Get started

Niftylongtermoutlook

Three Year Parallel Channel of Nifty with Multiple indicators. We have tried to draw a Three Year Parallel Channel of Nifty with Multiple indicators. We will try to understand what is happening as per each indicator and try to get the jist of moves that may occur with a medium to long term perspective. Indicator 1) Parallel Channel: The parallel channel indicates that after hitting the channel top at 26277 the Nifty is receding and is on a search of it's bottom from where it can launch forward again. That is the case when every time Nifty has it a channel top as you can see in the chart. The Future Channel Top once Nifty picks up the next Bull run seems to be around 29497 as per the parallel channel. Mid channel support of the parallel channel is around 23500 zone which can support Nifty. If we get a weekly closing below 23500 this level will become a resistance. In such a scenario of weekly closing below 23500 Channel bottom seems to be near 21296. Indicator 2) Fibonacci Retracement: Fibonacci retracement suggests a bottom near 23263. If this level is broken there is a possibility of Nifty falling to the next fibonacci supports will be at 22506 and 21577. Once the Bull run begins the next resistance levels as per Fibonacci seem to be at 24725, 26777 (Previous high), 27162 and finally 28331. Indicator 3) Bollinger Band: Support with respect to lower width of Bollinger Band seems to be near 23340. Mid Bollinger band resistance seems to be near 24660 and Bollinger band upper width resistances seems to be near 25981. Indicator 4) RSI or the Relative Strength Index: RSI currently is at 44.41 and going downwards showing weakness. The RSI support can be found in the zone of 40, 38 or 36. Usually When RSI is below 30 the stock or index is considered oversold and when the stock or index RSI is above 70 it is considered overbought. RSI Below 20 is extremely oversold zone and RSI above 80 is considered extremely overbought. Indicator 5) MACD or Moving Average Convergence and Divergence: MACD is a combination of Moving averages lines which tend to indicate direction in which stock or index will move and histograms indicate strength or weakness of a rally. As per MACD Nifty right now is in extreme Bear grip and will take a little time to recover. When the Blue line will start moving upwards and when it might cross the red line and continue to move upwards it can be considered as Nifty will come back to Bull Zone. Colour of histograms at that time will also start going Dark Green or light Green. Indicator 6) 50 and 200 weeks EMA or the Mother and Father line: I have designed a theory called Mother, Father and Small Child Theory. As per this theory the movement of index or a stock in the chart is like a movement of a 3 year old child when it goes to a garden. The movement of 50 EMA is like movement of the mother and movement of the 200 EMA is like movement of a Father of that child. To know more about this theory or other indicators mentioned earlier you need to read my book THE HAPPY CANDLES WAY TO WEALTH CREATION. This book is available in Amazon in paperback or Kindle version. It is one of the Highest rated book in the category. Have a look at that book it will help you immensely in your wealth creation journey. Now as per this theory the Nifty right now is at 23587. 50 Weeks EMA is at 23403. 200 Weeks EMA is at 19335. as the Nifty is above these levels both these levels will work as a great support to Nifty and can help Nifty from falling further. Conclusion: Nifty is approaching multiple supports from where it has potential to turnaround. Mid channel support is around 23500, 50 Weeks EMA support or the Mother line is at 23403. 23340 is the Bollinger band lower band width support. Fibonacci support is at 23263. We can see a turnaround mostly from either of these three supports. If these supports are broken by chance (looks less likely but you can never say never) then the next supports will be at 22507, 21296 or worst case scenario as of now looks like 19335. On the upper side resistances seem to be at 24660 Fibonacci mid resistance, 24725 is the Fibonacci resistance, 25981 is Bollinger band upper width resistance and 26277 is the Fibonacci resistnace which also the previous high of Nifty. Once this zone is crossed in a long term we can reach the targets of 27162 Fibonacci resistance, 28331 Fibonacci golden ratio resistnace and 29497 which is the approximate nex channel top. (This is the Medium to Long term outlook of Nifty). This is how you can analyse any index or a stock using the 6 indicators mentioned in the writeup. I give top most priority to these 6 indicators in my analysis. Disclaimer: Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Cup and Handle kind of structure forming in Nifty. Nifty has given a good closing despite ending below the weekly high today. This week's high that Nifty achieved was 24857 while the closing is at 24677. The closing is substantially above 50 Week's EMA at and 50 days' EMA which is at 24396. this should be considered good reversal signal subject to we get a closing above 24857 within next week or the