YM to ATH!YM possible low of the week right know. took out 30 points below old low and tapped H4 BISI and H4 IFVG.
Liquidity
Does SPY bottom this week?SPY 5/24 Levels
As AMEX:SPY continues to climb and climb the bull rally has no sign of ending. We are expected to have slight weakness this week although seasonals are indicating this week is the bottom. The weekly levels are :
Market Makers Hedged - Upside $536.50 Downside $521.50
Markets Expectation - Upside $535.13 Downside $524.40
Liquidity Levels - Lay at the market expectations
Pivot - Yellow Box
BTCUSD: The Game of Probabilities | New ATH? 65.28% Chance!Medium-term analysis of COINBASE:BTCUSD indicates that the price is poised to surge towards new all-time highs, with a probability of 65.28%!
Let's get into the underlying reasons for this:
1. The current status on the "1D" timeframe is "Active," indicating that the price has already reached and touched the 50% equilibrium level on the current timeframe.
2. Since the price has reached the equilibrium level of the daily timeframe, our focus now shifts to determining which liquidity side presents higher probabilities compared to the other.
3. In this scenario, the 1D/BSL (Buyside liquidity) indicates a 65.28% probability of the price reaching the 73835.57 level again.
More details:
Feel free to share your thoughts or any feedback you have on the analysis.
Also, if you're interested in analyzing the probabilities directly on your charts make sure to check out the Free Public Indicator that I've published recently!
XAUUSD LONG AND SHORTHi Guys, its been a long time since i published an analysis. and I'm back again
Gold sore the other day and reached the 2379 level which was the resistance, and has managed to cool off those buyers.
As always there are some demand and supply levels to take trade from. Our immediate demand level would be around 53-49 which upon reaching, with confirmation we will take trades. If the level is breached other levels below would become possible long points.
Those who want to go short ,currently level around 73-75 is a suitable point and above that levels 85,93,403,412,....
My view is that Before continuing higher market needs to see lower prices and demand levels to test.
* As always add your own intuition and logic into this analysis and proceed with safety measures in place.
Be honorable
EURUSD 13-17 May 2024 W20 - Weekly Analysis - EU & US CPI Week!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 13-17 May 2024 W20 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weekly Chart Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
The narrative surrounding the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the rest of its G10 peers continues to dominate the macro scenario in the market. On this, the FedWatch Tool tracked by CME Group sees the probability of a Fed’s rate reduction in September nearly 70%.
With the inflation reports expected this week (CPI), If inflation stays high but doesn't speed up much more, the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates higher for a longer time. This is because the market is worried about inflation staying high, and if there's a surprise where inflation doesn't increase as much as feared, the reaction will likely be smaller. Powell, said they would only raise rates if they had convincing proof that their current policies are too tight.
Right now, the market expects interest rates to be cut twice by the end of the year. However, if we see another report showing high inflation, those expectations might change. A weaker report might lead to just one rate cut being expected instead of two, but not much more than that. The Federal Reserve might wait until their meeting in September at the earliest to make any major decisions, unless there's a sudden worsening in the job market.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we will target the Weak INT Low and the Weak Swing Low.
3.
Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and initiated the Bearish Internal Structure Continuation.
Expectation is to continue bearish and target he Weak INT Low.
4.
Price tapped into a Weekly demand zone that is currently providing Pullback for the continuation down to the Weak INT Low.
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
Internal Structure continuing bearish following the Bearish Swing.
3.
After the Bearish iBOS we expect a Pullback.
Price in a clear corrective move to the upside after tapping the Weekly Demand Zone which initiated the Bearish iBOS Pullback Phase.
As expected last week with the probability of a deep pullback, price reached the Daily Supply. With that deep Pullback, there is a HP that we can continue the Bearish INT Structure with expectation to target the Weak INT Low and possibly the Weak Swing Low.
More development required on LTF to show signs of Bearish Structure to validate the expectations.
4.
Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions to fulfill the INT Pullback Phase.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Reached Swing EQ
INT Structure Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
With the 4H INT is Bullish, it's for me not much aligning with the Daily TF which makes the view unclear from a trend prospective.
Are we going to hold Bullish Internal to maybe have a more deeper PB on Daily, or we are going to turn bearish on the 4H Internal to continue the Daily Swing/INT Structure trend.
With the current week inflationary reports coming out from EU and US, most probably we will have more price development that can facilitate a HP setups.
