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Meanreversion

[Positional] Bharat Forge Long & Short BetBuy if breaks above : based on bullish Flag theory Sell if breaks below : Based on mean reversion theory Note - One of the best forms of Price Action is to not try to predict at all. Instead of that, ACT on the price. So, this chart tells at "where" to act in "what direction. Unless it triggers, like, let's say the candle doesn't break the level which says "Buy if it breaks", You should not buy at all. ======= I use shorthands for my trades. "Positional" - means You can carry these positions and I do not see sharp volatility ahead. (I tally upcoming events and many small kinds of stuff to my own tiny capacity.) "Intraday" -means You must close this position at any cost by the end of the day. "Theta" , Trade Setup based on option Decay ! ======= I won't personally follow any rules. If I "think" (It is never gut feel. It is always some reason.) the trade is wrong, I may take reverse trade. I may carry forward an intraday position. What is meant here - You shouldn't follow me because I may miss updating. You should follow the system I share. ======= Like - Always follow a stop loss. In the case of Intraday trades, it is mostly the "Day's High". In the case of Positional trades, it is mostly the previous swings. =======
NSE:BHARATFORG
by ShivamMendhare
BTC likely has a technical bounce likely coming. but from where?Want to draw your attention to the purple line. the cpr or central pivot zone. notice how price reverts either direct to strike these levels reguardless if price continues or reverses. This same thing happens on daily cprs, weekly, and monthy cpr with over a 90% rate of occurance. This chart is projecting the future weekly levels. it is possible that the reversion happens prior to the close. or following... likely from the coming L3 which right now is at 31k These types of bounces reguardless of how frequent are hard to play because the developing or "next level" s they are labelled on the chart is hard to be sure of before they are set in stone. That being said dca is a possible stradegy. Currenly the incoming cpr levels are 2 to 4k higher than this price point. So I would expect a bounce from these regions or 30 / 31.5 up the where the new central pivot is formed upon the weekly close.
by Gunslinger2005
5
EOS eosusdt monthly camarilla pivotsDaily chart. with monthly cam pivots. So long as it can bounce off of or hold above the monthly L3. It might be a good entry position after some long consolidation. It is worth noting that the weekly stop loss level for those wanting a stop loss (aka level L4) is around 4.28. For those who want to run a tighter risk reward trade Also a wide cpr and untested monthly pivot shows hints of a higher possibility that the price may range instead of simply tank from here
Long
by Gunslinger2005
Ethereum 05/13/21, Mean Reversion studyThis is a really simple (almost too simple) way of predicting the most likely number of candles before a revisit to a certain level, presuming no outside factors increase the required sample of study. I have just tried to predict very specific candle positions and times as well as the bottom, but this is only for the extreme near future (ie, the easiest to predict), past that it becomes harder unless you reduce your precision several factors. This is an ideal situation where there is a clear median that it has clung to, and the standard deviations are very obvious and apparent. Note: I am only counting candle bodies, not wicks. edit: I also made the highlight before the current hour while I was writing this it seems to agree with me so far.