week after. FIIs selling has diminished and buying has emerged. There was little bit of DII selling seen on the browsers indication a little bit of profit booking or sectoral rotation. If you look at the chart a prominent structure of cup and handle is emerging which is again indicative of a positive indication. Those who are sitting on cash can slowly start building positions. The support for Nifty remain at: 24396 Strong support (Mother line of Daily chart) , 23882, 23340 Very strong support (Mother line of weekly chart), 23194 strong support (Mid channel support), If there is some adverse local or global news out of the blue all of a sudden as there is a substantial fall in unlikely circumstances the channel bottom support seems to be at 21229. (Highly unlikely scenario). The Resistances of Nifty Remain at: 24857 strong resistance (Weekly High), 25377, 25827 (Strong resistance), 26277 (Previous high and very strong resistance). Once we cross and get a weekly closing above 26277 in a long term the next strong resistances will be at 27269 (Cup and handle top and very strong resistance). Channel top in the long run 4 to 9 months from now seems to be at 27801. To know how to read charts and to know about Happy Candles numbers, parallel channel and my famous Mother, Father and small child theory read my book THE HAPPY CANDLES WAY TO WEALTH CREATION available on Amazon. The link to purchase the book is at the bottom in the signature section of the chart. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Study of Nifty since it's inception for long term view/Outlook. Nifty has closed at highest monthly closing. It is almost at all time high. Now what the future holds for investors? It is the right time to look at All Time Chart of Nifty. This will help us in taking a long term view of Nifty we decided to look at the all time channel of the same since it's inception in 1991. This research has given three indications. The long term channel is the best way to get predict the Nifty as it filters out all noise. The cut off date we have indicated is January 2028. This study and analysis has shown an interesting result which indicates that the best case scenario for Nifty by 2028 can be 49K+ levels. (If we continue to grow at the same rate along with the same trendline). In case of stutter the moderate case scenario seems to be that we can reach 30K+ levels. The worst case scenario as of now seems to be that we remain at similar levels of 23K+. This can happen in case of a major global catastrophe or some internal disruption in India. (Both are worst case scenarios). The reason we might not fall below these levels is that we have a strong rule of law, India as of now is not aligned to any global power and has become leader of the Global south so in case of conflict we might not grow but we by all means will not fall below a certain level. Since 2005 Nifty has gone below Mid channel support only on two occasions once in sub prime crisis in 2008 and once during Covid 19 outbreak. Even if we fall below Mid channel support we mostly will bounce back very strongly. Thus the indications of all time chart of Nifty seem that India will remains a bull run for a long long time to come. If we believe the current trend within this decade that is before 2030 Nifty touching or crossing 50K also remains a fair possibility. So invest in equity, Educate yourself, learn Techno-funda analysis. Reading The Happy Candles Way To Wealth creation my book which is available on Amazon in Paperback and Kindle version can be a good beginning for you. All the best! Happy Investing.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Long Term Analysis of Nifty my observations and a conclusion.The chart above is the chart of Nifty 50 since 1991. This chart here tells a few stories. I will tell you my version of these stories or observations you can derive your own conclusions from them: 1) India is a continuous bull market. There are blips due to Micro and Macro reasons but the chart keeps moving forward in the parallel channel. We are in the upper half of the channel since 2005 indicative of an economy that is moving forward and GDP that is continuously growing. There are couple of times when the market went into the lower half of the channel once was during the 2008 Sub-prime crisis and once during the COVID19 global crisis. Lot of countries of the world have still not come out of the trauma but we bounce back each time. This tells us about strength of our nation and our economy. 