Economic Events for the Week
EURUSD 9 May 2024 W19 - Intraday Analysis - US Jobless ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 9 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Nothing changed since the start of the week and as per Tuesday sentiment, investors are waiting for a catalyst to have a clear policy direction for the upcoming quarter.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Reached Swing EQ
INT Structure Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
Nothing much changed since yesterday as we just tapping into a demand zone (FLIP) that may provide some bullish reaction.
INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply.
Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish.
More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
Long : Phase B (LP)
Short : Phase C (HP)
2.
Finally we are barely out from Friday NFP Range and price still ranging with clear direction.
With a Bearish iBOS we confirmed the 15m Swing Pullback.
Currently price tapped and formed Bullish Sub-Internal Structure that is facilitating the INT Pullback.
Not convinced much of Longs as per our position in the HTF (Tapped into Daily Supply), instead will follow the Bearish INT Structure and look for Shorts from 15m Supply that are well positioned within the Swing.
3.
15m/4H Demand zones for possible longs one reached.
EURUSD - 📈 => 📉Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
As per my last analysis (attached on the chart), EURUSD rejected our blue circle zone and traded higher.
What's next?
📈 EURUSD has been overall bearish long-term , trading within the falling wedge pattern in red.
Currently, EURUSD is approaching the upper bound of the wedge pattern.
Moreover, the green zone is a strong resistance.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper red trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #EURUSD approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
EURUSD 8 May 2024 W19 - Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 8 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Nothing changed since the start of the week and as per yesterday sentiment here, investors are waiting for a catalyst to have a clear policy direction for the upcoming quarter.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Reached Swing EQ
INT Structure Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
Nothing much changed since yesterday as we just tapping into a demand zone (FLIP) that may provide some bullish reaction.
INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply.
Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish.
More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
Long : Phase B (LP)
Short : Phase C (HP)
2.
Finally we are barely out from Friday NFP Range.
With a Bearish iBOS we confirmed the 15m Swing Pullback.
Currently price tapped into a 4H Demand which could initiate the INT Structure PB.
Bullish CHoCH will be the first sign that the INT PB is starting.
Not convinced much of Longs as per our position in the HTF (Tapped into Daily Supply), instead will follow the Bearish INT Structure and look for Shorts from 15m Supply that are well positioned within the Swing.
3.
15m/4H Demand zones for possible longs one reached.
Unlocking Liquidity: Impact on Risk Assets and BitcoinLiquidity drives risk assets, especially growth assets, crypto, and tech. #Bitcoin closely tracks US net liquidity.
BTCUSDT.PThe market is in a downtrend. in case of sweeping liquidity and the closing above it, could set up a situation for a potential upward move to mitigate the1H : Ext OB. However, it's important to note that this approach is risky due to its countertrend nature
After reaching the '1H : Ext OB' , confirmed signals on both the 1-hour (1H) and 5-minute (5m) timeframes could present a high-potential opportunity to initiate a short position
EURUSD 7 May 2024 W19 - Intraday Analysis - EU Retail SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Today's sentiment for EUR/USD pair is shaped by pivotal occurrences from the previous week. The release of weaker-than-anticipated Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data prompted a decline in the US dollar, lending some buoyancy to the EUR/USD pair. Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wielded considerable influence. The FOMC opted to maintain the policy interest rate and continue tapering securities holdings. Powell reiterated the Fed's unwavering commitment to achieving their 2% inflation target. Consequently, there's a prevailing bearish sentiment towards the US dollar, keeping the EUR/USD pair comfortably above the 1.0750 threshold. However, the market remains vigilant ahead of this week's data releases.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Reached Swing EQ
INT Structure Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply.
Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish.
More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
Long : Phase A2
Short : Phase D
2.
Nothing changed since yesterday, price still ranging!
Swing failed to continue Bearish and with NFP we created a Bullish BOS which reached the Daily Supply Zone.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. INT structure is Bullish which means we still in Bullish continuation.
With the 4H created a Bullish iBOS and requesting a Pullback, i prefer to look for Shorts after a Bearish iBOS.
Longs will be ideal for me when we reach the 4H demand zone within the 15m Swing.
3.
15m/4H Demand zones for possible longs one reached.
