Black Friday saleUp to 70% OFF

NZD-USD

Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsNZD – The New Zealand dollar slipped on Wednesday after the country’s central bank hiked rates by less than hawks had wagered on, though it also lifted forecasts for how far rates would ultimately have to rise. Nevertheless, Kiwibank argues that the “move is consistent with the RBNZ’s already signaled measured approach to policy tightening, and it is already ahead of most central banks withdrawing policy stimulus.” Adding that, they now see rates at 2.5% by 2023.
by thunderpips
2
NZDUSD potential for dip |24th NovPrice is near sell entry price of 0.69568 which is also 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection . Price can potentially dip to the take profit level of 0.68612 which is also the graphical swing low level. Our bearish bias is supported by ichimoku cloud indicator as price is trading below it. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
1
NZDUSD potential for dip |24th NovPrice is trading in a descending channel and near sell entry price of 0.69568 which is also 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially dip to the take profit level of 0.68612 which is also the graphical swing low level. Our bearish bias is supported by ichimoku cloud indicator as price is trading below it. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
#NZDUSD approaching pivot, potential for rise!Price has broken above our pivot level at 0.69186 which is in line with , 100% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal swing low support . We could potentially see a further rise from here towards 0.70758, which coincides with 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level, 127.2% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap resistance. Finally, we can expect price to take support at 0.68606, which coincides with & horizontal overlap support . This is further supported by how price is likely to bounce off the Stochastic support level . Pivot: 0.69186 Why we like it: 100% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal swing low support 1st Support: 0.68606 & horizontal overlap support 1st Resistance: 0.70758 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level, 127.2% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap resistance Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
Long
by VantageMarkets
2
#NZDUSD approaching pivot, potential for rise! Price has broken above our pivot level at 0.69186 which is in line with , 100% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal swing low support . We could potentially see a further rise from here towards 0.70758, which coincides with 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level, 127.2% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap resistance. Finally, we can expect price to take support at 0.68606, which coincides with & horizontal overlap support . This is further supported by how price is likely to bounce off the Stochastic support level . Pivot: 0.69186 Why we like it: 100% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal swing low support 1st Support: 0.68606 & horizontal overlap support 1st Resistance: 0.70758 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level, 127.2% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap resistance Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
Long
by VantageMarkets
NZDUSD looking for the 0.69? 🦐NZDUSD on the 4h chart is testing a daily support. The price after the first bearish impulse tested perfectly the 0.382 level and move once again to the support providing a 2nd bounce to the 0.618 fib level. Now the price is testing again the support and according to Plancton's strategy if the market will break below and satisfy the ACADEMY conditions we will set a nice short order. ––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
2
Possible trend shift in NZDUSD – going short | 22nd Nov Signal ID: 78352 Time Issued: Monday, 22 November 2021 05:00:15 GMT Status: open Entry: 0.69884 - 0.70178 Limit: N/A Stop Loss: 0.70621 The Tidal Shift Strategy has just sold NZDUSD at 0.70031. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 0.69884 and 0.70178. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index has hit its most extreme positive level for the past 145 trading hours at 1.08469, which suggests that the NZDUSD could be trending downwards.The 14-period Average True Range on a daily chart is 0.00118, so the stop loss has been set at 0.70621. This stop loss order is a trailing stop that will move down as the market moves down. There is no profit target for this strategy. We expect to be closed by the stop loss.Tidal Shift is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The strategy looks to buy when the Speculative Sentiment Index reaches its lowest value for the past 145 trading hours, and looks to short when it reaches its highest value for the past 145 trading hours. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ In Oct the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD. There was additional focus on the RBNZ’s forecast of >4% in the near term. But the most important part of the statement was that the bank still sees CPI returning towards the 2% midpoint over the med-term and that ‘the current COVID-19-related restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment since the August Statement’. Thus, despite recent covid concerns, inflation concerns and energy concerns, that part of the statement acknowledged that nothing has changed in terms of the bank’s OCR projections released at the Aug meeting. Unsurprisingly, the bank also stated that their future rate path is contingent on the med-term outlook for CPI and employment, which means keeping close tabs on the data and covid will remain a key focus for us in the weeks and months ahead. With the bank now being the first to hike rates among the major central banks and sitting on the highest cash rate among the majors, and with an OCR projection that is still head and shoulders above the rest, the bias for the NZD remains bullish, and as rates keeps rising, the currency’s carry attractiveness will be a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead. The upcoming Nov meeting will be an important one so make sure to catch up for this in our Must-Read Section of the terminal. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments We heard some good news last week with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets or the RBNZ had expected and is part of the reason why some participants are looking for a 50bsp hike from the RBNZ this week. Whether 25 or 50, the chance for tradable volatility is definitely there this week. 4. CFTC Analysis (CFTC data delayed with Veteran’s Day) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -979 with a net non-commercial position of +12882. The NZD now reflects the 2nd biggest netlong positioning for large speculators as well as the biggest for leveraged funds. This is important to know going into the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday as it means the bar is higher for a big upside surprise compared to a big downside surprise. As long as the bank doesn’t downgrade their OCR projections, the carry component of the NZ cash rate will be an important driver to watch in the year ahead. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED Another bank that was hawkish in deed by dovish in word in their Nov policy decision. The Fed official announced tapering as expected, with purchases said to be reduced this month at a pace of $10bln in Treasuries and $5bln in MBS per month and explained that a mid-2022 conclusion is still their base case. There were also some hawkish language changes about inflation, with the bank dropping previous comments that called inflation transitory and replacing it with ‘expected to be transitory’, basically leaving some optionality to pivot more aggressively with tapering should price pressures stay sticky for too long. However, Fed Chair Powell did a really good job to put on a familiar dovish front by explaining that they see the current price pressures as driven by supply bottlenecks and still see those pressures cooling down in in 1H22, essentially giving themselves half a year of ‘tolerating’ the current inflation overshoot. Apart from that, Chair Powell explained that they would need to see maximum employment before their conditions for a lift off in rates would be met, and also explained that it’s likely that full employment could be reached by mid-2022. That endorsed the idea that a 2h22 hike is possible, but the Chair refused to provide any idea of what maximum employment would look like. On the rate front, Powell also explained that they think they can be patient with rates right now as they want more time to see in what shape the economy is in after the current covid shocks have calmed and after bottlenecks have eased. Overall, a policy meeting that was hawkish in their actions but dovish in their words. 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the cards, further material downside in real yields looks like a struggle, and upside from here should be supportive for the USD. However, we are growing cautious of nominal yields right now, with possible downside risks brewing it means real yields could continue to drift lower, which have not yet hurt the greenback, but is something to keep on the radar. 3. The global risk outlook One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, there has been a growing chorus of market participants looking for a possible bounce in growth data in Q4 after the covid and supply chain related slowdown in Q3. If we do indeed see a pickup in growth, while inflation is still elevated, that would mean a reflationary environment, which is usually a negative input for the Dollar, so we want to keep that in mind when assessing the incoming US and global economic data in the next few weeks. Especially with last week’s covid fears, any downgrades to growth expectations should support the Dollar from a safe haven perspective. 4. Economic Data Fed speak will be in focus in the week ahead, after the comments from Fed’s Clarida on Friday where he explained there is scope for a discussion Dec surrounding the possibility of an increase in the tapering pace. Even though that is not our base case right now, any further confirmation of this type of tone and rhetoric could be a sign that the median FOMC is moving towards upping the pace (which should be USD positive). 5. CFTC Analysis (CFTC data delayed with Veteran’s Day) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +466 with a net non-commercial position of +35448. Positioning isn’t anywhere near stress levels for the USD, but the speed of the build-up in large speculator positioning has been sizeable in a short space of time. Thus, even though the med-term bias remains unchanged, it does mean the USD could be sensitive to mean reversion risks, especially trading at YTD highs.
