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Weekly SPX outlook ending Sep 15SPX 4450 is the key line in the sand now. A head and shoulders is forming on the 2hr and based on option flow could complete early to mid week. Bear: Below 4450 with a target of 4400 and below that 4350-4300. Bull: Above 4450 with a target of 4500 and then 4530-4560. We also have CPI and PPI this week. To add it is also OpEx - wonderful. Could potentially take SPX 4465c and 4465p 09/18 on Sunday when SPX opens @ roughly 29.00 each. PT would be 90-100.00 on either leg.
SP:SPX
by DarkpoolGhost
Nasdaq Futures - Are You Prepared For Red September?The last ten days of price action produced a retrace of significant magnitude that was very kind to institutional friends who were net long from early June. That is to say, what has transpired since all three indexes took their January of 22 failure pivot levels in early July has been more consistent with an optimal short entry combining with a bull trap, combining with a chance for big players who were either still full long or partially long to mitigate their losses and exit their positions. But retail, especially those who foolishly follow the messages emitted on social media, regard price action as "confirmation" that we're on our way to a new bull market. The macro economic situation is that the Federal Reserve has reiterated that while it may slow the pace of hikes going forward, depending on economic data, there is no intention whatsoever to pivot. When you consider the above in light of monthly candles trading so far above their long-term trendline, big big danger flags should be going off in your head. The reason is that Fed rates connect to bond yields. Bonds also have a feature where as they pay more interest the price also goes down, way down. What this means is that there's huge alpha to generate for big funds and big banks who trade very long time frames in selling equities at a high price, buying bonds at high yields and low prices, and sitting on that position instead of taking risks on commodities and equities while the world is in a really bad situation. Weekly candles show us more clearly that significant areas of concern that should be retraced to before any further upside is rationally thought to be on deck were not achieved before the bounce. A big problem facing the markets at present is the existence of the Q3 "JPM Collar," which I discuss here: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' It's worth noting that JPM, which sold calls with a strike of 4,665 at the end of July, has not been in the red on that portion of their position yet, although whoever bought them has certainly made money since price approached 4,665 very quickly after purchase. The bigger component of their trade is that the most significant bank on this planet is long 15,800 puts with a strike of 4,225 that have never been in the money since they were purchased. Expiry date is September 29. Because of time decay, for JPM to break even on that portion of its position, we would need prices approach 4,000 and the VIX to push over 20 to pump implied volatility premium, and all in only a few weeks. And although this is a Nasdaq call, one index fuels all three indexes. A problem with thinking the indexes have bottomed is that while the Nasdaq may have rebalanced a gap before the pump, the SPX did not: And even less did the Dow, which has traded like a heavy bag of rocks despite having the strongest recovery from last October's dump of any of the three indexes. The algos have a habit of making all three indexes do the same thing before the page really turns. You're also dealing with a worldwide economic and geopolitical situation where everything is heavily balanced by a horsehair. And that horsehair is the Chinese Communist Party, which looks like it will take Xi Jinping to its grave with it. The CCP is about to collapse, and it will happen overnight, in the middle of the night, and there will be a lot of gap downs. The reason the market is still trading in a structured way is simply because the U.S. Empire and the globalist faction, which wants to install the CCP's Zero-COVID Social Credit system worldwide, ramble on about "War With Taiwan" all the time because the intention is to take control of China when the CCP falls using a Taiwan-based proxy. "But the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry." The problem for all of humanity is the 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners by the CCP and former Chairman Jiang Zemin starting July 20, 1999. Organ harvesting, rape, murder, and things worse than organ harvesting have never been beneath the CCP, and unfortunately, the rest of the world who has been funneling blood to the Party all these years to keep it afloat so it can keep on lying to the world. And so what I can tell is arranged is that we dump hard into the end of Q3, and then it seems to me that we rally in Q4, probably back towards the index highs, with all of 2024 being an economic nightmare. Donald Trump looks like he's going to prison and won't be able to save you. Not that Donald Trump is capable of saving anyone, lol. So Biden will win by default because nobody is going to vote for DeSantis or Vivek, and the socialist spending schemes and the crashing of the world economy is arranged. But because the CCP is on the brink of falling and China is not a country that any outside forces have ever been able to capture in its 5,000 year history, perhaps before the year is out we will see the rally truncated sharply. "Watch Out For Fire." The call: Short Nasdaq now anticipating a ruthlessly bloody September, close under 14,000. Go long under 14,000. Close when you have a lot of profits and cash out. Brokerages aren't going to be processing withdrawals anymore than Binance is right now when the CCP collapses. Everyone will be trying to run for their lives. It's very dangerous. Nobody should have supported Marxist-Leninism, the CCP, and the persecution of Falun Gong's true cultivators. But they did. And the consequences are not something people can bear.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by LordWrymouth