USDCAD BULLS TO PUSH PRICES HIGHERThe confluences that support the bullish bias
1. Price is within the Daily FVG
2. The third touch on the trend line confluences with the fvg zone
3. Buy side liquidity is a low resistance liquidity pool
4. there are no bearish structures
EURUSD 6 May 2024 W19 - Intraday Analysis - EU PMIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 6 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Nothing changed from Friday, the EUR/USD surged to reach a new high for the week, surpassing recent congestion levels. This uptick followed a significant shortfall in the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data regarding labor and wages. The disappointing figures revived expectations across the market for a quicker pace of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate reductions.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Reached Swing EQ
INT Structure Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply.
Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish.
More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
Long : Phase A2
Short : Phase D
2.
Swing failed to continue Bearish and with NFP we created a Bullish BOS which reached the Daily Supply Zone.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. INT structure is Bullish which means we still in Bullish continuation.
With the 4H created a Bullish iBOS and requesting a Pullback, i prefer to look for Shorts after a Bearish iBOS.
Longs will be ideal for me when we reach the 4H demand zone within the 15m Swing.
3.
15m/4H Demand zones for possible longs one reached.
EURUSD 6-10 May 2024 W19 Weekly AnalysisThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 6-10 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weekly Chart Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
On Friday, the EUR/USD surged to reach a new high for the week, surpassing recent congestion levels. This uptick followed a significant shortfall in the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data regarding labor and wages. The disappointing figures revived expectations across the market for a quicker pace of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate reductions.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we will target the Weak INT Low and the Weak Swing Low.
3.
Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and initiated the Bearish Internal Structure Continuation.
Expectation is to continue bearish and target he Weak INT Low.
4.
Price tapped into a Weekly demand zone that is currently providing Pullback for the continuation down to the Weak INT Low.
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
Internal Structure continuing bearish following the Bearish Swing.
3.
After the Bearish iBOS we expect a Pullback.
Price in a clear corrective move to the upside after tapping the Weekly Demand Zone which initiated the Bearish iBOS Pullback Phase.
As expected last week with the probability of a deep pullback, price reached the Daily Supply. With that deep Pullback, there is a HP that we can continue the Bearish INT Structure with expectation to target the Weak INT Low and possibly the Weak Swing Low.
More development required on LTF to show signs of Bearish Structure to validate the expectations.
4.
Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions to fulfill the INT Pullback Phase.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Reached Swing EQ
INT Structure Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply.
Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish.
More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation.
Economic Events for the Week
DOGE is Ready to go up!As you can see, Doge is in a minor bullish structure and has recently collected the liquidity of minor structure inducement (IDM.i) and created a SCOB confirmation.
Therefore, I expect growth at least until reaching the swing high of the minor structure at the price of 0.2293 $
This is my personal oponion and its not a financial advice.
EURUSD 2 May 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - EU CPI / US Jobless This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 2 May 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is mixed following the Federal Reserve meeting and Powell's speech. The US dollar initially strengthened after the Fed, but then weakened as investors focused on the central bank's dovish comments. This could be positive for EURUSD, which climbed after the Fed meeting. However, caution is still warranted as Non-Farm Payroll data, a key US jobs report, is due on Friday, which could impact the dollar and EURUSD again.
The following news today will have some volatility before NFP tomorrow:
German Mfg PMI Final
Eurozone Mfg PMI Final
US Trade Balance
US Initial Jobless Claims
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
As the INT Structure turned Bearish, it signals that the Swig PB maybe over and we are currently Pro Swing.
After the Bearish iBOS we are expecting a PB which already reached the Refined 4H FLIP Zone.
Currently the Liquidity above the 4H Supply which makes it not a HP Zone for Shorts unless we have clear Bearish Structure formation on the 15m.
I Prefer the Sweep of Liq above the 4H Supply (CHoCH) before Shorts.
Also be mindful that the Strong INT High could be run in the situation of a complex Deeper Pullback Phase for the 4H Swing.
With FOMC Yesterday and NFP tomorrow, this is the behavior of price due to Investors positioning.
Note: Daily is ranging and 4H too 🤷♂️
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Shorts Phase B (HP)
Longs Phase C (LP)
2.
With the volatility of yesterday news, price reached the Bearish Swing Extreme.
No clear direction as we are back again to the same range we are in since Apr 23.
Shorts make sense, but no potential POI / Clear INT Structure to follow.
Also with the 4H Liquidity above the 15m Swing High, there is a HP that the 15m Swing will get run.
