GBPJPY targeting 172.250. Excellent long-term pattern.The GBPJPY pair has been rebounding strongly since the November 11 Low within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The Low was made on the Inner Higher Lows trend-line, that has had four hit-and-holds since May 12.
Based on the 1D MACD also, this sequence resembles the April 20 - June 09 fractal, whose rebound reached the previous High, which is now the Resistance at 172.250. This is the short-term target.
On the long-term you see that the pattern is an Ascending Triangle (since March 2021 and we are close to the Higher Highs Zone. Every hit either on the dashed or top trend-line is a sell opportunity, until the pattern is invalidated.
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Japaneseyen
EURJPY: Your Detailed Trading Plan 🇪🇺🇯🇵
EURJPY is trading within a falling channel on a daily.
I am looking for shorting opportunities from its resistance line.
My plan is the following:
I will patiently wait for a test of the underlined red area,
then, I will look for a breakout of a support line of a rising wedge pattern on 4h time frame.
Once the candle closes below that, I will short expecting a bearish continuation to 144.5 / 143.8.
Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the resistance of the channel on a daily will intiate a bullish move.
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USDJPY: Your Trading Plan For This Week 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Hey traders,
Analyzing a daily chart on USDJPY, I noticed that the market is stuck within a narrow horizontal range.
The price perfectly respects a key horizontal support & resistance.
This week, look for a breakout trade.
A bullish breakout of 140.4 - 140.8 (daily candle close above) will be a bullish signal,
and will lead to a continuation to 143.0 level.
A bearish breakout of 137.4 - 137.7 (daily candle close below) will push the market lower.
Next support will be 136.1.
Wait for a breakout, that will indicate us the future direction of the market.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
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InvestMate|EUR/JPY is just getting started💶💴💶💴EUR/JPY is just getting started.
💶💴The post is a commentary on my previous posts on the EUR/JPY in which I announced declines:
💶💴Those wishing to get a deeper perspective are referred to above.
💶💴At the moment, I just wanted to draw attention to the approaching strong support zone that stems from the 0.618 fibo level of the entire upward wave and I believe that, this is the level for the coming days that can be broken within a week or two.
InvestMate|NZD/JPY So what, are we falling?🥝🥝NZD/JPY So what, are we falling?
🥝As I have written in previous post featuring the Japanese yen pairs that we are ready to fall.
🥝That will also be the case this time.
🥝There is an interesting situation ahead, on the New Zealand dollar we are preparing for a strong downward correction coupled with the long-term uptrend on the Japanese yen that has started. A strong downward wave is in front of us.
🥝We are currently at a resistance zone that has been respected for months. The price has repeatedly struggled to break through these levels.
🥝The most significant support zones will be two zones.
🥝 The first determined by the cluster of the fibo level 0.382 of the entire upward wave and the outer fibo level 1.272 measuring the last upward impulse.
🥝The second based on a cluster of the 0.5 level of the entire upward wave and the outer fibo level 1.618 measuring the last upward impulse.
🥝The scenario I am playing out is to expect a strong wave of strengthening of the Japanese Yen against the New Zealand Dollar heading into support zones not excluding minor corrections along the way.
🥝*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases.
🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
InvestMate|USD/JPY No chance of rises💱💱USD/JPY No chance of rises.
💱As I wrote in last post about the declines on the USD/JPY pair, the scenario played out perfectly exactly as I wrote. Link to the post below:
💱This time we will take another look at the pair, as I believe new downside prospects are opening up.
💱The key from where a new wave of declines could start could be the resistance zone I've marked on the chart.
💱 All due to a cluster of levels. At the very beginning we have the level of 0.5 of the whole last upward wave, then the level of 0.236 of the whole downward wave and the range of the biggest upward correction in the current downtrend, i.e. the level of 1:1.
💱 I encourage you to observe these levels because there is a good chance that after a bounce from this level we will take a southward direction.
💱The level where the price can stop is the support zone, which I determined on the basis of the level of 0.786 of the whole upward wave and this place has been respected many times in the past as resistance and support.
💱The scenario I am playing out is a continuation of declines from the resistance zones towards the support zone, not excluding corrections along the way.
🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
US interest rate, and exchange rate of Japan Yen and Korean WonThe trend of Japanese Yen and Korean Won within most of year 2022, as can be observed when reading together with the chart of USinterest rate, show how closely linked their relationship are.
