Did you miss out on the surprise NZD/USD trade? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points, sending the New Zealand dollar plunging by 1% against the U.S. dollar. The move caught markets off guard, as most analysts had anticipated the central bank would hold rates steady until at least its next meeting. Today wasn’t supposed to be the day, but these are the moments traders eagerly anticipate to capitalize on sudden market shifts.
The RBNZ's decision underscores a growing trend among central banks, signaling a potential global shift in monetary policy. This early rate cut hints that central banks may be increasingly focused on fostering economic growth and ensuring a soft landing amid weakening economies. The big question now: Will the Federal Reserve follow suit?
The NZD/USD had been on an upward trajectory for nearly two weeks, but that rally has now reversed. The pair has broken above the 200-day moving average and is nearing the 50-day as well. The key support zone around 0.5850, which has held since last September, could now be in play, with a closer pivot point near 0.5980.
NZDUSD
NZDUSD: Market of Buyers
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the NZDUSD pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move up.
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Market Analysis: NZD/USD Trims GainsMarket Analysis: NZD/USD Trims Gains
NZD/USD is trimming gains and struggling to stay above the 0.6000 pivot zone.
Important Takeaways for NZD/USD Analysis Today
- NZD/USD is declining from the 0.6080 resistance zone.
- There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6010 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair started a steady increase from the 0.6000 zone. The New Zealand Dollar broke the 0.6035 resistance to start the recent increase against the US Dollar.
The pair climbed above 0.6060 and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the 0.6080 zone and is currently correcting gains. The pair corrected lower below the 0.6060 level. The pair also traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 0.5988 swing low to the 0.6081 high.
The NZD/USD chart suggests that the RSI is now well below 50 and signaling more downsides. On the downside, there is major support forming near 0.6010 and a trend line.
The trend line is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 0.5988 swing low to the 0.6081 high. The next major support is near the 0.5990 level.
If there is a downside break below the 0.5990 support, the pair might slide toward the 0.5980 support. Any more losses could lead NZD/USD in a bearish zone to 0.5950.
On the upside, the pair might struggle near 0.6035. The next major resistance is near the 0.6060 level. A clear move above the 0.6060 level might even push the pair toward the 0.6080 level. Any more gains might clear the path for a move toward the 0.6200 resistance zone in the coming days.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST AUG 12-16: USD EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF JPYThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast for AUG 12-16th.
In this video, we will cover:
USD Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY
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Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
RBNZ Cuts, UK CPI Slows, US CPI Pending14th August
DXY: CPI data pending (below 3%), break below 102.50 could trade down to 102 support level.
NZDUSD: Buy 0.5990 SL 20 TP 90
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6660 SL 30 TP 60
GBPUSD: Buy 1.2875 SL 25 TP 60
EURUSD: Buy 1.1025 SL 30 TP 100
USDJPY: Sell 146.20 SL 40 TP 200 (needs to stay below 148)
USDCHF: Sell 0.8625 SL 30 TP 60
USDCAD: Sell 1.3700 SL 20 TP 45
Gold: Climbing higher, above 2475 will see 2480, beyond that will see 2500
NZDUSD Is Looking For A Bigger RecoveryLooking at the 4-hour time frame of the Kiwi with ticker NZDUSD, we can see a strong rebound after a completed final subwave “v” of C of (C), as Zealand beat jobs data, so seems like a new three-wave A-B-C rally can be in play within higher degree wave (D) that can recover the price back to the upper triangle line. Wave A looks to be finished after RNBZ delivers surprise 25 BPS rate cut to 5.25% today, so seems like it’s now making a pullback in wave B that can retest 0.59x support area before a continuation higher for wave C towards 0.61 – 0.62 resistance zone.
NZD/USD Plunges Following RBNZ DecisionNZD/USD Plunges Following RBNZ Decision
The exchange rate fell by 1.1% after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25% and signalled further easing.
According to RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr:
→ Inflation is returning to the target range, and the bank may begin normalising rates;
→ Several scenarios were considered, and consensus was reached for a 25 basis point rate cut;
→ Forecasts indicate that New Zealand is moving towards a period of low and stable inflation;
→ The economy is meeting expectations, although high-frequency data show some weakening.
The rate cut decision was somewhat unexpected, as the RBNZ had previously forecast that the rate-cutting cycle would start later. This has resulted in increased volatility in the NZD/USD chart today.
