U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC) Rep: 2.9% ✅ Lower Than Expected ✅ Exp: 3.0% Prev: 3.2% U.S. Headline PCE Rep: 2.6% ✅ In Line with Expectations ✅ Exp: 2.6% Prev: 2.6% Historical Core PCE Norms On the chart you can see that since 1990 the typical Core PCE range is between 1 - 3% (red dotted lines on chart). We are slowly getting back down into this...
The Japanese yen is drifting on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.80, up 0.10%. Tokyo Core CPI reached a significant milestone today, falling to 1.6% y/y in January, after a December reading of 2.1%. This was the first time the indicator dropped below the Bank of Japan's 2% target since May 2022. The main driver of the decline was lower...
Fibonacci says BTC is going to struggle. 61% says.. time for a pullback the only hope for BTC is more cheap money from the central bankers. Real interest rates are still negative while profilgate government spending is increasing. the private sector is maxed out on debt so the government will take over as the debt slave to fund worthless projectors in schools. I...
The Japanese yen has edged lower on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.62, up 0.08%. The US economy continues to surprise with stronger-than-expected data. On Wednesday, the services and manufacturing PMIs both accelerated and beat the estimates, followed by first-estimate GDP for the fourth quarter earlier today. The economy...
TMV on the 4H chart appears to be reversing a trend down since 12/28. YTD it is rising. The reasonable target is the Fib 0.5 retracement at $40 while support for a stop loss just below the POC line of the volume profile is $29.25. As such this is a 35% upside. The RSI indicator shows the fast RSI rising and crossing over the slower RSI while the relative...
CBOT: Wheat ( CBOT:ZW1! ) In stark contrast to the rising stock market, most agricultural commodities have lost ground in 2023. In the Grain & Oilseeds market, CBOT Soybean (ZS) finished the year at $12.73 per bushel, down 14.7% year-on-year. CBOT Corn (ZC) closed at $4.63/bushel, down 30.8% YOY. CBOT Wheat (ZW) settled at $5.93/bushel, down 24.5%. In the...
The British pound has weakened slightly on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2682, down 0.18%. The markets were expecting a letdown from December retail sales after a strong November reading, but nobody was expecting a multi-year drop. Yet that's what happened, as retail sales plunged 3.2% m/m, the lowest level since January 2021....
The British pound has edged lower on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2655, down 0.20%. What goes up must come down. That has the markets fretting ahead of the UK retail sales report on Friday. Retail sales growth was brisk in November, with an impressive gain of 1.3% m/m. This followed zero growth in October and marked the strongest...
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, January 18: Technical Analysis: Gold price finds a temporary support near $2,000 Gold price attempts a firm-footing near psychological support at $2,000 amid a nominal decline in the US Dollar Index. The near-term demand for the precious metal has turned bearish as it has slipped below the 50-period Exponential Moving...
The British pound has started the week with slight losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2725, down 0.21%. The UK will release employment data on Tuesday and the spotlight will be on wage growth. Over the past few months, wages have been falling and the Bank of England would like to see that trend continue as wages have been driving inflation....
I still believe there is a chance to see BTC at 70k in 2023 before a second inflationary period in 2023-2024 that will drive BTC down again. This is in line with one of my melt-up scenarios I posted in 2021.
Core and Headline PPI (Dec 2023 figures) U.S. Headline PPI Prev: 0.8% / Exp: 1.3% Rep: 1.0% ✅ Lower than expected ✅ U.S. Core PPI (excludes food and energy) Prev: 2.0% / Exp: 1.9% Rep: 1.8% ✅ Lower Than Expected✅ What is PPI and why is it important? Producer Price Index is a crucial economic indicator that provides valuable information about...
Yesterday, the market became slightly spooked by the release of higher-than-expected inflation numbers in the United States. The immediate reaction of the SPX to the news was negative, with the index erasing its early gains; the same price action could be observed in the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Nevertheless, market indices recovered much of...
The British pound is showing limited movement on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2769, up 0.05%. The British economy grew in November by 0.3% m/m, rebounding from a 0.3% decline in October and edging above the market estimate of 0.2%. This was the sharpest GDP growth since July and was driven by stronger activity in services, retail sales...
The British pound is unchanged on Thursday, trading at 1.2741 in Europe. We could see some movement from the pound in the North American session following the release of the US inflation report. On Friday, the UK releases GDP, which is expected to show a 0.2% gain in November, after a 0.3% decline a month earlier. US inflation fell dramatically in 2023 and we'll...
Core and Headline CPI NEW CPI Figures released tomorrow Thursday 11th Jan 2024 @ 7:30am Central (for the December 2023 month) U.S. Headline CPI Prev: 3.1% Exp: 3.2% Rep: TBC Tomorrow U.S. Core CPI Prev: 4.0% Exp: 3.8% Rep: TBC Tomorrow Will the US Core CPI finally fall below 4% for the first time since May 2021? Core vs Headline (the difference) You...
The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6685, down 0.51%. Australia's retail sales sparkled in November but the strong rebound wasn't reflected in the Australian dollar. Retail sales climbed 2.0% m/m in November, blowing past the estimate of 1.2% and recovering from a revised 0.4% decline...
This Friday we met the 0.5 Fib retracement level from the last breakout. Wall street snapped on its 9 week winning streak. Mixed with both fear and hope to number of expected rate cuts in the current year of 2024, recent commodities price had shown re-incarnation followed by increasing tension in regions including Mid-east, Korea, and Ukraina. Major AI stocks...