3.
After the Bearish BOS we expected a Pullback, which was initiated after the Bullish iBOS.
Sell BIAS on GBPUSDwe would be looking to go SHORT once price clears the internal range liquidity...NOTE:We react to price action not predict. LIKE and SHARE your IDEA if otherwise
Liquidity Hunt PatternLiquidity Hunt Pattern
Uncover Hidden Opportunities in the Market
Introduction:
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern is a powerful technical analysis tool that helps traders identify potential turning points in the market. By understanding how this pattern forms and its implications, traders can gain an edge in uncovering hidden opportunities and making informed trading decisions.
What is the Liquidity Hunt Pattern?
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern is characterized by a series of price movements that create a distinct "W" or "M" shape on the chart. This pattern forms when large institutional players, known as "liquidity providers" enter the market to buy or sell large quantities of assets. Their actions create temporary imbalances in supply and demand, leading to price swings that can be exploited by astute traders.
Identifying the Pattern:
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern consists of three key elements:
The "W" or "M" shape: This is the most recognizable feature of the pattern and is formed by a series of price swings that create the distinctive letter shape.
Volume spikes: The pattern is often accompanied by significant volume spikes, indicating the presence of large institutional activity.
Breakout or breakdown: The pattern typically resolves with a breakout or breakdown, signaling a potential change in the market direction.
Trading the Liquidity Hunt Pattern:
Traders can use the Liquidity Hunt Pattern to identify potential entry and exit points for their trades. By understanding the dynamics of the pattern, traders can:
Anticipate potential turning points: The pattern can signal potential reversals or continuations in the market trend.
Identify high-probability trading setups: The pattern can be used to identify areas where the risk-reward ratio is favorable.
Manage risk effectively: The pattern can help traders set stop-loss and take-profit levels to manage their risk exposure.
Conclusion:
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern is a valuable tool for traders of all levels. By understanding its formation and implications, traders can gain an edge in the market and uncover hidden opportunities for profitable trades.
Filling up ImbalanceAs predicted, price went all over to 1.0650 to neutralize 15min imbalance order block having and immediate reaction. It is expected to climb to 1.0711 to collect first profit.
We are just buying a pull back. On higher time frame we can see bearish pressure, once price hit 1.0711 we should look for any bearish reaction if price goes over this supply zone expect price to climb to next resistance 1.0750 & 1.0860.
EURUSD 1 May 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - US FOMC/Powell Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 1 May 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
A day the markets awaits loaded with high impact news events. Starting with US ADP, Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings and ending with Rate Decision and Powell speech.
Today's FOMC Statement and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech are eagerly anticipated by the market, as both have the potential to significantly influence the EUR/USD pair. The Dollar Index has advanced as investor focus shifts to these pivotal events. Should the FOMC statement or Powell's comments lean towards a more hawkish stance, indicating a preference for higher interest rates, it could bolster the US dollar and exert downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Conversely, if the statement or remarks lean towards a more dovish stance, suggesting a inclination towards lower interest rates, it could weaken the US dollar and generate some upward movement for the EUR/USD pair.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
No clear Demand zone available to initiate the INT Structure Pullback.
Price could continue bearish without Pullback as we are in the Swing Continuation Phase.
Expectation is set to continue bearish targeting the Weak Swing Low.
4.
With the recent INT Structure turning Bearish confirming the Swing Pullback Phase may had ended, the Swing Bearish Continuation Phase started targeting the Weak Swing Low.
Current 4H Supply (FLIP Zone) could provide an opportunity for Shorts after the Bearish iBOS inline with the Bearish Swing and Continuation Phase.
Also be mindful that today is loaded with high impact news which will have a high volatility.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
OF Bearish
2.
Swing continuing Bearish with Bearish BOS.
After a BOS we expect a pullback.
There is no HTF Zone that can be potential for the Swing Pullback Phase.
Will wait for INT Structure to turn Bullish to look for Longs. Otherwise i prefer Shorts from the 4H Supply as it aligns with the HTF Bearish Phase and targets.
3.
No Clear Demand to initiate the Swing Pullback.
Waiting for INT Structure formation.
EURUSD 30 Apr 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - EU CPI GDP / US CFThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 30 April 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Sentiment from Monday (April 29th) could carry over to Tuesday, depending on the outcome of Eurozone data releases (CPI, GDP) and US ( Consumer Confidence). A strong Euro today due to positive data might see some continuation.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Sub-Internal Bullish
INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
4.
