Today, we have run over ASX200, breaking down the overall price picture, levels, and patterns and incorporating moving average and RSI into the analysis.
Interest today starts from the support hold we are watching from 6885. This lines up with the bottom of the overall range. We can also see regular divergence forming with price holding at this support point. This could set off a new rally that could get back up to test 7000.
If this level of support breaks and price closes below, this could break the range and set off a new overall downtrend. Are stocks a bit oversold at this point? Keep in mind we have US employment data due out this Friday.
Have a great day and good trading.
Why we are shorting the S&P Right now at 3260We have been bearish on the market for a while and have seen a massive reversal on S&P to the downside. Despite what people may say, we will continue to sell the market instead of buying.
We can now sell S&P for the following reasons.
1) Strong resistance at 4270 - 4280
2) Nice M15 Pattern.
3) We have the H4 MA and Daily MA pointing lower.
Target is 4180
How far is US30 going to go lower?(1)The US30 has been on a free fall for over a week now. As on the chart image, it is in a Downtrend Phase 1(DT P1) since it broke the structural level of 34284 on the daily timeframe. Its next level of further weakness is when it breaks the daily support level of 32583 as in the chart image. It will become a weekly DT P1 when it breaks the weekly support level of 31427.
We will wait for a trend change on the weekly before taking any short positions on the daily timeframe in correlation with the weekly timeframe. Furthermore,monthly timeframe has confirmed a compression high.
To understand our ideas and videos better,we highly recommend watching our following stream videos:
1.Trader Starter Pack 5 day video course
Look on our channel profile or at our signature section to access it
2.7 steps to achieve consistent trading performance
www.tradingview.com
3.7 steps for strategy construction
www.tradingview.com
Reference weekly image:
NASDAQ: Can hit 17,000 if the 1D MA50 breaks again.Nasdaq remains bearish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 40.412, MACD = -138.180, ADX = 35.654) but it is on the HL trendline, the supporting trendline that emerged on the December 28th 2022 low. According to the 1D RSI, comparisons can be made with the September-October 2020 consolidation fractal around the 1D MA50, following the COVID recovery. After the 1D MA50 got crossed over for the second time, the index went on to reach the 1.786 Fibonacci extension level before the next consolidation.
If the HL holds and the index breaks over the 1D MA50 again, we will have a strong long term bullish case in our hands and target 17,000 (Fibonacci 1.786).
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Nasdaq (NDX) -> Dump And PumpMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Nasdaq.
For more than 10 years the Nasdaq has been trading in a quite obvious rising channel and just recently retested and already perfectly rejected the rising support trendline.
Since the Nasdaq is now retesting the parallel resistance trendline, I first do expect a short term drop to retest the $13.000 support level and then I think that we will see another rally.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
Is US30 low at 34024 going to hold and confirm weekly bottom?(5)US30 has now recently made a lower high and is now in an extended market compression. For us to consider trailing our stop, it has to take out the first swing high at 35012 and then at 35098 as shown on chart image. Once it does take out both those levels, it has a higher probability to confirm the weekly bottom.Let's see how the trade plans out according to our smart money framework indicator.
US30(Long)
E - 34607
SL - 34023
T - To be confirmed(TBC)
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
To understand our ideas and videos better,we highly recommend watching our following stream videos:
1.Trader Starter Pack 5 day video course
Look on our channel profile or at our signature section to access it
2.7 steps to achieve consistent trading performance
www.tradingview.com
3.7 steps for strategy construction
www.tradingview.com
Refn Image of Weekly timeframe
Using Candle Wicks to refine your daytrading entriesIn the video I discuss the importance of 'Candle Wicks' in price action and how I use them to refine an entry.
I like to use the 1 minute chart for my entries and have certain criteria to trade with the trend (which I discuss in the video). When trying to trade with the predominant trend up/down, I look to trade retracements. One thing I look for is wicks into the EMAs and then a reversal of the previous candle.
I find these greatly help my timing for entries and can greatly reduce my risk.
I hope that you enjoy the video and are able to use in your own trading.
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US2000: Thoughts and AnalysisToday's focus: US2000
Pattern – Descending Triangle Pattern
Support – 1840
Resistance – 1870
Thanks for checking out today’s update. Today, we have run over US2000, breaking down the overall price picture, levels, and patterns and incorporating moving average and RSI into the analysis.
The Russel isn’t a market I normally watch or trade, but the descending triangle pattern did catch my eye today. Overall price sits in a range, but it has broken a trend on the inside and set up a LH. These patterns are normally seen as bearish after a trend break, but support looks rather firm at this stage.
With the FOMC coming up later this week, watch out for a false breakout lower that closes higher. This could set up a higher breakout. If sellers continue to push at support, look for a solid close-through support with a new failed rally that sets a new weekly low.
It’s going to be interesting to see which side gets the win here.
Have a great day and good trading.
Price Action and Trade Review for the DOW Jones IndexPrice action is key for understanding the major market bias and also for managing risk.
On top of that, understanding Price Action will give a better understanding of where other traders may be trapped and will help structure your trades.
In the video, I talk through the DOW Index and price action from the previous session. I look at where we were looking for trades and the price action that led to trapped traders getting squeezed out of the action.
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Is US30 low at 34024 going to hold and confirm weekly bottom?(4)We have entered this trade on 4h confirmation bar and it has now gone onto confirm the 2nd bottom on the daily timframe. The weekly potential bottom is still holding. For it to have a higher probability to confirm the weekly bottom, it has now got to take out the last swing high as shown in the image. Let's see how the trade plans out according to our smart money framework indicator.