Education
by sofie4
Eth monthly mean reversion dip potentiallythere is still a day or so to make a stab at 3k. however even if it does the monthly close will leave a several hundred dollar lower developed pivot which historically btc and eth love hitting after closures. It is also worth noting that the developing pivot range is wide. indicating potentially a ranging territory for the next monthly levels. all and all maybe not the best time to hop in. and if on leverage maybe await the mean pivot reversion . chart is using camarillA pivots and CPR on monthly levels
by Gunslinger2005
029. Metallic Mean Reversion: Long Gold/Short CopperWell, well, well.. what an interesting setup we have here in the realm of the metals. It seems that confusion regarding inflation may have caused price overshoots in different directions for different metals. Two of such that glare out to me are Gold and Copper. I will structure the write-up of this Pig-Play a bit differently this time due to the inherent complexity of this trade, and more importantly because either half of this strangle can be taken successfully, in and of itself. While I find this particular situation to be blatantly weird (and thus near-technical arbitrage), either commodity is trading so far away from its respective mean that both plays should work wonders individually. Henceforth, while I recommend taking both plays simultaneously, I will outline each in different sections - in case one mean reversion is enough for you. LONG GOLD (GLD): As the chart suggests, Gold and its major ETF, GLD, have been consolidating in a comical fashion for too many months. In fact, I decided to perform a little accounting to determine what the fair price of Gold is after the most recent trillion-dollar stimulus print. The calculation and subsequent "should be" price are as follows: _______________________________________________________________________________ Data as of February 2021: USD in Circulation: 21.0006 Trillion United States (Monopoly) Dollars (www.quandl.com) Troy Ounces of Gold Mined: ~147.30 Million Troy Ounces (www.gold.org) _______________________________________________________________________________ Data as of March 2021: USD in Circulation: 21.0006 T + 1.9 T = 22.9006 Trillion USD; Post-Biden Print Troy Ounces of Gold Mined: ~147.30 M + ~0 = 147.30 Million Troy Ounces; Essentially Unchanged (www.commonsensemath.com) _______________________________________________________________________________ Gold USD/OZ Today: 1736 $/oz "Should Be" Price of Gold Post-Print: 22.9006 Trillion USD/147.30 Million Ounces = 3285.93 $/oz _______________________________________________________________________________ In conclusion, based on hard data, simple math, and basic accounting principles, Gold should be recognized at 3285.93 USD per troy ounce by the market and all of its participants. Yet, after the stimulus announcement, the price of Gold did not, in fact, immediately jump to over 3k/oz. No, instead it decreased and (hopefully) bottomed below 1700.oz. That, my piggish friends, is called fucking stupidity. In final conclusion, Gold is due for a mean reversion to around 1850ish in the near term, so its ETF, GLD, should get to around 175.00 in no time. See the chart for entry and two profit taking points. GLD PIG SPECS: Buy Long Calls: 164 Strike, 4/16/2021 Expiration Reasoning: Extreme likelihood of mean reversion back to 175 that has not been recognized by the options market yet. The proof is in the pricing: 164 Strike is relatively the same price as 167-169, so its 3 extra dollars of free delta in your pocket. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ SHORT COPPER (CPER): I will not be performing any basic calculations for this one. In opposition to Gold, and mostly for extreme oversold conditions, Copper has ripped higher in a straight line for many weeks now (this market is so fucked up these days). The degree to which Copper, and other such earth metals, have had deeply depressed prices for several years is something akin to statistical impossibility. Frankly, they have been quite manipulated downward a la futures short selling, but I will not lecture about this today. Bottom line is that Copper's run upward is, in my opinion, purely technical rebalancing. As with all things market-related these days, it overshot the mean by a country mile. Thus, the chart suggests that a very simple and predictable C-Wave down should be expected to begin in the next session or two. Since the dollars/share to the downside is pretty limited for this trade, I'd stick with at the money puts for a short flip. See the chart for entry/exits and below for Pig Specs: CPER PIG SPECS: Buy Long Puts: 25 Strike, 04/09/2021 Expiration OR Short Equity Directly at 24.83/Share Reasoning: Chart says it all, but the one factor that should illicit confidence is the purely technical, precise nature of this move down. It also provides same-week expiration opportunities such that I am actually recommending purchasing put contracts that are slightly in the money. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The cool parts about doing both of these trades simultaneously are: 1) You get a high probability of profiting in both directions; 2) Both commodities often travel in the same direction because both are metals that negatively correlate with dollar strength, all else equal. This means that you get a natural hedge baked in; 3) Due to general, market-wide idiocy, both metals have been severely oversold (bought) to the point where each basically must mean revert to some extent during the same timeframe; 4) The precise nature of the Copper trade allows for a slight calendar strangle as a final cherry on top. I don't know about you, but I feel even more convinced after doing so much simple math. In any case, it should be clear that the commodities market is offering up opportunities while the stock market isn't and I intend to exploit it piggishly. -PigFourAccountant OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD AMEX:GLD MCX:GOLD1! MCX:COPPER1! AMEX:CPER AMEX:GLD
AMEX:CPER
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
9
Technical say ASX REITS are overboughtWhile doing my daily search for possible trade options i found that among my many short alerts had a common trait. 5/8 Short alerts were all REITs. Now I'm not saying real estate is gonna crash or to prepare for another 2008 crisis however it appears that most ASX REITs are overvalued from a technical standpoint which opens the idea for a potential short. These stocks will be displayed below along with the bearish indicators aswell 1. Growthpoint Properties Australia (ASX: GOZ) Bearish Technical Analysis: --> 2 Standard deviations from Mean (Mean Reversion) --> 3 standard deviations from Linear regression --> RSI overbought --> MFI overbought --> Bollinger bands overbought --> Resistance at 0.764 level on Fibonacci retracement --> Japanese Bearish Candle Dark Cloud Cover 2. Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (ASX:CLW) Bearish Technical Analysis: --> 2 standard deviations away on linear regression --> Failure to break 0.764 level on Fibonacci retracement --> No strong volume breaking ascending triangle to act as momentum --> RSI slightly overvalued Bullish Technical Analysis: --> Support between $4.80-$4.83 (Ascending triangle line) 3. Charter Hall Retail REIT (ASX:CQR) Bearish Technical Analysis: --> 2 standard deviations away on linear regression --> Resistance at Fibonacci level 0.618 --> 2 Standard deviations from mean (Mean reversion) --> Resistance level at $3.98 Bullish Technical Analysis: --> Support level at $3.84 5. National Storage REIT (ASX:NSR) Bearish Technical Analysis: --> 3 standard deviations away on linear regression --> RSI overbought --> 3 standard deviations away from mean (Mean reversion) --> MFI overbought --> Still overbought in Bollinger Bands --> Resistance level at $2.17 Bullish Technical Analysis: --> Support level at $3.13 Dexus, Goodman Group aswell as Cromwell property also have signs of being oversold however was not alerted by my scripts. Overall i see a pretty solid consensus that a majority of the ASX REITS are overvalued and a possible drop can be ahead however as real estate stocks jump more reactively to fundamental announcements it is important to also address that aswell.
ASX:XPJShort
by Mikey_Scali
Pullback and Trend Following Strategy with Sideways FilterThis is a strategy of short to medium term trading which combine two famous strats, they are: Pullback (mean reversion) and Trend Following. I recently code this strategy using pine script to see how profitable in long run, so later on I can set alert to the stocks in my watchlist (the pine-script source code is in the end of the post). I only apply in long position because in my country doesn't allow short trading, but feel free if you want to extend short position. As of now the result of back-tests are quite promising which I expected (overall 10-50% profit for 3 year back-test data). Okay let's begin. Trend following can be catch up with simple golden crosses between fast and medium moving average. This strategy will make the most of your profit source, I guarantee you. In this strategy I apply SMA which set by default 20 and 50 period for fast and medium MA respectively. One of the weakness of trend following is on sideways market. In order to prevent false signal generated in sideways market, I need to filter sideways range out of the trend. I use ADX indicator which can use to identify sideways market, but some methods can also be applied as per this blog post (www.quantnews.com). Basically trend following will allows you to buy high and sell higher, the risk of this strategy is the false signals. Entry signals at golden cross (fast MA cross-over medium MA from down to up) and exit signal when dead cross (fast MA cross-under medium MA from top to down) happens. If you can catch a