Meta
META First Buy signal in a month.We have been issuing strong buy signals on Meta Platforms (META) since November last year. A perfect example was our February 02 (see chart below) analysis that came with a huge final bullish warning while the price was still at $189.00:
Following the recent -15% pull-back, the strongest correction basically since the November 03 2022 market bottom, the stock price is flashing again the first buy signal on the medium-term as it is testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Resistance after a rebound near the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which has been intact since January 10.
On top of that, the 1D MACD is on course to form the first Bullish Cross below 0.0, since November 09 2022, which was essentially the bottom of the Bear Cycle. As long as the 1D MA100 is intact, we will buy the 1D MA50 (candle) closing and target 326.25 (Resistance 1). If it closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA100 instead, we will wait and add a 2nd buy position at 260.00, near the Higher Lows trend-line and keep it as long as the 1D MA200. The target for that position will be even higher, as it will be a long-term buy signal, aiming at the All Time High of 384.50.
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$META -Dangeours Place to Buy(30mins) - A buyers must take note that NASDAQ:META is at a very high risk place to be purchased !
Not only has a strong down-trend taken place, but there is plenty of room to the downside.
(-20% negative draw-down from here if price hits the green support trendline)
Despite today's bounce at a key-level and breaking the first trendline resistance on red,
it is currently trading just below 297.85$ key level mark after bouncing at 276.8$.
Even Breaking 297.85$ KL,
resistance marked on red rectangle @293$ welcomes the price to be slapped by it from
Sellers.
TRADE SAFE
*** Note that this is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor
before partaking on any Trading Activity based Solely on this Idea.
✏️ $GOLD : New Week's Prediction of the Price (READ THE CAPTION)NEW Forecast of TVC:GOLD : By reviewing the gold in the 4 -hour frame time, we see The price finally reached the bearish Target! The price came up with a demand pressure after reaching the demand zone that shown on the chart and has been able to grow up to $ 1916! But be careful that the price stabilization below $ 1919 to $ 1916 can make the price fall even more , And maybe this week we can see the Targets below $ 1900! Note that today we don't have specific news in the market!
Don't Forghet To Push The Boost (Like) Button and Follow Me for more !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
𝗡𝗮𝘀𝗱𝗮𝗾 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $QQQ Daily. First real pullbackFirst real pullback in progress flagged by bearish divergence with RSI in July/August. Where does this end? Even the “crash callers” are looking for a bounce so maybe a little more to go before a B wave starts 🌊
$NQ_F TVC:NDQ NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:SOX $ES_F AMEX:SPY SP:SPX TVC:DXY NASDAQ:TLT TVC:TNX CBOE:VIX #Stocks 📉
Palantir - Fear Worshippers of The All Seeing EyeI have to say that Palantir is a really difficult chart to read. On the one hand, looking at monthly bars, it's the kind of pattern which indicates new highs are in store.
Weekly bars are about the same. Nothing about this says you can short.
And its only that there's some divergences on the daily. But those divergences are really meaningful.
However, at the same time, although it's up some 220%+ from the bottom, the bottom did take out the IPO low, which is not bullish.
And these high prices are coming at a time when the Nasdaq and the SPX may very well have topped, which I address in my latest call:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
Palantir is a company that is ostensibly a key component of the panopticon surveillance network that underlines the International Rules Based Order's version of the Chinese Communist Party's social credit system.
At least, this is what rightists would tell you. If you asked the people behind the West's implementation of social credit, they would say they just seek to advance an enlightened society while keeping stability and security under control, and big data collection is crucial to that.
Well, if you ask CCP members, they would tell you the same thing, just coated in Marxist jargon.
And therein lies the problem. Mankind needs to return to its 5,000 year old traditions, which were reared and established over China's long dynasties, instead of trying to go Big Atheism and reinvent The Wheel.
Regardless of if Palantir at its current $37 billion valuation is a part of the future or a part of the past and gone with the wind, the last three months of trading have been totally one directional.
Which makes wanting to get short very deadly.
However, conditions for a short setup that is at least a scalp were formed with the July high on the 19th.
The reason for this is that price swept a key level and was met with a stiff rejection, taking a pivot.
All on its own, in the stock market with the way it just likes to go uppy or grind sideways, this makes shorting or puts hard, still.
