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$JPIRYY -Japan Inflation Rate YoYECONOMICS:JPIRYY (March/2024) The annual inflation rate in Japan ticked lower to 2.7% in March 2024 from February's 3-month peak of 2.8%, matching market consensus. There were slowdowns in prices of transport (2.9% vs 3.0% in February), clothes (2.0% vs 2.6%), furniture & household utensils (3.2% vs 5.1%), healthcare (1.5% vs 1.8%), communication (0.2% vs 1.4%), and culture & recreation (7.2% vs 7.3%). At the same time, inflation was stable for food (at 4.8%), housing (at 0.6%), education (at 1.3%), and miscellaneous (at 1.1%). Meanwhile, prices of fuel, and light dropped the least in a year (-1.7% vs -3.0%), with electricity (-1.0% and -2.5%) and gas (-7.1% vs -9.4%) falling at softer paces as energy subsidies from the government would fully end in May. The core inflation rate fell to 2.6% from a four-month top of 2.8%, slightly below forecasts of 2.7%. Monthly, consumer prices rose by 0.2% in March, the most since last October, after being flat in the prior two months. source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
USDJPY ( DOWNWARD PRESSURE ) ( 4H )USDJPY HELLO TRADERS in the last chart the price reach first target , know trying to reach a turning level before dropping Tendency the price is under bearish pressure , after stabilizing below turning level at 161.126 TURNING LEVEL : a blue line between resistance and support level around 161.126 , indicates if the price stabilizing below this level reach support level , if the breaking turning level reach a resistance level RESISTANCE LEVEL : there is a green line around 161.840 , if the price breaking turning level reach this target , indicates selling have already increase this level SUPPORT LEVEL : there is a red line below turning level around 159.814, indicates buying have already increase this level , so until the price trade below turning level reach this target PRICE MOVEMENT : maybe first the price will trying to rising turning level around 161.126, after dropping to the support level at 159,814 , then stable below this level reach 158.755 , if the price breaking turning level reach a resistance level at 162.126 , breaking this level reach a new resistance level at 162.727 TARGET LEVEL : RESISTANCE LEVEL : 161.840 , 162.727 SUPPORT LEVEL : 159.814,158.755
Short
by ArinaKarayi
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 03, 2024 EURUSDThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to suffer losses on Wednesday, remaining near a low of 161.750, a level not seen since 1986, recorded in the previous session. The decline may be attributed to final data indicating that business activity in Japan began to contract in June. Market participants are focused on the possibility of currency intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which could support the Japanese Yen and limit the growth of the USD/JPY pair. Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to a near 13-year high of 1.11%. Traders continue to assess the outlook for the Bank of Japan's monetary policy amid a sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen, which raises the cost of imports and contributes to inflationary pressures. In addition, the central bank announced plans to unveil a strategy to wind down its bond buying program in July. The US dollar (USD) halted its four-day losing streak thanks to a rebound in the 2-year Treasury bond yield, which is at 4.75% at the time of writing. Traders await the release of the ADP US employment change data, ISM Services PMI for June and the FOMC meeting minutes scheduled for Wednesday. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 161.750, and if the level is fixed above, take Buy positions. On the rebound take Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
FED has to lower Rates or face Emergency QE.(Not a game) Jerome Powell lied to say he raised rates due to "Inflation", this was a great cover however he clearly saw the USDJPY crisis coming like I saw from last year. (Inverted Charts) The DXY Rising + the USDJPY rising will unwind the carry trade that will sell off the majority of people holding US bonds via Japan. This will force the FED to initiate YCC locally. Japan CANNOT keep rates low at this point or they will enter the no way out hyperinflation by 2025. America CANNOT rise rates increasing the USDJPY past the point of no return (currently at 160) Yes we are at 151 and the complete fail point is 160. Everyone has been expecting a recession, where is it? Everyone is expecting a rate hike, will the FED do it? Path 1 -- FED Hike or Hold, USDJPY falls below the point of no return, Japan is now forced to try raise rates while restarting YCC + Stimulus (at this point the Yen is now a failed currency and it could lead to mass political instability that causes a carry trade sell off) Path 2 -- FED lowers rate's, USDJPY starts to revert pressure on the Japanese currency (at this point the FED is now taking the hit of debasement to try stabilize Japan). Our financial system has been sick since the gold depeg, it has gotten sicker after 2009, 2020 has put us into critical times. I wish this was real but we are at the end of the MMT cycle. The US is forced into a corner to not raise rates to deal with risk markets rising while DEBT interest + US Gov to DEBT ratio make's raising rates unaffordable. Japan after WW2 has become the YCC hub for America and rightfully so it worked due to the innovation that came out of Japan that brought them enough wealth to forget this policy. This is the part where if Jerome Powell say's the wrong thing today, it could be time to exit majority of capital from the legacy system for future protection. Capital Controls? Communism? Banking Limits? Spot Bitcoin ETF limitations? Executive Order 6102? I'm genuinely concerned that majority of people want rate hikes that will destabilize the entire world due to debt and cause a communist style global financial shutdown to contain the disaster. What a failed monetary policy era we live in.
by FederalXBT
Yen Futures: Resale of Call options 0.006850 Bearish SentimentThe targets set for the Yen on February 19th have almost been reached. The uptrend still has a small potential to reach target number 2, but after that the Yen's downtrend will most likely continue. This is supported by COT reports and activity in option portfolios, which were formed on February 29 (at the local minimum) on the CME exchange. The prices of futures and volatility have increased. Stated that someone BIG and WELL INFORMED market participant is profiting from reselling 0.00685 call options without waiting for them to become ITM (in-the-money). Can you guess why?)
