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NZD/USD Climbs to Highest Level Since February 16The NZD/USD pair has climbed for two consecutive days and reached its highest level since February 16. The Kiwi, being sensitive to market risk, has benefited from the current risk-on environment, as the USD remains subdued. However, the bulls are wary and are looking for fresh impetus from the crucial US Core PCE Price Index. The NZD/USD pair has gained positive momentum for two successive days and touched a peak not seen since February 16. However, the pair has encountered resistance near the 0.6300 mark, and the spot prices are currently trading within the range of 0.6270-0.6275 during the early European session. The prevailing positive tone around equity markets has provided a significant boost to the risk-sensitive Kiwi, as investors' confidence is on the rise with the fears of a full-blown banking crisis diminishing. The hope for a robust economic recovery in China has added to the investors' optimism, and the official Chinese PMI data for March has shown the fastest growth in the services sector in 12 years. Though the growth in the manufacturing sector has slowed down, it is still higher than expected. The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's rate-hike path has made it difficult for the USD to gain any traction. This has further increased the appeal of the NZD/USD pair. The Fed had recently signaled that it might pause the rate-hiking cycle due to the banking sector's turmoil. However, with the possibility of a widespread banking crisis averted, there are speculations that the US central bank might return to its inflation-fighting rate hikes. Moreover, three Fed officials have backed the case for more rate increases to lower high levels of inflation. Despite the bullish sentiments for the NZD/USD pair, traders are hesitant to take aggressive bearish bets on the USD. They are waiting on the sidelines, anticipating the release of the US Core PCE Price Index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. This data is expected to play a crucial role in influencing market expectations about the next policy move, and it could drive demand for the USD in the near term. This, in turn, will determine the direction of the next move for the major.
by FOREXN1
3
GOLD:Price Rises on Weak USDollar and Easing Banking Crisis FearThe price of gold is fluctuating within a bullish chart pattern that has been in place for the past two weeks. Recently, there has been a lack of momentum, but the decrease in concerns regarding a banking crisis, along with a weaker US Dollar, has led to an increase in demand for gold. This, combined with hopes of positive core inflation data from the Eurozone and the United States, and tensions between China and the US, has propelled the XAU/USD bulls. During Friday's Asian session, the XAU/USD reached $1,980, reversing the previous week's losses ahead of key inflation data from both the United States and Eurozone. It is worth noting that despite concerns regarding further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the gold price is being driven by a risk-on mood and a lack of conviction in the Fed's stance. The weak performance of the US Dollar is also contributing to the rise in the gold price, even though the hawkish Fed concerns and mostly positive US data are challenging buyers of XAU/USD. The increase in the XAU/USD could also be linked to quarter-end positioning of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which has been on a three-week downtrend, with bears pushing it to the 102.15 level. Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and three other Fed Officials backing further rate hikes, mixed US data has cast doubt on the hawkish rhetoric of Fed policymakers, thereby allowing the gold price to remain strong. This has been due to sluggish yields and hopes of a secure banking system. Mixed US data and a risk-on mood have failed to strengthen the US 10-year Treasury bond yields, which remain under pressure at around 3.55%, while the two-year counterpart is on track for its first weekly gain in four, currently grinding higher around 4.12%. Hence, sluggish yields, mixed data, and a mostly positive sentiment have combined to allow the gold price to remain strong.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
19
EUR/USD Reverses Gains as Greenback Strengthens Ahead Key DataEUR/USD Reverses Recent Gains as Greenback Gains Strength Ahead of Key Data Releases After four consecutive daily advances, the EUR/USD has given up some ground at the end of the week. The German docket's disappointing results, combined with renewed buying interest in the greenback, have contributed to the reversal of the recent multi-session upside. Despite this setback, the ECB's expected rate hikes in May are likely to lend support to the pair's upside momentum, especially as there is growing speculation that the Federal Reserve might decide to hold rates at its next gathering. The weekly uptrend in EUR/USD has encountered a formidable barrier around the monthly highs near 1.0930 on Friday. In Germany's domestic calendar, Retail Sales contracted 7.1% in the year to February, while the March jobs report showed the Unemployment Change increased by 16K persons, and the Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 5.6%. Later in the session, flash inflation figures in the euro area will take center stage ahead of ECB Chairwoman C. Lagarde's speech. Meanwhile, in the US, all eyes are on the PCE inflation measurement, Personal Income/Spending, and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Long
by FOREXN1
14
GBP/USD Aiming to Retest Two-Month HighThe GBP/USD currency pair is aiming to re-test its two-month high of 1.2448 during the Asian session, as market sentiment remains optimistic. Despite expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining a steady monetary policy, the Cable is attracting bullish bets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently defending the 102.20 support level, as the receding fears of the United States banking crisis have opened the possibility of a continuation of the policy-tightening spell by the Fed. Investors are anticipating the release of the core US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index (Feb) data, which is expected to remain steady at 4.7% annually. Meanwhile, the prices of goods and services have accelerated by 0.4%, lower than the former expansion of 0.6%, causing the USD Index to exhibit unpredictable movements above the 102.20 support level. The BoE's monetary outlook has varying opinions, which will likely cause the Pound Sterling to be volatile. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, the likelihood of the Fed maintaining an unchanged monetary policy in May has fallen below 50%.
Long
by FOREXN1
7
GBP/USD Targets 1.2400 Region Despite Softening ToneThe GBP/USD pair is expected to continue its upward trend with the next noteworthy target at the 1.2400 region. In our analysis yesterday, we noted that despite the recent gains, there was no significant increase in the upward momentum. However, we also mentioned that there was still some room for GBP to rise to 1.2370 before the possibility of a pullback arose. GBP did reach a high of 1.2362 during London trade before experiencing a slight decline to finish the day at 1.2314 (-0.22%). While the underlying tone has softened somewhat, any expected decrease is likely to be part of a 1.2270/1.2340 range, and a clear break below 1.2270 is deemed improbable.
Long
by FOREXN1
7