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S&P 500 index short term outlookThe S&P 500 Index (SPX) is trading within an ascending channel on its daily chart, signaling a continuation of the bullish trend. This structure is defined by parallel rising trendlines connecting higher highs and higher lows, indicating strong buyer interest and sustained momentum. Recent price action shows a breakout above minor resistance near the 5,900 level, confirming bullish sentiment. The index is currently moving toward the midpoint of the channel, with potential to test the upper boundary near 6,100. The lower trendline offers solid support, maintaining the channel's integrity. Volume will be crucial in validating any further upward moves. Increased volume during an advance toward the upper boundary would strengthen the bullish case, while declining volume may indicate consolidation or a pause in the trend. For traders, entering a long position while the index remains in the channel could be a viable strategy. A breakout above the upper boundary could present additional upside potential, with profit targets based on the channel's height projected upward. Stop-loss orders can be placed below the lower trendline or the most recent swing low near the 5,800 level to manage risk. This setup suggests the SPX is poised for continued gains, provided the channel remains intact. However, a break below the lower trendline could signal a reversal, requiring caution and adjustment of trading strategies.
SP:SPX
by TraderhrTrading
Gold on the Bitcoin fibonacci multiplierWhat bitcoin does on a small timescale of 15 year we see happening in gold on a multi decade scale. Looking at the Fibonacci lines you can see that the first peak in 1974 hit the Red Fib Multiplier before retracing again. In 1980 the second touch in this cycle hit the orange line. In 2011 gold hit the yellow line at $1900, As we are now in the second phase of this bull market, I expect gold to hit the red line between 2026 and 2030 at 7-10K Currently the cycle is dominated by uncertainty, risk aversion(debt load) and inflation and I dont see a change in the world for these topics in the next few years.
TVC:GOLDLong
by timschell
1
Market (Sectors) Performance OutlookSince November 6th, we’ve witnessed a seismic shift in the market landscape, with crypto breaking through and outperforming the broader market. 📈 The sectors leading the charge against the S&P 500 are XLY, XLE, XLF, XLC, and XLK. Notably, the MAG 7 have also been outpacing the market since November 7th. 💪 Smart money seems to be flowing into crypto, contributing to the sell-off in the S&P 500. From a macroeconomic perspective, XLK and XLC have been market leaders for the past few months. However, it might be time to pivot towards the Energy sector, especially after a stellar earnings season where major E&P companies smashed their earnings estimates. ⚡️ Stay tuned and ready to capitalize on these dynamic market movements! 📊💼
NASDAQ:MAGS
by MESHANL
Economic standpoint (Majors) Week Commencing 11/11/24Lest we Forget. Romans 8:18 I consider that our present sufferings are not worth comparing with the glory that will be revealed in us. GDP 1.1 USD The US economy expanded an annualised 2.8% in Q3 2024, below 3% in Q2 and forecasts of 3%, Personal spending increased at the fastest pace since Q1 2023 (3.7% vs 2.8% in Q2), boosted by a 6% surge in consumption of goods and robust spending on services. Government consumption rose more (5% vs 3.1%), led by defence spending. In addition, the contribution from net trade was less negative (-0.56 pp vs -0.9 pp), with both exports (8.9% vs 1%) and imports (11.2% vs 7.6%) soaring. On the other hand, private inventories dragged 0.17 pp from the growth, after adding 1.05 pp in Q2. Also, fixed investment slowed (1.3% vs 2.3%), led by a decline in structures (-4% vs 0.2%) and residential investment (-5.1% vs -2.8%). Investment in equipment, however, soared (11.1% vs 9.8%). The GDP Growth Rate in the United States is expected to be 1.50% by the end of this quarter, In the long-term, the United States GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 1.80% in 2025. 1.2 EUR The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.4% in Q3 2024, doubling the 0.2% growth in Q2 and surpassing forecasts of 0.2%, according to preliminary estimates from Eurostat. Consumer spending increased moderately, driven by rising household incomes and a resilient labour market1. Exports and imports grew by 1.1% and 1.3% respectively, while government spending slightly increased. The German economy avoided a recession with a 0.2% expansion, and GDP growth quickened in France (0.4% vs 0.2% in Q2). However, Italy's economy stalled and Latvia remained in contraction (-0.4% vs -0.3%). Year-on-year, the Eurozone GDP expanded by 0.9%, marking the best performance since Q1 2023. The European Central Bank (ECB) projects that economic growth will continue to be supported by rising household incomes, a resilient labour market, and increasing confidence, with GDP growth expected to reach 1.5% in 2025. 