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JPYUSD

Europe&Japan to perform better than USA from now on, 2-JapanComparision of "NIKKEI in USD dollars" to "SPX". I am publishing the same for all (please see my other analysis): Germany, UK, France, Italy, Japan... I ignore all the fundamentals and just make technical analysis . Fall of EUR&GBP&JPY and their stock market's negative divergence compared to USA (SPX) is about to end, I believe. Important: This doesn't mean that the equities&indices are going to rise from now on. My analysis only says: Europe&Japan will perform better than USA. Just because they are very cheap.
TVC:NI225Long
by skykhan
2
Crude Oil Inflation SpiralWith crude oil prices declining, one might expect that the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening is working and that perhaps a pivot may be on the horizon. However, if we dig deeper, charts are sending warning signs that perhaps crude oil prices, and inflation in general, might remain elevated for much longer than expected. The chart above is a monthly chart of Brent Crude Oil adjusted in price by the Japanese Yen. In the chart, we see what appears to be a double top. However, unlike during the Great Recession, in the current situation, the price of crude oil has fallen much less quickly after peaking. Compare the two charts below. When priced in Japanese Yen, crude oil is 80% higher today than where it was after peaking in 2008 (the red ghost bars below show the 2008 price action). In other words, crude oil prices have declined much slower after their current peak than after their peak in 2008. Ominously, a bull pennant appears on the monthly chart. Although I do not have Fibonacci levels applied to this chart, the bull pennant structure is a perfect golden ratio retracement. Such a perfect bull pennant pattern could suggest that crude oil prices (adjusted in Japanese Yen) may break above resistance and continue higher, rather than decline at all. Why might this be happening? The Bank of Japan continues to maintain negative interest rates. Negative interest rates is just an obfuscated way of saying it continues to produce more and more money. Negative interest rates result in limitless money being produced through credit. Negative interest rates therefore cause money to become less and less scarce over time. Less scarcity of money always ultimately results in inflation. This continued monetary easing in turn weakens the Yen relative to currencies of countries with higher interest rates, especially the rapidly strengthening U.S. dollar. Since Japan is too highly indebted to hike interest rates at all, let alone at the pace that the U.S. Federal Reserve is hiking rates, Japan is facing a crisis whereby the value of its currency is rapidly weakening. Instead of hiking interest rates to mitigate its weakening currency, the Bank of Japan has chosen to sell U.S. Treasuries to increase its supply of dollars, and to buy Yen with those dollars. While this action may help Japan avert an energy shortage by providing the U.S. dollars needed to ensure a steady flow of crude oil, by increasing its supply of U.S. dollars, Japan also perpetuates commodity inflation. More supply of U.S. dollars keeps crude oil, which is priced in U.S. dollars, higher for longer. The more U.S. Treasuries Japan sells, the more U.S. dollars it will have to continue paying high crude oil prices, which in turn keeps inflation higher for longer, which in turn causes the U.S. Federal Reserve to hike rates more for even longer to bring commodity inflation down. Since the Bank of Japan is unable to hike rates the Yen in turn slides further. This negative feedback loop can spiral into a monetary and economic crisis if unabated. How bad could the situation get? To find the answer to this question, we can examine the yearly chart for Brent Crude Oil. Below is the yearly chart. Notice that the Stochastic RSI is indicating that Brent Crude Oil prices have strong upward momentum on the yearly chart. When oscillators push strongly higher on the yearly timeframe, this can lead to a prolonged period of sustained higher prices. The best way to hypothesize a potential peak is to use Fibonacci extensions on the yearly chart. If commodity inflation persists, then price may undergo Fibonacci extension on the yearly chart. This process will be slow and insidious with periods of commodity prices coming down as they retrace on lower timeframes, such that bull rallies trap unsuspecting market participants who believe that the era of limitless monetary easing will soon return. Monetary easing cannot return or else the commodity inflation spiral worsens. Indeed, spiraling inflation puts central banks in a Catch-22 whereby any action they can take results in economic decline. Only time will tell how this Catch-22 will end, but I will leave you with one final chart, shown below. This chart shows a regression channel that measures how far above or below its mean crude oil is currently priced when compared to its entire 160-year price history. What's alarming is that despite the rapid rise in crude oil prices, we are merely just now reach the mean (red line). If history repeats itself, price could double, triple or more from current levels in the years to come...