by thunderpips
NZDUSD short running 📉🏃Using the POW reversal strategy on this pair. Trade details can be found on the chart. We are working the 20M time frame on this strategy. We're looking for the green line which is take profit target. Little red arrow is entry point and purple line is stop loss. Previous trades can be seen on chart also. As with every idea trade history and log can be seen at the foot of this trade idea too for full transparency. The report box tabs when pressed show all you need to know about the strategy performance. You as the viewer of this idea can also do that so go ahead and have a play. ------------------------------------------ I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily. Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way. ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren
Short
by pow_removetheguesswork
3
#NZDUSD approaching pivot, potential for rise! | 18th NovPrice has broken above our pivot level at 0.70218 which is in line with , 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap support . We could potentially see a further rise from here towards 0.70942, which coincides with 100% Fibonacci extension level, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap resistance. Finally, we can expect price to take support at 0.69804, which coincides with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, 100% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap support . This is further supported by how price is likely to bounce off the RSI support level . Pivot: 0.70218 Why we like it: , 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap support 1st Support: 0.69804 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, 100% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap support 1st Resistance: 0.70942 100% Fibonacci extension level, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap resistance Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Possible trend shift in NZDUSD – going shortSignal ID: 78293 Time Issued: Wednesday, 17 November 2021 01:00:15 GMT Status: open Entry: 0.69764 - 0.70022 Limit: N/A Stop Loss: 0.70409 The Tidal Shift Strategy has just sold NZDUSD at 0.69893. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 0.69764 and 0.70022. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index has hit its most extreme positive level for the past 145 trading hours at -1.12521, which suggests that the NZDUSD could be trending downwards.The 14-period Average True Range on a daily chart is 0.00103, so the stop loss has been set at 0.70409. This stop loss order is a trailing stop that will move down as the market moves down. There is no profit target for this strategy. We expect to be closed by the stop loss.Tidal Shift is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The strategy looks to buy when the Speculative Sentiment Index reaches its lowest value for the past 145 trading hours, and looks to short when it reaches its highest value for the past 145 trading hours. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website
Short
by FXCM
Possible trend shift in NZDUSD – going shortSignal ID: 78293 Time Issued: Wednesday, 17 November 2021 01:00:15 GMT Status: open Entry: 0.69764 - 0.70022 Limit: N/A Stop Loss: 0.70409 The Tidal Shift Strategy has just sold NZDUSD at 0.69893. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 0.69764 and 0.70022. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index has hit its most extreme positive level for the past 145 trading hours at -1.12521, which suggests that the NZDUSD could be trending downwards.The 14-period Average True Range on a daily chart is 0.00103, so the stop loss has been set at 0.70409. This stop loss order is a trailing stop that will move down as the market moves down. There is no profit target for this strategy. We expect to be closed by the stop loss.Tidal Shift is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The strategy looks to buy when the Speculative Sentiment Index reaches its lowest value for the past 145 trading hours, and looks to short when it reaches its highest value for the past 145 trading hours. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website
Short
by Rockqet
#NZDUSD approaching pivot, potential for a drop! Price is reacting below our pivot level at 0.70778 which is in line with 100% Fibonacci extension level, 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap resistance. Price can potentially take support at 0.69804, which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, 61.8% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap support. Alternatively, price may rise up to our resistance at 0.71353, which coincides with 127.2% Fibonacci extension level, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap resistance . This is further supported by how price is likely to reverse off the Stochastic resistance level. Pivot: 0.70778 Why we like it: 100% Fibonacci extension level, 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap resistance 1st Support: 0.69804 Why we like it: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, 61.8% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap support 1st Resistance: 0.71353 Why we like it: 127.2% Fibonacci extension level, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap resistance Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
Short
by VantageMarkets
