Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 18 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - Initial Jobless Claims @ 13h30
News - Netflix Earnings
Directional bias - BUY
My trading journal didn't save all my detailed morning analysis text (#irritating) :(
So to repeat, short and sweet....
I kept my bias today as a BUY because I was of the opinion that market would retrace and test the neckline area of D market pattern.
Reason for this opinion:
1. Day DT Profit target reached (market pattern completed)
2. Seller's TP2 reached
3. The lime green thick line is a strong resistance level on the W TF and if price breaks this support, then we are in for another big drop as indicated by the purple arrow.
So I felt like price would retrace, all the way up to the sell fib levels.
I entered buy's twice, based on DB's forming and breaking necklines upwards + temporary downtrend lines broken.
Mental SL was placed at the thick pink lines.
On both occasions price moved more than 250 pips away from my entry and I was able to secure my trade at entry.
Got taken out twice at entry as price moved back down and then I lost faith that bulls could overpower the bears to at least force a deep retracement today.
So no pips for me today.
Hope you had a better day!
Catch ya tomorrow! :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Nasdaq100
NASDAQ - UniverseMetta - Analysis#NASDAQ - UniverseMetta - Analysis
Continuation of the trend, an ABC structure may form and allow the price to continue its momentum towards the level of 21000. In order not to increase the risks, it is better to consider the exit when fixing behind the lower trend line - the support level. When fixing, there may be a strong correction, then it will be necessary to understand the structure in order decisions. Globally, targets may be at the level of 21750.
Target 20415 - 21750
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 17 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my pre day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None for today - tomorrow is Netflix earnings
Directional bias - Starting to look Bearish?!
During analysis noted the following:
M - Still looking bullish, but long wick beginning to form. Wick is 4'330 pips at time of writing, body of the M candle is 5'900 pips
W - On the W TF you can see weakness in the candles. Last week's candle closed with a very long wick red doji candle. This week's candle is still forming but the weakness is evident, with price struggling to stay above the last 2 week's highest closing points - strong resistance forming on the W TF. The way that this week's candle will close will be very telling because price could just be stalling and then continue to move up (especially during earnings season), or this could be the beginning of a reversal.
D - The large red candle on the 11 July can be seen as a retracement. Price moved down to the W - 0.50 fib level and then moved up again. However, now one can see that a DT may be taking shape on the D TF. A potential neckline is visible and once price breaks below that point on the D TF (i.e. a D candle closes below the neckline), we may be in for a large move down because the profit target of the DT is +- 4'700 pips away. Yesterday's D candle closed as a hanging man candle.
Hanging man candle is a bearish reversal candle and indicates:
- sellers are beginning to outnumber the buyers
- the long bottom wick shows that sellers are pushing lower but the buyers could only push up near the candle open, meaning that there are not enough buyers left to provide the necessary momentum to keep price rising.
Today, in the early morning hours, we see more bears entering the market and pushing price down (at time of writing)
4H -
Trend line - a down trend is forming between B. and C. - two touches to a trend line forms the trend line. Three touches to a trend line, confirms the trend. So if you draw trend lines to wicks a trend has formed. If you draw trend lines to candle bodies (i.e. disregard the wicks and draw a trend line touching the thick part of the candle as per the yellow trend line) you will have three touches to the trend line. So I interpret this to mean that a strong temporary down trend is formed and confirmed.
Sell fibs - one can also see that the sell fibs are becoming stronger and the bulls are unable to break these zones, even after many attempts.
The 4H 0.618 sell fib kept price down on 3 attempts
The 4H 0.50 sell fib kept price down on FIVE attempts. Hence why bulls are losing momentum, they keep pushing up but bears are successfully keeping bulls down at lower and lower price levels.
S&R - yesterday price has been unable to break above and away the pivot point and today (at time of writing) the pivot point has already acted as a strong resistance (as indicated by the 2 x dice icons)
Buy fibs - buy fibs are unable to give price the momentum to move up and we can see that the D - 0.382 buy fib + D - 0.50 buy fib has been breached. This is telling because the D fib levels are strong (marked in blue).
