Newzealanddollar
NZDUSD Is this 1D Golden Cross a bearish signal?The NZDUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down on the 1D time-frame since the February 02 2023 High. The price almost reached the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which has formed both previous Lower Highs.
As the pair completed a 1D Golden Cross today, traders might immediately think that this is a bullish signal, as theory suggests but in the past 18 months, both previous Golden Crosses have formed the Top.
At the same time, the 1D RSI completed a Double Top, similar to the December 27 2023 Top. As a result, we have strong evidence to sell this pair again, and target 0.57750 (Support 1).
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NZD/USD: Takeaways into ThursdayNZDUSD – Technical Overview
The overall pressure remains on the downside, with the market stalling on attempts to move up into the 0.6500 area. However, there are indications that the market may be attempting to establish a longer-term base. To alleviate medium-term downward pressure and support this prospect, a break back above 0.6500 is necessary. A monthly close below 0.5800 would intensify bearish price action.
R2: 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong
R1: 0.6200 – Figure – Medium
S1: 0.6083 – 22 May low – Medium
S2: 0.6031 – 15 May low – Strong
NZDUSD – Fundamental Overview
The New Zealand Dollar has benefited from the risk-on sentiment following the latest soft CPI print from the US, which has renewed demand for risk-correlated assets. However, rallies have been hindered by more hawkish communications from the Fed. Key highlights on Thursday's calendar include German wholesale prices, Eurozone industrial production, US producer prices, US initial jobless claims, and some Fed speak.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
NZDUSD - Short Trade IdeaNZDUSD recently displaced to the downside but quickly made a recovery and displaced above the swing of the recent drop. There was buyside liquidity in the form of equal highs that were swept, but the candle bodies seem to be respecting the bearish Orderblock.
I am anticipating price now return to a discount, taking out the sellside liquidity below, into a weekly BISI.
- R2F
GBPNZD 1D MA50 rejection. Sell Signal.The GBPNZD pair recently made a Bearish Break-out as it broke below the Channel Up and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), introducing a new Channel Down pattern. On Monday we saw the latest rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been holding as Resistance since May 03.
As long as it holds, we expect the new Bearish Leg to start. The previous one stopped after a -2.75% decline, which currently gives a price tag at a little below 2.0300. However we will use a more modest Target, aiming at 2.04000 (a little above Support 2).
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EURNZD: Buy Opportunity
Well, as you can see, the price hit the daily bullish FVG in deep discount and cleared the sell-side liquidity. Here in the hourly chart, we know the market structure shifted and we are bullish now.
Now we are on the buy side of the curve so we expect the price to stay above the key level and respect the bullish PD Arrays, like Order block and FVG that you can see on the chart.
We need LTF confirmation for entry.
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🔎 DYOR
🗓️06/06/2024
💡Wait for the update!
NZDCAD: Bearish scenarios...! (Details on caption) By checking the hourly NZDCAD chart we can figure out that the bearish scenario is high probability.
the price cleared the liquidity above the daily candle and then shifted the market structure and also had a bearish reaction to the bearish order block.
Now, we can see the sell side liquidity which formed as equal lows, trend line liquidity, and daily FVG which can be our last target.
For seeing this bearish move I can expect two scenarios that you can see on the chart.
First, the price can move down from here.
second, because of the clean buy-side liquidity we can expect the price to sweep the liquidity first and then move down. (I prefer to follow this scenario)
As always we need LTF confirmation for entry.
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🔎 DYOR
🗓️07/06/2024
💡Wait for the update!
GBPNZD 1H Long Trade - 1:6 RRRPair: GBPNZD
Action: Buy
RRR: 1:6
SL: 2.06221
TP: 2.09800
Indicators:
EMA200: The EMA200 serves as a critical indicator of the long-term trend direction.
MACD Trend: The MACD indicator helps traders assess the strength and direction of the trend.
Supertrend: The Supertrend indicator acts as a reliable tool for identifying entry points in alignment with the prevailing trend.
GBPNZD 1H Long Trade - 1:6 RRRPair: GBPNZD
Action: Buy
RRR: 1:6
SL: 2.06221
TP: 2.09800
Indicators:
EMA200: The EMA200 serves as a critical indicator of the long-term trend direction.
MACD Trend: The MACD indicator helps traders assess the strength and direction of the trend.
Supertrend: The Supertrend indicator acts as a reliable tool for identifying entry points in alignment with the prevailing trend.
NZDUSD 1H Short Trade - 1:6 RRRPair: NZDUSD
Action: Sell
RRR: 1:6
SL: 0.62053
TP: 0.60339
Indicators:
EMA200: The EMA200 serves as a critical indicator of the long-term trend direction.
MACD Trend: The MACD indicator helps traders assess the strength and direction of the trend.
Supertrend: The Supertrend indicator acts as a reliable tool for identifying entry points in alignment with the prevailing trend.
AUDNZD Know when to buy and sell. Strong pattern ahead.The AUDNZD pair is currently consolidating exactly on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) following the May 07 rejection near Resistance 1, which resulted in a strong sell-off. We expect this sell-off to extend at least as low as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (blue) and then rebound towards the Symmetrical Resistance Zone, approximately on the upward 0.618 Fib (black).
Our long-term Target is eventually 1.06600 (near Support 1). Our projection is based on the similar price action of June- July 2023.
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NZDJPY Approaching the top of 3.5 years Channel Up. Strong sell.The NZDJPY pair is trading on the 4th straight green 1W candle and is approaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on November 2020. Even though it may extend to a +9.30% rise (the smallest long-term it had within the pattern), selling now offers excellent Risk/ Reward conditions. Our target is 92.000 (Higher Lows trend-line).
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NZDUSD Still bullish but be aware of the sell opportunity above.The rebound we expected on NZDUSD came a little later than we expected two months ago (March 22, see chart below) but nonetheless it is being delivered now and the price is now very close to our medium-term target:
Since we observe though a shift on the Lower Highs trend-line of the long-term Channel Down, we decide to push the Target higher to 0.62600, which now represents the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and would be almost a +7.14% rise, similar to the July 14 2023 (Lower) High.
A 1D RSI Double Top would be a perfect sell entry signal like December 27 2023.
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EURNZD: Clear Bearish Outlook 🇪🇺🇳🇿
EURNZD has a very nice potential to drop lower.
After a consolidation within a narrow range,
the price violated a solid horizontal support cluster on a daily.
The next support that I see is 1.771
It can be the next goal for the sellers.
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AUDNZD:🔴Sell opportunity🔴The price hit the HTF supply zone and had a bearish reaction, creating the buy-side liquidity alongside the bearish FVG in the premium, so we can expect the price to hit the bearish FVG and collect all the buy-side liquidity and then come down for sell-side liquidity.
In this scenario, I like to see speed when the price sweeps the liquidity above the old high.
As always, we need LTF confirmation to enter a sell position.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️13/05/2024
🔎 DYOR
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NZDCHF Short-term buy opportunity.The NZDCHF pair delivered a strong buy signal following our last bullish call (February 29, see chart below) and after hitting the top of the Channel Up, it immediately pulled back to its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line):
The price is already on former Resistance 1 but has some more room left to expand to upwards before pulling back again, as the minimum Bullish Leg within the Channel Up has been +4.05%. As a result we are bullish short-term with a 0.54950 Target (+4.05%).
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