Long-term
BTC Weekly: Long-Term Bullish Shark Harmonic?Lets take a look at the BTC weekly chart technicals:
RSI is at major lows
Repeated testing of 17k support
Signs reversal on the MACD+Stoch indicators
Increased buy volume on BTC/USDT for KuCoin and Binance
For chart analysis, we can see we are nearing the red line at the bottom, which represents the lowest possible trend floor at around 5.5k along with other support lines at 17k and 10k.
We could see a breakout from the large, declining triangle pattern which I believe is a Bullish Shark Harmonic Pattern . If it proves a valid reversal indicator we could see a good rally from around $12k - $13k. This is my observational opinion.
Alternatively, we could see it test the 10k mark support line below the triangle before a confident reversal signal! I believe this is a more bearish view, but possible.
If we look at market cap indicators, TOTAL, TOTAL1 and TOTAL2, we can see buying volume is higher for BTC relative to altcoints, indicating a possible influx to the largest cap currencies such as ETH, XRP, ATOM, HBAR, etc.
Is This a DCA Oppertunity?
My TL;DR opinion? Neutral-bearish on the short-term, bullish on the long term. Cautiously engaging with solid DCA strategies from these prices.
If we take a look at the wider economy and political climate, there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty surround FIAT after the dollar’s overwhelming rally against the Euro, GBP, and JPY! Gold lost a key support level at $1,700, and major indicies such as NASDAQ are still underperforming.
Whilst crypto is classed as a high-risk asset, some investors are noticing this moment of stability compared to the rest of the global market. It is impossible to make a perfect prediction and we could absolutely see some Lower Lows on crypto before a relief rally.
Silver is a commodity on the radar that could be showing signs of a major upswing, although I have yet to do a confident analysis on it.
With all that said I would personally be comfortable DCAing into crypto from here over time, with the expectation of another respectable dip before a full reversal🙏
Note: Nothing posted constitutes as financial advice, or any form of advice, and is designed to inform and educate!
XRP - Long-Term View 🕝 Analysis #8/50Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
XRP has been overall bearish trading inside the falling brown channel.
XRP is currently rejecting a strong weekly support 0.30 so we will be looking for buy setups.
🏹 Long-Term: Left Chart
For the bulls to over from a long-term perspective, we need a weekly candle close above 0.6 which would be breaking both the last major high and upper brown trendline.
📉 Medium-Term: Right Chart
For the bulls to over from a medium-term perspective, we need a daily candle close above the orange zone 0.420. And as price approaches the 0.320 support we will be looking for short-term buy setups.
Which scenario do you think is more probable and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BITCOIN FUTURE PRICE BULLISH🔋🔋Market moves in waves (hence the name), basically WaveEdge is a support to help you analyse market PA. Its not a plain and simple signal indicator, it requires some input from the user. First you define the trend you're in and the timeframe you want to trade. My take is that we are in a strong momentum uptrend and I'm looking to trade medium term, that's why I was looking for green crosses on the medium term timeframe 12hr-1D. On the long term (weekly) timeframe we can see triangles showing up, hence why I believe we're in a strong uptrend.
ITC breakout finally?ITC has given a weekly closing above its supply zone of 260-265 after 3 years also breaking its previous 52 week high with very heavy volumes.
From the chart, it is clearly visible it is an inverted head and shoulder pattern and stock has given closing above its neckline.
Let's see whether it sustains the breakout and bring happy faces on many investors' face;)
Cash flow statement or Three great riversToday we're going to start taking apart the third and final report that the company publishes each quarter and year - it's Cash flow statement.
Remember, when we studied the balance sheet , we learned that one of the company's assets is cash in accounts. This is a very important asset because if the company doesn't have money in the account, it can't buy raw materials, pay employees' salaries, etc.
What, in general, is a "company" in the eyes of an accountant? These are assets that have been purchased on credit or with equity, for the purpose of earning a net income for its shareholders or investing that income in further growth.
That is, the source of cash in a company's account may be profits . But why do I say "may be"? The point is that it's possible to have a situation where profits are positive on the income statement, but there is no money physically in the account. To make sense of this, let's remember the workshop I use in all the examples. Suppose our master sold all of his boots on credit. That is, he was promised payment, but later. He ended up with a receivable in assets and, most interestingly, generated revenue. The accountant will calculate the revenue for these sales, despite the fact that the shop hasn't actually received the money yet. Then the accountant will deduct the expenses from the revenue, and the result will be a profit. But there is zero money in the account. So what should our master do? The orders are coming in, but there is nothing to pay for the raw materials. In such circumstances, while the master is waiting for the repayment of debts from customers, he himself borrows from the bank to top up his current account with money.
Now let us make his situation more complicated. Let us assume that the money borrowed he still does not have enough, and the bank does not give more. The only thing left is to sell some of his property, that is, some of his assets. Remember, when we took apart the assets of the workshop , the master had shares in an oil company. This is something he could sell without hurting the production process. Then there is enough money in the checking account to produce boots uninterrupted.
Of course, this is a wildly exaggerated example, since more often than not, profits are money, after all, and not the virtual records of an accountant. Nevertheless, I gave this example to make it clear that cash in the account and profit are related, but still different concepts.
So what does the cash flow statement show? Let's engage our imagination again. Imagine a lake with three rivers flowing into it on the left and three rivers flowing out on the right. That is, on one side the lake feeds on water, and on the other side it gives it away. So the asset called "cash" on the balance sheet is the lake. And the amount of cash is the amount of water in that lake. Let's now name the three rivers that feed our lake.
Let's call the first river the operating cash flow . When we receive the money from product sales, the lake is filled with water from the first river.
The second river on the left is called the financial cash flow . This is when we receive financing from outside, or, to put it simply, we borrow. Since this is money received into the company's account, it also fills our lake.
The third river let's call investment cash flow . This is the flow of money we get from the sale of the company's non-current assets. In the example with the master, these were assets in the form of oil company stock. Their sale led to the replenishment of our notional money lake.
So we have a lake of money, which is filled thanks to three flows: operational, financial, and investment. That sounds great, but our lake is not only getting bigger, but it's also getting smaller through the three outgoing flows. I'll tell you about that in my next post. See you soon!
BITCOIN NEXT TRADE BULLISH🔋🔋Market moves in waves (hence the name), basically WaveEdge is a support to help you analyse market PA. Its not a plain and simple signal indicator, it requires some input from the user. First you define the trend you're in and the timeframe you want to trade. My take is that we are in a strong momentum uptrend and I'm looking to trade medium term, that's why I was looking for green crosses on the medium term timeframe 12hr-1D. On the long term (weekly) timeframe we can see triangles showing up, hence why I believe we're in a strong uptrend.
BITCOIN FUTURE PRICE BULLISH🔋🔋Market moves in waves (hence the name), basically WaveEdge is a support to help you analyse market PA. Its not a plain and simple signal indicator, it requires some input from the user. First you define the trend you're in and the timeframe you want to trade. My take is that we are in a strong momentum uptrend and I'm looking to trade medium term, that's why I was looking for green crosses on the medium term timeframe 12hr-1D. On the long term (weekly) timeframe we can see triangles showing up, hence why I believe we're in a strong uptrend.
My precious-s-s-s EPSIn the previous post , we began looking at the Income statement that the company publishes for each quarter and year. The report contains important information about different types of profits : gross profit, operating income, pretax income, and net income. Net income can serve both as a source of further investment in the business and as a source of dividend payments to shareholders (of course, if a majority of shareholders vote to pay dividends).
Now let's break down the types of stock on which dividends can be paid. There are only two: preferred stock and common stock . We know from my earlier post that a stock gives you the right to vote at a general meeting of shareholders, the right to receive dividends if the majority voted for them, and the right to part of the bankrupt company's assets if something is left after paying all debts to creditors.
So, this is all about common stock. But sometimes a company, along with its common stock, also issues so-called preferred stock.
What advantages do they have over common stock?
- They give priority rights to receive dividends. That is, if shareholders have decided to pay dividends, the owners of preferred shares must receive dividends, but the owners of common shares may be deprived because of the same decision of the shareholders.
- The company may provide for a fixed amount of dividend on preferred shares. That is, if the decision was made to pay a dividend, preferred stockholders will receive the fixed dividend that the company established when it issued the shares.
- If the company goes bankrupt, the assets that remain after the debts are paid are distributed to the preferred shareholders first, and then to the common shareholders.
In exchange for these privileges, the owners of such shares do not have the right to vote at the general meeting of shareholders. It should be said that preferred shares are not often issued, but they do exist in some companies. The specific rights of shareholders of preferred shares are prescribed in the founding documents of the company.
Now back to the income statement. Earlier we looked at the concept of net income. Since most investments are made in common stock, it would be useful to know what net income would remain if dividends were paid on preferred stock (I remind you: this depends on the decision of the majority of common stockholders). To do this, the income statement has the following line item:
- Net income available to common stockholders (Net income available to common stockholders = Net income - Dividends on preferred stock)
When it is calculated, the amount of dividends on preferred stock is subtracted from net income. This is the profit that can be used to pay dividends on common stock. However, shareholders may decide not to pay dividends and use the profits to further develop and grow the company. If they do so, they are acting as true investors.
I recall the investing formula from my earlier post : give something now to get more in the future . And so it is here. Instead of deciding to spend profits on dividends now, shareholders may decide to invest profits in the business and get more dividends in the future.
Earnings per share or EPS is used to understand how much net income there is per share. EPS is calculated very simply. As you can guess, all you have to do is divide the net income for the common stock by its number:
- EPS ( Earnings per share = Net income for common stock / Number of common shares issued).
There is an even more accurate measure that I use in my analysis, which is EPS Diluted or Diluted earnings per share :
- EPS Diluted ( Diluted earnings per share = Net income for common stock / (Number of common shares issued + Issuer stock options, etc.)).
What does "diluted" earnings mean, and when does it occur?
For example, to incentivize management to work efficiently, company executives may be offered bonuses not in monetary terms, but in shares that the company will issue in the future. In such a case, the staff would be interested in the stock price increase and would put more effort into achieving profit growth. These additional issues are called Employee stock options (or ESO ). Because the amount of these stock bonuses is known in advance, we can calculate diluted earnings per share. To do so, we divide the profit not by the current number of common shares already issued, but by the current number plus possible additional issues. Thus, this indicator shows a more accurate earnings-per-share figure, taking into account all dilutive factors.
The value of EPS or EPS Diluted is so significant for investors that if it does not meet their expectations or, on the contrary, exceeds them, the market may experience significant fluctuations in the share price. Therefore, it is always important to keep an eye on the EPS value.
In TradingView the EPS indicator as well as its forecasted value can be seen by clicking on the E button next to the timeline.
We will continue to discuss this topic in the next publication. See you soon!
BTC long term new cycle 1DBTC - Long term on logarithmic scale. See for yourself :)
Lower red line is support line dating back 2011!
Upper red line is resistance line dating back Oct 2021.
Blue vertical lines showcases the cyclical behaviour of BTC.
Another very insightful overview can be seen when applying the fibonacci time zone. Please check it out as well.
Don't forget to do your own research.
Please support this idea if you liked it :)
And always be careful <3
EURUSD - Trend-Following Setup!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
on H4: Left Chart
EURUSD is overall bullish trading inside the rising red channel and now sitting around the lower trendline so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes.
on M30: Right Chart
EURUSD is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern but it is not ready to go yet.
🏹Trigger => for the bulls to take over, we need a momentum candle close above the gray neckline.
Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, EURUSD can still trade lower.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Gold analysis of Nov 2022 TF Week (short- to long-term)Gold made the triple bottom at 1618 in the past two months. Recently, the price has reverse to 1772 as the negative CPI data and the inflation rate is lower than expected. This price action confirms the end of Wave C.
Short-term analysis
After the gold price has a sharp rally over 100 usd in last week, it is expected to have correction next week from 1772 (wave 1 green), but still in an uptrend. However, it should not drop below 1680 (wave 2 green).
Tradi ng strategy:
Sell 1772-1802
TP 1766/1758/1747
SL set according to your margin (probably hit 1806)
Medium-term analysis
It is necessary to wait for a confirmation signal from a pullback to wave 2 green, which should not fall below 1680 (wave 2 green). Then, it would be great chance to open long/buy positions.
In contrast, if gold has pullback lower than 1680, it has a chance of a bearish reversal, which means that this strong rebound (at 1772) is just a market correction. It may result in the price of gold continuing to decline in the long term (red wave)
Long-term analysis
1st scenario, if gold keep it rising trend, the price action can made a new high (> 2070) following to green wave (5)
2nd scenario, if gold reverses to a downtrend, we might see great drop to 1302 following to red wave (5). Regard to the "Gold price prediction chart pattern" my long term analyzed on March 30, 2022 (see more detail in attached link).
XFT Long for 2023-2025Hi,
I would like to share some gems that I think are good bets.
This is the chart with ETH pair, so price in USD may differs a bit.
The 1st support is roughly at $0.30, that it's the current bottom. If the price will ever get here again, I will buy massively.
The 2nd and 3rd support are respectively at roughly $0.80 and $1. The price, considering BTC movements and volatility may rebounce at these levels.
The 1st 2nd and 3rd resistance are respectively at $2, $2.75 and $4.
My entry is at $0.50
Exit gradually from $3
Why am I bullish?
- Product release in Q1
- Tokenomics is strictly linked with the cashflow: more inflow into the platform -> Buy pressure -> price goes up (and viceversa).
This is one of my long-term bag for the bullrun (that I think will happen and peak in 2024). I'm not trading it, but I'm HOLDING it.
PS: I will update here time to time with comments.
The income statement: the place where profit livesToday we are going to look at the second of the three main reports that a company publishes during the earnings season, the income statement. Just like the balance sheet, it is published every quarter and year. This is how we can find out how much a company earns and how much it spends. The difference between revenues and expenses is called profit . I would like to highlight this term "profit" again, because there is a very strong correlation between the dynamics of the stock price and the profitability of the company.
Let's take a look at the stock price charts of companies that are profitable and those that are unprofitable.
3 charts of unprofitable companies :
3 charts of profitable companies :
As we can see, stocks of unprofitable companies have a hard enough time growing, while profitable companies, on the contrary, are getting fundamental support to grow their stocks. We know from the previous post that a company's Equity grows due to Retained Earnings. And if Equity grows, so do Assets. Recall: Assets are equal to the sum of a company's Equity and Liabilities. Thus, growing Assets, like a winch attached to a strong tree, pull our machine (= stock price) higher and higher. This is, of course, a simplified example, but it still helps to realize that a company's financial performance directly affects its value.
Now let's look at how earnings are calculated in the income statement. The general principle is this: if we subtract all expenses from revenue, we get profit . Revenue is calculated quite simply - it is the sum of all goods and services sold over a period (a quarter or a year). But expenses are different, so in the income statement we will see one item called "Total revenue" and many items of expenses. These expenses are deducted from revenue gradually (top-down). That is, we don't add up all the expenses and then subtract the total expenses from the revenue - no. We deduct each expense item individually. So at each step of this subtraction, we get different kinds of profit : gross profit, operating income, pretax income, net income. So let's look at the report itself.
- Total revenue
This is, as we've already determined, the sum of all goods and services sold for the period. Or you could put it another way: this is all the money the company received from sales over a period of time. Let me say right off the bat that all of the numbers in this report are counted for a specific period. In the quarterly report, the period, respectively, is 1 quarter, and in the annual report, it is 1 year.
Remember my comparison of the balance sheet with the photo ? When we analyze the balance sheet, we see a photo (data snapshot) on the last day of the reporting period, but not so in the income statement. There we see the accumulated amounts for a specific period (i.e. from the beginning of the reporting quarter to the end of that quarter or from the beginning of the reporting year to the end of that year).
- Cost of goods sold
Since materials and other components are used to make products, accountants calculate the amount of costs directly related to the production of products and place them in this item. For example, the cost of raw materials for making shoes would fall into this item, but the cost of salaries for the accountant who works for that company would not. You could say that these costs are costs that are directly related to the quantity of goods produced.
- Gross profit (Gross profit = Total revenue - Cost of goods sold)
If we subtract the cost of goods sold from the total revenue, we get gross profit.
- Operating expenses (Operating expenses are costs that are not part of the cost of production)
Operating expenses include fixed costs that have little or no relation to the amount of output. These may include rental payments, staff salaries, office support costs, advertising costs, and so on.
- Operating income (Operating income = Gross profit - Operating expenses)
If we subtract operating expenses from gross profit, we get operating income. Or you can calculate it this way: Operating income = Total revenue - Cost of goods sold - Operating expenses.
- Non-operating income (this item includes all income and expenses that are not related to regular business operations)
It is interesting, that despite its name, non-operating income and operating income can have negative values. For this to happen, it is sufficient that the corresponding expenses exceed the income. This is a clear demonstration of how businessmen revere profit and income, but avoid the word "loss" in every possible way. Apparently, a negative operating income sounds better. Below is a look at two popular components of non-operating income.
- Interest expense
This is the interest the company pays on loans.
- Unusual income/expense
This item includes unusual income minus unusual expenses. "Unusual" means not repeated in the course of regular activities. Let's say you put up a statue of the company's founder - that's an unusual expense. And if it was already there, and it was sold, that's unusual income.
- Pretax income (Pretax income = Operating income + Non-operating income)
If we add or subtract (depending on whether it is negative or positive) non-operating income to operating income, we get pretax income.
- Income tax
Income tax reduces our profit by the tax rate.
- Net income (Net income = Pretax income - Income tax)
Here we get to the income from which expenses are no longer deducted. That is why it is called "net". It is the bottom line of any company's performance over a period. Net income can be positive or negative. If it's positive, it's good news for investors, because it can go either to pay dividends or to further develop the company and increase profits.
This concludes part one of my series of posts on the Income statement. In the next parts, we'll break down how net income is distributed to holders of different types of stock: preferred and common. See you soon!
$SHOP call 👀📈I've used a few tools and indicators to predict Shopify share price over the next couple weeks
Not investment advice
I believe SHOP is massively undervalued, with some exciting projects coming soon. We saw an ATH @ around $172 in Nov 2021, and since then the price has dropped around by over 4x less, to about $40. This is around $15 above the ATL.
However, £SHOP is also vulnerable to external factors, and as we saw in the news, Russia has apparently attacked Poland, which could be massive news for the market - a lot of investors will get spooked and sell shares. Shopify relies on online purchases, so there is both an advantage and a disadvantage for them.
Another factor I've spotted which I believe is great for the long term potential of $SHOP is the growth in ecommerce sales and the number of people starting ecommerce businesses. The recent downward economy has forced a lot of businesses to go online, growing the customer base and number of businesses that operate online. As we already know, ecommerce is booming already, but Statista predicts that global ecommerce sales will rise massively to over $8.1TRILLION! In 2021, this figure was just over $5.1trillion.