US30(Long)
E - 34607
SL - 34023
T - To be confirmed(TBC)
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
To understand our ideas and videos better,we highly recommend watching our following stream videos:
1.Trader Starter Pack 5 day video course
Look on our channel profile or at our signature section to access it
2.7 steps to achieve consistent trading performance
www.tradingview.com
3.7 steps for strategy construction
www.tradingview.com
Is US30 low at 34024 going to hold and confirm weekly bottom?(3)We have entered this trade on 4h confirmation bar and it went onto confirm the bottom on the daily timframe. However, the weekly bottom is yet to confirm. For it to go further higher and have a higher probability to confirm the weekly bottom, it has got to make a second higher bottom and take out the last swing high as shown in the image. Let's see how the trade plans out according to our smart money framework indicator.
US30(Long)
E - 34607
SL - 34023
T - To be confirmed(TBC)
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
Previous chart reference image:
To understand our ideas and videos better,we highly recommend watching our following stream videos:
1.Trader Starter Pack 5 day video course
Look on our channel profile or at our signature section to access it
2.7 steps to achieve consistent trading performance
www.tradingview.com
3.7 steps for strategy construction
www.tradingview.com
NDQ100: Thoughts and analysisToday's focus: NDX100 Nasdaq
Pattern – Higher lower support point (LH Inc)
Support – 15,320 - 14,690
Resistance – 15,520 – 15,822
Thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we have run over the NDX100 on the daily chart. We have started with the overall picture and worked our way into the current short-term perspective with things we are watching and levels we view as important.
Over the subsequent few sessions, we feel that 15,520 support is key for buyers, and we would like to see them not only hold that area but form a rally that can retest 15,320 resistance. A break could get the short-term trend back up and running, but a good close below that support level could suggest the up trend could be in danger, and we may even see a new move back down to test 14,690 if sellers can really get going.
Have a great day and good trading.
Is US30 low at 34024 going to hold and confirm weekly bottom?(2)We have entered this trade on 4h confirmation bar and it went onto confirm the bottom on the daily timframe. However, the weekly bottom is yet to confirm. Let's see if it continues further upwards and go onto confirm the bottom on the weekly timeframe according to our smart money framework indicator.
US30(Long)
E - 34607
SL - 34023
T - To be confirmed(TBC)
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
To understand our ideas and videos better,we highly recommend watching our following stream videos:
1.Trader Starter Pack 5 day video course
Look on our channel profile or at our signature section to access it
2.7 steps to achieve consistent trading performance
www.tradingview.com
3.7 steps for strategy construction
www.tradingview.com
Previous reference image
Is US30 low at 34023 going to hold and become a weekly P1?We have entered on 4h confirmation bar and as of this week, the 4h bottom has gone onto confirm the bottom on the daily timframe. Let's see if it continues further upwards and go onto confirm the bottom on the weekly timeframe according to our smart money framework indicator.
US30(Long)
E - 34607
SL - 34023
T - To be confirmed(TBC)
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
To understand our ideas and videos better,we highly recommend watching our following stream videos:
1. 7 steps to achieve consistent trading performance
www.tradingview.com
2.7 steps for strategy construction
www.tradingview.com
Previous reference image
Volume spike on 4h chart
How to identify a trend move using AnchorsIn the video I discuss the concept of Anchors in trading and how I use them in my own trading.
Anchors play a major part in identifying the prime areas to trade and also in risk management when in a trade. I will discuss my prime setups and trading areas using anchors and multi-timeframe analysis.
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Day Trading the Hang Seng IndexDay trading the Hang Seng Index...explanation of the two trades for the day and the price action that led to the setups.
I talk through my approach to Day trading and how I use the indicators along with how to Manage the Risk while in a trade.
** If you like the content then take a look at the profile to get more daily ideas and learning material **
** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
Stock Index Review - Key Markets and levels to watchWe take a look at the Daily charts and price action on our Key Indexes.
It is important to have a longer term view of the price action and risk levels on the key markets so we will discuss our major markets and what we are looking for in the video.
We take a look at the following Key Indexes:-
SP500, Nasdaq, DOW, DAX, FTSE, ASX200, Hang Seng and the Nikkei.
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Trade Execution Setup Aug 4I have possibly captured all inputs for the trades taken. Please feel free to comment for any clarifications/suggestions.
1 & 2 in chart indicates 2 trading opportunities with their analysis.
Trade Opportunity 1 -
The market gap-up happened. so as per the trade plan, I was looking to short at the marked levels in the Trade Plan, but as there was no entry signal as per my trade setup, I ignored, and waited.
Observed a beautiful price compression breakout. Entered an ATM strike price at the compression breakout, but small SL was taken as the price did not move as expected.
Waited for the next trade opportunity.
Trade Opportunity 2 -
The market showed continuous signs of fatigue which were evident through the price action in 15 min,5 min, and 75 min.
1)15 min Candles were all Hammers, Shooting stars for about 1H+.
2)75 min showed rejection at 50% Fib level of Previous swing high. 5 min TF
3) 5 min showed a triple top sort of formation.
Hence eyed a PE ATM strike and entered a quick scalp based on 1 min Price compression/Triangle pattern breakout, 1:1.5 RR.
So was able to end the day at 5% ROI.