Recently government of relevant countries have been attempting to change this situation by putting money into the foreign currency exchange market, but as long as interest rate of each of those countries aren't increasing accordingly, and US interest rate still keeping up, no change in this trend is expected.
💵U.S.Dollar/Japanese Yen 💵Analyze (10/21/2022)!!!U.S.Dollar/Japanese Yen moved as I expected 👇✅.
PRZ (Price Reversal Zone) worked very well.
It seems, U.S.Dollar/Japanese Yen completed main wave 3, and now it is on the road to making the main wave 4.
I showed you the next target for U.S.Dollar/Japanese Yen in my chart.
🔅U.S.Dollar/Japanese Yen Analyze ( USDJPY ) Timeframe 2D⏰
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
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CHFJPY: Short Trade Explained 🇨🇭🇯🇵
Hey traders,
On a yesterday's live stream, we discussed a shorting setup on CHFJPY:
the price reached a horizontal key level on 4H and formed a head and shoulders pattern then.
This morning, its neckline went broken.
I believe that the pair will drop soon to 144.65 support.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
USDJPY below a level that was a Support since September 2021!The USDJPY pair made a strong rejected shortly after our previous analysis where we called for a strong sell at the top of the (now) 6-month Bullish Megaphone pattern:
Following a fake-out just above the Megaphone, the rejection was much stronger and so far much longer that any of the previous ones in 2022. The price not only broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but also the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which has been the long-term Support and unbroken since September 23 2021 and where the previous Megaphone Higher Low was made (August 02 2022).
Right now the 1D MA100 is being tested as a Resistance, which the price has failed to break on 4 straight days. The more it fails, the more likely it is to test the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Megaphone and if broken, target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). A closing above the 1D MA100 however, targets the 1D MA50 but as with early August, this still doesn't restore the uptrend. The pair typically needs a clear closing above the 1D MA50 to do so, in which case we can expect at least the 0.618 Fib to be tested if not the previous High.
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GBPJPY: Your Detailed Trading Plan 🇬🇧🇯🇵
Update for GBPJPY.
After a strong bearish wave, the market is correcting within a rising wedge pattern.
To catch the next trend-following move, wait for a bearish breakout of its support.
We need a 4h candle close below that to confirm the breakout.
A bearish continuation will be expected to 164.55 / 163.75 levels then.
Good luck!
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InvestMate|EUR/JPY BOJ DO SOMETHING💶💴💶💴EUR/JPY BOJ DO SOMETHING
💶💴Another post/update of my view on the eur/jpy pair. Link to previous post below:
💶💴I will zoom in on the fundamentals:
💶Looking at economic growth in the Eurozone we are at levels of 2.1% This is quite average looking at the past.
💴Compared to Japan where we are currently at 1.6% this is also quite average looking at past periods.
tradingeconomics.com
💶 Unemployment in the Eurozone is falling - the latest reading on 3 November showed a drop to 6.6% compared to last reading of 6.7%.
💴 In Japan, on the other hand, unemployment rose from 2.5% to 2.6%.
💶 A week ago, on 17 November to be precise, the inflation reading, which was 10.7% on 31 October. The market is betting on a slowdown in inflation in the coming months.
💴 In the case of Japan, inflation is gaining momentum even though we have maintained a 3% growth the market is betting that during the next data due on 17 November we could break this barrier and rise to levels of 3.2%.
💶 Eurozone interest rates were raised by 75 basis points at the last council meeting on 27 October to 2%.
💴 In Japan, of course, no change, the council kept rates at -0.1% at its last meeting, but with inflation gaining momentum, further moves remain uncertain. For now, the market is pricing in an unchanged rate at the next decision on 22 November.
💶💴 Now that we know the fundamental environment, let's turn to the chart.
💶💴Today brought nothing new. We attacked the 145.400 level again and there was an unsuccessful attempt to go down to yesterday's lows.
💶💴All due to low volatility on the Japanese. And uncertainty as to which way the Euro should go.
💶💴 Looking more broadly at the market and seeing that the Japanese on most pairs is preparing for a massive appreciation and the Euro on most pairs is waiting for the right moment to make a correction of uptrend.
💶💴These 2 separate events combined in a single chart could produce the massive price waterfall I wrote about in the previous post.