2) There is lot more room to grow before we hit the channel top resistance. Even in case of some major political event or market correction. We can get the mid channel support and the support of Mother line 50 Months EMA. 3) Relative Strength index is a lagging indicator used by a lot of analyst to check if the market is overbought or oversold. As per my observation over the years. We start to enter the overbought territory once the index is above 70. RSI above 80 is indicative of a market that is overbought. Similarly when the RSI levels are below 30 we enter the oversold territory and When RSI is below 20 we are in the highly oversold territory. Now if you look at the chart carefully each time monthly RSI of Nifty has gone near / above / substantially above 80 levels there has been a correction in the market. Some corrections have been large some not so substantial but inevitably market has corrected. Right now RSI of Nifty is 78.94. The levels to watch out for reversal / Consolidation / correction in my opinion can be anywhere between 79.88 and 91.35. I am not trying to scare you or predict a doomsday scenario, I am just presenting historic data in front of you. 4) Market can remain irrational for period of time beyond human comprehension. Market can remain irrational more than an investor can remain rational. So while we ride the upwave changing sectors and changing our stories and choices shuffling between small and mid and large caps do not forget to put in your stop losses and trailing stop losses. Stop losses are our friends that protect our capital and trailing stop losses are our friends that protect our profits. While we use them it can happen that a stock takes your trailing stop loss and again bounces back to huge upside but it is fine, either we learn or we win. If you have the capital you can invest again. If you will not have the capital it is an irreversible loss. Conclusion: Stay Positive but be cautious. Use stop losses with discipline and trailing stop losses generously. The chart shows that history repeats. The chart shows that India is a continuous bull market. The chart shows that long term investor will always win if he has discipline and follows a process in stock selection, profit booking and staying vigilant.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty What ifs? it is 2004 again / seats are close to 400. Last phases of election are going on the result will be declared on 4th June the talk of the town is what will happen to Nifty if election is won by someone who is expected to win the general elections in India and what will happen if the results are unexpected. We can not predict elections and we can not predict how the Nifty will behave but certainly the charts which are representations of human emotions tell us a story and give us projections which we have seen are very close to being accurate. We have taken the help of Fibonacci retracement and parallel channel to help us understand where human emotions can lead Nifty to. Scenario 1) 2004 (History repeats itself)(Thunder seldom strikes twice in the same place but what if?) Let us talk about unexpected scenario like what happened in 2004. In this case market will definitely market will take a hit. The support levels for Nifty in such a case will be 20391. 20391 happens to be our channel bottom additionally it is also a Fibonacci support. If the Nifty falls below 20391 which it potentially can as investor emotions rather than valuations will take precedence the next support will be at 18688. In case 18688 will not hold (which is unlikely) worst case scenario as of now is Mother line support 50 Months EMA is at 17358. (This is what chart tells me as of now). In case of hung parliament / policy paralysis / War like situation at border and major internal strife Nifty may even fall to 15471.) In short there will be a lot of wealth erosion initially but nevertheless market will stabilize and upward journey will definitely begin once again if the euphoria of loss settles down. As companies will adjust / adapt and keep performing. The show will go on. When Trump lost US experts were saying that US market will have a free fall but against all odds US markets saw new highs in Biden term. Always remember that markets are unpredictable. Scenario 2) Seats are close to 350 or 400. The Euphoria and mad valuations in some stock might continue for a while but surely there will be Profit Booking fall sooner than later. The Major Nifty Resistance is near 23608 which also happens to be a mid channel resistance. That can be a potential point of profit booking. If we get a closing above 23608 which is less likely in near term, but you never say never. Or whenever in future we get a closing above 23608. This will open the doors for long term target of 27K. In 4/5 years time the best case scenario seems to be Nifty between 27 and 30K. Scenario 3) Seats are between 250 and 300. It will be victory or close to victory nevertheless it has potential to damage emotions of the investors and profit booking cycle can begin right then and there. 21376 or 20391 is possible even in such a scenario. Eventually when dust will settle and valuations are affordable again Nifty will restart it's journey towards 23608 in this case. I hope that the above Technical analysis will help you in bracing yourself for impact on D-day that is 4th June. Even if the landing is going to be smooth airlines always asks us to wear seat belts. In cars also we wear seat belts for safety. On bike we are supposed to wear helmets. What are all these equipment for? Safety. Safety mechanism of Stock market is Stop loss and Trailing stop loss. Keep them in a proper place whether it is scenario 1, 2 or 3. It will save you in case of scenario 1 or 3. Incase it is scenario 2 some of your stop losses may be hit and then the stock will run upward but remember it will be loss in profit. Loss in profit is better than loss. No one in the world has become a pauper by keeping stop losses. Disclaimer: There is a chance of biases including confirmation bias, information bias, halo effect and anchoring bias in this write-up. Investment in stocks, derivatives and mutual funds is subject to market risks, please consult your investment advisor before taking financial decisions. The data, chart and other information provided above is for the purpose of analysis and is purely educational in nature. The names of the stocks or index levels of spot Nifty mentioned in the article are for the purpose of education and analysis only. Purpose of this article is educational. Please do not consider this as a recommendation of any sorts.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
New Record But How Far can The Rally Stretch? Blockbuster rally makes it a festive Makar Sankranti, Uttarayan, Bihu, Lohri and Pongal for investors but how far can this rally stretch is the question? I will try to answer the question based on Technical analysis. On the onset let me tell you that predicting exact top and exact bottom in a short term is a very difficult task but The candle today has opened the door that leads us towards 22326 which is a Fibonacci resistance level. Fibonacci resistances are really little difficult to cross and it will require full force of bulls to do so. If 22326 is crossed the next resistance can be near 22769 and 23119. Immediate resistance for Nifty will be at 22115. Supports on the lower side for Nifty are at 21952, 21716 (strong support), 21474 and finally 20928. Closing below 20928 the Nifty can fall to the levels of 19624.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty Long Term Analysis, Observations and Conclusion. Nifty Long Term Outlook: (Little Long message but must read analysis for all connected to stock market). Nifty seems to be moving pretty solidly since 2019 in the long term channel shown in the chart. We have also intersected the chart with fibonacci supports and resistances for the Nifty. The candlesticks used are monthly. The Channel starts from Mid 2019 and extends upto 2026. Top considered for Fibonacci retracement is the pre-covid high and bottom is Covid low. This comprehensive chart gives us various scenarios to study. The same are depicted as under: a) Nifty is trying to sustain above the mid channel resistance. If the same can be sustained most part of 2024 will be engulfed by the bull run, barring some significantly negative macro or micro event. b) Considering there is a political stability in the country at least for next 2 to 3 years the best case scenario for Nifty in couple of years time seems to be near 30K+ and worst case scenario seems to be near 24K+. c) Next long term Fibonacci resistances seem to be near 22268 and 24305 respectively. d) Fibonacci supports for Nifty seem to be near 20389 and 18687. e) 50 months EMA for Nifty right now is at 16468 this should be a major support (Mostly Nifty can go there only if there is some global catastrophe or some unlikely event like party expected to win Lok Sabha 2024 loses hands down etc. Observations: 1) Mid and Small cap have been relatively doing well in recent past coming 2 years can be good for Large cap stocks. 2) It seems that there will be overall growth but secots like Pharma/Healthcare, Infrastructure, FMCG, Capital Goods, Banking and Financials might fare better than IT and Defense have had a long run and might relax a bit for a while. 3) New themes like Clean Energy, Aero-space some other breakthrough technology can disrupt the market space completely. 4) India with it's assertive foreign policy can create and consolidate it's place in global manufacturing. 5) Over all situation seems to be investor friendly. India is in the sweet spot of Global economy. History says that 2 to 5 Trillion USD journey for any of the global economy has had potential to unleash wealth creation for the investors. Conclusion: We feel those who can lean Techno-Funda Investing / Know Techno-Funda investing will benefit the most during this wealth creation phase. Question: So how many of you want to learn Techno-funda Analysis and become Aatmanirbhar?
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty (Market Outlook) (Diwali to Diwali Outlook)Nifty will continue to consolidate but remain bullish in the coming 12 months the range in which we expect Nifty to remain till next Diwali will be 18800 to 22000. Worst case scenario seems to be 17800 and the best case scenario seems to be Nifty going towards 22K. Midcap will remain bullish if FII inflow continues and Large caps are also expected to grow decently between 7 to 15%. Large caps will be a safer bet for conservative investors as volatility will be expected. Volatility is expected in the index as it is an election year and unresolved global issues are still trying to play a role however, India should remain rising and shining star of global economy.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment