MOASS: WC: 26.59 Target: 1800-2400 MOASS: 47k-100KTLDR:
-Technical Analysis works
-Trading on hoping and holding will most likely cause you to lose a lot of money
-Reddit/Social Media and the whole "TA doesnt work on GME" is a problem for the GME community and most of the of people who think like that are not going to make near what they could if they actually understood TA
-Nothing special about the 28 level other than it coincides with the VWAP off the April runup
-MOASS has been ongoing since 2020 and never stopped
-WE CARE AND WANT YOU TO BE SUCCESSFUL
-THE GME STORY AND COMMUNITY IS SPECIAL
Moass
MOASS: WC: 24.88 Target: 1800-2400 MOASS: 47k-100KTLDR
-Margin Call
-VWAPS used to control risk
-VWAP Bands measure standard deviations from the VWAP
-Pushing thru the bands takes volume and momentum
-Fibs are targets
-Fib pairs act as support and resistance
-Smaller MOASS box and corresponding fib extensions show really good targets that traders can use to protect their investment
-Sentiment drives price and we don't care about fundamentals
Note: WC in title = weekly close.
MOASS: BOOM!TLDR of video:
-MOASS is happening now
-Elliott Wave Idealized Target: 100K
-Ideal Target for your average retail investor: 1800 - 2400
-Psychologically, Wave 3, which we are in, is the most intense
-VWAP is your guide as price will stay above identified VWAP and will only touch it again once
MOASS is over
-Fibs are your guide as well
Expect price to begin running next week folks
We will break above identified VWAPS and that will be the surefire signal that MOASS has lifted off for the last time
SEE YOU AT THE TOP!!!
MOASS: Fuse LitTLDR of the video:
-Price has likely bottomed
-Short Volume is increasing as predicted
-Price should rocket through VWAPS
-Next significant price levels: 22, 25, 28, 40
-Price should be in full squeeze mode once we get above 28 and definitely 40
-Manage your positions by watching short volume and price reactions to VWAP
M O A S S
MBLY SHORT SQUEEZE INBOUND!!! NASDAQ:MBLY
SHORTS ARE COOKED ON 🩳🍋
We finally closed over the 50MA, extremely BULLISH!
There is a massive short float on this stock that's making higher highs. #MOASS #SHORTSQUEEZE INBOUND!!!
My 1st price target for this daily chart is...🥁🥁🥁
🎯$14.80
Not financial advice. 🖖
MOASS: Match LightingOk lets recap our main targets and ideas for MOASS:
Target Price: 1800-2400 w/ major potential for pockets of trades to execute at much higher
levels
Duration: Oct 2024 - July 2025 w/ a major move to new all time highs taking place between Oct and Feb
Key Date: Oct 21st 2024 should see volume and short volume begin to increase
VWAPs are the key and price will be supported by VWAP all the way to MOASS conclusion
What now?
The main data point that we are watching like a hawk is SHORT VOLUME
Increasing short volume is the MAIN indicator that will signal both the START and END of MOASS
When you see short volume RAPIDLY INCREASING during MOASS it means that they have lost control of price and are desperately trying to short it down
You will see that DECREASING short volume will always signal a current or imminent decrease in buying pressure..although because of the nature of a squeeze that may not always translate into a decline in price
So now we wait....
M O A S S
MOASS: How Will We Know Its OverSo far in our coverage of GME we have told you how high we think price will go during MOASS and also what technical triggers we think will lead to take off
We have also told you, from a timing perspective, when we think MOASS will kick into high gear (Oct 21st)
What we havent told you is how to know when MOASS is over
The short answer is: A break below VWAP
As we told you last week VWAP is a key data point that Institutions/Hedge Funds use to identify ideal entries/exits
Its also a key data point used to define acceptable risk (i.e. XYZ standard deviations from VWAP things break)
Like the Jan 21 squeeze this one will most likely be triggered by a Short Squeeze/ Gamma Ramp which will lead to forced buy-ins and extreme delta hedging
In a Short Squeeze/ Gamma Ramp environment VWAP is THE MOST IMPORTANT DATA POINT TO SHORTS
As long as price is ABOVE VWAP its not advantageous for them to close their positions...