💶💴On the chart I determined a few things using technical analysis:
💶💴Firstly I determined the upward channel we are currently in.
💶💴Then I measured the entire downward wave using the fibo. We can see a triple attack on the 0.618 level which we failed to break out of.
💶💴Next I measured the current upward impulse to find potential support zones.
💶💴Then I measured the largest correction of this upward impulse in order to determine the 1:1 level of this correction.
💶💴By measuring the current uptrend impulse and the 1:1 correction, I found an interesting cluster of levels at 0.618 and 1:1 near 143.600
💶💴In the vicinity of the 0.618 level I determined a strong resistance zone. Due to the fact that the price repeatedly tried to break out of this level unsuccessfully
💶💴The scenario I am playing out is the eur/jpy pair descending to support levels as a result of the Bank of Japan intervening to strengthen the Japanese Yen.
💶💴*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases.
🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
InvestMate|EUR/JPY Outlook Update💶💴💶💴EUR/JPY Outlook Update
💶💴This is yet another post in which I will try to give a more detailed presentation of my downside scenario on this pair. Because I think that price is still expensive.
💶💴Beginning with the fundamentals:
💶Looking at economic growth in the Eurozone we are at levels of 2.1% This is quite average looking at the past.
💴Compared to Japan where we are currently at 1.6% this is also quite average looking at past periods.
tradingeconomics.com
💶 Unemployment in the Eurozone is falling - the latest reading on 3 November showed a drop to 6.6% compared to last reading of 6.7%.
💴 In Japan, on the other hand, unemployment rose from 2.5% to 2.6%.
💶 A week ago, on 17 November to be precise, the inflation reading, which was 10.7% on 31 October. The market is betting on a slowdown in inflation in the coming months.
💴 In the case of Japan, inflation is gaining momentum even though we have maintained a 3% growth the market is betting that during the next data due on 17 November we could break this barrier and rise to levels of 3.2%.
💶 Eurozone interest rates were raised by 75 basis points at the last council meeting on 27 October to 2%.
💴 In Japan, of course, no change, the council kept rates at -0.1% at its last meeting, but with inflation gaining momentum, further moves remain uncertain. For now, the market is pricing in an unchanged rate at the next decision on 22 November.
💶💴 Now that we know the fundamental environment, let's turn to the chart.
💶💴I will present all the tools I used in turn:
💶💴1 I have plotted the uptrend channel from the start of the strong breakout to the top.
💶💴2. I measured with a fibo grid the entire upward wave.
💶💴3. I measured the last downward impulse using the fibo.
💶💴4. I measured the largest downward correction in the entire upward impulse to determine the extent of the 1:1 correction.
💶💴5 I determined two support zones.
💶💴(1) Based on the 1:1 level of the largest downward correction and the 0.5 level of the entire upward impulse.
💶💴(2) Based on the 0.618 level and the previous strong price reactions, from this point the price made a rise to new peaks.
💶💴6. I determined a resistance zone based on the 0.5 level and where price has reacted in the past.
💶💴The scenario I am playing out is a final descent to the 0.618 levels of the entire downward wave.
💶💴*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases.
🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
USDJPY: Key Levels to Watch 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Here is my latest structure analysis for USDJPY:
Resistance 1: 140.37 - 142.47 area
Resistance 2: 145.1 - 145.6 area
Resistance 3: 148.3 - 148.9 area
Resistance 4: 151.34 - 151.92 area
Support 1: 137.48 - 138.0 area
Support 2: 135.16 - 136.45 area
Support 3: 130.38 - 131.75 area
The price is currently stuck between Resistance 1 and Support 1.
The future direction of the market will be determined by a breakout of one of these structures.
Alternatively, consider pullback trading from them
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
CADJPY: Local Bullish Outlook 🇨🇦🇯🇵
Quick update for CADJPY pair.
I spotted one more bullish clue:
the price broke and closed above a minor falling trend line on 1H.
I believe that the market will reach 105.6 / 105.8 levels soon.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
USDJPY: Bearish Outlook 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY broke and closed below a strong intraday structure resistance recently.
Retesting that structure, the price formed 2 cute double tops: tiny one and bigger one.
I believe that the pair will drop lower.