13
NQ1!, Market Keeps on TeasingIn the most recent action the price has managed to get back into the upside channel. Whether there is a real demand or just lack of supply remains to be seen. As of now the price has retested the 61.8% retracement of the bearish swing and failed to accept that level on first test. My focus is on the next level below the 50%: if it holds we may see the upside continuation to the channel mid, if not than the 23.6% is the next downside target. In the environment with high level of uncertainty focusing on small areas is a mechanism to protect yourself from a headache. 09/02/2023
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
1
NQ1!, Failed Attempt to Regain ControlA volatile week but no structural changes, or changes in the directionality. It seems the path to downside has been painted. But when it comes to the market nothing is guaranteed. One needs to think from the change or no change of current context. As of now, the H&S remain broken, the upside channel is broken. Nevertheless, my scenario 1 is a horizontal development (consolidation) to build enough energy to either regain the channel bottom or resume the downside. A premature move up, thanks to one company earnings, had failed but don't assume it is over for the buyers. My scenario 2 is a push lower, could be premature as well. Assumptions/predictions are the source of frustration and losses. Let the market show which scenario is in play and tag along with no questions asked. 08/26/2023
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
Nasdaq Futures - The Trend Is Your Friend, Until The EndFor whatever reason, the thing about traders is they don't like to go short and they don't like to buy puts. This is primarily because of being conditioned by the market makers during bull runs and bull impulses that it's just literally lighting money on fire. And so once a real correction begins, some people buy the dip the entire way down, averaging down, dollar cost averaging, and really get hurt. This is especially true during that initial phase where the saying "The trend is your friend, until the end," applies. There was a lot of enthusiasm on the social media last night and today about shorts "being made to cover" ahead of Jackson Hole, and for all criticism of this early enthusiasm aside, the logic actually isn't wrong. Right now we retraced to a key gap, took out two lows along the way, and this is the best bounce there's been on the SPX and Nasdaq in a week. What we did is receive, on no news, a 2.5% bounce heading into the August 25 Federal Reserve Jackson Hole event, where Jerome Powell will hold a press conference and issue policy that will dictate the next 12 months to the entire world. The problem with Jackson Hole from a game theory perspective is both that it triggered a mega dump last year, while this year, especially if you've bothered to take even a cursory read of the FOMC press conference transcripts published on the Wall Street Journal's website, there's not a single reason to believe Powell is going to say anything about an oncoming or imminent pivot or change in policy. Pivots, generally, come at the bottoms of the market, for one. Next, inflation, in reality, is not as bad as it was before, but when Powell tells you 2% is the target is the target is the target and you're getting excited about 3.8%, keep in mind that 80% is a lot. If you had 80% on NVDIA you'd have $300 a share. If NVDIA did a 100:1 split you'd have 30 cents a share representing an 80 percent move. This is how math works and it's why 3.8% is still really, really far away from 2.00%. The second biggest problem the markets have is the situation with China, Xi Jinping, and the Chinese Communist Party. Whatever the fundamental cause truly is, the economy in China is in big time, escalating trouble. Have you looked at the Hangseng Tech Index? It's dropped 17% in a month. Imagine if the SPX dropped 800 points in September and the noise and chaos that would cause. And this is the world's most critical country, one of the largest economies, an economic manufacturing and spending hub, and the place that formerly had the largest population. Everything in this world is tied to China because it is the hub and the rest of the world is the spoke. In Chinese, the country is called "Zhongguo," literally "Central Kingdom" for a reason. What everything is portending is an upcoming very public disaster for the CCP and Xi Jinping. That disaster, however, may be Xi Jinping throwing away the CCP in the middle of the night. Xi dumping the CCP will cause a significant Earthquake and Tsunami in the financial markets. But the after effects may actually cause what appears to be a boom, at least at first. But whether President Xi does or does not dump the CCP, the 24-year-long organ harvesting persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners, is a sin so egregious that it will simply not go unanswered. It is a skeleton in the closet hanging over the head of very literally almost every major corporation, billionaire, and