NQ Daily Analysis NQ Daily Analysis - Break and Retest of the 15050-14680 10-Day Range
I usually don't look at NQ as my primary focus is ES, but scrolling through my watchlist I stumbled across the old depiction I made of NQ trading in a range, and now we are here backtesting it. Could we be setting up for a break and retest or will this be a failed breakout and we start trading back inside the range? We are also building a bull flag shown by the purple trend lines so it wouldn't be surprising to see NQ continuing to fill out the flag.
With ES ~4350/SPY ~430 at a core level (imo) that'll need to hold to see more upside, coupled with NQ at a significant break and retest level, this puts more upside in play. Don't be stuck on one direction though. We have to be situationaly aware of world news and the econmic calendar this week as it will continue to bring volatility into play. I always focus on levels and technical analysis, while being mindful of contributing factors.
As always, manage your risk to reward ratios while we trade this upcoming week. Taking a short into NQ being at a break and retest daily level, on a higher time frame aspect, isn't the greatest risk to reward.
NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES
NASDAQ Hit the MA50 (4h). Will it hold?Nasdaq is on a correction leg after being rejected on the Falling Resistance of the Falling Wedge pattern, a little under the 0.786 Fibonacci level as the September 1st Lower High did.
It hit today the MA50 (4h) and that can generate a short term rebound.
Below that, the correction of the Wedge will be extended lower.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. Sell if the price closes a (1d) candle under the 0.382 Fibonacci level (as September 19th).
Targets:
1. 15200 (little over Fibonacci 0.618).
2. 14600 (over Support).
Tips:
1. The Falling Wedge keeps the medium term bearish. We need a crossing over Resistance (1) to restore the long term bullish trend of 2023.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
QQQ: 3 Falling Peaks at Bearish Shark PCZThe QQQ has been trading at the PCZ of this Bearish Shark for quite a while now and it has recently come back to make a 3rd Consecutive Lower High with Hidden Bearish Divergence on the RSI and looks to be ready to confirm it as a 3 Falling Peaks Pattern that I think would result in a major move down towards the 800 EMA or even lower down to the pre-2022 levels.
Key points for seasonality tracking Is the low in or notWe definitely saw a reaction after tapping into that daily FVG above.
I expected a retrace after that.
now we have to see if it finishes this as a small retracement or puts in a surprise new low for seasonality.
Price could retrace to and bounce off those FVG's or go past the last two lowest lows for a surprise.
We will know more after today and Monday.
these are the key points of interest I am watching.
Have a great weekend!
13 Oct Levels with POILevels I am watching for Friday- shown with daily FVG to be more clear about points of interest.
Dashed Black line is the 50% line of yesterdays move, denoting premium and discount.
Black heavy lines are yesterday's H/L
It is yet to be seen if the final October low is in.
It is possible to have slightly more expansion, with a deeper retracement beginning next week
or we could retrace tomorrow for a new lower low.
For intraday trading this does not matter as much. keep your eyes on strong points of interest such as weekly and daily FVG's, previous Days H/L
As always, we trade during specific times only.
happy trading!
have a great weekend!
𝗡𝗮𝘀𝗱𝗮𝗾 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $QQQ Daily. Keep it simple𝗡𝗮𝘀𝗱𝗮𝗾 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: NASDAQ:QQQ Daily. Keep it simple. Above line-in-sand ("LIS") of 373 a bull flag 🐂 breakout. Below risk lower to consolidate 🐻
$NQ_F TVC:NDQ NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:SOX $ES_F AMEX:SPY SP:SPX TVC:DXY NASDAQ:TLT TVC:TNX CBOE:VIX #Stocks
Nasdaq: Taken off 🚀The Nasdaq has now rallied strongly and has left its green target zone between 15 292 and 14 431 points. The next target is now the resistance at 16 062 points and a further rise to around 17 500 points, where we expect the high of the orange wave i. It is important to note, however, that it is also possible that the high was already set in July. This alternative scenario, to which we assign a 40% probability, would come into play in the event of a drop below the zone. The low of the orange wave alt.ii would then have to be in the orange target zone between 13 934 and 12 717 points.
NASDAQ Channel Down or Bullish Flag?Nasdaq (NDX) broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and has almost reached the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down pattern that started after the July 19 High. The 1D STOCH RSI Bearish Cross suggests that this is a sell opportunity on the short-term at least, towards 14900 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement level).
But what if this is not a Channel Down but a Bullish Flag pattern after a relentless 2023 price growth? In that case we will need to wait for confirmation in the form of a break-out above the last Lower High (and current Resistance level) at 15630. After that, we will buy the first pull-back below it and target the 16780 All Time High of November 2021, which interestingly enough is only a fraction below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, a standard technical target in case of Bullish Flag break-outs.
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NQ1! Supply and Demand Levels 10/10-10/11Link to chart: www.tradingview.com
Last week, our EOW targets were easily and beautifully hit. Great work team!
Crazy bull run that I was expecting to fill later this week, but it has done just that. We pushed close to our 3HR supply, and with this insane volatile news week, looking for this push into this area for either rejection or continuation.
With war, and more specifically the recent events from Russia v. Ukraine, you can see we had a few days of red before we ripped to the upside. I was looking for the same possible idea to play again for Israel v. Pakistan. I wish and pray for peace amongst us all, and to stop the pain that we share to each other.
For EOW Targets:
BULLS: 15470-15525, this would mean a push to 4HR R2 above and taking those heavy orders that lie within the 45m/1hr/3hr zone.
BEARS: 14953-15010, break of this (blue) trendline and a retracement of this impulsive move.