So after this analysis, it seems my directional bias as a BUY is under threat.
I know that if I don't have my directional bias correct, then big losses are guaranteed.
I may wait today to see how the D candle closes in relation to the D market pattern that is forming (DT) and see if bears are strong enough to break the neckline down. Up until then we still have a W 0.382 buy fib level + D EMA that needs to be breached by bears and perhaps these levels are strong enough to call in more bulls.
As Trading View always says, there are three things you can do as a trader....buy, sell or wait. And I think today I might wait.
Have a great trading day!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NASDAQ THOUGHTS - 17-JUL-2024Hello all, Kindly see my NASDAQ thoughts for today. These videos are aimed at making you compare charts with mine if you are a price acton trader and use my thoughts to improve your skill. They are not meant as signals even if they seem like they are. I want you to learn and be great
🐲 The Roaring FAANG. Five Big Tech Stocks That Move The MarketFAANG is an acronym that stands for five major, highly successful U.S. tech companies: Meta (formerly Facebook), Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google.
FAANG stocks' performance has a substantial effect on the overall market and comprises 15% of the S&P500 Index SP:SPX .
If you follow the financial or business news, you may have seen or heard the term FAANG thrown around. No, it's not a misspelling or an animal's roar. It's an acronym that stands for five big companies — some might say the big companies — in the high-tech industry.
The FAANG quintet consists of Meta (formerly Facebook), Amazon , Apple, Netflix and Google (Alphabet as an official corporate name).
These corporations — all American, but with a global presence — are not only household names, they're financial behemoths. Their combined market capitalization is over $4 trillion. The blue-chip stocks of the tech sector, they collectively make up 15% of the Standard & Poor's 500 SP:SPX (an index of the largest public companies in the US). So they represent not only one of the US' most significant industries, but a sizable chunk of the US stock market itself.
The origins of FAANG
FAANG actually began as FANG. The origin of the acronym has been attributed to Jim Cramer, the financial TV host and co-founder of TheStreet.com. Known for his slangy abbreviations and catchy phrases, Cramer coined the term in 2013 to represent four tech stocks with outsized market appreciation. Cramer believed that these companies belonged together because they are all high-growth stocks that share the common threads of digitization and the web.
Cramer's original term was just FANG — it didn't initially include Apple. The company joined the ranks in 2017, reflecting the growth of internet services (iCloud, Apple Music, Apple Pay) to its revenues.
So the acronym became FAANG, and it's remained so.
The five stocks of FAANG
They need no introduction: The five stocks of FAANG are all familiar brands, whose products and services permeate our lives daily. They are also American corporate success stories — each has seen its stock shares experience triple-digit growth since 2015, and year-to-year as well.
👉 Meta ( NASDAQ:META ) is the social media maestro, owner of Instagram, WhatsApp, and its Facebook website. It has returned more than 190% over the past 12 months, and it is a # 1 over all S&P500 Index components with that amazing result.
👉 Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), the sole product manufacturer of the group, with more than 36% yearly performance.
👉 Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), the world's largest e-store, has returned more than 65% over the past 12 months.
👉 Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ), the superpower of streaming, has returned 44% TTM.
👉 Google — parent company Alphabet ( NASDAQ:GOOG , NASDAQ:GOOGL ) — has a name synonymous with internet searches and services. Its GOOG shares have increased by more than 43% in 12 months.
Just to put these numbers in context: the S&P 500 has grown 17% over the past 12 months. So FAANG stocks have been at the forefront , significantly outperforming the broad market.