government on this entire planet. It's something you really have to educate yourself with, and I would recommend reading the Minghui website and looking at Shen Yun Performing Arts and Shen Yun Creations to learn more as soon as possible. So when it comes to the Nasdaq, is this a rally that you can go long on? Have we bottomed? What we experienced today is a no-news Monday after a raid on the low following August options expiry on Friday. If price action revisits 15,250 you still cannot say we have bottomed. And then the problem is, this "bottomed" can simply include a run to 16,000 or a breaker-raid to 16,500. Of course, a 5% move on indexes is well worth going long, never short, but too many equities and all the commodities do not indicate that it's really time to go long in any meaningful capacity. The most painful scenario for BOTH bulls AND bears is this: 1. Dumping hard into October 2. Retracing it all into December 3. 2024 opens as a disaster that only DONALD TRUMP can save us from, if he manages to escape 295,999,999 years in jail for Xeeeeeeeeeting about election fraud. I say the above to point out to you what total balderdash the prevailing narratives and brainwashing are and that you should really look at things with clear eyes. It's only us small follower accounts who don't get promoted very often that even have the chance to tell you the Truth.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by LordWrymouth
1
Snowflake - Is It Time To Stop Gambling On Chop?Snowflake, a Nasdaq company, has earnings looming post-market, which has IV on weekly calls and puts juiced to 150%. Yet people are still gambooling on the next big instawin. The problem is you'll blow your account and won't need TradingView anymore and won't be able to have any fun in your community. Really, a far better proposition if you want 5 and 8:1 odds on things that are like 10 or 20:1 against to hit is to deposit on a sportsbook and put the same risk into a 3-bet parlay on late season MLB. If you're right you'll even get paid the same day and not have to mess around with charts and bars all day. Snowflake is one of the tech sector dump casualties, but has never bounced. The monthly shows very clearly we're simply sitting in $90 worth of range spanning almost a year and a half. And while $90 in range is pretty good, the problem is that it doesn't pump. There will eventually be a change in market structure and the most likely target is under $110. Weekly bars show us that the May low has been taken out before earnings, and this is a factor that is not consistent with bank/fund sponsorship to take out the highs. Which hints to us that the largest players who can move the market of a company that is still valued at $49 billion while printing $650~ million in quarterly revenue are probably targeting the bottom of "the flag" and not the top. While the failure swing at $190 forms a double top and becomes a target, the problem is that everything is set up, with Jackson Hole as the Federal Reserve and the world's most critical financial policy decision pending on Friday, to continue to correct and correct violently into the fourth quarter. Nasdaq Futures - The Trend Is Your Friend, Until The End Moreover, a lot of the worldwide economic situation is being heavily driven by what's going on Mainland China with Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party he still hasn't thrown away. Word in the Western media is that the regime's de facto state run corporations, for whatever reason, are sitting on something like $3 or $4 trillion in real estate debt that's about to explode in their hands. There's still the problem of natural disasters like the Beijing floods, economic calamities like the International Rules Based Order jawing and chattering about "de-risking" from China, and the impact of the virus that has claimed many, many more people than the few hundred thousand the CCP has officially reported to John Hopkins for the official trackers. Worst of all is the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners looms over the head of the Party. Even though Xi isn't responsible for the persecution and hasn't participated, it was done by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and the toad faction nested in Shanghai-Babylon, Xi is the one with his head in the prisoners' box because he's now the Chairman of the Party. And on top of that is an epidemic of arsons masquerading as climate change that have burned to death tens of thousands of hectares of trees and forests and their associated plants and animals. This world is out of control, but it's not allowed to stay out of control for long. And while it's on the brink, you're being told to get long by furus, Discord, Telegram, Wechat, Stocktwits, and Reddit, and are happy to take the bait, because you don't see the danger. So here's what's up for SNOW on earnings. A really likely theory is that it doesn't do much at all because the option sellers will just hold the price where it is in advance of Jackson Hole, let IV decline, collect all the premium from you as everything expires worthless on Friday and laugh. And somewhere along the way, Snowflake will have a $12 retrace to bring in breakup traders and take out short sellers to $165. But this $165 will be another form of optimal short entry to target the $100 mark before Q4 expires. If there's to be upside on this stock, based on the length of time and range of the chop and the specific price action amid the overall market and macro conditions, it would be a lot more likely to come after the lows get taken. Be careful.