With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line).
A break of the Sub-INT Low, this will confirm that the Pullback Phase maybe is over and we will continue down targeting the INT Low. On the other side if the Sub-INT Structure will stay Bullish, there is a HP we are targeting the mitigation of the Daily Supply.
More Price development needed.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Sell: Phase B (HP)
Long: Phase C (LP)
2.
Swing turned Bearish signaling the probability that the 4H Pullback is maybe over and we may resume the 4H Bearish continuation move.
No much change from yesterday, we still ranging within a Bullish INT Structure within a Bearish Swing.
Possible Longs from the the current fresh 15m demand but be mindful that we swept the Liquidity below it and the 15m Bearish Swing could continue and run the INT Low.
Shorts are currently not my interest till we have another Bearish Swing.
3.
15m Demand within the INT Structure as it could provide a Low Probability Long Phase C trade.
EURUSD 29 Apr 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - GER CPIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 April 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
No major economic data releases are scheduled for Monday, limiting significant movement in the pair. However, the intervention in JPY leading to a USD weakness which will provide support for EURUSD some Bullish stand.
Also note that the current week includes EU CPI and US FOMC / NFP which most probably result in a volatility and investors are positioning for that upcoming news events.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Sub-Internal Bullish
INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
4.
With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line).
A break of the Sub-INT Low, this will confirm that the Pullback Phase maybe is over and we will continue down targeting the INT Low. On the other side if the Sub-INT Structure will stay Bullish, there is a HP we are targeting the mitigation of the Daily Supply.
More Price development from Intraday analysis to confirm a scenario.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Sell: Phase B (HP)
Long: Phase C (LP)
2.
Swing turned Bearish signaling the probability that the 4H Pullback is maybe over and we may resume the 4H Bearish continuation move.
Currently price at a 15m/4H Supply zones that could initiate the Swing continuation phase.
Possible Phase B Shorts but be mindful that the 4H INT Structure still Bullish and we may see another deep Swing pullback which will reflect on a Bullish 15m Swing BOS.
3.
15m Demand within the INT Structure as it could provide a Low Probability Long Phase C trade.
EURUSD 29-3 May 2024 W18 Weekly Analysis - FOMC / NFP Week!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 29-3 May 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weekly Chart Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
Potential EUR Upside:
Weaker Dollar: The recent US economic data, particularly the lower than expected GDP growth, has weakened the US dollar. This trend could continue if upcoming data disappoints.
Eurozone Data: Key Eurozone data releases (flash GDP and CPI) could show signs of improving economic health, boosting the Euro.
Potential EUR Downside:
Strong US Jobs Report: The highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday could show strong job growth, strengthening the dollar.
Hawkish Fed: The Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday is a key event. If the Fed signals a more aggressive rate hike path to combat inflation, the dollar will likely strengthen.
Overall:
The EUR/USD sentiment is currently uncertain. The direction will depend on the outcome of key data releases and the Fed meeting.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we will target the Weak INT Low and the Weak Swing Low.
3.
Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and initiated the Bearish Internal Structure Continuation.
Expectation is to continue bearish and target he Weak INT Low.
4.
Price currently within a Weekly demand zone that can initiate a minor Pullback for the continuation down to the Weak INT Low.
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
Internal Structure continuing bearish following the Bearish Swing.
3.
After the Bearish iBOS we expect a Pullback.
Currently price is within the Weekly Demand and swept Liq from the left.
Price in a clear corrective move to the upside after tapping the Weekly Demand Zone.
We didn't mitigate any HP Supply to initiate the INT Structure continuation phase so the scenario will be that price still could continue to mitigate the Daily Supply Zone.
Other scenario that with the corrective more currently we are in price will continue down without the mitigation of a Supply zone.
More price development required / LTF confirmations for the 2 scenarios.
4.
Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions to fulfill the INT Pullback Phase.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Sub-Internal Bullish
INT / Swing Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
4.
With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line).
A break of the Sub-INT Low, this will confirm that the Pullback Phase maybe is over and we will continue down targeting the INT Low. On the other side if the Sub-INT Structure will stay Bullish, there is a HP we are targeting the mitigation of the Daily Supply.
More Price development from Intraday analysis to confirm a scenario.
Economic Events for the Week