CME:6JH2024Short
by ClashChartsTeam
USDJPY BUY USING PO3 ? (market cycles)hello guys i hope you are having a good week , today i am looking at USDJPY this weekly candle on usdjpy closes as a hammer looking like candle indicating buy. for the daily tf the price started consolidating for a while now (accumulation) , since friday candle closed as inverted hammer am guessing monday we are going to see a red candle possible the candlle that will do the manipulation. my point of interest is the Orderblock/Demand zone on the 1Dtf i will llook for entries in that area it also serves as a rejection block we can see a candle leaving a big whick in that area. but i have to be careful since the price is on the 150 zone this zone is notorious because of the manipulations caused by bank of japan in that price range it is also a psycological level that the price has been testing for a while now so my tp will not be crazy . keep in mind very very action packed week ahead trade safe !
Long
by xAB777
Will Yen Tank to New Lows?The Japanese Yen is one of the worst performing currencies in 2024. It has weakened 5.4% against the USD. Forces have been stacked against Yen ever since the US Federal Reserve started raising interest rates at a record pace. In sharp contrast, ultra loose monetary stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) resulted in wide policy rate differential of 5% between short-term interest rates in both countries, which has contributed to Yen weakness. The Yen made a recovery in December driven by a dovish Fed and hopes of BoJ exiting its ultra-loose policy in 2024. Yen rose to levels unseen since June 2023. However, thus far in 2024, the Yen has weakened as recent developments have cemented the need to maintain current loose monetary policy in Japan. An Earthquake that struck Japan at the start of the year caused infrastructure damage. Stimulus will be required to fix that. Inflation in Japan is retreating to BoJ’s target range rapidly. Consequently, the central bank may see no rush to start hiking rates given uncertain recovery in economic growth. This paper describes various forces at play and establishes a hypothetical trade setup using CME Japanese Yen futures to harness gains from weakening Yen. BOJ’s MONETARY POLICY MAY STAY LOOSER FOR LONGER 1. Aid for Earthquake Relief: On January 2nd, a severe earthquake hit near Japan's Ishikawa prefecture , causing widespread destruction, damaging over 4,000 homes. The area continues to experience aftershocks, adding to the damage. Moody’s RMS predicts insured losses from the earthquake could be between USD 3 billion and USD 6 billion. In response, Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kushida plans to double earthquake relief funds to USD 7 billion in the next fiscal year to aid recovery efforts. Given the economic fallout, the BoJ is likely to maintain its lenient monetary policy in the near future. 2. Cooling CPI: Japan’s most recent CPI figures showed inflation cooling to 2.6% in December from 2.8% in November. That is the lowest reading since July 2022. Core CPI, which excludes fresh food, a measure referenced by the BoJ, fell to 2.3% from 2.5%. Inflation excluding fresh food and energy was 3.7% YoY, which was also lower compared to November’s 3.8%. The core CPI reading is just a hair above BoJ’s target range of 2%. Inflation was driven lower by decline (11.6% YoY) in energy costs. The large drop was due to base effects of high energy prices last year. Services inflation remained unchanged at 2.3% fuelled by higher wages. That is positive news for the BoJ which aims to establish sustainable domestic-demand & wage-growth driven inflation. With wage hikes from the Shunto negotiation in March-April still undecided, the BoJ is unlikely to pre-empt the exit from loose policy. Therefore, the next two policy meetings are unlikely to lead to a policy shift. BoJ Policy Meeting calendar ( BoJ ) FED POLICY MAY NEED TO REMAIN TIGHTER FOR LONGER Meanwhile, concerns are plenty in the US too. Inflation rebounded in December. Core inflation remains strong. Robust retail sales suggest consumers are resilient and still spending. Jobs data from December was healthy. Recent jobless claims points to further strength in the labour market. Put together, the Fed will not rush to cut rates as markets expect. This is exemplified by diverging market and Fed expectations for rate path. According to CME FedWatch tool (as of 22/Jan), markets are expecting 5 rate cuts in 2024 while Federal Reserve's dot plot suggested only 3 rate cuts would take place. Both factors, from Japan and the US together, suggest fundamental Yen weakness and these conditions are expected to persist for longer. YEN INTERVENTION WARNING Despite the fundamental weakness, there are risks from betting against further Yen weakening. As the currency weakened rapidly past 148/USD, the Japanese Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, stated that the government is closely watching developments in the currency markets. He stressed the importance of stability and that market movements should reflect economic fundamentals. Likelihood of intervention remains high and its impact on the Yen has been discussed previously . MARKET METRICS Options market activity points to a contrasting trend. Recent open interest change in CME Group Japanese Yen options have been tilted towards higher calls signalling hopes of Yen strengthening. Overall positioning points to a similar contrary trend. CME Group Japanese Yen