NYSE:SNOW
by LordWrymouth
SPY - Are You Prepared If We Haven't Bottomed?When I made my July 29 call on the ES SPX Futures here: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg We had anticipated that a retrace to the highs or a raid on the highs was on deck. And yet throughout August, price action has been extremely bearish across all commodities, indexes, equities, and bonds. We very suddenly went from talk of a new bull market to a dip that doesn't rip. In my August 5 call on QQQ, I note that the January of '22 fail pivots, which ended the bull market, that were taken out on all three indexes have not been raided on the ETFs. Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip? And although today's August 18 options expiry price action took out a key low, the bounce we got was also lethargic. On the 25th, the Federal Reserve will hold the press conference for the Jackson Hole event, which will not involve a rate hike, but a forward-looking statement of economic policy by Jerome Powell. Last year, this day hallmarked the nuke of the markets. This year, it may very well do the same when the bond market has to accept that 6% Fed Funds Rates are on deck before '24 and 6.5% may be on deck before Q2. The other bearish catalyst is the rapidly degenerating economic condition in Mainland China, which is still ruled by the Chinese Communist Party Xi Jinping has yet to throw away. I've heard that Evergrande is defaulting and that's put something like 1/3rd of a trillion dollars of commercial real state into the fire. The Yuan isn't in good shape. The whole country is in terrible shape because of the effects of the pandemic. The losses are a lot worse than what you see reported by the CCP to John Hopkins and presented on places like Our World In Data. This is really the key cornerstone of everything going on in the world right now. I have been warning about this ad nauseum in everything I post, and I think people will begin to understand what I have meant, and why I have said it, as changes in this world unfold in the next six months. China is a key market for Apple, and Apple is something of a pillar of the U.S. equities market, and yet, after the big earnings correction, it seems as if $198 was the ultimate top. Apple - So, You've Been Taught To Buy That Dip... And Tesla. with its Shanghai Gigafactory in Babylon and its reliance on the Chinese market, has just been an absolute disaster. Tesla - What To Expect Until September? Traders are often slow to react. "The trend is your friend, until the end," they say, and correctly. When we look at SPY on the monthly, we see that it's taken a monthly low for the first time since February. And when we look at it on the weekly, we get even greater clarity. And although sub 4,400 really ought to have been a place that it bounces to retrace and retest the tops at 4,650, the fact is that price action is not showing a willingness to bounce and take out upside targets. So far, what it has told us is that longers are trapped. And if longers remain trapped even after we take out the July low, it's safe to posit that the next target to the downside would be the June low at ~$416. "$416 what a fairy tale!" is what a lot of people say, and yet this is only 5% away from where we are now. Only 200 more points down before there's a chance of a possible reversal. In other words, these targets are not that far away. If they really are traded to, it becomes increasingly unlikely that there's going to be any kind of a retrace to the top, considering JP Morgan is some 15,800 contracts long on 4,225 SPX puts expiring Sept. 29 that have never been in the money. And so I want to say to everyone that the sooner you can flip your bias from bull to bear, perhaps the better. It may not be until Q4 that we see a bounce with how things are unfolding.
AMEX:SPYShort
by LordWrymouth
1
NQ - Nasda Test/Retest, now down.NQ had a phenomenal run-up since yesterday. It was hard to find any sign of weakness. In the 15 min. TF I found the correct Fork to apply that gives me any usable information about price. 1. The Shiff-Fork projects price to the upside, but also expose the fact that price fell out of the projection below the L-MLH. 2. Price stopped at the HVN. Or better, the Algos bought price at that level (violett line). 3. Price had it's first "Test" of the L-MLH, and soon after the second one, interfering with the TL from way above. Such "coincidence" I call "Confluence". 4. My Scalping filters, the Indicators also signaled that it's time to give it a go. 5. Finally I observed the Bid/Ask Volume and saw large order got thrown at the Bid. This is my ticket to ride and I'm short the market.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Tuesday, August 22 Market Update - BTC, ETH, DXY, SPX, NQGeneral Market update focusing on Bitcoin. Bitcoin breakdown is still not being supported with significant spot buying as the March dump was, overall volume is low. ETH looks much worse however has the ability to gain some local levels and move higher. Both BTC and ETH are ranging and building liquidity. The SP500 and the Nasdaq are still rallying and have the ability to regain significant levels, however, higher timeframe they are both overdue for a retracement. Locally they are having an upside bounce but generally and higher timeframe they are still having a retracement. The Dollar Currency Index is still strong continuing it's rally from mid July. the DXY is generally looked at as having inverse correlation to TradFi and Crypto with both experiencing highs as DXY made its mid July lows. The DXY is currently at resistance from the Yearly Open and any gain of that could indicate further downside.
by TrendmasterOfficial
Nasdaq Ready For Push Up?Looking at the nasdaq futures market we can see price has been down trending for approximately the last month. While this down trend will probably continue a significant squeeze / retrace of the trend at some point should be expected. The question is when would we expect to see this correction. This is an hourly line chart on the log scale for micro nasdaq futures "MNQ" and we can see price is currently approaching a significant level of support. The last local push down has a very impulisive 5 wave structure to it causing a falling wedge to form with a potential reversal point right at our significant support level of $14,850. Given a clear reversal signal at this level a retace of the current down swing will be likely with two significant levels above to watch for a reversal and continuation to the downside for potentialy much lower prices. As price has been dropping it has formed a descending channel with a target area from our current level at the 15-15100 area. Also measuring from the top of the swing to this potential bottom the 50% retrace level at 15,350 is lining up very nicely with what would create a much larger head and shoulders pattern. Trade Well.................
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by Degen-Dynasty
Apple - So, You've Been Taught To Buy That Dip...Apple has really been, perhaps arguably, the key reason the bear market rally has been as extreme as it has in 2023. Looking back to January, there really has not been even a single genuinely bearish day. But with Q2 earnings as a catalyst, we now have signs of a genuine and significant reversal pattern, and at an all time high. It's very evident on monthly bars. Weekly bars are even more obvious, showing that today, we took the July low, and there's no luft to the bounce. Long is a bad trade and short is now a good trade, is what we're being told. "The trend is your friend, until the end" is a saying with a lot of wisdom. If you can figure out you've ran into "the end" in the first few hours, then you really will be a lucky person. A lot of people may be about to blow their accounts trying to buy that dip, which they've been conditioned to do so like Pavlov's dog and his bell. Apple is a company that's maintained close ties, all these years, to the Chinese Communist Party. You should always remember there is a difference between "China" and "the CCP." China is a 5,000 year old country with a culture of dynasties that were imparted since the Great Flood by the Divine. The CCP is a 100-year-old Red Demon whose existence was arranged to destroy humanity, the Earth, and the Cosmos itself. Xi Jinping has ruled both China and the CCP since 2012, and it's both a blessing and a curse for him. If Xi isn't intelligent enough to go Gorbachev-style and overthrow the Party in the middle of the US night, then Xi will go down in history as the leader of the rogue regime at the end, and will be responsible for everything it has done in history. This includes the 24-year-long persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual cultivators. Although the persecution was started July 20, 1999 by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and conducted by the toad's faction all these years, and Xi has been killing and bankrupting the rogue faction's minions in the Anti-corruption Campaign, the problem with being tagged as the CCP's leader is that the head is always the first thing you cut off with the guillotine. So, here's the thing for Apple. I expect Apple to take the $176.93 July low, probably sometime next week, based on how the markets are reacting. From there, we may see a retrace. What this will