Twelve months performance of FX:FAANG components vs S&P500 Index
The bottom line
The main technical graph (3-day chart for FX:FAANG stock basket, introduced by @FXCM provider, with 20% inception weight for every single component) illustrates perhaps right there happens the major breakout of 52-week highs, with further projected/ targeted upside price action.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 15 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
During analysis noted the following:
M - Month candle is still in formation but very bullish, but at time of writing, the wick is 3'500 pips and the body is 8'500 pips. So still a very bullish candle indicating bullish sentiment
W - Last week's candle closed as a doji candle - could indicate that bulls are losing momentum
D - Massive gap up of 425 pips. Friday's candle closed as an inverted hammer candle (this is a bearish candle).
4H - Bears pushed down on Friday after candles touched the 0.618 Sell fib level. Doji candle possibly indicating that down trend is over.
1H - Strange looking DB (it kinda threw me off) but neckline broken upwards. I made the assumption that the DB marked in blue lines on the 1H TF was indeed a DB. I don't know if in theory it would be classified as such, but price gaped up significantly at C. and so although there is no green candle indicating price moved up, price gapped up and I took it as a DB.
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Fib - price made a large DB just above the 4H - 0.50 fib level + pivot point
2. S&R - Pivot point was acting as a strong support with long candle wicks sticking out the bottom (on the 1H TF). Entered a buy when I was convinced on the 5min TF that the 4H EMA would not push price down and that price was able to successfully break & re-test the 4H EMA area.
3. Trend - buy is in the same direction as the overall bullish trend of Nasdaq. I keep my bias as a buy until a reversal pattern appears at least on the D TF.
4. Candlesticks - a doji candle appeared on the 1H TF at D. indicating that sellers may be losing momentum. Also the long wick sticking out of the pivot point indicate that sellers pushed down hard but bears were able to hold this area strong
5. Market pattern - DB with neckline broken upwards, as marked with the blue lines. You can also see a nice little re-test of the neckline at E.
Mental stop was place at the thick pink line, which was the 4H - 0.318 buy fib level. If candles started closing below the fib level then my buy would be invalidated.
Price action was pretty choppy and price came close to my SL area but as market opened, bulls stepped in and boosted price.
I was hoping for a sweet TP 1 at the green TP1 line, but the 4H - 0.618 fib level was too strong.
I closed half my position at the arrow icon, when bears pushed down hard and bulls were unable to keep price above the 4H - 0.618 sell fib, I knew there was trouble. I decided to be aggressive with the remaining half of my position and was hoping that price would not retrace all the way to my entry before hitting TP1.
It was aggressive, because for me last week's doji candle means that I need to take profit on my buys because it could be that bears step in at any moment.
But alas, no TP1 for me today! And I was out at entry on my other half position.
So only bagged about a 1'000 pips profit on half a position.
Hope you had a good trading day! :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
US100 / NDX / USTECH Bullish Robbery PlanMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
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Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe
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NASDAQ - UniverseMetta - Analysis#NASDAQ - UniverseMetta - Analysis
Continuation of the trend, we can consider the formation of a 3-wave structure. In order not to increase risks, it is better to consider the exit after the 2nd wave, since the price can once again update the local minimum and form the ABC structure for further upward movement. Globally, targets may be at the level of 21750.
Target 20750 - 21750
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Friday 12 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - PPI @ 13:30
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
Took a massive 2'000 pip loss the day before, so I knew I had to tread carefully today and make my best trading decisions. This was no time for revenge trading nor cowboy moves.
I had to make a really good trading decision or stay out to protect my capital, until a quality trade made itself visible.
Judging the candles and the fact that price had dropped 6'000 pips (un-freakin-believable), I felt like price would retrace to at least test the sell fib levels.
Price had formed a consolidation triangle (marked in blue lines during the early morning hours). These can break up or down. So I knew I had to be careful because it could be that price was just stalling before making a further plunge down to sellers TP1 (marked in orange and found by drawing a sell fib from swing high at A. to swing low at B.)
Price broke down from the consolidation triangle, but the yellow highlighted S&R zone seemed strong enough to hold price up.
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - DB formed on the 30min TF with a break of the neckline upwards. Entered when the neckline break candle closed.
2. Fib - consolidation triangle + DB market patterns were forming just above the W - 0.050 fib level
3. S&R - yellow highlighted support zone seemed to be holding up price, indicated by the long wick candles forming at this zone.
4. Trend - the buy was in the same direction as the overall bullish trend on Nas, and the break of the neckline candle had broken the temporary downtrend line (the upper blue line of the consolidation triangle)
5. Time frame confluence - at the same time as the DB with a broken neckline was formed on the 30min TF, it also formed on the 1H TF. So multiple TF's were giving bullish signals.
Mental stop loss was placed at half the height of the market pattern and I decided to place my SL at half the height of the 15min DB, just because it was also the 1H S&R zone that seemed to be holding strong.
For me, if candles started closing below this level than my buy would be invalidated.
As I entered, price immediately dropped.
Price was playing around my SL but when the long wick hammer candle closed on the 30min TF, I decided to keep my buy active.
Price moved up and away from my stop loss area. When PPI news broke, price spiked down, but even on the 5min TF, the candle closed way above my SL zone.
From there, bulls pushed up hard and price moved up quickly.
This is what makes trading Nas so difficult in my opinion, candles can spike drastically, but it's how they close that really matters. So sometimes you have to have the bravery to sit out a deep spike. Not easy.
So now I knew a retracement was in play and the area around the pivot was a strong sell zone because:
Pivot point + 4H - 0.318 fib level + 4H EMA (at that time).
Price blasted past this zone but when there was weakness in the candles on the 15min TF, I decided to call it a day at 2'000 pip profit and thank my lucky Nasdaq stars that I had recovered my my previous day's mistake.
In theory, I would have liked to keep a runner open in case price moves back up but I had no such luxury today....I needed every pip that Nasdaq would give me.
Hope you are having a good weekend!
See ya Monday for more Nasdaq fun! ;)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 11 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 13h00 GMT
Economic news - CPI @ 13h30
Directional bias - BUY
This post is titled: CRASH AND BURN!!! :(
So I have runner's that are still in play from previously - roughly in the area of the bang emoji.
My plan for CPI was to keep my directional bias as a buy, but I only wanted to get in if price spiked down.
If price spiked upwards, I was happy for my runners to benefit.
I identified 2 areas of interest -
Area 1:
Pivot point + 1H 0.382 fib (drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.) + Consolidation triangle market pattern profit target (marked in orange lines.
Area 2:
4H 0.50 fib level + orange trend line + 4H EMA (at that time) + strong 4H S&R zone + 4H 0.618 fib level not to far below + D - 0.382 fib level not too far below.
I set a smaller position buy limit at Area 1 and a bigger position buy limit at Area 2.
At 13h30, the CPI data was released and came in below expectations.
Market spiked up, but bulls could not keep price afloat.
When the long wick appeared on the 1H TF, I recognized that bulls may be losing momentum.
I immediately removed my buy limit in Area 1 because it was too close to price in my opinion and I would rather enter manually in that zone if need be.
To my surprise, price dropped like a hot potato.
Welcome to Nasdaq trading! Haha! :)
I was still pretty confident in my Area 2 and so kept that buy limit, after all it was +-1'500 pips from where price was at that moment.
My order triggered and I was in with a buy.
But my overconfidence got the better of me. I was so confident in the strength of this zone and so confident in my expectation that price would at least bounce from here, that I never actually considered where my stop loss would be.
So I made a deadly mistake - I entered a trade without having a trade plan.
As price continued to fall, my mind started reeling and I had no clue what to do. My runner's were closing and I just couldn't think clearly.
EVENTUALLY I closed this position. But I closed it way too late and took a MUCH bigger loss that I would have if I had planned my trade.
I took a loss of +- 2'000 pips on a pretty big position.
Even just writing that feels ridiculous and I can't believe I let that happen, but my mind was reeling and the drop was happening fast.