NASDAQ Short term Resistance sell but buy if 15520 breaks.Nasdaq / US100 is about to hit our second target (chart at the end) as it is approaching the Falling Resistance.
Our strategy was purely based on the identical patterns of July-August and September-October.
The index is close to a 4hour MA50-100 Bullish Cross, signalling the end of this uptrend.
We estimate a peak no more than 15350. If accompanied by a 4hour MACD Bearish Cross, sell and target 15050 on the short term (course of 4hour MA50).
If though the price crosses above Resistance A (15520), wait for a MA50 pull back and buy targeting 15930 (Resistance B).
Previous chart:
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Day Trade Market Condition oct 09, 2023 Happy ThanksgivingDay Trade Market Condition oct 09, 2023
levels for NQ ES CL BTC
watch the table left side for trade, right side for trend
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NASDAQ: Will it reverse to Bull or downtrend will make a new LowNasdaq is on two conflicting patterns on the short and long term. The Bullish Megaphone that drove it out of the Bear Cycle after the late 2022 Triple Bottom is still holding and closed last week with an emphatic rebound but at the same time so is the short term Falling Wedge that started the correction on the July 19th High. This conflict and medium term balance is why the 1D technical outlook is neutral (RSI = 48.115, MACD = -63.170, ADX = 38.959).
The 1D RSI may have held August's Support and we could have a Triple Bottom since June, not much different than the late 2022, but it is the 1D MA100 that will make all the difference. A two 1D candle close over it, will amplify the probabilities for a break of the Falling Wedge and long term bullish reversal, in which case we will target the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 16,050). If we don't see such 1D MA100 closing pattern, we will stay bearish, gradually aiming for the 1D MA200 (TP = 14,350).
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NQ1! Bearish ForecastAfter the very high non farm payroll data but slowing wage growth as well as the unemployment rate which is still in stable numbers, the increase at the end of last week showed that investors considered good economic conditions.
apart from fundamentals, from the technical perspectives a bullish candle was formed at the weekend, but by looking at these two aspects in addition to geopolitical conditions, oil, gold, Yield, Dxy and also after looking at the volume profile indicator I speculate that there will be a reversal and will break the channel
RUT/NDX ratio tells you to keep investing in tech!Something a little different today.
Was looking a some stock ratios and decided to regress the standard Russell 2000 against the risky technology index, the Nasdaq.
This RUT/NDX ratio has been inside a Channel Down since the Dotcom Bubble send it sky high, collapsing the tech sector.
The Channel Down has never been broken since and made a new Low this month.
What does this tell you? Keep investing in tech!
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NASDAQ Wait for the right sell entry at the top of the Wedge.Nasdaq is rising after the price found Support at the bottom of the Falling Wedge.
It is approaching the MA200 (4h) but the technical Resistance is inside the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the Falling Resistance.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell at 15170 (Fibonacci 0.618).
Targets:
1. 14900 (pull back to the MA50 4h).
Tips:
1. Only a crossing over Resistance (1) can restore the bullish trend. Until then the index may even turn sideways inside a Rectangle for a while.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
NQ | Neutral Intraday Bias on M15Remaining neutral for the night, NFP is in the morning. However, looking at a potential liquidity sweep during London Session. If the Sellside is taken into the Fair Value Gap, I will look to enter on the m1 if a Market Structure Shift occurs. Target will be the M15 Buyside liquidity.
NASDAQ Reality will soon hit those who bet against the market.Nasdaq (NDX) has been on a 3-month correction since its July High. No need to mention that this High almost touched its All Time High (ATH), almost recovering in less than 1 year the value lost in the Bear Cycle.
** 2010 Higher Lows and Megaphone **
The Higher Lows (dashed) trendline that has been in place since 2010 after the recovery from the 2008 - 2009 Housing Crisis started, held during the 2022 Inflation Bear Market and gave way to a Channel Up. We can claim that since mid-2018 the market entered into a Bullish Megaphone pattern and such Channel Up formations have been the common vessels to a Higher High.
** Uncertainty/ Doubt / Disbelief **
Similarly common have been minor (on a 1W scale) corrections such as the pull-back we are witnessing since July. During market uptrends, those are called 'Bull Flags'. Especially in the beginning of the recovery those are met with Uncertainty/ Doubt / Disbelief. For that reason the majority doesn't get in on the trend until it is well underway. Even the 1W RSI shows how consistent this Symmetrical Support Zone has been throughout all those Channels. Even the Higher Lows trend-line from May 2022 is still holding.
** First Bullish Cross since 2010 **
On top of all the above, Nasdaq is about to completed a 1W MA50 (blue trend-line)/ 1W MA100 (green trend-line) Bullish Cross, the first since February 2010 (which as mentioned is post Housing Crisis). The price will enter next week into green Ichimoku territory, which when formed indicates significant upside potential on a well establish bull trend.
We expect this to be the end of the 3-month correction and the resume of the uptrend. Based on the previous runs, NDX is aiming at 17800 towards the Christmas rally and 21500 in Q3 2024.
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NQ | Liquidity Sweep | ShortWaiting for the arrival of Buyside Liquidity to be taken, then on the m1, look for displacement in the opposing direction (Short). Ideally, this would setup a Fair Value Gap when it displaces, which I will use for entry.
Im overall short on NQ and anticipate that when the buyside is taken as liquidity (during London Session), it may also create the high of the day, continuing short in New York Session.
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Important Ranges for 6th October 2023Nasdaq Futures are range-bound. We have a Non-Farm payroll report coming in tomorrow. My bias is on the upside for tomorrow. Lets see what happens. Either ways we have to be ready for both sides which ever way the markets digest the data. Do not trade for the first hour for tomorrow since it will be volatile.