Goals: 138.78 / 138.07
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Japan’s GDP decline fuels greenback’s reboundEUR/USD 🔽
GBP/USD 🔽
AUD/USD 🔽
USD/CAD 🔼
USD/JPY 🔼
XAU 🔽
WTI 🔽
Early this morning, the collection of Japan’s economic data indicated a contraction, its GDP has decreased by 0.3% in the quarter, against estimates for a 0.3% increase. As such, USD/JPY added over 100 pips to 139.88, currently at 140.28. USD/CAD also slightly recovered to 1.3311.
Meanwhile, EUR/USD bounced back from a low of 1.0274 to 1.0325, investors expected tonight’s Eurozone GDP quarterly growth will fall from 0.8% to 0.2%. GBP/USD recorded a 79 pips loss to a closing price of 1.1752.
After some fluctuations, AUD/USD closed at 0.6696 with minor losses, the meeting minutes released by the Reserve Bank of Australia show the central bank has considered a 50 basis point rate hike for November.
Spot gold closed at $1,771.24 and was last traded at $1,769.79 an ounce. WTI oil futures declined to $85.87 a barrel.
FTX’s recent collapse sees Bitcoin plunging to a low of 15,852.
InvestMate|USD/JPY Long-awaited correction💱USD/JPY Long-awaited correction
💱Continuing the thread started in a previous post in which I predicted a decline on USD/JPY .
💱In this post I would like to expand on my point of view
💱Last week the event everyone was waiting for was the interest rate decision, which rose to 4%.
💱This was followed by a press conference in which Jerome Powell spooked the markets with a hawkish tone, which first triggered a sharp wave of dollar weakness, and Powell's words were followed by a speculative attack to strengthen the dollar.
💱The next day already brought a cooling off and the market returned to discounting the scenario of a weakening dollar in the future and a slowdown in interest rate hikes.
💱 4 November Non Farm Payrolls performed very well with 261k new jobs created compared to the 200k the market was expecting.
💱After which the rate from the data we found out unemployment rose to 3.7%
💱All this data could have a positive impact on future inflation readings. Which has been falling for over 4 months.
💱All of the above data is contributing to the slow weakening of the dollar.
💱Looking at the USD/JPY chart where we are at 32 year highs.
💱In an uptrend since 2011.
💱The only significant corrections we have made in recent years were these 2:
💱Looking at the current one-year uptrend impulse, it is hard not to get the impression that in the long term we could use some kind of correction, at least to match the one in July this year
💱Or perhaps we are in for an even bigger correction returning to strong support points?
💱If Japan's rising inflation forced the central bank to raise interest rates, which are at record lows, and these developments combined with the BOJ's stated desire to strengthen the currency in recent weeks. We could see a massive downward slide, especially with the dollar
🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
NZDJPY Pull-back first, 88.000 - 90.000 later.The NZDJPY pair followed very closely the trading plan we presented on our last September 22 analysis:
As you see after a drop to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, the price rebounded aggressively back to the Resistance Zone. What helped us make this accurate projection were the striking similarities that presented early on with the June - September 2021 fractal. It appears that we are inside the blue oval pull-back which was completed just below the 0.786 Fibonacci level and then bounced for a new High on the -0.5 Fib extension.
See how similar their RSI patterns are as well. As a result, once this pull-back is completed, we expect a rise first to the 87.900 Resistance (top) and the -0.5 Fib above 90.000.
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EURJPY: Time to Sell 🇪🇺🇯🇵
Update for EURJPY.
The pair has recently retested a broken trend line on a daily.
The price formed a horizontal range on 4H time frame then
and broke its support.
I expect a bearish continuation to 144.4 now.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
CADJPY Accumulation before pump?The CADJPY pair continues to follow our trading plan presented on September 20, as it repeats the fractal of late 2021 - early 2022:
As you see, the MACD Bearish Cross was the correct sell signal we needed and the price hit the 0.618 Fibonacci target and rebounded. Right now it appears that the price has entered a consolidation phase similar to the post January 20 MACD Bearish Cross. As long as the Green Support Zone holds, we should expect within a 5 week horizon a break above the September High, targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
A break below the Zone though, shouldn't stop on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but instead target the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since December 20 2021. An additional bullish confirmation would be a break of the RSI above its own Lower Highs trend-line, which in more than a year has delivered very strong and rapid rallies.
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