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ At their Oct meeting, the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was already fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones we saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD pushing lower. There was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting headline CPI to climb above 4 percent in the near term, but the most important part of the statement was the subsequent comment that the bank still sees CPI returning towards the 2 percent midpoint over the medium term and that ‘the current COVID-19-related restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment since the August Statement’. Thus, despite recent covid concerns, inflation concerns and energy concerns, that part of the statement acknowledged that nothing has changed in terms of the bank’s OCR projections released at the August meeting. Unsurprisingly, the bank also stated that their future rate path is contingent on the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment, which means keeping close tabs on incoming data and the virus situation will remain a key focus for us in the weeks and months ahead. With the bank now being the first to hike rates among the major central banks and sitting on the highest cash rate among the majors, and with an OCR projection that is still head and shoulders above the rest, the bias for the NZD remains firmly titled to the upside, and as rates keeps rising, the currency’s carry attractiveness will be a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments Virus cases can still have an impact on NZD sentiment, which means the fact that NZ virus cases is at record high levels is something to pay attention to. For now, it’s had very limited impact on the NZD due to the NZ government abandoning their covid-zero strategy and since virus risks have been downplayed by the RBNZ, but further escalation leading to more lockdowns will be important to keep on the radar. 4. CFTC Analysis (CFTC data delayed with Veteran’s Day) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +4955 with a net non-commercial position of +13861. The NZD reflects net-long positioning for both large speculators as well as leveraged funds but are nowhere near stress levels right now. With the NZD now sitting on the highest cash rate among the major economies and with expectations of that to continue to rise we think carry attractiveness will become a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead and should mean a favourable upside bias for the NZD against the low yielders like JPY and CHF. In the shortterm though, risk sentiment will be important as always, and also watching for potential cross flow influences from AUDNZD movements. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED Another bank that was hawkish in deed by dovish in word in their Nov policy decision. The Fed official announced tapering as expected, with purchases said to be reduced this month at a pace of $10bln in Treasuries and $5bln in MBS per month and explained that a mid-2022 conclusion is still their base case. There were also some hawkish language changes about inflation, with the bank dropping previous comments that called inflation transitory and replacing it with ‘expected to be transitory’, basically leaving some optionality to pivot more aggressively with tapering should price pressures stay sticky for too long. However, Fed Chair Powell did a really good job to put on a familiar dovish front by explaining that they see the current price pressures as driven by supply bottlenecks and still see those pressures cooling down in in 1H22, essentially giving themselves half a year of ‘tolerating’ the current inflation overshoot. Apart from that, Chair Powell explained that they would need to see maximum employment before their conditions for a lift off in rates would be met, and also explained that it’s likely that full employment could be reached by mid-2022. That endorsed the idea that a 2h22 hike is possible, but the Chair refused to provide any idea of what maximum employment would look like. On the rate front, Powell also explained that they think they can be patient with rates right now as they want more time to see in what shape the economy is in after the current covid shocks have calmed and after bottlenecks have eased. Overall, a policy meeting that was hawkish in their actions but dovish in their words. 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the cards, further material downside in real yields looks like a struggle, and upside from here should support the Dollar. However, we are growing cautious of nominal yields right now, with possible downside risks brewing it means real yields could continue to drift lower, which have not yet hurt the greenback, but is something to keep on the radar. 3. The global risk outlook One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, there has been a growing chorus of market participants looking for a possible bounce in growth data in Q4 after the covid and supply chain related slowdown in Q3. If we do indeed see a pickup in growth, while inflation is still elevated, that would mean a reflationary environment, which is usually a negative input for the Dollar, so we want to keep that in mind when assessing the incoming US economic data in the next few weeks. 4. Economic Data Fed speak will be in focus in the week ahead, after the surprise CPI beat last week. Furthermore, markets will be looking at US Retail Sales to gauge how the consumer has been holding up after rising price pressures and after consumer sentiment took a knock in last week’s data. 5. CFTC Analysis (CFTC data delayed with Veteran’s Day) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +525 with a net non-commercial position of +34982. Positioning isn’t anywhere near stress levels for the USD, but the speed of the build-up in large specular positioning has been sizeable in a short space of time. Thus, even though the med-term bias remains unchanged, it does mean the USD could be sensitive to mean reversion risks, especially trading at YTD highs.