good strong uptrend you can combine with pyramiding strategy to average up your position. Back-test with pyramiding strategy is so tricky in TradingView, I already try it but end-up with lower profit result. So, I will do pyramiding things manually once I found a good strong uptrend. The important message is YOU CANNOT MISSED STRONG UPTREND, when the alert of trend-following golden cross happens, tighten your seat belt and don't hesitate to put your position high with strict stop loss. The signal of strong uptrend usually after breakout its resistance with a good amount of volume. In the next update I will try to consider volume as well, as a confirmation of breakout. So the signals would be filtered only for the strong uptrend. Valid signals will give you a good profit margin. In summary below are the points for trend following part: Using Simple Moving Average Medium SMA by default is 50-periods Fast SMA by default is 20-periods MA periods shall be chosen based on the stocks chart trend characteristics to maximize profit. Entry when golden cross signal happens (fast MA cross-over medium MA from down to up) Exit when dead cross signal happens (fast MA cross-under medium MA from top to down) Reject false signals by using sideways range filter Second part is mean-reversion or pullback trade strategy. This is the strategy which allows you to buy low sell high and the risk is when you buy low, the market will keep going lower. The key of mean-reversion is the momentum. Once your momentum guessing is correct you can achieve a very good profit in relatively short time. Here, I will use oscillator based momentum indicator RSI (Relative Strength Index) as a criteria. For entry I use 2-period RSI which not more than 5%. Why 5% ?, that's experimental value which can provide me an enough confirmation of weakness momentum. Then for exit setup I use 5-period RSI which pass 40%. A strong weak momentum in overall will be pushed as high as 40% and 40% RSI can be considered as lower bound of sideways market swing. Last but not least, this pullback trade shall be executed only in above 200-period MA, as a confirmation that overall swing is in uptrend. Thus, if the market going sideways I will use pullback trade and if the market going to form an uptrend, the strategy will sense a golden cross SMA. Inside the chart of this post, you see red and green background color. That is indicate sideways or trend market relatively to ADX index. You can adjust the parameter in order to maximize profit. To summarize the second part (pullback trade) are: Use 200-period SMA as a first filter for sideways market. Got a sideways market confirmation with ADX index. Entry on below 5% of its 2-period RSI Exit on above 40% of its 5-period RSI or after 10 days of trade. In the other part of my script also included the rule to size your entry position. Please find below the full pine-script source code of above explained strategy. Hopes it will drive your profit well. Let me know your feedback then. Thanks. // START ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- // This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at mozilla.org // © m4cth0r //@version=4 // 1. Define strategy settings commValue = 0.19 * 0.01 strategy(title="PB/TF+SWAY-NOTPYRM", overlay=true, pyramiding=0, initial_capital=20000000, commission_type=strategy.commission.percent, commission_value=commValue, slippage=2, calc_on_every_tick=true) //----- MA Length slowMALen = input(200,step=1,minval=5,title="Slow MA Length") midMALen = input(40,step=1,minval=5,title="Mid MA Length") fastMALen = input(20,step=1,minval=5,title="Fast MA Length") //----- DMI Length DiLen = input(20,minval=1,title="DI Length") ADXSmoothLen = input(15,minval=1,title="ADX Smoothing", maxval=50) ADXThreshold = input(21,step=1,title="ADX Sideway Threshold") //----- RSI2 for Entry, RSI5 for Exit RSIEntryLen = input(title="PB RSI Length (Entry)", type=input.integer, defval=2) RSIExitLen = input(title="PB RSI Length (Exit)", type=input.integer, defval=5) RSIEntryThreshold = input(title="PB RSI Threshold % (Entry)", type=input.integer, defval=5) RSIExitThreshold = input(title="PB RSI Threshold % (Exit)", type=input.integer, defval=40) //----- Backtest Window startMonth = input(title="Start Month Backtest", type=input.integer,defval=1) startYear = input(title="Start Year Backtest", type=input.integer, defval=2018) endMonth = input(title="End Month Backtest", type=input.integer, defval = 12) endYear = input(title="End Year Backtest", type=input.integer, defval=2021) //----- Position Size usePosSize = input(title="Use Position Sizing?", type=input.bool, defval=true) riskPerc = input(title="Risk %", type=input.float, defval=1, step=0.25) //----- Stop Loss atrLen = input(title="ATR Length", type=input.integer, defval=20) stopLossMulti = input(title="Stop Loss Multiple", type=input.float, defval=2) // 2. Calculate strategy values //----- RSI based RSIEntry = rsi(close,RSIEntryLen) RSIExit = rsi(close,RSIExitLen) //----- SMA slowMA = sma(close,slowMALen) midMA = sma(close,midMALen) fastMA = sma(close,fastMALen) //----- ATR atrValue = atr(atrLen) //----- Sideways Detection = dmi(DiLen,ADXSmoothLen) is_sideways = adx <= ADXThreshold //----- Position Size riskEquity = (riskPerc / 100) * strategy.equity atrCurrency = (atrValue * syminfo.pointvalue) posSize = usePosSize ? floor(riskEquity / atrCurrency) : 1 //----- Trade Window tradeWindow = time >= timestamp(startYear,startMonth,1,0,0) and time <= timestamp(endYear,endMonth,1,0,0) // 3. Determine long trading conditions //----- Entry enterPB = (close > slowMA) and (RSIEntry < RSIEntryThreshold) and tradeWindow and is_sideways enterTF = crossover(fastMA,midMA) and (fastMA > midMA) and tradeWindow and not is_sideways and (strategy.position_size < 1) //----- Bar Count opened_order = strategy.position_size != strategy.position_size and strategy.position_size != 0 bars = barssince(opened_order) + 1 //----- Stop Loss (CANCELLED) // stopLoss = 0.0 // stopLoss := enterTF ? close - (atrValue * stopLossMulti) : stopLoss //----- Exit exitPB = RSIExit >= RSIExitThreshold or bars >= 10 exitTF = crossunder(fastMA,midMA) // 4. Output strategy data plot(series=slowMA, color=color.purple, title="SMA 200", linewidth=2) plot(series=midMA, color=color.navy, title="SMA 50", linewidth=2) plot(series=fastMA, color=color.orange, title="SMA 20", linewidth=2) bgcolor(is_sideways ? color.green : color.red) // Green is sideways trending market region and red is all others. // 5. Submit entry orders if(enterPB) strategy.entry(id="ENTRY-PB", long=true, qty=posSize, limit = open*0.98) //labelText1 = tostring(round(RSIEntry * 100)/100) //RSIlabel1 = label.new(x=bar_index,y=na, text=labelText1, yloc=yloc.belowbar,color=color.green, textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_up, size=size.normal) if(enterTF) strategy.entry(id="ENTRY-TF",long=true, qty=posSize) // 6. Submit exit orders if(exitPB) strategy.close("ENTRY-PB", when = exitPB, qty_percent = 100, comment = "EXIT-PB") if(exitTF) strategy.close("ENTRY-TF", when = exitTF, qty_percent = 100, comment = "EXIT-TF") strategy.close_all(when=not tradeWindow) // END ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IDX:ANTM
by m4cth0r
3
TEL - New Highs Incoming?TEL indicating a potential breakout of ascending triangle and break above linear regression mean after finding support at -2 standard deviation level. *Confirmation of this breakout still needed to increase confidence of a run higher* Analysis: Multiple bullish indicators suggesting high potential for break above linear regression mean to make new highs. My bias is bullish due to the setup of the following. RSI RSI currently sitting at 59 with potential to break above 61 (an area I identify as corresponding with breakouts of resistance levels). ADX/DI Bullish directional index cross completed MACD MACD completed bullish cross. After a short accumulation period in the $126 - $132 range, TEL appears to have broken out of this channel with intentions of making higher highs though confirmation is needed for this move. Confirmation Would like to see a daily close with a bullish impulsive candle breaking above the linear regression mean as well as $136. This movement in price action would likely be supported by RSI moving above 61 into the red zone on my Fib RSI indicator. TEL has a very highly correlated linear regression trend and a move above the mean into this range could be very fruitful, though I have set T1 at approx $153 for a potential profit of 14% on trade. A trade taken from last candle close to T1 utilizing a S/L at $129 (approx 4% below current level) gives a R/R of 3.47 Low risk, good odds. -Spreck
NYSE:TELLong
by spreck
1
PLUG Mean ReversionExtremely oversold. While its fundamentals might still point that it is overvalued, its technicals are looking strong for either a strong move back up as shorts take profits and people buy back in now that it is at a key support level and has shown resistance towards a further down move. High Probability, but risky due to its high volatility. Trade Ideas: Shares : Long between 33-42 for 50, 55+. Short Put : 25 Strike expiring 4/16 for $0.72 credit. 83% POP and very cheap at $250 BPE for a solid 28% ROC.
NASDAQ:PLUGLong
by punitarani
AAPL High Conviction ReversalApple is at key trendline and 200SMA support right now. It is one of the more oversold tech players and will likely reverse back to its mean. Trade Ideas: Shares : Long around 117.5 for 125 and 130+. 5-10% Swing. Covered Call : 131.25 expiring 4/16 for $1.5 credit. 17.5% assignment probability and a 12% covered return. Credit Put Spread : 110-111.25 strikes expiring 4/16 for $0.33. 64% POP and max loss of $92. Short Put : 100 expiring 4/16 for $1 credit. 92% POP and $1000 BPE for a 10% max ROC. Strangle : 100-140 expiring 4/16 for $1.65 credit. 80% POP. $1170 BPE for a 14% max ROC
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by punitarani
2