And that is why your trigger to know that MOASS may be winding down is that first dip BELOW VWAP after price explodes
M O A S S
MOASS- Oct 21st...BOOM!We thought we would use this weeks post to highlight exactly what key triggers we think will signal lift off
Its widely known that VWAP levels are a key data point in almost all institutional algo trading systems
VWAP is important because it helps the algos identify optimal levels to enter/exit positions and define risk
The movie Margin Call does a good job of demonstrating how VWAP is used by firms
The Models they reference in the movie are using VWAP and Standard Deviations of price from VWAP to define acceptable risk...specifically margin and liquidity requirements
Price breaking too many standard deviations from VWAP is what caused the music to stop..its how they lost control of their shorts and derivative positions
Based on those researchable and verifiable facts, the defined VWAPS on the chart should be trigger levels for SWAPS/ Short positions
Case in point if you do the math, the 2022 swap agreements were entered into at a price of approx 37.92
Assuming that those positions were setup to be profitable if GME declined in price, the SWAP/Short holders need to ensure that they dont let price break and sustain above that level
And what does the chart show? Since 2022 price has spent significantly more time UNDER 37.92 than over it
EVERY time price has broken over that level it is immediately shorted down
Conversely notice that VWAP since the 2021 squeeze high is at essentially the same price as the 2022 Swaps...WE DO NOT THINK THAT IS COICIDENCE
Ok great so we rocket ship once price breaks 37.92/VWAP since squeeze high...when is that going to happen Heartbeat Trading?
Short Answer: Oct 21st
From an Elliott Wave time perspective the 0.618 and 1 fib tend to be when price starts to get volatile and volume begins to flow in
When price is in a bullish price structure that usually results in significant movement higher in the direction of the prevailing trend
Since this is a short squeeze play we also anticipate seeing an exponential increase in Short Volume beginning Oct 21st
So now you know the main things we are watching and when we really anticipate price to run
M O A S S
MOASS: October= Light FuseWe are continuing our call that MOASS is imminently on the horizon
Note the 0.618 and the 1 fib on the time axis of the chart
From a fib time perspective between those levels you tend to see explosive volatility ending in positive movement in the direction of the prevailing trend
We are predicting near term strength in the broad market as well which should help push GME along
We also think that by the end of the year the broad market will begin a massive trek lower which will put significant pressure on margin levels
This coupled with the fact that per recent reports Banks are carrying the largest levels EVER of unrealized losses on securities, should be the core ingredients that fuel shorts unwinding and MOASS commencing
Thats our story and we are sticking to it lol
Good Trading To All!
M O A S S
MOASSTLDR: MOASS is about to kick into high gear and Elliott Wave has given us some solid targets from a price and time perspective
MOASS Target Price: $1800-$2400..with potential for us to see pockets of trades fill at even higher levels (remember if price overshoots a target we just look to the next fib)
Timeframe to complete: End of Jan 2025 (pay attention to the fibs on the time axis)
It is time
Our patience is about to be rewarded
Friday saw, what we think is the fuse lighting (hint hint) for what we will look back later and call: MOASS
We have been pounding the table saying that GME is bullish
Elliott Wave Theory has done a great job tracking general price movements
Again, if you are judging Elliott Wave Theorys efficacy by its exactness then you have the wrong expectation
As we have explained many times Elliott Wave gives you IDEALIZED targets but price can and will overshoot/undershoot those targets...and we expect that to happen
Which is why we say EVERY FIB that we show on the chart is important because when overshoots/undershoots happen we just look to the next Fib as our target...and we do this until the price structure changes and invalidates our count
Thats why we constantly talk about PRICE STRUCTURE
Ultimately, price structure, too us, means is the overall structure Bullish (impulsive) or Bearish (corrective)
So with that said this chart lays out exactly how high we think this gets and also how long it might take
Pay close attention to EVERY FIB on the PRICE and the TIME axis...we expect price to react significantly to every one
Oh for the last time...for those that think price could never reach the prices we project ( aka at those prices GME would be XXXXXXXXXXXX Market cap blah blah) we are NOT saying that price will be SUSTAINED at those levels...we are saying price will TEMPORARILY reach those levels..