But what we saw is daily candles double bottom at precisely $16.00, with Friday's trading session being yet another big green gainer on the back of such a bottom.
And so, as Buffet said, one should be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy only when others are fearful.
So the trade is to short somewhere between where we closed on Friday and over $18.
When another dump occurs, where it dumps to will tell us everything about the future.
If Palantir is truly bullish to more upside, it will preserve the June low at $13.56.
If it's really bullish, it should even preserve the July low at $14.62
If it's bullish, but is going to take until 2024 to go higher, we can expect prices under $12.
If it's bearish, prices under $11 are the target, with an all time low on deck and about to hit everyone on the face.
Which do I think is the most likely? Frankly, probably a dump under $15 and a new high in August.
There's no other way to put it or look at it at the moment.
For things to be different, you'd need something like a banking crisis to intervene in the markets, a prospect I undertake here:
Charles Schwab - The Harbinger Of The Next Crisis?
I believe that, all things considered, the risk side of the trade right now is people who are longing this top, regarding it as a dip to buy, expecting more highs.
Because people have capitulated, become greedy, and have taken their eyes off the clock.
You should remember that you're just standing in an equities bear market rally while central banks have their key rates pinned over 5% and no intention to cut.
This is bad news for stocks, and yet people are being told indexes are set to make a new all time high.
Repricing to the downside can come violently, aggressively, be gappy, and will give those on the wrong side of the trade no chance to get out.
Be very careful.
META Reversal Incoming (1D)META Daily
Price Chart
META has been in a relatively straight uptrend since bottoming out in November of 2022 but has recently just touched a level of high resistance with increased selling volume. This rally has come with the three gaps theory (Highlighted White) beginning with the breakaway gap in February 2022 and ending with the exhaustion gap back in July; both verified with increased volume. Following this theory the first sign of a reversal is the exhaustion gap being filled, which has just happened, however it's not a definitive sign. This is accompanied by another small break in the major trend line (Yellow Solid) and the first close below the 26-day EMA on 8/11 since the rally started. The EMA's are beginning to curve down (12-day) or flatten out (26-day and 50-day), so if we do get a 26-day / 50-day cross the targets below (Light Green Boxes) will cine into play.
Relative Strength Indicator
Most notably on the RSI is the recent bearish divergence (Aqua Solid), but this also occurred in the months prior and did not break down, why? Price action never broke below even the 12-day EMA and the RSI's second peak was above the 70 level while remaining elevated afterwards (Highlighted Aqua) indicating the strength of the trend; the higher the RSI the stronger the trend. The most recent bearish divergence saw the second peak of the RSI top out just below the 70 line and move lower to touch the 50 line; so do we break down? A bounce is definitely possible, which would also most likely push the price action to form a head and shoulders here, however this is the longest time in the history of META that RSI has remained above the 50; After checking, the only time it comes close is when multiple spikes below the 50 are present. The argument here is for a break below the 50 and strengthening the chance of a change in direction.
On Balance Volume
OBV has been in a upwards channel since March and has offset the prior bearish RSI divergence with using it's peak as support (Aqua Solid), which has just occurred again in the past several days. These small support levels also accompany a new a high made back in July, but has since fallen below it. If it does push higher it's technically in a "price discovery" environment, but with the factors above taken into consideration a signal of a reversal should be imminent; target supports (Light Green Boxes) are outlined below if this happens.
TDLR;
Why read the book when you can Google the sparknotes amirite? Seems Legit. Anyway, price action has completed a third gap (exhaustion) and has pushed lower to fill it (not a reversal conformation). EMA's are beginning to curve down or even out and the price has it's first close below the 26-day (on 8/11) since the rally began in Feb 2022. RSI has formed a another bearish divergence after previously failing to abide by the laws of bearish divergence; we swear it's going to work this time. It's also notable that this is longest length of time that the RSI has remained above the 50 level; like, not even a spike down, deng. OBV on the other hand is chugging along in it's channel like nothing is wrong using previous peaks as supports and has even made a new high.
What Seems Legit?
A reversal soon, if not from the most recent bearish divergence then possibly from a head and shoulders pattern. Basically looking for everything to break down at the same time, but a small is possible since the indicators are a bit mixed. The price is wrong Bob, come on down.