TVC:UKOIL
by SpyMasterTrades
7
FOMC: Central Banks on the Verge of Panic Over Inflation Key events: USA - Existing Home Sales (Aug) USA - Crude Oil Inventories USA - FOMC Economic Projections USA - FOMC Statement USA - Fed Interest Rate Decision USA - FOMC Press Conference To say that central banks are panicking would probably be an exaggeration, but not that much. Consensus forecasts for the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) were wrong: the figure was up 0.1% from the previous month, while economists had forecast a decline. And while analysts had previously assumed that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would raise interest rates by 50-75 basis points (bps) this week, they now expect at least a 75 bps increase, with expectations of a full percentage point increase intensifying. The increase in the overall CPI has only been so small because of the sharp drop in energy prices. Closely monitored core inflation, which excludes such pesky volatile categories as food and energy, was 0.6% monthly. Investors now believe that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates until it can demonstrate that it controls inflation. With a 75 bps hike this week, the Fed's target range for the federal funds rate will reach 3.0-3.25%, and futures now point to the likelihood of a rate hike above 4% by year-end, which implies further strong hikes at the two remaining Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in early November and mid-December. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), commonly regarded as the central bank of central banks, expressed its opinion Monday in support of higher rates in the U.S. and other regions, even though they pose a threat of recession. BIS chief economist Claudio Borio urged central banks to continue to actively raise interest rates. "Acting aggressively early usually reduces the likelihood of a hard landing," he said in the BIS Quarterly Economic Review. Philip Lane, a chief economist at the European Central Bank (ECB), said last week that further key rate hikes were needed after shocking markets with a 75-bp increase earlier this month. Europe is suffering from inflation even more than the U.S. - the region's worsening energy crisis could cripple the economy and cause serious hardship for households. Lane has been among those who have ignored the threat of inflation for months, so his admission that further rate hikes are necessary is an important signal. The Fed began raising interest rates early and is doing so more aggressively, leaving other central banks in a catch-up role, with the Fed's rate hikes causing the dollar to strengthen sharply in the foreign exchange market. The rise of the dollar exacerbates inflation in other countries because the lion's share of international trade is settled in U.S. currency. When other currencies fall against the dollar, imports from the countries concerned become more expensive. Major currencies such as the euro, the pound sterling, and the Japanese yen are now falling against the dollar, putting pressure on the central banks of the countries concerned. Even the Chinese currency has fallen below the threshold with the dollar rising above 7 yuan last week. The dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against other major currencies, is up 14% this year. The chart above shows the DXY growth within 2022 Meanwhile, the topic of quantitative tightening is getting more and more attention. Central banks are reinvesting less and less of the proceeds of bond redemptions, taking liquidity out of the financial system. The Fed, which has a balance sheet of $9 trillion, has been reducing reinvestments by $47.5 billion a month since June, and that figure will be raised to $95 billion this month. The ECB is expected to start reducing its €8 trillion balance sheet. The ECB also lags behind the Fed on this aspect. ECB President Christine Lagarde said at the last meeting that it would be premature to discuss quantitative easing, but the pressure is building and the central bank is expected to bring up the subject at least for discussion at the October Governing Council meeting. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is increasingly criticized for being too slow in responding to inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee postponed its scheduled meeting last week due to mourning the death of Queen Elizabeth II. This week, the regulator is expected to raise the bank rate by at least 50 bps, with some analysts even predicting a 75 bps increase.
Short
by FOREXN1
27
US Dollar broke out against Japan YenAs you can see in the chart The USD broke the resistance of 135 against the JPY after crossing to the upside the exponential moving average of 377 months which is something that is not usually seen. I will try to enter a long in the retest of 135, with an stop loss at 129.6. For the targets i recommend to keep locking profits and the main target is 175. Clarification: I'm not Japanese so i can not go long in dollars because i would be making nothing, I use this (USDJPY) because I see it more clearly than in JPYUSD. So going long here means opening a short position in JPYUSD at 0.007407 with stop at 0.007716 and main target 0.00571. If you agree give a boost and I will be glad to see points of view in the comments, if you think that I'm wrong tell me why. Regards and happy trading.
Long
by piccard54
USDJPY SELL DOWNTRENDING USDJPY technical analysis - 4H we have created a new high close since Friday's news event. With current market structure after creating a new high, IF market shows signs of weakness; Sellers or price dropping. Next thing would be to dive into deeper timeframes to get better insight of current market. 1H we failed to create a new high. As we were following higher highs and higher lows, price closed below to create a downtrend. Price has yet to mitigate out of previous high to create a lower-low to follow structure of a downtrend. Risk to Reward is over 1:4+ Checks 3 confirmations from my plan. I'm going in! IF price fails to reach sell limit and goes into lower POI, I will look for accumilation in the area for possible buys!
Short
by nonstopkev888
Updated technical GBPJPY price forecastMost traders are aware of the rout that the USD is carving into the Japanese yen and the Great British pound. Since the beginning of March 2022, the USD has appreciated against the yen by 11%, and 7% against the pound. Naturally, with their respective performances against the USD, the pound has strengthened against the yen since the beginning of March. But, by how much and what is the technical and fundamental perspective of the GBPJPY pair moving forward? GBPJPY Daily perspective Some long candles have begun presenting themselves in the GBPJPY daily chart recently, pushing and pulling this pair across a significant range over each trading session. This week, GBPJPY has swung between 156.30 and 161.80. GBPJPY 2H perspective On a short term view, we might expect some range-bound trading in the GBPJPY. The Average True Range indicator, on a 2-hour chart is showing weak buying and selling pressure. For a GBP bull, a bias for a tight range between 158.00 and 162.00 might be desired. A bear may extend that lower bound down to 155.00 in substitution for 158.00. As of writing, the GPYJPY is trading at 159.200. This level aligns closely to a resistance level from three previous highs going back to October 2021. The GBPJPY blasted through this resistance quite emphatically on March 22, and then slowly trended up to a peak of ~168.00 within a month. Whereupon pessimism in the UK economy set in, as the Bank of England gave warning of a potential recession, and the GBPJPY gave up a good chunk of gains. At the same time, the pound hit a 2-year low against the greenback. Even so, traders are still aware of the ultra-accommodative policy of the Bank of Japan. Thus, any potential dovishness from the Bank of England in response to the fear of recession is unlikely to reach the levels exhibited by the Bank of Japan. This fundamental factor may help to morph the 158.00 level, once a persistent level of a resistance, into a firm level of support moving forward.
by BlackBull_Markets