Remember we are calling targets for a SHORT SQUEEZE here..not a FUNDAMENTAL price target
M O A S S
Apes Watch a Slow Motion Train Crash for Years to ComeI already am eating from the trash can all the time.
The name of this trash can is ideology.
The material force of ideology makes me not see what I am effectively eating.
This one is not going to be good for your mental health.
AMC just purchased a Gold Mining Company? truth really is stranger than fiction
THE BIG LEBOWSKIHere is a bullish play on a name you've probably never heard of unless you love bowling lol. I love bowling. Bowlero Inc is the next MOASS that could put GME/AMC to shame.
Quick stats:
Short Percentage of the Float: 90.4%
Short Interest Ratio/Days to Cover: 11.2
Average Trading Volume (3m): 1,270,749 (High liquidity)
Cost to Borrow: 17%
Chart Analysis and Forecast:
- love this setup, nice momentum that will generate a squeeze (actually just started today)
- Fractal re-accumulation pattern with nearly identical setup as the accumulation pattern that it initially broke out of a few months back
** Initial Target = 17.50 by early-mid April 2024
**** Goal Target = 19-21 by mid May 2024 (up to 50% near-term upside from current price)
Those targets are being conservative, if it breaks above 21 it will go APE.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bullish play (not financial advice):
Load the boat with shares, Apr 19 15.00 calls, and May 17.50 calls.
Join the squeeze, its just beginning.
ETH/AMC chart to follow MOASS/ SqueezeNotice when ETH/ AMC correlation corrects, AMC runs. Currently, RSI, Macd, and price is double topping on Eth/AMC. Again, this is ETH compared to AMC price. not prices overlapping two charts. A run for AMC is due on the charts, but only until we break patter/ trend line will a massive squeeze start.
Disney - Is Your Compass Upside Down?On trading social media, Disney has been the target of moonboys for quite a while.
For some reason, whenever a stock is in a landslide and doesn't go up, everyone gets it in their head that they're going to BUY THE CALLS and catch the next MOTHER OF ALL SHORT SQUEEZES.
And this is because you want to gamble on a single day candle, which results in you blowing your account, and then you stop using TradingView and can't have fun anymore.
Disney, fundamentally, is a company that may not have any future whatsoever in a society that returns to mankind's traditions.
For so many years, it has been pushing a warped and depraved culture at both its parks and via its broadcasting networks. It was even an entertainment industry leader in onboarding the Chinese Communist Party's Zero-COVID social credit edicts.
And this is a problem if you want to get long.
They always say "zoom out," and so let's look at yearly candles:
8 months of price action for 2023 so far indicates that we've probably just been painting the wick portion of a year that will break the 2020 COVID low.
And the first place you find support below the COVID low is at $40.
"Sure, sure. But it's Disney. It's the stock market. EVERYONE KNOWS it's going up. Bears always get #rekt LOL."
"Bear flags" and "bull flags" are astrology and don't exist. But what does exist is when an equity spends more than a year in an area it should have bounced from and simply doesn't go up, which is what we see on the monthly.
But the contrary, on the Weekly, there is a problem for bears, which is the August of '22 high at $126.
And so there is a potential that tomorrow's earnings call actually results in a raid to $80 that actually produces a bullish buying opportunity with a target of $126.
The problem is, the "JPM Collar" has the world's most significant bank long on SPX 4,200 puts that expire September 29 that have literally been under water every second of every day since they were bought at the end of Q2.
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
However, I note in my recent SPX call:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
And a recent Nasdaq call
Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip?
With CPI pending on Thursday morning, what happens tomorrow is really significant.
That although I suspect our index tops to get raided, the problem is, are you going to see $40+ on Disney in a time frame of less than 3 weeks?
September is likely to be something of a "chilly autumn" for equities markets with the way everything is set up, including the SOXS bear semiconductor ETF and the VIX.