According to technical analysis of the NZD/USD chart:
→ In August, the price formed an ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ Yesterday, a bearish Double Top pattern emerged above the upper boundary of the channel—this was a warning signal for bulls, considering that the RSI indicator was in overbought territory;
→ The RBNZ decision pushed the price to the channel’s median, which is acting as support.
It is possible that the median may be breached by bears and the decline could continue. If so, support may be anticipated at the psychological level of 0.600 and the 0.598 level, which acted as resistance in early August before switching roles.
Much of the future direction of the NZD/USD rate will depend on news from the US: today, at 15:30 GMT+3, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will be released.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NZDUSD Have Formed A Decent Down Trend Align With USD StrengthHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NZDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.60400 zone, NZDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.60400 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GBPUSD and NZDUSD news trading strategy!Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
NZDUSD Will Go Down! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for NZDUSD.
Time Frame: 3h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 0.604.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 0.600 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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Keep your eyes on the RBNZ rate decision!Expect some action after the RBNZ rate decision.
Watch the video for more details.
FX_IDC:NZDUSD EASYMARKETS:NZDUSD
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EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD levels into US PPI, CPI and RBNZTwo key inflation reports for the US and a potentially live RBNZ meeting over the next 24 hours has put EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD onto my radar. And in each case, these markets have risen to interesting levels which hint at a weaker US dollar over the near-term. Part of this may be because traders are front-running weaker US inflation data.
If the RBNZ treat markets to a dovish cut, it could make for the more volatile move out of the three pairs, whereas weaker US PPI and CPI could help EUR/USD have another crack at breaking above 1.10.
NZDUSD | 15m Trade Plan | Intraday15m current market condition : Took entire buy-side liquidity
During killzones:
Plan A : Take a short position after a 15m bearish confirmation.
Plan B : After inducement is taken, take a long position following a 15m bullish confirmation.
Plan C : Wait for the entire sell-side liquidity sweep, then take a long position based on a 15m bullish confirmation.
note : It's more likely that the marked demand zone will not be respected by the upcoming market session(s).
NZDUSD Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on NZDUSD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 0.6025 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 0.5970
Safe Stop Loss - 0.6055
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Second Attempt at Shorting NZDUSDI’m back at it with a second attempt to short NZDUSD, and here’s why this setup caught my attention.
Current Overview:
- 4-Hourly Chart:
i) Rising Channel: The pair is moving within a rising channel.
ii) RSI Divergence: This divergence signals a potential weakening of the uptrend, which adds confidence to the short setup.
Shorting Opportunity:
- 1-Hourly Chart:
i) Type 2 Bearish Shark Pattern: This pattern gave me a solid entry at 0.6029.
Strategy:
- 1st Target:
i) Extended to: 0.5992
ii) Why: The market reversed beyond the original 1st target, allowing me to extend it for better profit potential.
- 2nd Target: Keeping it open to adjust based on how the market moves.
Final Thoughts:
This setup combines a classic RSI divergence with a well-defined Bearish Shark Pattern, making it a compelling opportunity for a second short attempt. If you’re considering a similar trade, keep an eye on the targets and be ready to adapt as the market unfolds.
What’s your take on this setup? Have you noticed similar patterns in your trading? Share your thoughts and strategies below!
Happy trading, everyone! 🚀
Levels discussed on Livestream 12th August 12th August
DXY: Likely to consolidate above 103, if broken, could retest 102 support level.
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5960 SL 25 TP 65
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6610 SL 40 TP 70
GBPUSD: Buy 1.2790 SL 30 TP 65
EURUSD: Buy 1.0950 SL 25 TP 50
USDJPY: Sell 145 SL 70 TP 300
USDCHF: Look for reaction at resistance of 0.8750
USDCAD: Sell 1.3710 SL 20 TP 55
Gold: Broke above 2434 (61.8%) could trade up to 2450, beyond that could see 2480
NZD/USD BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are going short on the NZD/USD with the target of 0.592 level, because the pair is overbought and will soon hit the resistance line above. We deduced the overbought condition from the price being near to the upper BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is green and gives us a counter-signal.
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NZDUSD..BUYAfter the price reaches the specified level,
Enter the buy deal with the Hammer candle or Ingulf candle signal
Consider your risk management before entering a trade.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
All consequences of using this signal are at your own risk.
NZDUSD Will Go Higher! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for NZDUSD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 0.599.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 0.601.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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