indicate is that Apple's market, for the first time in 2023, has finally shifted bearish. What this is the canary in the coalmine for is a significant correction. You can actually see this kind of pattern play out strongly in Amazon's monthly bars, which I comment on in their earnings pattern below: Amazon - Greed, Just Like Speed, Kills I anticipated that SPX was due for numbers as low as 4,420~ in the below call: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg And so the setup with Apple is this: Short any bounce, with a target of $174. Then, don't get greedy. Anticipate a bounce into the August 18 options expiry. But that bounce may be no better than a flirt with $190. From there, you can consider it a "Godshort" with a target below the 2022 $124 low. And what I want to say is that if Apple has topped, everything is topped. Everyone is greedy and blinded by greed, buying highs without fear. Buying highs without fear. Buying highs without fear! "We are fearful when others are greedy, and greedy only when others are fearful" is something Warren Buffett is notable for stating. And although Buffett doesn't qualify as any kind of a good man, the Truth is the Truth, even if a toad states it. Be careful. Things are about to change extremely quickly. Can you keep up? Can you enlighten to it? Missing the chance, there may be no further opportunities.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by LordWrymouth
Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip?Greed quickly became extreme at the end of July, and the beginning of August has severely punished bulls, who are still buying the dip and buying the dip. The July high on Nasdaq happened to occur along with the Dow and the SPX in that all three indexes swept out the January '22 pivot that amounted to a rejection that ended that unprecedented bull market. Looking at monthly bars, you can see how extreme this '23 bear market rally has been, and how far the Nasdaq is above its long-term trendlines, how the COVID points were never tested on SPX or Nasdaq, but were raided on the Dow... And you get some perspective on the weekly bars. Here's some key problems for bulls: 1. Equities don't like high interest rates. Big money is needed to move markets and that money likes to seek safe yield. When rates are really high, bonds are really cheap to buy, and money tends to flow into them instead of equities. 2. This means equities rallies in high interest rate environments are bear market rallies by definition. Smart money pumps and sells equities to fuel a buying spree in bonds. 3.With Fed rates pushing 5.5% and there being no chance of cuts until inflation goes from 4% to 2% sustained on a long term basis, ask yourself what really is the bull case that's going to lead to new all time highs? When you're dealing with multiple fundamental factors that are bearish, but price action is bullish, you absolutely have to be cautious, or else you're likely to get gibed. Moreover, geopolitical problems are really serious. The biggest problem is the situation in Mainland China with a Chinese Communist Party that is about to fall while the Western propaganda outlets report on absolutely nothing of significance. All the talk about "Taiwan War" is to make a pariah of Xi Jinping and his faction of Chinese nationalists. What all the globalists are really preparing for is how to take control of China when the CCP falls. To do this, they need to position a man that has been groomed to take control of the country, and this will be done using the Republic of Taiwan as a proxy. But "the best laid plans of mice and men" is an issue. Overhanging all of humanity's head like the Sword of Damocles is the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners by the CCP and former Chairman Jiang Zemin's faction. Although Xi has been killing toadJiang's toad faction for over a decade with the Anti-Corruption Campaign, the problem is that Xi is still the Chairman of the Party, and all of its sins in 100 years hang over his neck like a noose. If Xi is smart, he'll overthrow the Party Gorbachev style. And if he isn't, he'll go down with it. But either way, when the Party goes, the persecution will become the #1 issue that all of humanity will have to face, for the sin is extreme. Equities markets will not be bullish those days, and you truly will be in a new paradigm. So here's the short term price action on the Nasdaq. End of July and early August price action confirms that the top, for now, is in. This means that dips are no longer buyable. It's only that you can short the rips. This will remain true until a certain downside objective is met, and when this becomes true, that downside objective is pretty much exclusively where an old low is. We have two areas of concern for lower prices. One is the June low at 14,250. Although I don't expect the market makers to take this point before September, it certainly is possible. More significant is the 14,850 pivot from the end of June. This number happens to result in a raid on the psychological 15,000 level, there's a gap nearby, and it can serve as a useful level to bounce for heading into the end of August. Keep in mind that August's monthly options expire on the 18th, which leave a solid 9 trading days remaining before the end of September. While you might feel that these targets are too far away to be realistic, keep in mind that dumping to 14,100 from where markets closed on Friday is really only 8%. 