If there's to be anymore rally, that rally may only come in Q4.
And thus, that would mean for Disney that a likely scenario would be a raid on the lows from earnings and even more bearish consolidation, with the $126 target being left for the beginning of Q4.
This stock is a lot like Verizon and T-Mobile. It's better left not bothered with until it starts to show you signs that a bank or a fund really wants to rip it bigly in one direction or the other.
There's lower hanging fruit and greener pastures out there to trade.
Target - Why Is Everyone Desperate To Long Disasters?Target is another example of the so-called "contrarian" trade that circulates on financial social media where, somehow, everyone puts on their VERY SMART PERSON baseball caps and gets long because it MUST BE TIME FOR THE MOTHER OF ALL SHORT SQUEEEEEEEEEEEZES.
And yet time and time again it never works.
Paypal is a really fine example.
Paypal - Going Long In a Bear Market?
I mean cool, if you bought at $59 in May (you didn't) and sold at $77 on the last two days of July (you didn't) then you made $18 a share and are a VERY SMART PERSON.
And then it gave it all back in a day on earnings and people are killing themselves buying the dips again.
Same with T-Mobile, Verizon, and Disney
Disney - Is Your Compass Upside Down?
It's at long time lows. Went up a bit on earnings. And then gave it all back over the span of a few days and people are still "buying teh dip," primarily because some Signal or Discord or picture of a girl on Musk's new Xeeeeeeeter app said "muchwow prize target nao $120 be a winner like me and BUY CALLS."
These are things that you need to stop doing. When something trades like a bag of doorknobs for a long period of time it's because it really is a piece of crap that will eventually go lower, and so instead of buying that dip, sell that rip.
Better yet, ignore this kind of junk and trade what is actually trending, the indexes, or just go outside for a month or two and come back when the chop is over and save your trouble.
Look at the monthly bars on Target. "Zoom out," they always say.
I understand this because in the first two months I wanted to go long on this thing for at least a retrace to $150 too.
But instead the old "support" has become new "resistance."
And this tells you that new lows are most likely coming.
And when Target flirts again with $100 people will go even more bigly long.
The longs trapped from $125 and $130 will double their position.
But this piece of crap probably won't bounce.
Have you actually been on their website and looked at the clothes they sell? Look at stuff like women's intimates (lol). Do you know they have an isle in the stores devoted to fleshlights?
Do you know that they allow people to steal?
That, my friends, is real "fundamental analysis". What's the bull case? That someone told you the EllLioT WaVeS SaId $160 MiniMum?
This is a chain that was bounced out of Canada because it was Zellers 2.0.
These markets, all the equities, all the commodities, the entire world is in for a rough future. The rough future might only last for a few months, but it might last for a few years.
If you don't "paradigm shift" ahead of schedule, by the time you do get your paradigm shifted forcefully, it will be too late for crying.
And so my only wish with these things is to wake you up. China is the world's central stage and what's going on with Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party, and its 24-year persecution against Falun Dafa is the fundamental story that everything else is a slave to.
Time to wake up, my friends.
Walmart - Congratulations. We Now Have "Confirmation."Walmart is another stock that, for some reason, people want to be bullish on. It's probably because Marxist social marketing platform Reddit's public relations firm nestegg r/WallStreetBets said so, or some GPT instance on StockTwits said so.
Yet it's another old company with an old business model that is anything but good. I haven't been to a Walmart in the United States in years, but the ones in Canada aren't even cheap.
They attract people from low social classes and people who moved here from other countries, but are seriously often one of the most expensive options out there and even shopping online are an automatic skip.
Yet people want to get long.
This stock is similar to Target
Target - Why Is Everyone Desperate To Long Disasters?
And Disney
Disney - Is Your Compass Upside Down?
And Paypal
Paypal - Going Long In a Bear Market?
In that none of them are one bit bullish, and yet people are rallied by a certain force into believing that it's time to BUY THEM CALLS because it's GOING TO SQUEEZE or something.
And yet when stuff like Apple or Meta trends upwards for 5-8 straight months you're told to short every pop while it runs away on you.
China's economic problems are seriously escalating and at a frightening speed. The effort is underway to destabilize the Chinese Communist Party, so long as Xi Jinping is its leader and the President of China, at least.
The ultimate endgame is to produce a situation where the CCP and/or Xi falls, but what the International Rules Based Order and its banking cartel want is not to have China's 5,000 years of dynasties and traditions return, but to replace the existing regime with something of a submissive soyregime that's nested out of Taiwan.
And because of this, retail stores are particularly at risk because everyone just loves and loves to put their hands and get their hands in Shanghai where the Jiang Zemin faction is.
When the day comes, the CCP will be gone and the Jiang faction and the CCP's 24-year persecution against Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual cultivators and all that organ harvesting will become an international story, the only one that matters.
And these companies who have been supplying blood to "China" all these years will really wind up going Blockbuster and delisting.
Walmart's monthly shows us that we have a raid on the '22 all time high. The purpose of these kinds of events is to take out the funds and whales who use stop loss rules.
And if it's really true that Walmart isn't aiming for $180, then it means the next set of rules-based funds and whales to hunt is on the low side, which is a painful $50 away.
On the weekly, this ramp towards the top has been an amusing 52 degrees.
Trendlines are created to be broken because you're told that technical analysis and not price action is somehow important.
The reverse bullish upside down inverse bat pattern harmonic RSI MACD divergence clouds are definitely the way to understand the market, not the places where people are told to put their stops to "mAnAGe ThEiR RiSk."
And so the moons have come together on today's earnings to tell us that it's probably time to sell the rip.
Walmart has produced:
1. A failure swing
2. The rejection came on Q2 earnings as a catalyst/news driver
3. Months and months of insider sales
4. At a time when indexes are toppy
5. Jackson Hole, the biggest Federal Reserve policy meeting of the year, is a week away
6. JP Morgan is long some 15,800 puts with a strike of SPX 4,225 expiring September 29 that have never been in the money since the quarter changed
And so the trade setup is simple.
Don't try to buy the dip. The dip can't be bought.
Instead sell a rip back to the $158 pivot
Buy long duration puts
Sit on your hands and go outside
Take a girl on a date
Listen to music and have wine with her
Tell her that her hair is pretty
Come back a few weeks later and roll them out
Rinse, repeat until $99
Good luck, my friends. It's time to stop listening to the Internet and social media machine. People with low follower counts and low traffic can tell you the truth, but the big dogs are promoted because the purpose is to use you as exit liquidity lol.
Gold - $2,000 Is a Death TrapThis is a follow up to my June 2 call for a new ATH on Gold, that will be bearish, instead of bullish:
Gold - When A New ATH Prints, Will You Get Trapped?
In the process of tracking this, price action did not meet expectations (in the sense that it has not traded low enough), and so I began to reconsider the overall topography of the market.
Also, right now, I have an open call on silver for $33:
Silver - 33 Moons
However, as price has not traded down the levels I regard as requisite to trigger a bull impulse, while I still believe that these high prices will manifest in the future, the market makers desire lower prices first.
One thing to note about gold is both the monthly and weekly bars are actually bearish despite price having formed a long-term triple top:
But in the shorter term (1H-4H-1D) candles, gold is clearly heading towards higher prices after bouncing exactly over $1,900.
As I've said before, one of the problems with a metals bull market right now is that Xi Jinping and the Chinese government (the Chinese Communist Party) have amassed a large amount of gold in recent months.
China's economy is doing extremely poorly following the decimation of the Party by Wuhan Pneumonia and the CCP faces threats on all sides, especially from the International Rules Based Order who now chatters about "de-risking" from China.
Since the United States tends to be the market maker of everything, this is trouble for China's central bank. Large stocks of gold and a heavily declining price will put the regime in a great deal of trouble, depleting the money it has available for buying people off.
And this is a huge geopolitical threat, for Xi Jinping has one Trump card to play: throw away the CCP in the middle of Beijing time, which is the U.S. night, and weaponize the 24-year-long persecution and genocide against Falun Dafa (Falun Gong) meditation, which was launched by Jiang Zemin and its band of toad cronies in Shanghai.
Another thing to note is since the pandemic crash, BUT BEFORE 2022, gold has had something of an inverse covariance with the SPX and the SPX has an inverse covariance with the USD.
But after 2022, gold has traded mostly in lockstep with the SPX, although in recent days and weeks that has begun to decouple.
Looking at the daily covariance, gold and the USD have an inverse covariance with the overextended equities market:
And I anticipate a USD rally, as I state here:
DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia
Since I believe what the market makers have in store for us is a significant downtrend in the equities market until September:
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
Gold setting a new high right now doesn't make sense.
And so what I believe will happen is the target for the algorithm right now is $2,030, and it amounts to a short squeeze/bull trap.
This will both take out the June high and draw in buyside demand over the $2,000 level, since retail goldbugs are always pining for a new all time high.
But the rally will fail, again, and the markets at large will fail again (except for Natural Gas).
Natural Gas - The Girl Who Hopes You Remember Her
And as the rally fails we'll see lower prices. Probably ending in the $1,800 range.
This amounts to a 10%~ drop and is pretty painful if you're sitting leveraged long and even worse if you're leveraged on call options.
If $1,800 is violated, then the top is probably already in, in my opinion.
So, be careful and make sure you practice social distancing from atheism, Marxist-Leninism, the Theory of Evolution, QAnon, and the CCP itself.
Long gold is about returning to tradition, and mankind's Heaven sent traditions are even more luminous than an entire vault of 100.00% pure AU.
VIX - The 72-Handle PreludeI will reiterate again, as I have in my past posts, notably:
Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal
That if you are bullish on US equities into the future and want to see a healthy economy into '24 and '25, you DO NOT want to see a new all time high to be set yet.
Instead, you want a correction.
A major correction is just that: a correction. A correction gives a number of elements an opportunity to rebalance and reload so that a new phase of markup, and thus profits for longs, can unfold.
The VIX controls a lot of things, namely the price of options. Really, what this means for most people is it controls the price of "protection," i.e. puts.
And since the VIX is now trading at a low not seen since June of '21 and in an area of accumulation that spanned 3 years between '18 and '20, if you think a new all time high on equities is coming, you're actually saying that VIX is going to trade to 5.
And you may very well be right. It's a very difficult situation.
However, net liquidity is coming out of the system, and the indexes and equities rallied from mid-June to mid-August of last year. The algorithm rarely runs the same pattern at the same time twice.
Moreover, there's a lot of problems brewing in this world with the War in Ukraine connected to Vladimir Putin and the situation in mainland China with Xi Jinping still at the helm of the notorious and unforgivable Chinese Communist Party.
There are handles a major arranged correction in the markets are not going to print on VIX.
1. VIX will not print GFC highs
2. VIX will not print the millennial-titled "Coronavirus Disease 2019" highs
3. VIX will not print 50-handles
Instead, VIX, in my opinion, will print a 72-handle.
One of the truths in the market place is the easiest and most consistent money is not only that the market goes up, but selling volatility after the dust on periodical propaganda has settled is free money.
A free money train always continues and you're never a part of it because you're trying to long MULN and Bed Bloodbath and Beyond for a MOASS.
So, let's take a look at the ETFs. There are some notable pieces of evidence in the price action that show something ought to change, and quickly.
The first is in the SVXY inverse VIX ETF, which has taken out the pre-COVID high, and by a lot.
LT short seller funds: they dead.
But a more notable case is that of the UVIX 2x leveraged bull ETF
It was 5:1 reverse split to start the year, had one bounce during the bank collapse hysteria, and then lost 80% of its value.
UVIX trades under $1 pre-split.
You're looking for a MOASS on shitcoins, but here's a real opportunity.
Notable is also that HUV, the Toronto Stock Exchange VIX (non-levered bull) ETF, is in a similar boat.
It 6:1 reverse split in February, had one bounce, and lost half its value, trading to barely over $3 pre-split.
You can care about Canada because there are arbitrage opportunities with the USDCAD currency pair and because our holidays and your holidays are not the same, like "Juneteenth," and so there is opportunity in manipulation.
What I can say is that there's an argument, if nothing else, to long volatility in extreme situations as a way of defending your long positions.
People are willing to allocate 40 percent of their portfolio to bonds that just don't go up when the market pumps and don't go up when the market goes down.
So why not hedge with volatility?
That being said, if Nasdaq goes to 9,000 points, are you really willing to hold your $400 NVDIA?
Humans never believe in what they don't see. They only believe after they've been shown, and then it's too late.
What I truly hope for everyone who has a kind heart is not only that you can preserve your money through the chaos and manipulation, but walk out of the machinations stronger, better, healthier, and with a bright future.
For this, and only this, is what you have waited for.
IWM Russel 2000 - No Love For Small CapsI hadn't really looked at IWM until a follower asked me about it on Twitter, and after thinking about it for a few hours and comparing it against SPY and QQQ, I realized that it's not that IWM is lagging, it's that it's not going to follow the recent mania.
Some wisdom I heard recently is that breadth is important in markets because it indicates a large amount of liquidity has entered or left, indicating the emergence of new bull and bear markets.
Unfortunately, with the exception of Friday alone, breadth has been terrible in this debt ceiling crisis pump, which means even though Nasdaq is flirting with 15,000 and SPX with 4,300, it's a bullish impulse within bearish macro conditions.
There's a lot of trouble on the horizon with the 2024 Presidential Election close enough that the game has to played and the trouble brewing in mainland China with the Communist Party being about to fall and the globalist bloc struggling to either cuckold or depose Xi Jinping.
What a bullish impulse in a bearish macro framework means for small caps is that although Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Tesla, Amazon, Apple might pump, liquidity is not going to be going "risk on" on small caps and zombie corporations.
Instead, prices will be driven lower because as they sell the cycle highs in the blue chips, they'll be bidding a portion of their profits with lowball asks on small caps for the purposes of pumping them, and then dumping them, on retail's head after interest in the big names has become exhausted.
Those very large lowball asks will lead the algorithms to drive price towards them because the algo is designed to generate volume.
But on small caps, unless the company has significantly exceptional fundamentals, your expectations on how high it can go and how long it can go for during a reversal will have to be quite reserved.
In other words, if you missed the July '20 to October '22 pump on IWM then you missed the train and it's never coming back.
It is what it is. Just accept it.
You can make a lot of money trading puts on this thing on the way down.
It just means that if it really does bounce around $125, your expectation for where it can bounce to shouldn't be a new ATH, but probably back to $170.
Again, you can make a lot of money trading calls from $125 to $170.
But if you want to bUy tEh bOtToM fOr thE mOaSS and think you're going to get a 50 bagger instead of a "tiny little" 5 bagger, you're going to blow your account.
And if that's who you are, it's probably better you blow your account and go back to working a real job and learn the value of money again.
So here's the trade.
This recent breakout looks like it's just a consolidation squeeze. It's going down. But it might screw around for a while and could be as annoying as trading over $200 again. It's really hard to say.
Areas you'd really like to short and/or buy puts are called $188 or $190.
You'll need 4-6 months or so to get to the $127 level.
But either way, the R/R on a $188 short with a $212 stop and a $130 target is almost 7 to 1.
Go do sports betting for a while and enlighten to how hard it is to hit a +700 if you don't think that's a worthwhile trade.
You need to quit wanting to get rich quick. Getting rich isn't important and it isn't even valuable. What you need is to wake up to what's important in life and what you're really here to do.
And that question is answered in mankind's traditions and that 5,000 year old culture sitting in Mainland China after the CCP is utterly annihilated.
S&P Market crash (spy)Will keep it short and sweet, Ive posted in the previous a parabolic curve break of SPY. Notice a harmonic patter forming after a failed retracement (Point C) of the .236. Until that breaks (can ultimately run to $460 and still perform this bearish outcome) Point D can bring SPY to $240. Also meeting the .886 Retracement.. to the dot.