1.3 GBP The UK economy expanded by 0.5% in Q3 2024, below the 0.7% growth seen in Q2 and forecasts of 0.6%, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Household spending increased slightly (0.2% vs 0.1% in Q2), driven by transport, housing, and miscellaneous expenses. Government consumption also rose (1.1% vs 1.4%), led by public administration and defence, which offset a fall in health spending. However, exports decreased by 0.3%, compared to initial estimates of a 0.8% rise, driven by a 2.8% decrease in goods exports. Imports increased by 6.3%, down from 7.7%. On the other hand, gross capital formation was revised higher (0.6% vs 0.4%), with business investment soaring 1.4%, compared to a 0.1% drop in the preliminary estimate. The GDP Growth Rate in the United Kingdom is expected to be 0.50% by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts' expectations. In the long term, the United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 0.60% in 2025. Inflation 2.1 USD The annual inflation rate in the US unexpectedly slowed to 2.4% in November, the lowest since March ‘21 compared to 3.4% in April and forecasts of 3.4%. Inflation has slightly increased for food by 0.2%. Shelter remains stubbornly high and expected to remain elevated, with forecasts suggesting it will reach 4.8% year-over-year in December 2024 and stay above pandemic levels well into ‘25. Transportations were down (10.5% vs 11.2%), and apparel (0.8% vs 1.0%), while energy costs rose more (3.7% vs 2.6%), particularly gasoline (2.2% vs 1.1%), utility gas service (0.2% vs -1.9%), and fuel oil (3.6% vs -0.8%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI was unchanged, the least since July 2022, against forecasts of a 0.1% increase and following a 0.3% rise in April. A decline in gasoline prices was offset by higher shelter costs. Meanwhile, core inflation slowed to 2.4% annually, the lowest rate since April 2021 and below the consensus of 3.5%. The monthly core inflation rate also fell to 0.1% from 0.2%, better than forecasts of 0.3%. Consumer prices in the US were unchanged in May 2024 after rising 0.3% in the previous period and below forecasts of a 0.1% increase. The energy index fell 2% over the month, led by a 3.6% decrease in the gasoline index. Conversely, the index for shelter rose 0.4%, while food prices edged up by 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, core consumer prices rose 0.2%, easing from a 0.3% increase in the previous month and marking a fresh 7-month low. 2.2 EUR Over the past two months, the Eurozone has experienced a notable stabilisation in its inflation rates. After peaking at 2.6% in July 2024, the annual inflation rate has steadily declined to 2.0% in October 2024. This trend can be attributed to a slower rise in energy costs and a more moderate increase in the prices of food, alcohol, and tobacco. Additionally, the costs of services and non-energy industrial goods have shown a more contained increase. The European Central Bank’s objective of achieving a 2% inflation rate has been met, signalling a balanced approach to monetary policy and overall economic stability. Consumer confidence has also seen an improvement, with the economic sentiment indicator rising to 103.5 in October from 102.9 in the previous month, reflecting optimism about future economic conditions and stability in the region. 2.3 GBP The UK has also seen a similar trend in its inflation rates over the past two months, with a slight but steady decline. In September 2024, the inflation rate was recorded at 2.2%, which decreased to 2.0% in October 2024. This reduction is primarily driven by a decrease in energy prices, specifically in gas and electricity, and a slower growth rate in the cost of non-energy industrial goods. Additionally, the prices of clothing and footwear have shown a moderate increase, contributing to the overall inflation rate. The Bank of England continues to monitor these trends to ensure that inflation remains within the target range, supporting sustainable economic growth. The labour market has remained resilient, with unemployment rates stable at 3.8%, and wage growth showing a positive trend, which helps in sustaining consumer spending and overall economic activity. 3. Interest Rates 3.1 USD The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds target range at 4.50%-4.75% during its November 2024 meeting, following a 25 basis points cut in September. This move marks the second rate cut this year as policymakers respond to cooling inflation. The decision aligns with the Fed's cautious approach to monetary policy, aiming to balance economic growth with price stability. The central bank's projections now anticipate one more rate cut by the end of 2024 and several additional reductions in 2025, with the long-term rate expected to settle around 3.25% by 2026. The Fed's GDP growth projections remain steady at 2.1% for 2024, reflecting a resilient economy. However, PCE inflation has been revised downward to 2.4% for 2025, indicating expectations of further easing price pressures. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4% for 2024, with a slight increase to 4.2% in 2025, as the labour market adjusts to the evolving economic conditions. This cautious but responsive approach underscores the Fed's commitment to achieving its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. 3.2 EUR In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) has continued its efforts to manage inflation by adjusting key interest rates. In October 2024, the ECB lowered the deposit facility rate to 3.25%, the main refinancing operations rate to 3.40%, and the marginal lending facility rate to 3.65%. These changes follow similar rate cuts in September and June, reflecting the ECB's commitment to ensuring inflation moves towards its 2% target. The ECB's updated assessment indicates that disinflation is progressing well, with inflation falling below the target for the first time in over three years. While short-term inflation expectations have risen slightly, the ECB remains focused on achieving medium-term price stability through a data-driven, flexible approach. 3.3 GBP In the UK, the Bank of England has taken a cautious approach to interest rates in recent months. In its November 2024 meeting, the Bank decided to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, marking the second rate cut this year following a similar reduction in August. This decision was driven by evidence of slowing price growth, with September's inflation print dropping to an over three-year low of 1.7%1. Services inflation, which tends to be stickier, fell to a two-year low of 4.9%, although it remains elevated. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 8 to 1 in favour of the cut, with one member opting for a hold. The Bank now projects inflation to end the year at 2.5% and to reach 2.2% by 2026. Additionally, the expansionary budget delivered by the Labour Party is expected to lift GDP growth by 0.75% at its peak impact within a year. The Bank continues to monitor economic indicators closely to ensure that inflation remains within the target range, supporting sustainable economic growth. 4. Unemployment & NFP 4.1 USD The unemployment rate in the United States increased to 4.1% in October 2024, up from 4.0% in September. This rise was driven by an increase in the number of unemployed individuals, which reached 6.649 million, up by 157,000 from the previous month. The labour force participation rate remained steady at 62.5%, while the employment-population ratio slightly decreased to 60.1%. The rise in unemployment was somewhat unexpected, as market forecasts had predicted the rate to remain unchanged. In terms of Non-Farm Payrolls, the US economy added 272,000 jobs in October 2024, marking the highest monthly increase in the past five months. This figure surpassed market expectations of 185,000 jobs and was significantly higher than the downwardly revised 165,000 jobs added in September. The healthcare sector led the job gains with 68,000 new jobs, while other sectors such as leisure and hospitality, and professional, scientific, and technical services also saw notable increases. However, employment in mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction, construction, and manufacturing showed little or no change. 4.2 EUR In October 2024, the unemployment rate in the Eurozone remained stable at 6.3%, unchanged from the previous month. This rate is a decrease from 6.6% in September 2023, indicating a gradual improvement in the job market over the past year. Eurostat estimates that 10.884 million people were unemployed in the Eurozone during this period. Despite the stable unemployment rate, unemployed individuals increased slightly by 13,000 compared to August 2024. The youth unemployment rate in the Eurozone saw a slight increase to 14.4% in October 2024, up from 14.3% in September. This rise highlights ongoing challenges in the labour market for younger workers, even as the overall unemployment rate shows signs of improvement1. The stability in the unemployment rate suggests that while the job market is not worsening, it is also not improving significantly, indicating a need for continued efforts to boost employment opportunities, especially for the youth. 4.3 GBP In the United Kingdom, the unemployment rate saw a slight decline to 4.0% in the three-month period from June to August 2024, down from 4.1% in the previous quarter. This decrease brought the number of unemployed individuals down to 1.39 million, the lowest level since January 2024. The decline in unemployment was slightly better than market estimates, indicating a positive trend in the UK job market2. The labour force participation rate remained steady at 62.5%, while the employment-population ratio increased to 60.1%. This suggests that more people are entering the workforce and finding jobs, contributing to the overall improvement in the labour market. Despite the positive trend in unemployment, the UK economy faced some challenges in the labour market. The number of payrolled employees decreased by 35,000 between July and August 2024, reflecting some volatility in employment figures. However, the longer-term trend shows an increase of 165,000 paid employees compared to August 2023. The early estimate for September 2024 indicated a slight decrease of 15,000 in payrolled employees, but this figure is provisional and subject to revision. The overall employment rate increased to 75.0% in the year from June to August 2024, indicating a resilient job market despite some short-term fluctuations. 5. Manufacturing & Services 5.1 USD Manufacturing: In October 2024, the U.S. manufacturing sector continued to face challenges, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI remaining in contraction territory at 46.5. This marks a seventh consecutive month of decline, driven by weak demand and ongoing uncertainties ahead of the presidential election1. Key industries such as transportation equipment and chemical products reported significant contractions, while apparel and petroleum products saw some growth. The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts have yet to significantly boost manufacturing activity1. Services: On a brighter note, the U.S. services sector experienced a notable expansion in October 2024, with the ISM Services PMI rising to 56.0, the highest level since July 2022. This growth was supported by increased employment and supplier deliveries, despite some political uncertainty and disruptions from hurricanes2. The services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, continues to show resilience and is expected to maintain a brisk pace of activity through the year-end holiday season. 5.2 EUR Manufacturing: The Eurozone's manufacturing sector continued to struggle in October 2024, with the HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rising slightly to 46.0 from 45.0 in September. Despite this slight improvement, the sector has seen 28 consecutive months of contraction, the longest downturn since records began in 19972. Production volumes fell for the 19th month, constrained by a further decline in new factory orders, leading to additional job cuts. However, contractions in production, sales, and employment softened over the month. Services: In contrast, the Eurozone's services sector showed resilience in October 2024, with the HCOB Eurozone Services PMI edging higher to 51.6 from 51.4 in September. This indicates a continued expansion, albeit at a modest pace. New contracts for service providers fell for a second consecutive month, particularly with export orders declining the most in ten months. Nonetheless, employment levels continued to rise, and respondents remained confident about activity levels in the upcoming 12 months 5.3 GBP Manufacturing: The UK manufacturing sector contracted in October 2024, with the S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI falling to 49.9 from 51.5 in September. This marks the first time the PMI has fallen below the neutral 50.0 mark since April, indicating a contraction in the sector. The decline was driven by a lack of market optimism, slower economic growth, stretched supply chains, and concerns about the potential impact of the upcoming Budget. New work intakes and output growth saw significant reductions, reflecting the challenging environment for UK manufacturers. Services: In contrast, the UK services sector continued to grow, albeit slower. The S&P Global UK Services PMI stood at 52.0 in October 2024, down from 52.4 in September. While the sector remains in expansion, the growth rate was the weakest since November 20233. The slowdown was attributed to heightened business uncertainty and concerns about the general economic outlook ahead of the Budget. Despite this, new business growth and employment levels in the services sector remained positive, indicating continued resilience. 6. Consumer Confidence 6.1 USD In October 2024, consumer confidence in the US rebounded significantly, with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rising to 108.7 from 99.2 in September. This increase was driven by improved perceptions of current business conditions and job availability, as well as increased optimism about future business conditions and income1. The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers' assessment of current business and labour market conditions, jumped by 14.2 points to 138.0, while the Expectations Index, reflecting short-term outlooks, increased by 6.3 points to 89.1. This rise in consumer confidence suggests that Americans are feeling more positive about the economy as the year comes to a close 6.2 EUR In October 2024, consumer confidence in the UK experienced a slight decline, with the GfK Consumer Confidence Index falling to -21 from -20 in September. This drop to the lowest level this year was largely due to uncertainties surrounding the upcoming budget and rising energy bills, which deterred shoppers1. Despite a fall in the headline rate of inflation, consumers remain cautious about the general economic situation. However, there was a slight increase in the Major Purchase Index, suggesting some optimism about future discretionary spending. 6.3 GBP In October 2024, consumer confidence in the Eurozone saw a modest improvement, with the consumer confidence indicator rising to -12.5 from -12.9 in September. This increase of 0.4 points was driven by slightly more optimistic views on the general economic and personal financial conditions. Despite this uptick, consumer confidence remains below its long-term average, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and economic stability. The improvement, however, suggests a cautious optimism among Eurozone consumers as they navigate the current economic landscape. Overall Market outlook/summary Market Summary/Outlook: Stocks The return of Donald Trump to the White House has sent shockwaves through financial markets, with U.S. stocks surging to record highs. Investors are optimistic about Trump's economic agenda, which includes tax cuts, deregulation, and increased infrastructure spending. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have both seen significant gains, driven by expectations of strong corporate earnings growth and a more market-friendly regulatory environment. However, there are concerns about rising inflation and higher interest rates, which could eventually weigh on stock valuations. The market's initial euphoria may be tempered by these factors as the new administration's policies unfold. Market Summary/Outlook: Crypto The cryptocurrency market has also reacted positively to Trump's return, with Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies reaching new highs. Trump's previous support for cryptocurrencies and his pledge to reduce regulatory burdens have boosted investor confidence. The price of Bitcoin surged nearly 8% to a record $75,345, while other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Dogecoin also saw significant gains. However, the market remains highly volatile, and regulatory uncertainties could pose risks. Investors are closely watching for any new policies that could impact the crypto space, as Trump's administration navigates the complex landscape of digital assets. Follow for more updates @activejjhhh Disclaimer Any and all liability for risks resulting from investment transactions or other asset dispositions carried out by the consumer based on information received or a market analysis is expressly excluded by 1 "jj". All the information made available here is generally provided to serve as an example only, without obligation and without specific recommendations for action. It does not constitute and cannot replace investment advice. We therefore recommend that you contact your personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. In view of the high risks, you should only carry out such transactions if you understand the nature of the contracts (and contractual relationships) you are entering into and if you are able to fully assess the extent of your risk potential. Trading with futures, options, forex, CFDs, stocks, cryptocurrencies and similar financial instruments is not suitable for many people. You should carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you based on your experience, your objectives, your financial situation and other relevant circumstances. RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FOREX TRADING Trading in foreign exchange ("Forex") on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Before you decide to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully assess your investment objectives, experience, financial possibilities and willingness to take risks. There is a possibility that you will lose your initial investment partially or completely. Therefore, you should not invest any funds that you cannot afford to completely lose in a worst-case scenario. You should also be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and contact an independent financial advisor in case of doubt. None of the information made available by me "jj" constitutes an invitation to trade in financial instruments or securities of any kind. I wish to point out that trading in stocks, currencies, CFDs (Contracts for Difference), Forex, spread betting, futures and cryptocurrencies, etc. ("Trading") involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors: in particular, past developments do not necessarily indicate future results. Please note that the risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore find out the details of your financial situation and, if necessary, consult professional help to assess whether your personal and financial situation allows trading and whether you are in a position to take the high risk of loss. If a broker, a commercial adviser or you yourself create contingent orders, such as a "stop loss" or "stop "limit/order", such will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts; market conditions may make such limits impossible.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by activejjhhh
BTC arriving at BIG resistance, early! but....I am bearish BUT, with bullish optimism and a possibility of big a big bull, based on current market momentum. This is actually a great place and likely place for it to pull back based on its prior pattern, but this momentum could prove otherwise. I am marking this neutral and no one wants to review neutral reviews they want to see bull or bear. The thing is we are at a pivotal point that will make the case for either a prolonged bull or bear market. I am not sure if we will break out or break down but I have painted the picture of how we are at that point right now. I will post again bull or bear once it seems to have committed to one or the other but otherwise just keep your eye on the trend lines. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Here we are around $1000 less of $82.5k and we got here early. We are likely to have resistance here but breaking this line would be really significant and likely signal a parabolic crypto market to come, massive. The odds would put it at pulling back here as it has already twice in the past 4 years, and at minimum some resistance where it can consolidate potentially all the way up until late Dec before making a decision. It may still be December, but really the market feels like it might have enough fire to push through it real soon. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Order books have actually been fairly range bound all year, we are at the high end but its nothing that screams some large increase in participation of day trading. Per CoinMarketFlow, global order books are around a -10% ratio on a 1d candle average at above 10% depth of market. This is actually ideal as it represents day traders with limit orders that expect the price to rise and less that expect it to fall. This is bullish ATM. I have been seeing lots of alts breaking resistance and converting it to support, lots of chance for jumps. Right now seems like a day traders paradise with 25%-50% sometimes 100% runs in a single day, from lower liquidity, low circulation coins especially. Right now the fire of the market makes me think we may break the resistance and truly fly to the moon. But the fact that order books have only grown by about 10%-15% or so over the last year, does make me question the durability of the run without more gas for the fire so to speak. If BTC breaks that 82.5k and proves it as support, it is as bullish as it gets, like hyperbolic potential. On the other hand, if we resist here again, as usual, then it could be a lot of prolonged pullback with a potential absolute low between $30k-$40k probably - based on this chart you are looking at now and considering a pullback like it did the last two times. So its more of a bearish layup that looks like it has the possibility to convert bullish. I would caution to be vigilant at or near this line and let it choose first before taking any real action. As usual DYOR but consider this trendline as one of your many things to watch to help you make more informed decisions.
by EncryptShawn
Adaptive Volume Flow Indicator (AVFI)The Adaptive Volume Flow Indicator (AVFI) is an advanced version of the traditional Volume Flow Indicator (VFI) that adapts to market conditions by using dynamic volatility and volume thresholds. It improves volume analysis by reducing false signals in low-volatility environments and adjusting sensitivity during high-volatility periods. Key features include: Dynamic volatility cutoff using ATR to adjust sensitivity based on market conditions. Adaptive volume cap that adjusts to the asset’s average volume, avoiding skewed signals. Customizable smoothing methods with options for EMA or SMA. Improved noise filtering, making it more reliable in sideways or low-volume markets. The AVFI helps identify trend strength, volume-driven price movements, and potential reversals, offering a more accurate and adaptable tool for traders.
MCX:GOLD1!
by TradeTrendsPro
1