My regret is not that I entered a buy (I am glad that I did because the area was super strong in my opinion).
My regret is that I entered without a proper trade plan.
To prevent this from ever happening again, I have added a new trading rule to my trading system:
If I enter a buy limit order, my SL is 500pips from entry, no matter what. Reason is that I only enter buy limits when I feel the area is strong and if price is able to move 500pips from that area of interest in the opposite direction to my expectation, then it means I got it wrong and I need to get out of the trade quick!
So learn from my costly mistake (and one that I don't normally make)....always plan your stop loss!
Once out, I knew I needed to wait for really strong confirmation before entering again. So no revenge trading for me!
Hope CPI went better for you! :)
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NASDAQ/US100 Market Money Heist PlanMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist US100/NASDAQ Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
support our robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Wednesday 10 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
So yesterday I opened 4 x positions at about the "bang" emoji.
Refer to yesterday's post to understand those entries.
Last night I had secured all positions at entry and went to sleep hoping for the best. Early morning bulls pushed price nice and high by the time I woke up.
I closed my 1st position at Exit 1:
Bears pushed down strongly at the 0.618 sell fib level (sell fib level marked in red and fib drawn from swing high at B. to swing low at C.)
A DT formed on the 1H TF (marked with green lines) which is a high and strong timeframe.
So we have a 1H DT right on the sell 0.618 fib level, PLUS the red candle right above the words "Exit 1" actually broke the neckline of the DT down.
So I had to secure some profit at this point and closed 1 out of 4 positions at about 530 pips.
Happy with this exit.
At Exit 2 I closed another position.
Mainly because if at D. price continued to go down, D. would have been the second top of a 4H DT.
Not super thrilled with this one, I think I could have been more aggressive here and stayed in the game, especially as I had already taken some profit.
But the strong bear candle on the 1H TF came down hard and I suspected a DT may be forming.
But it is what it is - 878 pips ain't so bad after all.
At Exit 3, I closed my third position.
Happy with this exit, it was TP1 on the Day fib extension - fib drawn on the D TF but swing low and swing high shown on the 4H TF as A. and B.
This exit was 2'400 pips in the profit.
Still have my 4th position running and will be super aggressive with this one and hope CPI and PPI goes in my favour and I bang out the big bucks.
Alternatively, happy to have this position close at entry.
You gotta risk some to win big and I already have my profit bagged.
Hope you benefited from the massive buy today!
See ya tomorrow for CPI!
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 9 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
During analysis noted the following:
M TF - current month's candle is 9'300 pips strong, indicative of strong bullish momentum
D TF - is bullish with yesterday's candle closing with a very small upper wick
4H TF - price has moved further than orange profit target, but I suspect that bears might start putting pressure on price.
1H TF - formation of a rising wedge market pattern, marked with dark blue lines. These usually break downwards, but can break in either direction. If the rising wedge does break downwards, the subsequent move down will be significant because the wedge pattern itself is large. Profit target is always the same height as the market pattern.
Noted 2 x areas of interest (areas of interest changed throughout the day because fib levels changed as market kept rising + EMA's moving - but ultimately these were my areas of interest for the day):
Area 1:
Pivot Point + 4H 0.618 fib level
Area 2:
Assuming that wedge market pattern has broken downwards and this area is the wedge profit target + 4H EMA + D 0.50 fib level(ish)
In the morning hours, entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
Market pattern - DB formed on the 15min TF, with a break of the neckline upwards. Entered on the break of the neckline
Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall bullish trend + temporary uptrend formed marked by the bottom pink line of the triangle
Candlesticks - the 1H candle close before this 15min DB entry was a doji candle, indicating that sellers may be losing momentum.
S&R - when the market is very bullish then price will respect the 30min EMA. There was a long wick candle down to the 30min EMA indicating that price was reacting to this dynamic support.
Fib - none
Set a mental SL at half the height of the market pattern as indicated by the think pink line.