8% on QQQ amounts to like $25 and isn't that big of a deal compared to what some other three digit stuff does in a single day. And maybe you really don't believe it either way. But take a look at Apple, the most important stock on the market. It's showing you all the signs that you'd ever need to see that it's either topped or will raid $200 once before going down: Apple - So, You've Been Taught To Buy That Dip... Same with Microsoft Microsoft - Is The Top Already In? Same with Netflix Netflix - I Hope You Like Catching Knives The scary thing about tops is that the first time you get the sell off, the sell off tends to hurt longs, scare them out, and then you get a bounce that flirts with old highs. And that pattern leads to the "sell low, buy back higher" phenomenon. Which results in people buying the tops, hard, and permabears missing their chance to be short and missing the entire move down. But if you understand what's going on, you can capitalize on the early downside, the early bounce, and Godshort the top and ride the trend down. It's hard to do because of human emotions and the interference of long periods of time. But the wisdom is right here to do it. A potential timeline for the downside to finish is literally as early as Wednesday, because August CPI is on deck for Thursday. Another option is that CPI leads to the blowout under 15,000 and the bounce is into the end of August. Beware the JPM Collar. Expiring September 29, they're long on SPX puts with a strike of 4,200. Just ask yourself if America's most keystone systemically important bank is going to be expiring worthless like retail traders do.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by LordWrymouth
QQQ - Is It Rally Time? Or Are You Too Early?I have an open call on the Nasdaq NQ CME Futures that theorizes that the markets may have topped in terms of the perpetual bull run, but that we may also get a rip back towards/at new highs. Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip? The process has been quite slow to play out so far, but the most dangerous thing for bulls with NQ is that 15,000 has not yet been broken. And yet we are rallying. Many people have been pining for new all time highs, and yet every equity has slowed down or been significantly bearish in the last two weeks. It's worth noting key macro points: 1. Fed rates are looking at tasting 6% by the end of the year 2. Jerome Powell says cuts aren't even considered until inflation becomes half of what it is 3. Dude said it will probably take years for this 4. Bond price goes down as yield goes up 5. Money leaves equities to seek yield in this environment 6. Divergences from the above are short signals, not buy for all time high signals And then there is the ever-accelerating collapse of the economy in Mainland China under the Communist Party. Things for the CCP, and for its leader Xi Jinping, are getting worse by the day. On top of economic problems the Party is facing are a litany of social problems, and the recent bout of exceptional and unprecedented flooding ravaging the country. The losses from the pandemic, from the economic calamity, and the natural disasters have weakened the Party significantly. A weak CCP can never invade Taiwan, and international spy agencies will all know this, and so whenever you're hearing "Taiwan War" you should immediately be suspect. What if the idea is to take control of Mainland China via Taiwan as the CCP falls, instead? What will happen to the international markets that day? Will they go up, or will they crash? So, here's a look at QQQ, the Nasdaq ETF that you can trade 0-Day options on. From the looks of today's price action it would seem as if the bottom was in. And it may very well be. This is a really key point. Friday may really well have been the bottom and we may be looking at a reversal. But there's some key points to consider for bulls. One is that in the Nasdaq call, I point out that NQ raided its January of 2022 failure pivot before the correction. QQQ has not done that yet, and this leads us to believe that $390 is a very likely target in the immediate future. Remember that upside should happen fast, since JP Morgan is bigly long SPX 4,200 puts that expire on September 29, and has been underwater since the quarter rolled over at the end of July. SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' However, it's also very strange if we're going to see a bounce as massive as $390, that the end of July failure swing didn't result in at least one downside stop being taken out. Note that today, Monday, was a day with no news drivers, while there is retail sales and Empire Manufacturing Index Tuesday, FOMC minutes Wednesday, Unemployment Claims on Thursday, and no news driver on Friday, which is also monthly options expiry. The critical Jackson Hole Federal Reserve meeting is also August 23 and 24, next week. Last year, Jackson Hole is what started a major correction that lasted until October. So what to expect? Instead of a reversal in fortune being so easy, I would imagine we see a raid of QQQ $360/Nasdaq 14,900 this week before we bounce. After that, it will be long only until QQQ $385, is my trade thesis. But keep in mind $390 does not have to be taken. $385 is a potential area of reversal and $391 is an area that only has to print one contract before there's a correction. So, thanks for reading. The TL;DR is this Buy a raid under $360-355. Probably just under $360. Long only until $385. Get "Big Short" over $390 or on a reversal pattern between $385 and $388. Good luck.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by LordWrymouth
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