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Inflation

S&P500 short analysis!!30 min time frame. used Fibonacci to draw (ABC) correction waves. this days, US markets are been a lot volatile. LET ME KEEP MY OPINION OF WHY MARKETS ARE VOLATILE: SINCE MANY OF THEM THINK THAT US INFLATION HAS REACHED ITS PEAK, AND ON THE FLIP SIDE MANY OTHERS THINK IT YET MORE NEEDS TO TRAVEL UP. this basically is causing a lot of volume in the markets. bulls and bears are acting to there strategy. ONE TIP: during volatile markets, be on cash, or invest in low risk assets. be careful, keep having an eye. trade with your own risk.
SP:SPXShort
by raghavchoudhary2016
USD/MXN at support ahead of BanxicoUSD/MXN has been moving lower since April 2020 in a descending triangle. On a weekly timeframe, the pair found a zone of support between 19.5491 and 20.0338. USD/MXN bounced a number of times and tested the top downward sloping trendline of the channel, failing each time. As USD/MXN nears the apex of the triangle, is it ready to break lower? On May 30th, the pair pierced the low and made it to 19.4116 but bounced right back into the range. This week, the pair traded as low as 19.4310. If USD/MXN breaks 19.4116, there is a confluence of support at the bottom trendline of the pair’s recent channel and the lows from February 2020 near 18.5235. Resistance sits above at 19.7530 and 20.0000. Expectations are that the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is expected to hike rates by 75bps to bring the rate to 10%. If Banxico hikes by more than 75bps and is hawkish, watch for USD/MXN to break lower!
by FOREXcom
Euro backtracks after strong rallyEUR/USD has reversed course today and is in negative territory. In the North American session, the euro is trading at 1.0043, down 0.30%. The US dollar has rebounded after a 3-day slide against the major currencies. The dollar downswing started on Friday after a lukewarm employment report raised expectations that the Fed will deliver a "modest" 50-basis point, rather than a 75 bp move at the December meeting. This was followed by a short covering move on Monday which sent the dollar sharply lower, as risk appetite jumped ahead of the US midterms and Thursday's inflation report. The euro made the most of the dollar's weakness, rising 250 points in an impressive 3-day rally. The US dollar has rebounded against the majors today, including the euro. With the Federal Reserve remaining aggressive, even a 0.50% should be enough to give the dollar a boost, as rate differentials continue to widen. Inflation is running at a double-digit clip in the eurozone, but it's doubtful that the ECB will keep pace with the Fed, as the eurozone economy remains weak and higher rates are likely to tip the economy into a recession. The markets are keeping an eye on the US midterm elections, which are tighter than expected, as the Democrats are fighting to retain control of both the House and the Senate. Investors are focussing on Thursday's October US inflation report, which will be a key factor in Fed rate policy. Inflation is expected to have eased slightly, with headline inflation dropping to 8.0% (8.2% prior) and core inflation slowing to 6.5% (6.6%).  A drop in the October reading will raise expectations for the Fed to raise rates by 0.50% at the December meeting. EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0134 and 1.0293 There is support at 1.0047 and 0.9888
by OANDA
7
USDCAD:BULLS TAKE CONTROL AMIDST CPITreasury yields recover from the previous day's losses as worries about China's economic slowdown and US government gridlock combine. The government is continuing its zero-tolerance policy, and the severity of the cases isn't showing a similar correlation, so the chances of China reopening have shifted to the downside. With the most recent addition of 8,335 for November 2008, China reports the highest levels of new COVID cases in six months, while also marking a new virus-led lockdown in Guangzhou's second district. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, there is a 35% chance that the US economy will experience a recession in the coming year. The extreme difference between the desired inflation target and the current inflation rate, the aggressive tightening of Fed policy, and the extraordinarily uncertain conditions in US domestic politics and geopolitics are the causes of the rising recession fears. The US dollar index (DXY) has since printed a new seven-week low at 109.35, showing a less assured pullback
Long
by TradeyMarkets
Metals to Break its All Time High AgainMetals to Break its All Time High. I have discussed about Gold before and in this tutorial we will study into Copper. From last week Fed chairman statement, he said “it is premature to be talking about pausing our rate hike. We have a ways to go." The continuous inflation is almost a certainty into next year, and what asset or instrument works well with inflation? Content: Why interest in copper again • Fundamental • Technical 5 Major Copper Uses: • Building Construction • Electronic Products • Transportation • Industrial Machinery & Equipment • Medical Copper Consumption Worldwide: 1. China 54% 2. Europe 15% 3. Other Asia 14% 4. America 11% 5. Other 6% Source: Statista 2021 Minimum fluctuation 0.0005 per pound = $12.50 0.001 = $25 0.01 = $250 0.1 = $2,500 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:HG1!
by konhow
2
DXY consolidating, but watch out for the next move!!Anticipate higher volatility in the DXY today with the US Congressional Elections due. However, this news event is unlikely to cause a significant change in the longer-term trend. As the DXY trades along the 110.35 price level, look for a possible rebound on the DXY. If the DXY trades above the 110.70 price level, the price could continue higher toward the next resistance level of 111.77. Be prepared for the major news on the horizon, the US CPI y/y data release on Thursday at 9:30pm (GMT+8). It could very likely lead to a stronger USD regardless of the data... Why? Because if the CPI is released as expected at 7.9%, this would indicate that the interest rate increases from the Feds are taking effect, spurring confidence for more rate increases. And if CPI is sticky and still showing above 8%, then the Feds would have to continue increasing rates to combat further inflation growth.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
BUY THE DIP: Inflation Month Is Back. USDCAD Likely To Rise!As the eye can see, DXY is consolidating against all major currency pairs. Meaning its likely taking a slight breathing room before the major uptrend resumes. With the major CPI report due this week, all the eyes would be without a doubt on the numbers that would print. Anyhow there are two likely scenarios here that might take place and how it would affect the DXY: SCENARIO 1: CPI PRINTED AS EXPECTED If the CPI is printed as expected or slightly lower, it means that the FED'S weapon to lower the inflation is working slowly slowly however the numbers would still be considerably high near 8% YOY which is way way above FED'S target. This would mean that the FED might continue to raise rates to lower the inflation but not that aggressively. Meaning the DXY would still be more attractive compared to other currency long term. So its still bullish SCENARIO 2: CPI PRINTED HIGHER THAN EXPECTED If the CPI prints a lot higher than expected lets say it becomes 8.3% or higher, then we could practically assume that the FED'S tool is not working and they would likely take a more aggressive stance . The market's reaction at this point of time would be to BUY the DXY which would make the DXY appreciate. Of the above two scenarios, number 1 seems to be more likely and practical. Shall scenario 1 take place, we can expect the DXY to consolidate and give us a buying opportunity at a good price. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON USDCAD LONG TRADE Here we have USDCAD weekly chart, we can likely expect this pair to retrace lower which would give us an ideal entry before the major uptrend resumes. Kindly for the technical analysis have a look at the main chart. Trade Safely & Cautiously
Long
by FX618Analysis
$USOIL $97 short-term target 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* Hello fellow traders and investors! My team isn't expecting oil/gas demand to slow down anytime soon. A long-term target of $132 and beyond is on the horizon. Ever since the war in Ukraine began the Biden administration has been trying their hardest to keep prices down by releasing war-time oil reserves periodically. This is a temporary solution, and my team believes that it will eventually lead to a blow off top. Raising interest rates seems to be the feds only solution to combating the situation, yet it has become evidently clear that they have no idea what to do and whether or not this will actually solve the issue. These are just our thoughts surrounding the situation and things could change quickly with the emergence of new information. We hope that this helps! !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TVC:USOILLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
NGAS: Will Demand for Natural Gas Increase With Climate Change?Natural Gas's all-time price action/chart suggest that it is due for a sizeable, generational bull run, to start within the next 3 years. One could blame it on war or climate change or politics but I am not smart enough to determine which may be the actual cause, if any. I can instead deduct from NGAS' wavemap that we are unlikely to enjoy the low prices we've seen during the early 90s or at late as Spring 2020. I've never looked at an inflation chart or have been able to determine what's next for us in that regard but I think this commodity alone can give us some decent expectations. What happens if/when it costs 20x more to keep your home cool in the summer (or warm in the winter)? With an extended diagonal wave in primary Wave 1 of NGAS, we can expect that primary Wave 3 will be likely extended beyond the 1.618 level. We cannot say that this will occur for sure but it is as likely as it ever is. After finding possible support below $5 in 2024, this commodity could make citizens want to hit the rewind button irl. By 2037-2040, Natural Gas could and should be more than the price of Oil. At this point and time, I genuinely believe that NGAS will go 40X within the next 15 years. This is indication that I've found through continued analysis of price action. I have no reason to doubt this perspective but am well aware that it could be invalidated upon any given day. For continued analysis of this worldwide commodity and help with taking advantage of a possibly upcoming generational swings, come surf with me and the Digital Surf Trading Community.
NLong
by DigitalSurfTrading
2
Inflation - Interest Rate - Market OutlookThe graph above shows the correlation between the Interest rate, Inflation and the SPX500. (Max timeframe by tradingview) Once the Inflation goes up, the FED tries to up the interest rate. Once it reaches a plateau and goes sideways, the market goes down ("soft landing", "growth recession","please insert"). So far we didn't reach the peak of rate hikes by the FED, the inflation is still extremely high. So far there is no reason to be bullish again about the SPX500 . How a "soft landing" is possible, idk. Historically, the market has to contract and SPX500 should go down during the next 6 months.
SP:SPX
by zzaaiiggaa
$GME rare opportunity 👁‍🗨 *This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* Here @SimplyShowMeTheMoney we strive to educate our traders on the importance of being able to recognize rare occurrences in the market structure on a chart. Today GameStop $GME presented us with a rare opportunity in its structure that my team simply could not ignore. We watched $GME open at 12% and shoot up to around 20% before retracing all gains back down to the negative 1 hour before the final bell. This comes as we enter a busy earnings week with a 2-day fed meeting that begins tomorrow and numerous data reports that could ultimately dictate the direction of the feds and the market. $GME is no stranger to making headlines. With midterm elections right around the corner we wouldn't be surprised if $GME made a ridiculous move in either direction. My team was able to secure shares of $GME at $28 while it was red this afternoon. We have an automatic stop loss set at $27 due to the obvious risk factors associated with $GME. Entry: $28 Stop loss: $27 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
NYSE:GMELong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
4
Euro stems nasty slide, NFP loomsEUR/USD has rebounded and is in positive territory. In the European session, the euro is trading at 0.9794, up 0.45%. The upswing has ended a 3-day slide, in which the euro fell as much as 270 points. The manufacturing sector in the eurozone continues to struggle. German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs are mired in contraction territory and German Factory Orders for September, published today, declined by a sharp 4.0%. A weak global economy has dampened manufacturing activity, and the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis in Western Europe will likely continue to take a toll on the eurozone economy. The grim economic outlook is a major headache for ECB policymakers, who must maneuver delicately between soaring inflation and a weak eurozone economy. The ECB joined the rate-hiking dance late and finds itself well behind the inflation curve, as headline inflation in the eurozone jumped to a staggering 10.7% in October, up from 9.9% in September. The ECB has little choice but to deliver an oversize rate hike in order to tackle double-digit inflation, and ECB President Lagarde has said that she would use "all the tools" available to bring inflation back to the ECB's 2% target. All eyes are on today's US nonfarm payroll report. The labour market has been resilient in the face of steep rate hikes, although we are seeing a jump in job cuts. The consensus for the October NFP stands at 200,000, lower than the September reading of 263,000. The release will be carefully watched by the Fed, as the strength of the labor market is an important factor in the December rate decision. The markets have priced in a 50/50 toss-up between a hike of 0.50% or 0.75%, which could translate into volatility for the US dollar in today's North American session. EUR/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.9818. Next, there is resistance at 0.9956 0.9669 and 0.9531 are providing support
by OANDA
DAX crosses the 100 day EMA for the third time this yearThe DAX30 has once again crossed the 100 day EMA for the third time this year. After the previous two crosses, the index went ahead to lose an average of 15%. The index has already reached a trough of 27.55% this year with each drop weakening and bear exhaustion showing up as evident from MACD divergence. The index has priced in a lot of bad news including the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, high inflation pressuring consumers budgets and ECB rate hikes. It is highly unlikely that a recession in Europe has been priced in. The BoE acknowledged that the UK entered a recession in Q3. Eurozone PMIs released this week showed that manufacturing is already in recession territory. Pessimism in the sector is still high but supply chain pressures seem to be falling amidst falling orders. The question on my mind is how deep the recession in Europe will be and how long it will last. I'm currently bearish on European indices as bullish sentiment or lack of bearish price action shows a disconnect from fundamentals. Looking at volume flow (FDAX futures), it can be seen that short positions have largely reduced from a peak of 125K in September to the current 33K. Long positions have also fallen from 134K in Oct to 92K. This implies that the current bullish price action has no legs. This can be collaborated with On Balance Volume showing that inflows might have peaked at the August - September highs. In summary, this is why I'm still bearish and looking to sell the rips: Recession in Europe not priced in or at least partly priced in. Inflation is still a sore thorn for Europe with YoY increases crossing the 10% mark. Volume flows for traders are showing signs for peaking.
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by GrizzlyBearBee