Chart Key
Yellow Solid = Major Trend Line
Red Solid = Major Support or Resistance
Aqua Solid = Divergences
Red Box = Resistance
Green Boxes = Supports / Target Areas
White Highlighter = Gaps
Aqua Highlighter = RSI divergence post peak comparison
META: Navigating the Path to a Trillion-Dollar ValuationCrossing the elusive trillion-dollar valuation threshold is no small feat. As it stands, only a handful of corporations globally have achieved this remarkable milestone. The anticipation surrounding which companies might ascend to join this prestigious club adds an extra layer of intrigue to the financial landscape. Among the contenders vying for a spot are familiar names: Berkshire Hathaway, Tesla, and Meta Platforms (formerly known as Facebook). With valuations ranging from $760 to $780 billion, these players are in the spotlight, each carrying its unique narrative.
In this exclusive race, I am resolutely bullish on Meta Platforms as a prime candidate to breach the trillion-dollar mark. While the company has grappled with its share of challenges, a calculated strategic shift and resilience in its core operations position it as an appealing investment opportunity. However, the question persists: should investors seize the moment and dive into Meta's stock? Let's embark on a closer examination.
Meta Platforms, undergoing a transformation from Facebook, occupies a distinctive niche in the market. A pivotal move in late 2021 saw the company rebrand as Meta, signaling a resolute pivot towards the metaverse. This strategic shift translated to hefty investments in its Reality Labs division. Yet, these endeavors have encountered turbulence. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, Reality Labs has generated a substantial $3.65 billion in sales. Unfortunately, this has been overshadowed by staggering operating losses amounting to an eye-watering $18.14 billion.
This concerning operating profit margin raises valid concerns, especially in light of the absence of evident signs of recovery. The most recent data reveals that second-quarter revenue in 2022 amounted to a modest $276 million, marking a notable low over recent years.
On a brighter note, the heart of Meta's revenue engine operates like clockwork. The Family of Apps division, encompassing Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp, and the emerging Threads, thrives on advertising revenue. In the second quarter, this segment exhibited a robust 12% year-over-year growth, surging to a substantial $31.7 billion. Notably, it achieved an operating profit of $11.2 billion, effectively mitigating the challenges faced by the beleaguered Reality Labs division.
So, how does Meta Platforms align itself to reach a trillion-dollar valuation? CEO Mark Zuckerberg has laid his cards on the table, spotlighting 2023 as the "Year of Efficiency" for Meta Platforms. This vision manifests in streamlined workforce strategies and resource reallocation from lower-priority initiatives. The results are palpable, reflected in Meta's improving operating margin across recent quarters. This impressive upward trajectory marks a resounding rebound from the depths of the fourth quarter of 2022.
Meta's meticulous focus on operational efficiency proves to be a catalyst in driving profitability, thereby propelling it towards the coveted trillion-dollar mark. Over the past five years, Meta has maintained an average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 25. This figure serves as the foundation for our baseline valuation as Meta approaches the trillion-dollar milestone. As depicted in the chart below, the company's current positioning significantly surpasses this threshold. However, forward earnings projections, based on analyst consensus, hover just below this mark. This intriguing dynamic suggests Meta retains ample room for multiple expansions in the upcoming year, indicating potential for a significant valuation increase as operational efficiency drives improved financial performance.
Looking ahead to 2024, Wall Street analysts hold a consensus projection of $15.25 in earnings per share (EPS) for Meta. Presently, the company trades at a valuation roughly equivalent to 20 times the anticipated 2024 earnings. Should Meta realize the projected EPS of $15.25 and close the year with a valuation of 25 times earnings, this scenario points to a promising 25% surge from the present stock price.
Applying this projection to Meta's current market capitalization yields an estimated valuation of $981 billion by the end of 2024. While it might not yet breach the trillion-dollar mark, this projection creates a solid foundation for Meta to confidently surpass that milestone by 2025.
Moreover, with a projected 25% upside from the present until the conclusion of 2024, Meta emerges as a compelling prospect. Consider also the potential for Meta to exceed earnings expectations or command a higher valuation multiple. In these scenarios, Meta could feasibly achieve a trillion-dollar valuation as early as 2024. This underscores the allure of investing in Meta, driven by both projected growth and the possibility of positive surprises on the horizon. As Meta navigates its path forward, the prospects are tantalizing, inviting investors to join the journey towards a trillion-dollar valuation.