options OI change between 11/Jan and 19/Jan ( QuikStrike ) Despite the recent rally, implied volatility has not spiked significantly. They remain well below the highs seen in mid-December around BoJ’s policy meeting. Moreover, options skew remains elevated from its lows observed in late-October when the sentiment around Yen was heavily bearish. CME Japanese Yen options CVOL index and options skew ( CVOL ) HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The BoJ is unlikely to exit its loose policy stance any time soon against the backdrop of rapidly slowing inflation and uncertain economic outlook. In the US, a rebound in inflation might delay Fed’s rate cut decision. Collectively, this points to fundamental Yen weakness. To limit downside exposure in case of intervention by Japanese officials in currency markets, a tight stop can limit losses. The below hypothetical trade setup suggests a short position in CME Group Japanese Yen futures expiring in March (6JH2024) that provides a 1.55x reward to risk ratio. CME Group Japanese Yen futures have maintenance margin of USD 2,600 and provide exposure to 12,500,000 Yen. • Entry: 0.0068115 • Target: 0.0066000 • Stop Loss: 0.0069500 • Profit at Target: USD 2,643 (68115 – 66000 = 2115 pips x 1.25) • Loss at Stop: USD 1,731 (69500 – 68115 pips = 1385 pips x 1.25) • Reward-to-Risk: 1.55x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:6J1!Short
by mintdotfinance
USDJPY | COULBE A GOOD SELL?Hey Traders! Got a bit of a challenging one for us today. The market's been on a steep downtrend, but recently, it showed signs of upward movement after the release of somewhat positive PMI news for the dollar. Despite these dynamics, I'm sensing a potential drop of 60-100 pips. The currency is hovering around a monthly pivot line, and the 200-day moving average is looming over the daily timeframe. These factors alone make a compelling case for entry. It's a tough trade, no doubt, but too intriguing to skip. My take? Go for it, but consider trading with a smaller lot size. Remember, this is a pullback trade, so we're not fully in sync with the trend 📈✅
Short
by FX-TradingLions
USD/JPY: Yen Strengthens Amid Policy ExpectationsThe Japanese Yen gains support from anticipated BoJ policy shifts, fostering a safer environment and limiting USD/JPY within lower USD demand. Investor focus on US economic data before FOMC minutes remains crucial. Technically, breaching the 200-day SMA signals a USD/JPY downtrend. Daily chart indicators suggest potential further losses. Any upward movement could prompt selling near 142.00, leading to short-term profit-taking around 142.40 and targeting the 200-day SMA at 143.00. Support lies at 141.00, guarding against declines toward recent lows near 140.25 and the psychological level of 140.00. A firm break below 141.00 may accelerate a decline towards 139.35, aiming for levels near 139.00, 138.75, and 138.00 (the July 28th low).
by Larissa-Trader
USD/JPY Approaches 141.30, Extending Two-Day Decline USD/JPY continues its downward trend for the second consecutive session, trading below the 141.30 level during the Asian hours on Thursday. Improved trade data from Japan in November has exerted pressure on the currency pair. However, less optimistic remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda may weigh on the Japanese Yen. From a technical standpoint, the spot price indicates potential recovery below the 142.00 level and appears to have broken the two-day decline. This suggests that breaking below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is crucial support for bearish traders. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart remain deeply in negative territory, indicating limited resistance for USD/JPY on the downside. Any subsequent upward movement may still be viewed as a selling opportunity and is likely to be capped around the 142.75 level (200-day SMA). This implies that further buying activity leading to a move beyond the 143.00 level could trigger short-covering actions, allowing the bullish camp to reclaim the 144.00 milestone. On the flip side, weakness below the Asian session's lowest levels around the 141.90-141.85 region would reaffirm the short-term trend and make USD/JPY susceptible to retesting below the 141.00 level, or the multi-month lows touched last week. Subsequent declines could potentially pull the spot price towards the intermediate support at 140.45 on the way to the psychological level of 140.00.
by AdmamTrade
Japanese Yen Weakens on Soft Inflation, BoJ Policy UncertaintyThe Japanese Yen (JPY) faced a decline after softer domestic consumer inflation data, raising uncertainties about the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) potential policy tightening. BoJ's October meeting minutes revealed a consensus to maintain the accommodative policy, contributing to JPY weakness. The USD/JPY pair saw a modest recovery from weekly lows, supported by the USD's modest strength. Japan's core CPI remains at 2% for the 20th consecutive month, and optimism about future wage growth suggests a potential shift in BoJ's stance. However, the market anticipates a more positive U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing in 2024, influenced by the U.S. Q3 GDP report. Investors are now watching the U.S. Core PCE Price Index for further guidance on USD/JPY short-term direction. Despite this, the fundamental outlook leans towards JPY strength, indicating a downside bias for the currency pair.
by Larissa-Trader