Entered only half a position because it seemed unlikely that price would really move up from here with out first retracing.
Price moved up and then back down and price action broke my SL area and I closed at 100 pip loss (losing 100 pips is not a big deal in my books)
So waited patiently for my next set up, but was pretty confident in my Area 2, so set a buy limit for this zone for my full position size.
The area at the mushroom is pretty strong area because it is a strong S&R zone on the 4H TF and the D 0.382 fib level.
Price wicked down to this level and then seemed to reverse.
Watching price action carefully, I entered buys when a DB formed on the 5min TF with a break of the neckline upwards - this DB formed right on the 4H 0.618 fib level and the D pivot point.
I entered further buys when a DB formed on the 15min TF and 30 min TF, meaning that price was giving bullish signals on all the lower TF's i.e. timeframe confluence.
Mental stop was always at half the DB for each entered position.
Now currently, my positions are roughly 300 pips up and secured at entry.
I will leave them running till tomorrow and set TP 1 at a re-test of the ascending wedge pattern.
Sell Fib levels are also shown on the 1H TF, so tomorrow I will be watch for a reversal at these points (seems bulls have already pushed past the 0.382 sell fib level)
Hope you had a good day trading!
Catch ya tomorrow!
What could I have done differently / better?
Pretty happy with my performance today, I was patient and waited for market to give me a signal to buy. I also managed risk well by scaling in my buys as confirmation grew stronger and stronger on the various TF's
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Nasdaq 100 Remains in Record Territory
As with the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 continues to rally day after day with nary a meaningful dip since April.
While the 14-day RSI isn't at it's most overbought level this year, it is showing a potential bearish divergence at the recent highs, where price makes a higher high and the momentum indicator makes a lower high (so far).
Index traders will be watching this divergence carefully to see whether it hints at a more significant top forming in the coming days.
If we do see a near-term dip, the rising trend line and previous-resistance-turned-support at 20,000 will be the key support levels to watch.
-MW
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 8 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None
Directional bias - BUY (because an overall trend is like the current of a fast flowing river, if you go against the fast flowing waters, you will go a shorter distance than you may expect. If you go with the current, you will go further than you may initially expect)
During analysis noted the following:
M TF - Bullish
W TF - price stalled at the 19'737 zone (with a shooting star and doji candle formations) but then price pushed higher
D TF - bullish with Friday Day candle closing with a strong momentum bull candle
Noted an area of interest:
Area of confluence highlighted in green is where D pivot + 4H 0.382 exactly align (as at morning analysis when fib was drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.)
Set a buy limit to enter a full buy position at this level.
As the morning progressed a descending triangle pattern formed, marked in blue lines
Entered a buy at the hand icon on the 30min TF (even though I thought that market may retrace to my area of interest, Nasdaq gave the clear sign that it was ready to move up).
Confirmations:
Market pattern - Descending triangle patterns usually break down but can break in either direction. In this case the pattern was broken upwards as the bullish support level (bottom horizontal line of triangle) held strong. I entered a buy when the 30min candle closed on the 30min TF. I waited for this candle close because I wanted to be sure that price could break the 1H S&R zone marked in the light blue highlight.
Also a DB had formed and neckline broken upwards on the 30min TF and temporary down trend line was broken - marked with orange lines
S&R - 1H S&R level was broken
Trend - buy is in the same direction as the overall trend and the temporary down trend line in blue had been broken too
Fib - none
Mental stop loss was placed at the pink thick line, which is half the height of the DB formation
Price moved 580 pips from my position.
I secured when price had moved 250 pips from my entry.
When market opened (US session) there was a tug of war between bears and bulls.
Price came down to my entry twice at C. - I removed my stop loss both times (the first two candle wicks at C.) because I wanted to see how price would react to the 30min EMA.
On the third wick down at C. I was out at entry because I did not feel confident as to the direction of market on the third bearish push down.
Decided I will enter again if price comes down to the pivot point and my area of interest.