by thunderpips
2
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ At their Oct meeting, the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was already fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones we saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD pushing lower. There was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting headline CPI to climb above 4 percent in the near term, but the most important part of the statement was the subsequent comment that the bank still sees CPI returning towards the 2 percent midpoint over the medium term and that ‘the current COVID-19-related restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment since the August Statement’. Thus, despite recent covid concerns, inflation concerns and energy concerns, that part of the statement acknowledged that nothing has changed in terms of the bank’s OCR projections released at the August meeting. Unsurprisingly, the bank also stated that their future rate path is contingent on the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment, which means keeping close tabs on incoming data and the virus situation will remain a key focus for us in the weeks and months ahead. With the bank now being the first to hike rates among the major central banks and sitting on the highest cash rate among the majors, and with an OCR projection that is still head and shoulders above the rest, the bias for the NZD remains firmly titled to the upside, and as rates keeps rising, the currency’s carry attractiveness will be a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments Virus cases can still have an impact on NZD sentiment, which means the fact that NZ virus cases is at record high levels is something to pay attention to. For now, it’s had very limited impact on the NZD due to the NZ government abandoning their covid-zero strategy and since virus risks have been downplayed by the RBNZ, but further escalation leading to more lockdowns will be important to keep on the radar. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +4955 with a net non-commercial position of +13861. The NZD reflects net-long positioning for both large speculators as well as leveraged funds but are nowhere near stress levels right now. With the NZD now sitting on the highest cash rate among the major economies and with expectations of that to continue to rise we think carry attractiveness will become a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead and should mean a favourable upside bias for the NZD against the low yielders like JPY and CHF. In the shortterm though, as we mentioned above, the virus situation could see some of the recent upside given back, and also keep overall risk sentiment in mind which saw the NZD failing to benefit from the stellar quarterly jobs data released last week USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED Another bank that was hawkish in deed by dovish in word in their Nov policy decision. The Fed official announced tapering as expected, with purchases said to be reduced this month at a pace of $10bln in Treasuries and $5bln in MBS per month and explained that a mid-2022 conclusion is still their base case. There were also some hawkish language changes about inflation , with the bank dropping previous comments that called inflation transitory and replacing it with ‘expected to be transitory’, basically leaving some optionality to pivot more aggressively with tapering should price pressures stay sticky for too long. However, Fed Chair Powell did a really good job to put on a familiar dovish front by explaining that they see the current price pressures as driven by supply bottlenecks and still see those pressures cooling down in in 1H22, essentially giving themselves half a year of ‘tolerating’ the current inflation overshoot. Apart from that, Chair Powell explained that they would need to see maximum employment before their conditions for a lift off in rates would be met, and also explained that its likely that full employment could be reached by mid-2022. That endorsed the idea that a 2h22 hike is possible, but the Chair refused to provide any idea of what maximum employment would look like. On the rate front, Powell also explained that they think they can be patient with rates right now as they want more time to see in what shape the economy is in after the current covid shocks have calmed and after bottlenecks have eased. Overall, a policy meeting that was hawkish in their actions but dovish in their words. 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the card, we think further downside in real yields will be a struggle and the probability are skewed higher given the outlook for growth, inflation and policy, and higher real yields should be supportive for the USD in the med-term . 3. The global risk outlook One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, there has been a growing chorus of market participants looking for a possible bounce in growth data in Q4 after the covid and supply chain related slowdown in Q3. If we do indeed see a pickup in growth, while inflation is still elevated, that would mean a reflationary environment, which is usually a negative input for the Dollar, so we want to keep that in mind when assessing the incoming US economic data in the next few weeks. 4. Economic Data With the FOMC in the mix, the other economic data points largely took a back seat this past week, with even NFP not really creating a lot of meaningful or sustainable volatility . We did however see a late session sell-off in the Dollar, which was arguably more driven by technical factors as the Dollar topped out at key technical resistance and could also have been some profit taking after the recent push higher. This upcoming week’s main economic event will be Oct CPI and will be an event worth keeping on the radar after this past week’s FOMC. 5. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +525 with a net non-commercial position of +34982. Positioning isn’t anywhere near stress levels for the USD, but the speed of the build-up in large specular positioning has been sizeable on a 1-year look back period. Thus, even though the med-term bias remains unchanged, it does mean the USD could be sensitive to mean reversion risks just like we saw on Friday while we are still trading close to YTD highs.
by thunderpips
2
NZDUSD potential for reversal | 11 NovPrice is near buy entry price of 0.70231 which is 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection . Price can potentially go to the take profit price of 0.70818 which is 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection . Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator as it is near support level . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website
Long
by FXCM
1
#NZDUSD approaching pivot, potential for a drop! Price is reacting below our pivot level at 0.70218 which is in line with 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap support. Price can potentially take support at 0.6984, which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, 100% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap support. Alternatively, price may rise up to our resistance at 0.70942, which coincides with 100% Fibonacci extension level, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap resistance . This is further supported by how price is now holding below the Ichimoku cloud resistance. Pivot: 0.70218 Why we like it: 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap support 1st Support: 0.69840 Why we like it: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, 100% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap support 1st Resistance: 0.70942 Why we like it: 100% Fibonacci extension level, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap resistance Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
Short
by VantageMarkets
NZDUSD potential for reversal | 11 NovPrice is near buy entry price of 0.70231 which is 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially go to the take profit price of 0.70818 which is 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator as it is near support level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website
Long
by Rockqet