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NZDUSD

Hawkish RBNZ meeting buoys NZDUSDThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has warned about high domestic inflation despite having one of the highest interest rates among major central banks. The committee discussed raising rates but acknowledged that the economy can't handle it. As a result, markets have postponed expectations of a rate cut to November. The NZD/USD has been steadily rising since April, even after breaking above the longer-term trendline resistance. While the Kiwi dollar is approaching overbought conditions, there is still potential for short-term gains. The next major resistance level is at 0.6200, but first, a test of yesterday's high at 0.6152 is needed. If there is a pullback, prices could settle around the 0.6050 level, which aligns with the 200 SMA.
by Xayah_trading
Kiwi Upside Bias Strengthened after Hawkish RBNZThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a hawkish hold on Wednesday, as it raised the OCR forecast to 5.7%, leaving room for further tightening. Policymakers believe that longer restriction may be needed to achieve the 1-3% inflation target and also upgraded their forecast, expecting CPI to fall less and slower than previously thought. The US Fed meanwhile has adopted a cautious stance towards removing monetary restraint, due to stubborn inflation this year, strong economy and robust labor market. The central bank is still widely expected to lower rates this year though. Most commentary - including from Chair Powell - has dismissed prospects of rate hikes, pointing to the need that sustained restrictive stance to control inflation. The monetary policy differential favors the Kiwi, since RBNZ has kept more tightening in play, whereas its US counterpart has hinted to cuts. NZD/USD is on the driver’s seat with the ability to tackle 0.6219, although news 2024 highs, but further gains towards 0.6412 have higher degree of difficulty. On the other hand, the Fed’s apprehension provides support to the greenback and this can create pressure back toward the EMA200 (black line). Daily closes below it would pause the upside bias, but sustained weakness below it does not look easy – fundamentally and technically as the daily Ichimoku looms. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Long
by FXCM
Kiwi H4 | Potential bullish bounceThe Kiwi (NZD/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 0.6089 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 0.6060 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support. Take profit is at 0.6152 which is a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
Strifor || USDCAD-22/05/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: After another price fixation at the level of 1.36000, we are again considering an approach to this level through two scenarios. It should be noted that a fall below 1.36000 is not expected, so it will be very important to exit on time. The most likely scenario №1 involves a fall actually from current prices near the level of 1.36557 . Scenario №2 is more conservative, but at the same time less likely today, which involves a fall from the level of 1.37020. In general, most likely in the short term, the main competitors of the US dollar will strengthen their positions, however, considering the more global picture, there is a high probability that the US currency will win back all its lost positions. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Strifor || NZDUSD-21/05/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: The bullish mood remains for the New Zealand dollar. We will most likely see growth here in the very near future. The focus is on level 0.61670 , which is expected to be broken in the very near future. However, the price is unlikely to go too high given the prevailing technical factors. Therefore, it is preferable to take profits near this resistance, despite the slightly greater potential that this instrument may show. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Strifor || AUDUSD-21/05/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: The currency pair continues to trade above the level of 0.66460 , and at the beginning of this week, we maintain our buy priority for this instrument, as well as the scenario. Today, both scenarios are relevant, and until the support level of 0.66460 is broken down by sellers, the bullish mood will persist. It should be noted that the goal should not be set too high. The area 0.67500-0.68000 is the growth ceiling. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Missed the NZD trade? What's next? As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept interest rates unchanged yesterday but did provide some surprises to the market; extending the timeline for a potential rate cut, and even noted its consideration of a rate hike. This unexpectedly hawkish stance sent the NZDUSD higher. Before the announcement, markets saw an ~80% chance of a rate cut by November, but this probability has now dropped to ~50%. Despite this, bullish momentum seemed capped. After probing above 0.6117 several times (with diminishing conviction), buyers turned into sellers. Governor Orr's comments during the post-decision press conference were perceived as slightly less hawkish, which helped push the price back down. Additionally, over in the US, minutes from the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting ending May 1 showed that while participants felt the policy was “well positioned,” several officials expressed a willingness to tighten policy further if necessary. If the price declines, the next key target could be the 100-day moving average at 0.60712, which coincides with a 50% Fibonacci retracement level. However, support is potentially located at .6083 before this, with resistance kicking in at the session high above .6150.
by BlackBull_Markets
NZDUSD:Hawkish RBNZ and Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NZDUSD for a buying opportunity around 0.60750 zone, NZDUSD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.60750 support and resistance area. Last night the RBNZ did consider raising rates which should give a boost to the kiwi meanwhile on the other hand the macro environment of the dollar is soft after the current progression of CPI in the US. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
NZD/USD steady ahead of RBNZ rate announcementThe New Zealand dollar is almost unchanged on Tuesday. NZD/USD is down 0.06%, trading at 0.6102 in the European session at the time of writing. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has shown it can be patient, having held the cash rate at 4.35% for six straight times. The central bank is expected to maintain rates yet again at Wednesday’s meeting as inflation has remained stubbornly high. Inflation has been moving lower and fell to 4% in the first quarter, down from 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, this remains double the midpoint of the 1-3% target range and is too high for the RBNZ to start trimming rates in the near-term. At the same time, economic data for the first quarter was soft which should result in disinflation. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in the first quarter, private wage growth decelerated and GDP contracted by 0.1% q/q. The RBNZ had its mandate limited to inflation in December; previously, the central bank was mandated to maintain low inflation and full employment. Still, the strength of the labor market and wage growth will be eyed by the central bank as it determines its rate policy. The Federal Reserve continues to sound hawkish about rate policy and remains cautious about rate cuts. On Monday, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said that it was too early to tell if the downtrend in inflation would be “long lasting”. Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michael Barr said that first-quarter inflation data was disappointing and was not supportive of easing monetary policy. For a second straight day, there are no US economic releases and we’ll hear from a host of FOMC members, which could provide insights about the Fed’s rate policy plans. NZD/USD is tested support at 0.6089 earlier . Below, there is support at 0.6039 0.6185 and 0.6235 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Potential bullish bounce off 38.2% Fibonacci support?NZD/USD is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 0.5074 1st Support: 0.6038 1st Resistance: 0.6138 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
NZDUSD to find buyers at market price?NZDUSD - 24h expiry There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end. Although we remain bullish overall, a correction is possible with plenty of room to move lower without impacting the trend higher. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 0.6125 will confirm the bullish momentum. The measured move target is 0.6175. We look to Buy at 0.6100 (stop at 0.6075) Our profit targets will be 0.6160 and 0.6175 Resistance: 0.61250 / 0.6150 / 0.6175 Support: 0.6100 / 0.6075 / 0.6050 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
Continuation for Kiwi Ahead Of RBNZ?Kiwi showed a robust continuation candle last week on the daily chart. The price recovered above the 0.6085 resistance level and finished the week above the 0.61 area, suggesting a potential continuation pattern unfolding in the middle of an impulsive recovery. This week, the Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision is anticipated, and they are not expected to implement any cuts this year. Their relatively "not dovish" stance might keep the pair in recovery mode, especially considering the recent downside movement in US yields that was bullish for USD, and the positive performance of stocks. Higher stock prices and risk-on flows could be supportive for Kiwi. A closer look at the Elliott wave structure indicates the possibility of at least one more push higher, potentially reaching up to the 0.6200 area for wave C/3.
Long
by ew-forecast