If not, and if price moves up from here, then I will let my runner from Friday take advantage of the upward move.
Ultimately price moved 890 pips from my entry but I did not gain from this move because I was out at entry at C.
At least my runner took advantage of the buy and I live to trade another day.
What could I have done differently / better?
Looking at the price action now, I don't see a re-entry point that I would have been happy and confident with.
So ultimately, I am happy with the risk I took to watch price action at the 30 min EMA twice in a row by removing my stop loss (not something I usually do).
But I have no regrets to being out at entry, because it could have gone the other way today. So I took a risk and then protected my capital.
A good day on Nasdaq is a small loss, being out at entry or a win.
So I guess it was a good day! ;)
Hope you profited from this buy!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
NASDAQ Composite - The Momentum Will Continue Till 19,250(1) After a notable increase, the price reached the 16,200 level before facing a sharp decline of approximately 37%.
(2) Following this, the price found solid support near the 10,150 level and started to climb again.
(3) After a two-year consolidation period, the price finally broke through its resistance level and surged upwards.
(4) A Cup & Handle pattern emerged on the weekly chart, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend.
(5) Currently, the price is at its all-time high, nearing a potential resistance level around 19,250.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Friday 5 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 13h00 GMT
Economic news - NFP @ 13H30
Directional bias - BUY (overall trend on Nas is bullish - "The trend is your friend")
During analysis noted the following:
Usually don't like trading in the morning before NFP (because often market is just consolidating) - so did my analysis just before the news came out.
I am still figuring out my personal method of trading NFP, but I lean towards trading with the trend and trying to get in on a spike down.
Price was at about the arrow when I did my analysis.
I noted a DT had formed on the 1H TF - neckline and profit target marked with green lines. Profit target = same height as the market pattern.
Also noted that if price dips from where it was at the arrow, then a DT would be formed on the 4H TF - neckline and profit target marked with purple lines.
At the time of analysis, the 4H EMA was right at the profit target of the purple DT.
I have noticed that even during news, very strong areas of confluence can still cause price to bounce (sometimes enough to be able to secure at entry after price has moved 250 pips from entry).
So because I felt that market is still chasing that orange profit target, from the huge orange consolidation triangle, I felt convinced of my directional bias.
I had two strong areas of interest:
Area 1:
Profit target of purple DT + 4H EMA + Strong S&R (previous swing high on 4H TF) + 4H 0.382 fib zone (Fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.)
So at this area, you would get pattern traders possibly entering, EMA traders possibly entering, fib traders possibly entering and S&R traders
Area 2:
4H 0.50 fib level + D 0.382 fib level + strong support on 4H TF.
So I set buy orders for quite big positions at these areas.
It's risky because NFP can be so incredibly volatile and can just smash so far down that you can bust your account.
Area 1 was 1'400 pips from where price was at the arrow and area 2 was 2'500 pips from where price was.
So be sure your account can handle your buy orders if a large draw down occurs.
Because these 2 area's were so far down, I felt I had to set a buy order somewhere higher.
I identified Area 3:
Profit target of 1H DT + 1H 0.50 fib + 1H EMA + somewhat of a S&R zone on 1H TF.
But because this was so close to where price was, I set a buy order for a much smaller position.
NFP news came out, and my Area 3 buy order triggered.
Had a draw down of about 278 pips and price touched the Daily pivot and reversed (I find it so interesting how price can spike down to a very specific point and then reverse on the spot and fly).
Clearly, many traders had set buy orders at this level.
Price skyrocketed and I feel it is chasing that orange profit target level.
Ultimately price moved 2'200 pips from my position.
My profit target is at the orange profit target line end and I am still in the game (didn't close as yet).
Patience paid off and I am happy to end a relatively quiet week of missed trades (because of work deadlines) with a BANG!!!
Hope you caught this awesome buy and made nice money!
Have a great weekend!
Monday we trade again! :)
Tesla Analysis!NASDAQ:TSLA Analysis on a Weekly Timeframe!
