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QQQs overbought conditions forces June SwoonQQQs has been a steadily forming this ascending triangle flag since early February as part of a 3 month corrective wave pattern (4th wave). It wont take long for this pullback to happen (June Swoon). Perhaps as early July we start to see the market bottom here around 325ish then breaking out to complete the cycle. Sometime around early to mid Sept we top out around 400ish then correct hard. I'm still trying to figure out what can cause such a breakdown in the market. It is extremely likely that a CoVid wave hits the US once again due to the delta variant being strongly felt among young adults. I'm assuming the US will not hit herd immunity of 70% before flu season (October) and cases rise accordingly. More deaths in young adults. Some states shut down again? Who knows? The other is inflation data coming in hotter than expected and FOMC meeting in the end of Sept causes more deterioration in the market and Powell is extremely hawkish pushing the fed to raise rates sooner than expected as early as beginning of 2022 instead of end of 2022. Oof! If both news data comes to fruition, I could see the QQQs back in the 250s. The fifth wave is complete and my count is wrong and we go back to 2015 highs. I hope only one bad data happens and we go in this long bull run in the markets for the super cycle.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by CTRLZEEE
2
Nasdaq – Corrective Wave C where does it stop?I made some tweaks to my long-term wave analysis of the Nasdaq. I thought that there maybe a small correction then one more rally high up before a major correction. However, after some more noodling through it this morning, there is a more than zero chance that the upcoming corrective wave C may be it. The rally off the recent low (Wave B) in March hit 1.236 of Wave A exactly on Thursday (long pin up to touch it). That would be the end of Wave B. This puts us in either an Expanded Flat or Running Flat corrective wave (both end at 123.6% of wave A). Here are the options. Running Flat -> Wave C = 61.8% – 100% of wave AB Expanded Flat -> Wave C = 123.6% – 161.8% of wave AB That is a pretty big range to pick from. Based on my posted idea from yesterday, we have ended the super cycle motive wave for tech. Will this be the end-all corrective wave after such an impressive motive wave for the last few decades? If so, then an expanded flat would do it but it could take us all the way down to the 4500 range within a few months. Will the Fed pump give us a running flat that limits the pain in the short term, but we run the risk of a drawn out multi-year bear market that slowly and painfully works its way down to 4500? FYI, the same pattern is developing in the S&P 500. The S&P looks to be in a Zig Zag Corrective wave. It hit 0.854 of Wave A instead of 1.236 like the Nasdaq. Hope I am wrong and hope this helps. Good luck out there.
NLong
by Dr_Roboto
5
NASDAQ waves - Compare to dot com - Completed final wave???Wave analysis all the way back to the beginning of NASDAQ (zoom out and pan around). Focus on last major motive wave sequence. If my analysis is correct, then it looks like the NASDAQ may be at the end of its run. Also, I added the final motive wave from the dot com bubble over the current motive wave. As you can see, the NASDAQ is currently a bigger bubble than dot com. This is not trading advice. Enjoy and good luck.
TLong
by Dr_Roboto
2
Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 7 S&P 500Here is the culmination of my last 4 months of technical analysis of the stock market. I looked at important growth stocks of the past and where they are today. From that analysis, I applied the lessons learned to todays market. 1) Growth stocks break out of the mean channel of wave 1 to finish wave 3 and 5. Average stocks stay in the mean channel. 2) The following correction will take them back to the project mean of wave 1, maybe even below. The more they break above the mean the more they drop during the correction. 3) Head and Shoulders pattern usually describes motive waves 4-5 and the following corrective ABC wave. After a major correction several things can be learned 1) Some companies never really recover, assume they just had high prices because every company did (thing tech bubble) 2) Some companies recover but never become growth stocks again and grow but stay along a mean growth 3) Some companies are able to reinvent themselves and become growth stocks again (MICROSOFT) I can't say I did everything correctly. I took my best shot at it and at the minimum gives a solid idea what could be to come for stocks in 2020 and beyond. I broke this down in several idea posts. Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 1 GE Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 2 AT&T Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 3 IBM Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 4 MICROSOFT Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 5 GOOGLE Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 6 AMAZON Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 7 S&P 500 Market Cycles - Waves and return to the mean - Part 8 NASDAQ Hope this helps and good luck.
A
by Dr_Roboto