Multiyear trendline breakout in Tesla!
Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern formation at Support!
Neckline breakout in Tesla!
Of course we have missed the entry in a Tesla but take is as a learning. Where I have combined Multiyear Resistance trendline with Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern. So what we need to do is ,Identify the chart pattern on a longer timeframe and after that on the event of breakout need to come down to lower timeframe. As I marked all the levels on a weekly timeframe but we can enter in the stock on a Daily Timeframe.
Disclaimer = Consider my analysis for Educational Purposes only.
Before entering into any trade -
1) Educate Yourself
2) Do your research and analysis
3) Define your Risk to Reward ratio
4) Don't trade with full capital
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Wednesday 3 July 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - ADP Non-farm Employment Change + initial jobless claims
Early market close today - volume & volatility may be light today
Directional bias - BUY
During early morning analysis noted the following:
Yesterday the bulls pushed higher, breaking out from the 4H consolidation triangle that had formed. Bulls managed to close the D candle higher than the previous highest D close.
Bulls were flexing muscles yesterday.
Usually the profit target on a break out of a consolidation triangle is the same height as the height of the triangle itself (marked in orange lines). This means that theoretically we can expect a significant move up.
I suspect that price may retrace today - possibly a shallow retracement before moving up because bulls will be pushing for the orange profit target.
Identified two areas of interest (as at 6am GMT) highlighted in green. If price comes to these areas, I will enter a buy at my full position size;
Area 1:
Pivot point + 4H 0.382 fib level (drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.) + 1H 0.618 fib level (drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D)
Area 2:
Top of the consolidation triangle (i.e. assuming market would want to re-test this market pattern) + 4H 0.50 fib level + 4H EMA (EMA was at this area in the morning)
But I think it is unlikely that price will come down this far because the retest of the consolidation triangle already happened on the 1H TF i.e. the red candle close to C. (quite a high time frame thus representing a strong re-test)
Noted another consolidation triangle formed on the 1H TF (as marked by the dark pink lines) during the morning hours.
Entered a buy as price started breaking upwards from the market pattern (indicated by the hand).
I generally don't like to enter on these early morning market patterns because I've seen they are often prone to fake-outs on Nas100.
But I was watching price action carefully on the 5min, 15min and 30min TF's and bulls seemed to hold breakout strong. I entered gradually as my confidence rose that this is not a fake out.
Mental stop was placed below the consolidation triangle (marked with the thick pink line).
Market moved up by more than 250 pips and I secured my trades at entry.
Bears stepped in forcing a retracement and I was out at entry.
Price touched the 1H EMA and this was enough dynamic support to invite bulls back into play.
At this moment I was very distracted with work deadlines an unable to pay the close attention to my charts as I usually do. So I did not re-enter.
But looking back at the candles now, the buy entry at E. was not an easy one. Nas did not give clear confirmation. The bulls momentum candle was right as the US session opened at 14h30.
There was no nice DB on the 5min nor the 15min TF (which are the TF's I use for precision entries).
The bullish momentum candle came up so high that it just didn't feel right (to me).
Perhaps the correct entry would have been at F. which was the re-test of the uptrend pink line and also the 0.618 fib level on the 1H TF (fib drawn from swing low E. at to swing high at G.) But this entry style is not my entry style.
Usually what I do to combat these kinds of situations is to leave a small runner open. So for example if I had a successful trade open yesterday and market moved up +- 2'000 pips let's say...then I would leave a small runner open.
For me, it removes the FOMO I feel when Nas just turns around without much confirmation, because then I still feel like I am "part of" the big move up and dont feel like I am missing out.
Then my runners take advantage of days like today and I re-enter my bigger positions into the uptrend on strong retracement interest areas.
I recently closed all my runner's on the 3 bear day candle closes.
Hope you caught this nice buy!
If you did...tell me how you got in!?
Not trading tomorrow....see ya Friday!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss